Fantasy Football - Trade Targets + Dynasty Mistakes - Podcast for 5/12

He's entering year nine. This is such a good call, Mike. And he like here. Since when is it worth trading away like a veteran star that went to Buffalo to acquire something better? Exactly. That's it's shout out of Mari Cooper. You got me everything. This is not the. I'm DJ Moore. I will be productive on this team. Like he will. He will give you. fantasy points this year it's just about his what will he actually give you versus what someone in your league is going to believe about him he's on the buffalo bills you know it's like you guys go to the bills or the chiefs and we still automatically launch them to the moon for fantasy purposes even though you know we've been disappointed far more than we have hit on guys like rishi rice uh but so in in in 2024

Allen became the first top five fantasy quarterback without a top 36 scoring wide receiver. You feel like, well, DJ Moore can come in and do that. Sure, he can be in the top 36. But the point is, Josh Allen gets things done without having to hyper focus on a single target. In 2025, DJ Moore set career lows in a number of categories. We're talking receptions, receiving yards. Yards per route run down at 1.33 and... Forced miss tackles. DJ Moore, the elusive, very slippery, like makes things happen with the ball in his hands. He forced four miss tackles. Like the yards after contact, it has just, it was not there this past year. So I'm on the side of, I don't think it automatically bounces back for DJ Moore. I think that last year was more of an indication that we're coming to the end. You know, like wide receivers, as I said, the age.

He's at that age, too, where things can go south real, real fast. And he's 29. He's changing locations. We've looked at fantasy players who have changed teams in year nine. There is one hit. Like, guys, it didn't work. Randall Cobb, Marvin Jones, Alan Robinson, Beckham, Cooper Cup. The one hit, Devante Adams. You don't want to know why? 180 targets. I'm not expecting 180 targets to come through here for DJ Moore. So if I can trade him away and start getting ready for the future, I would rather do that than have him expiring on my team. I feel like if you have DJ Moore, you have to be trying to trade him away. Imagine what happened before this bill's trade. You have a 29-year-old wide receiver who looks like he's done, going to give you nothing. You couldn't get any value for him. The trade to Buffalo is like, oh my gosh. Yeah, the window. I got, I hit the jackpot, not because you get.

that version of DJ Moore, but because now you can, now you can actually sell him and cash in get some, get some youth there because I don't think this is a, I don't think he's going to be bad on Buffalo, but he's not going to be pushing someone over the top to a championship right now. I mean, the one guy that succeeded in that transfer was a true alpha number one that hadn't ever left that, you know, being that for his franchise. DJ Moore has made the migration from the focal point of offenses to an ancillary piece of offenses. in the last handful of years being used in the backfield. I don't know why, like, why is he not used downfield that much? He ends up making these big downfield plays, but it's not that much, not like it used to be in Carolina. He's definitely gone to this place of like, I'm a piece of the offense, I'm not the whole offense. But you could make the argument that because the names in Buffalo are so bad around him, that you can be like, he's just the one. And that he's not. They only added Skyler Bell in the fourth round. So it's like he is, he should be the de facto.

number one wide receiver, but what does that, does that even get you into the top 20? I don't think it will. I mean, the worst case scenario when you trade DJ Moore is that he has a pretty good year and then stinks next year. Right, yeah. I mean, that's kind of the worst case scenario. You're near the beginning of the end. If you can get a 27 first for DJ Moore. Yeah. If you can find someone to give that up thinking they've got a superstar with Josh Allen, I would pull the trigger. My trade four candidate. Okay. is going to be Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The horse boy. The time is now for too long. Last year, I mean, sometimes you have to just go back and read the full stat line of the previous year to reset what they accomplished. Jason obviously didn't do that with Drake May, otherwise he wouldn't have ranked them the way he did. But Trevor Lawrence.

had 4,000 yards, 29 touchdowns, and nine rushing touchdowns last year on this team. Because he's a horse. He's out of the stables. Quarterbacks with 4,000 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and nine rushing touchdowns in the same year. It's only been two. Josh Allen in 2023 and Trevor Lawrence last year. He became a true goal line runner. This team keeps acquiring additional running back pieces that aren't quite everything. Chris Rodriguez. Bachel Tootin. Now they added Amir Abdullah. Trevor Lawrence's role around the goal line. I think they learned something last year. I love Liam Cohen's offense. And if you look at him as a passer, he still has room to take another step. I think there's going to be a lot of opinions. I think Mike has some of them. What they accomplished last year is going to be tough to repeat. I love the weapons that they have. His yards per pass attempt was in line with his career average. That wasn't a weird outlier. His touchdown rate was 5.2%. That wasn't crazy, slightly above league average.

He threw 12 interceptions. That was the fifth most in the league. He could improve that by one or two at least. And 8.6% of his passes were dropped. The whole story of Brian Thomas Jr. was how incompetent he was. It wasn't Lawrence's incompetence that made Brian Thomas Jr. bad. It was that BTJ literally dropped the ball. That is the highest rate over the last four years in terms of percentage of passes dropped. And he put up the season the kind of season he just had. They lost Travis Hunter through the year, which I don't know if you've seen the most.

recent interview with their general manager. I did. It's still. And he came out and he said, I still hear what I'm hearing. He came out and said he's going to be used on offense. Yes. That was, again, that's never the question. It was, but then he's like, I think that what will change is the uptick at cornerback. Right. And he will play cornerback. An uptick at cornerback to me means a downtick. Well, they tried to ask him that directly and he said, no, it doesn't mean that at all. So whether he's lying or not, we'll see. But Parker Washington emerged over the back half of the year. Britain Strange was hurt for half of the year. This offense with and because of the evolution of Trevor Lawrence and because of Liam Cohen's presence, to me it checks tons of boxes for your Dynasty League. Young quarterback in his prime runs the football on a good offense, best play caller, and probably being undervalued in trade circles because there are younger, sexier names. And Trevor Lawrence, we've been around the block and been annoyed for so long in Dynasty.

You have to make the choice now in Dynasty whether you believe he's leveled up and his situation is great. I believe he's made that change. I think you can get him cheaper than you normally could get a QB that I think is a top six Dynasty QB. I'm not as bullish as you are, but I'm like if I had to make a choice, I'd say I'm more on your side of it. I factor Baker Mayfields two years ago when he was with Cohen. I take that as. like part of the sample size for Trevor Lawrence of how all the sudden Baker's like got all these rushing touchdowns well all the sudden Trevor Lawrence has all these rushing touchdowns and they're just having you know their best year with with this guy and it was only his first year in the system it took to him didn't leave Lawrence like he left Baker it took till the second part of the year but it in the second half it really started coming together for for the horse boy and the Jaguar so I I'm

I do find myself open to the idea that Trevor Lawrence is a decent target. And man, I was looking at guys, the quarterbacks, which this is an indictment of ourselves as well. They're getting old for NFL years. I mean, Alan is 30. Lamar's going to be 30. Mahomes is 30. Herbert is 28. Joe Burroughs going to be 30. We got the new breed coming along. They need to get it going because when I saw how many of our dudes are 30. 30 is okay. 30 you got four or five easy good years left. You hope so, but here's what's crazy. Don't be influenced by Tom Brady. No, I'm not influenced by him, but like. I just saw a list of the current age of all the starting quarterbacks. And it was pretty wild because you had Stafford at like 38. Okay. And then it was like a gap where it's like Gino and then DAC as like 33.

And there's not a lot of guys playing at 35 years old. That's what I'm saying. It's more uncommon for you to be in your mid-30s and still slinging, giving us real good fantasy value. Am I too biased by the Breeze and Manning and Brady and those guys? I don't know. The Hall of Famers? Rogers. I mean, it's like, well, you know, Alan is probably a Hall of Famer. Mahomes, I mean, certainly, it's like is. Burrow and Lamar, are they on the trajectory? They're on the trajectory. Yeah, I mean, Lamar is. I don't know if Burrow is. I mean, Burroughs at least gotten to a Super Bowl. I mean, Lamar has two MVP. Yeah, he does have two now. I mean, I think Lamar's on the way. I don't know about Burrow, but Burroughs also played half the games of these other guys at 30. So, no, I think Lawrence, it's time to have the conversation and enjoy hopefully what we wanted.

for so many years of undeveloped Trevor Lawrence. So we'll take a break. Jason knew I was going to take a break. He didn't want to talk and have me cut him off. Not today, Satan. We'll turn it over to him in just a minute. All right. We are in the middle of Dynasty Week talking about trade for and tradeaway candidates for dynasty leagues. And Jason, you are up. I have a tradeaway candidate of a guy I love. He is. Prove it. He's a 25-year-old. wide receiver who was good sir who was just a top five you know you know this name was in there when no i did not i saw it i thought of oh my mike and how you were going to have a problem well let me talk to you here mike you're not going to convince him that's fine but the the reason that i am wanting to trade this guy away is because i think you haven't even said him he is he has peaked his best year of fantasy of all time and he's still young was last year and it was

My guy for me, it was George Pickens. Just turned 25 year old George. That's the point. I'm not. Was with a capital W. Yeah. I mean, look, obviously, you know who we want to trade away is every aging wide receiver before the floor falls out from under them. I don't, you know, those are those are a little bit easier to see coming. With George Pickens, what I care about here is last year was really, really, really inflated by the four week stretch. that cd lamb missed cd lamb missed three games and really four because he played nine percent of snaps in one of them in those games he was the wide receiver 16 the wide receiver two the wide receiver 19 and the wide receiver one and was just wrecking everybody those numbers really helped him have an outrageously high fantasy finish

What about when he was the wide receiver 3, 4, and 17 in three weeks in a row? The CD lamp on the field. If you want to look, now keep going. What about the other weeks where everybody thought that the floor had fallen out and he was? Yeah, 3963 bad weeks. Look, the player is good. The player is good. The reason that I'm using him as a tradeaway candidate is simply because he carries so much value right now. He's going to be really good for fantasy this year and he's 25 years old. But he's probably playing for another team. I mean, maybe they sign him to a long-term deal, but he's on a franchise tag right now. Right? So, first of all, I don't think he repeats last year's success. You see the lamb on those other teams? He's going to get, you see them on the other franchises? How was he for Pittsburgh? Because, yeah, he was the wide receiver five this last year. It's different, man. No, I'm just saying you don't know that it's going to be a good team that he goes to. And we've seen so many examples of.

the big free agent change at wide receiver, not really working out when they get to another team. There's a reason, I love him as a cowboy. There was a reason he was a my guy last year because he fits DAC perfectly. And should he sign a long term deal here, which I think people trying to trade for George Pickens would really, really love, that'd be great. But I mean. It's tough. I don't know how the money works. The previous three years is the wide receiver 36, 26, 41. Yes, he's young. Yes, he was the wide receiver five. I think that is the best season he'll ever have. And I think you can get an absolute haul for him. I think that's what it comes down to and I don't know. It's just value. What that translates to. I am not, yeah, I'm not saying get out of George Pickens. He's awesome. I'm saying get as much as you can for George Pickens. He's in a weird spot though. The one year deal makes him tough. Well, I'm saying you're not going to be able to take George Pickens and then get one of the.

You're not getting Jamar. You're not getting J.S.N. You might be able to get London. There's, I think there's a chance. But that's when you're not taking George. Ted McMillan. Without adding a ton to move into the category of the Jamars. That's almost an impossible place to get in dynasty trades. So it's you're almost certainly trading down a tier. I actually think you can there are the names he was just mentioning. I think you can trade George Pickens. plus a little bit into a Tet McMillan, into a Drake, London. I would much rather have those two. We were much, much rather have those two guys. We were talking, Carolina. We have a very strong difference of opinion of the Panthers and Tetoral McMillan's outlook. Yeah. So, I mean, I would rather have to, I would rather have London by, by wide margins. And I don't think the, you have to pay that large of a margin to probably get a mecca boot.

Yeah, I think you could get him. That's a scary. That would be the, I would do that. And you might be able to, you know, injured neighbors, if you had a first, you've got a young wide receiver and a first, maybe you can, maybe you could squeeze something like that out. Potentially do that. And so that's where I'm saying, I'm only selling him if I can really capitalize on the value because I don't think, I don't think he's up. Top 10 wide receiver again ever in fantasy. Oh, okay. Where do you have them ranked? For 2026 right now. No, I'm kidding. Don't ask me about my ranking. I have him ranked at 16, wide receiver 16. Mike has a 64 digit password. He has the type every time you want to look at his name. And I have to forget password. I have him at 18. But George. But it's, see that that's the thing is.

numerically yeah he's wide receiver 18 but like in terms of points how far he is off of that it's not it's not a massive gap and he will give you so many spike weeks he will give you he'll have it will have time where he will disappear and cd lamb will go but they're going to have games where george will go and cd will disappear and i think it balances out i still prefer cd lamb but i don't know by how much in the games with cd lamb He averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game, which is good. That is not great. 21.2 fantasy points in those games without him. What did C.D. Lamb average with George Pickens? I don't have that data in front of me. You're supposed to have all data in front of you. What did I just tell you about? I'm looking for my password. When I ask you something, you have to know it immediately. C.D. Lam started very strong. Well, it took George a little bit of time, but then he got hurt. We don't really have.

I think a good enough sample of those two to know what's really going to happen. I think Pickens did some things last year that Lamb doesn't do well. Yes. And I agree. I think Lamb, utilization-wise, it's going to be very interesting between those two. I think both George and CD this year, assuming there's no weird off-season stuff because of the franchise, that still does concern me. But if we go in, easily could both be in the top 12. Mike, you get to say. Did you figure that number out? Looks like it was 13 and a half fantasy points per game from week 7 through 17. That's the easiest way I can see for a CD. Yeah, I mean, that takes away his... 12.5 to 13 by 4? Yeah, I mean, that makes sense. It's tough because I'm not including the first two games where he averaged 15 fantasy points in those games. It's just it's hard to do here on the fly. Yes. All right. My trade four, it's another Jacksonville Jaguar. I'm in on Bayshalt-Tooten.

Thank you, Jason. You're welcome. And it's why I think he's a good trade for a candidate is because there still is, the ground is shaky. And this is not a firm foundation where you're like, yep, everyone knows it's going to be tuned because Krodd is still there. They brought him in. A decent running back. He just got there. Yeah, a decent running back from Washington. Could be the goal line running back. We don't know. That's Chris Rodriguez. Yes, Krodd. And they just signed Amir Abdullah this morning. Oh, man, sneaky Abdullah. He is a little sneaky. He's annoyingly. Did they really sign America? Yeah, yeah, they did. He has a great career. Yeah. He's played for so long. He's got like when, when the medical benefits and the like pension stuff. Oh, he's going to be doing great. He's loaded. Like, I mean, he outlasted David Johnson. By a lot. By a lot. This.

NFL is wild. Low reps helps. He's going into his 12th season at running back? Yeah, baby. Wait, he's going into season 12th? I mean, Abdullah was basically the, his drafting, that year was the beginning of the show. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. So fun fact, we used to have Abdullah Express mini posters. Oh, man. It was, it was almost great. So he did not see a ton of work. You know, you had... Talking about Tudin? Yes. Back to Bachelot Tudin. You had Travis A. Chan Jr. there as the primary guy. But in terms of actual efficiency, among the 55-4-500 guys. Bachel Tudin was fifth in rush success rate, fifth and percent of yards after contact, and he was tied with Brees Hall for 11th and forced miss tackle rate. As in, yeah, it's a low volume.

but he was very efficient. He was very good with it. He was awesome inside the five. So you're like, you can look at Tutin's yards for carry and so, oh, it's a little bit low. Seven of his carries were inside the five and five of those turned into touchdowns. Maybe that's a little scary for regression of he was too successful. But I think combining everything that we have seen Bayshaltun do, it's this looks like this is a solid running back, but he was drafted in the fourth round. So just how good he was. And then the competition, Krod, aka Chris Rodriguez. If you're talking receptions, three seasons, the NFL, he has six receptions talking about Krod. Like, I don't think we have to. That would be La Quint Allen as the past catcher. Sure. I mean, I think what I saw on the field last year that I liked the most was Tutans receiving. That's what I actually like. My biggest concern is speaking from somebody not making him a trade for a candidate. My biggest concern is that he's not really.

going to be able to handle being the dude. And that this team is, and the addition of Abdullah even solidifies like, hey, we're going to just do this by committee. And, you know, 300 rushing guards as a rookie, maybe they're not going to give him that opportunity. And that absolutely could have. I'm not saying I think that's going to happen. I just don't know. No, you are right, which is why you can possibly trade for him. Because if, if no one thought that, then Bayeshal Tutin would be on a rocket ship for his, for his fantasy, for his dynasty rankings.

And you still have to be hesitant, even I am. But the body of work, what we saw with the opportunity in front of him and the players who are behind him, it seems like he will be the main guy in a very high-scoring offense as we're projecting for the Jaguar. So I think it's worth a shot. I'm not overpaying, but I'm trying to get him on my team. Is it my turn? It is. So I have to be negative now? Yeah. But you were just positive. I was. And look, we've actually talked about this in the studio quite a bit. I don't know if you guys knew this was the name that I was bringing up on today's show. It better not be George Pickens. It's Devante Adams. Okay, that's fine. It is time to cash out for whatever they're going to give you. Jason, two of these three guys are on our...

dino junior team well let's take the advice and try to make some moves this is late we've already told everyone we've got we got until the episode releases in the morning like let's get to work the devante i'm so out on devante adams you are you are you are you are i think your quote off air earlier was that guy was it's not the beginning i was like so you think this is going to be the beginning of the end and you're like no last year was the beginning of the end this year's like the end last year you had um

You had the touchdown insanity, which, I mean, look, this was the best season anybody's ever had inside the five-yard line as a wide receiver. I don't want to take anything away from what he was able to accomplish there. 14 touchdowns is insane. And he missed two games. Let's be clear. That was the season for Devante Adams. He had three. 60? Yeah, he missed three games. He had 60 total receptions for this team in 700. 89 yards. This team seemed primed and ready to trade him away if a good offer came. They're in the same boat dynasty managers are. You should cash in on a Devante Adams 14 touchdown season because he is 33.3 years old. That is a big deal. Players, they declined. We had a whole dynasty lifecycle article by Marv, Marvin Eloquin on our site that talked about, look,

The biggest decline in fantasy point production came from age 32 to 33. 30% decline in points per game looking at Demarius Thomas and AJ Green and Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. And it doesn't matter the name. Time catches up. That's why this team was ready to make moves in other directions this offseason if they needed to. Because two things, you don't get better with age, but you do get more injured more often. And Adams has dealt with that as well. So you've got injury risk? I would bet my life he doesn't score 14 times again. And I highly doubt that he's going to go way, way higher in the total yardage total, getting a year older when historically that doesn't generally happen. This is the second fewest yards ever for a 14 touchdown season. So shout out to the James Jones 2012 season. Oh, yeah. 14 touchdowns with, I mean, you had an MVP season from your quarterback, right?

The last four, do that every year. The last four years of Matthew Stafford on the Rams, 3.3% touchdown rate, 4.6, 3.9, 7.7. I mean, we, that's not, it's not happening again. And we see this, we have so much data on this. Great, all-time quarterbacks, Brady, Manning, Breeze. This happens. To all of them, they have these outlier crazy touchdown rate years and they don't keep doing it the next year. So I actually think this is a brilliant tradeaway. It's it's low hanging fruit because he's an old wide receiver, but because he just got all those touchdowns, it's like you can cash in. I mean, you get to make those arguments in the positive of you've got the MVP a quarterback and you're on the best offense with the best play caller and you just scored 14 times and you miss three games. Like you can just say it like that. Yeah, go to a team. Someone will want to trade with you.

Go to a contender. You're obviously not going to trade Devante Adams to any rebuilding team. So be wise. Look at your league. See who is really capable of winning a championship and see what they're willing to give up for Adams. It would take a full rewatch. So I can't speak to the film. I'm just numbers wise. He caught 53% of his targets from Matthew Stafford. It just seems weird. Where, I mean, you had. He had two years. For his career, by the way, he's a 63% catch rate. He had the two years in Las Vegas where he was just bombarded with targets. He caught 56% of them in 2022. I think that was the Derek Carr year. And then 59%. And that's the Aiden O'Connell year. Like to go down to 53%, something just seems off. And maybe it's the decline. Like maybe it's a, you know, the athleticism is slightly.

starting to go to the point where the cornerbacks can, you know, catch up. But 53% just, it seems too low. Like it's something, there's, it's very funky. His touchdown rate is way too high, but the catch percentage is too low. So maybe it meets in the middle. There's certainly a world where like he's, he's totally fine for this year. I mean, you can get by with, oh, okay, he scores 10 times because they draw that stuff up for him and he has 700 yards again. They didn't. You know, Mikey Lemon, that was the team we thought could draft Mikey Lemon. They didn't do that, right? Like they don't have the next era parent, which is why he didn't get traded. But, I mean, how long is this window? The math doesn't math. You know what I mean? It's like maybe you get by with a touchdown dependent season this year, but you certainly are not going to be able to trade a 34-year-old Devante Adams if he declines this year. So to me, I'd take your shot at it. Trade him to a contender under the promise of being able to contribute for a couple years with an MVP.