Fantasy Football - Free Agent Predictions + Deebo Trade, Combine Chat - Podcast for 3/4

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Tuesday, March 4th, the fantasy footballers, Jason Moore, Mike, the fantasy old man. I'm Andy Holloway. Yeah, Mike, you celebrated a birthday yesterday. I did. One of your last. One year closer. To the end. One year closer, everybody. Did you do anything to celebrate? Donuts, Carl's Jr. Yeah, over the weekend. I ate healthy. I spent all day at a football tournament for my son. Ooh. A hubboob rolled through. Those are fun. Which is, for those who are not living in Arizona, that is a gigantic dust storm. Like, kind of think about like the mummy. Yeah. So. Yes.

It wasn't mummy bad, but it was still multiple hours of just... You didn't have to fly a biplane out of the storm? No, thankfully, I did not have to do that. No, no evil. And there was no creatures in the direct. Just lots of dust and real strong winds. How have we not had a Haboob, like, movie, like an end-of-the-world apocalypse-style movie just tied up. Well, because if you've been in one, you're like... This is really, really unpleasant, but I can make it. Yeah, we're going to be fine. They kept playing football. He didn't take a pause. Oh, no. We kept playing. I kept sitting there. There was a dust devil out in part of the valley out here that was outrageous in the middle of a kid's soccer game. I don't know if you saw that. I did not see that one. It was throwing like. Did it take a kid? Almost. It was close. It was throwing like.

objects all over the place. It was huge. We've got some free agency predictions on today's episode of the show. We got NFL news. We had the combine. Did you watch a lot of what transpired? I know we didn't get every player we wanted out there. I didn't watch very much this time, but definitely, you know, got plugged in and we're trying to catch up on the big ones. Yeah, the combine is unfortunately. deteriorating for the high-end talent because there's no need. Like there's no positive. Downside is higher than the upside. Exactly. There's really nothing to gain if you, I mean, these guys have agents who are plugged in. They already kind of have a general idea of about where they should go in the draft. But it gives the, you know, lower tiered names a chance to shine. And so just look at the big takeaway for me was the running backs. We've got.

We've got a good chunk of running backs here that could be really fantasy relevant. Now where the spots, it's going to be very difficult. I mentioned this on one of the shows recently of like running back situations based off of this draft class. There's going to be some that will be fully nuked. Like there's going to be guys that you thought were this. I'm locked in, man. I got this guy as one of my starters heading into 2025 and then bang. a second or third round running back is going to land in your backfield and you're going to feel uneasy about it. Well, we will have the post-combine update to the Dynasty Pass hitting very soon. A lot of updates have already been made. You can get that at Ultimate draftkid.com. We just finished up our giveaway, an exclusive listener league spot. And Al, you're going to have to find me some celebratory.

Can I get the like announcement horn or something? Thank you. The winner of the listener league spot we have it here to announce. Jason? Jay Rago. Oh, I get it. I didn't know I was getting a drum roll. Annihilated the drum roll. You would not be good at the Oscars. Now, hold on. And the nominees are. But wait a minute. Did you know there was going to be a drum roll? No. That was a surprise. I feel like Al took advantage of you. Yes, 100%. Either way, you ruined all anticipation. You just shouted the name. No, I didn't. I had just said Jay Rego. It is Janine Rego. Someone else out there might be like Josh Rego. And they're like, oh, I won. No, you didn't. Janine.

Rego, you were the one selected. Yep. So everybody that pre-ordered it, everybody that's a member of the Ultimate Tier at Jointhefoot.com was entered, and Jay Rego with the win. So congratulations. You'll be part of the listener league. We'll do a couple other giveaways, obviously, as we head towards the season with more listener league spots available, and you can get the UDK at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Quick question of the day. It's just a carry-on of what you just said. I already did it. Were there any other reactions or is there a player to? There were players that stood out for better or worse. You had Tess Johnson, Itty Bitty Baby Boy. That one was sad. I like him. And I want him to succeed. And like with the way that the NFL has been, where we keep getting these guys like, they're way too small. They're way too small. And then they're they're exceeding the expectations. Tess Johnson's a wide receiver at Oregon. And I mean, he's small. He's like.

He's the smallest player weighed in since 1999. Looks at Tankdown. He's like, bro, what are your secrets? Tankdale of how do you get that big? The smallest since 99? And he ran slow for the timed 40. Now it's like if you watch this tape, I don't, that's one where it doesn't match. But it was, Tess's combine was a little sad. Yeah. Caleb Johnson. was surprisingly slow on the 40. That one makes no sense. It makes no sense. There's no way watching that guy break away that he, that's his top speed. He's not a good sprinter. He ran a 457. I think he is a good running back. Did he get to 457? I thought it was like 4.6. Yeah, his official score, I believe, was a 457, which was just slower than what you thought you might see on tape. And truly, like, he hit 22.2 miles per hour.

in a game last year. Which should just be what you know. Well, that's what happened with like Puka. Puka ran slow, but they had the tracking of him hitting, I think it was 22 miles per hour in college. It's like, okay, so on the football field, he's fast. In underwear doing a track and field style sprint, you're not as fast. Which one do you want to play football? We were begging for years and continued to beg about 40-yard dashes in pads. The truth is we've bypassed the need for that completely because our on the field, advanced analytics, allow us to see how fast the player actually is. These teams should not need to see a guy go out at all into a 40. You should just be able to watch the film. Now, there are some cases, right? You don't play a lot or maybe you didn't have a breakaway opportunity. And yes, we'd want to see some of that on film, you know, for the 40. But you have so much more data. And this is why you said it's being.

devalued or its impact, the amount of players that participate. Maybe some other players can shine by stepping out and being in that 99th percentile athlete score in the combine. But you have so much film and so much data that you gather from the collegiate ranks now that, you know, the decisions are not being made on the on the back of the combine alone. Yeah, guys that help their stock. O'Marion Hampton really showed out across the gamut. You know, his 40-yard dash 446. That's, you know, it's not breaking records, but that's really fast for a guy that weighs in at 220 pounds. All of his athletic measurables put him as an elite athlete. I think he combined himself into the first round. He was a borderline first round pick, yeah. And when I look at this, but the thing is, is with Hampton, he projects to be a three down back. Like that is his skill set. He was a pass protector, pass catcher in college, and he's big. He can do it all.

And so I do feel like for him, for fantasy football purposes, I want that team investment. I want a team to spend a first rounder on him because then I know he's going to get the ball a ton. I think he combined his way into that role. Yeah, a lot of excitement around Hampton. Let's talk some more news. News and notes from around the league. We had a trade. We were with our NFL free agency prediction show today. I had said, hey, we should probably throw a couple names out there that we predict trade destinations because there's some players that were very obviously going to be traded. One of those names was Debo Samuel and I am. I predict Washington. I predicted the commanders as well. You beat me to it. Fifth round pick for Debo Samuel. So a new home for Debo. It's a weird one.

Somehow this is my take on it, and I really want to hear how you think it will translate for fantasy in maybe one year in Washington. But I kind of feel like both sides are kind of fine here. Like the 49ers needed to move on. He wanted to move on. They got a fifth round pick. He's been declining in a lot of key metrics for four straight years. The commanders... They could use a veteran presence outside of Terry McLaren. They could use a guy that's good in short area space. They were a high screen game team. Whether the debo we saw in 2021, which he's not, right, a 1,400-yard guy, he can still bring something to the table in Washington that they didn't have. So I, you know, I don't know if I see this as either team losing. I think it's a win for both. They're...

A lot of people on Twitter have been pointing out the pneumonia gate of like when, how was Debo doing last year in the first month or so? Then he got pneumonia and his stats afterwards were real bad. You know, like maybe, maybe that factored in. There's he, Debo did not look anything close to the same type of player to me last year. But again, maybe. with the fresh start and being healthy, with having some healthy lungs that will help him out. But he works out in Washington. He's not going to be a guy that people aren't going to be excited to draft Debo. It's going to be the, you're going to get into the, what, like seventh, eighth round and be like, I know him. Does he represent any negative effects on McLaurin more than people being excited about Devo? I don't think so. I don't think so. I feel like Debo's going to come here and help.

the team a little bit, not a ton. They did need this. We've been talking about it. This is a outlandishly bad, or outlandish is the wrong word. It is a very, very unusual wide receiver draft class for recent history. The prospects are not as good as they usually are coming out into the draft. And then with T. Higgins, getting tagged, the free agent pool of wide receivers. There's not much there. So if you want, if your team needs a wide receiver, there's one way to do it. And that's a trade for a guy. That's why, you know, I think DK Metcalf probably will get traded because there's going to be teams that need to trade to address their wide receiver position. They can't necessarily do it in the draft or in free agency. To me, Debo will be a mild addition to this team. And...

I'm excited for Ricky Pearsall and the opportunity is there. You've got Brandon Ayyuk, who is, we don't know when he'll be back. Right now, I think the projection is probably start on the pup, but if he doesn't, he's not going to be full strength. He might not even be on this team. I mean, Diana Rusini reporting the teams have expressed an interest in trading for Ayyuk, which fits the kind of narrative that there's not a lot of great instant effect type of guys coming out. So is it a Brandon Ayuk or Metcalf that draw teams' interests if you need a veteran presence? T. Higgins is off the board. He signed his franchise tag. Or was assigned the franchise tag? Let me rephrase it. He is officially tagged. The Brandon Ayuk news is strange to me of like, you're about to open the vaults for Brock Purdy. And then if you're like, okay, here's your weapons. Brock, it's, uh,

Ricky Pearsall, who maybe, maybe he was a, I mean, he's a first round draft capital and he showed a little bit of flashes. He just, you know, the shooting in the offseason so he didn't get a full normal rookie year. But then it's like George Kittle. I mean, it's just, I don't know that you want to start your, like the real regime of Brock Purdyoff without having wide receivers to go to. Yeah. And, you know, like Jason said. Ayuk might not be there for a while, but he's at least the player that could be a dominator. Yeah, he will be back eventually. We don't know if Pierceall is just a role player type of wide receiver at the next level. It'll be really interesting to see where Jennings is drafted because John Jennings was a stud at certain points last year and it seems like they really need him now. And Kittle? Oh, Kittle, for sure. And all the tantalizing opportunities to draft Christian McCaffrey. No. Not at number one. I'm going to.

I mean, you're going to end up with them everywhere. I'm going to be so in. If they trade IUC or IUC starts on pop, you're going into the season, Pierceall, Jennings, Kettle, and McCaff. They got to do something. And they were a rough offense last year. So there's a lot of work to be done. And, you know, this year we'll tell you what direction the franchise is going to some degree, right? I mean, you just paid Rand and Iuk all that money. And the fact that he's even being talked about in trade offers, it's wild. the way that the contract was structured with it with being like additional stuff like he hasn't I think that someone was saying he hasn't even started to eat into the cap of the new numbers so I think maybe that's why they're floating and of like is there a way that the 49ers can get out easy right now I'm not 100% sure Matthew Stafford and the Rams agreed to a restructured contract for him to remain with the team

which is also the case for Tyler Higby remaining with the team. I thought Stafford would be gone. I was wrong. It moved quickly. It went from a lot of momentum towards a split to a lot of momentum that he was going to stay. And then suddenly the deal was done. Yeah. So, you know, going forward, this is great for Puka, the fantasy value of Kairn Williams. I think that those two guys, I mean, Puka, you can make a strong argument that he should be the number two wide receiver. behind Jemar Chase. Yeah. Anywhere there from like two to five or something. There's kind of a group of awesome wide receivers, but he very likely could. I mean, he was on a points per game basis. If you take out his injured game, he was the number two wide receiver last year. So Stafford is back. Travis Kelsey is back in business. Returning to the Chiefs for 2025. Are we happy?

Who's we? They're like us, the fantasy football community. So 97 for 8, 23 and 3. Yeah, I think, I think we are happy that Kelsey is back. Titan six. There's, he is still, you know, if you were to remove Travis Kelsey's name and just have tightened X. Would you rather have him or Andrews? if you had to lock him into the starting lineup all year long. Knowing, I mean, there's rumors around Andrew. I think that one is a great talk because they were the top two guys for so long. We're saying Andrews still in Baltimore, right? Yeah, if Andrews is in Baltimore. I just mean like today. Oh, today? All variables in play. Just today you've got to decide which guy you keep. For a redraft, not Dynasty. Because obviously Dynasty is Mark Andrews. Yeah. Sure. Yeah, just which one would you rather lock into your lineup today?

Right now I would go, I would go Kelsey. I feel like you were in the middle of saying right now I would go and you hadn't decided yet. Yeah. Yeah, basically. I mean, it could go either way. Yeah, it's tough. The Jets are taking calls on Devante Adams. Spoiler alert, they're probably not going to find a trade for Devante Adams, but they have said they will release him if they can't trade him. So you will have Devante Rogers holding hands, strolling through free agency lane. looking for suckers, our teams to bring a couple of agent vets in. Adams can still play, just not at the, not at an elite level. Yeah, but he's still, he's still good. Honestly, and what, what I was just bringing up, so obviously if they cut him, he'll have to go, wait, would he have to go through the waiver system at his year in the NFL? I don't know that off the top of my head. Kyle vet that. No, he would not have to go to waiver. Okay, so then if he is completely a free agent.

I actually think he is the most valuable asset that any team can go get. He's not worth trading for the current contract and giving up extra stuff for an older veteran, but there are wide receiver needy teams. And if he is out there, he will have a lot of teams. He will be hyper specific on where he wants to go. Yeah. You know, and I think it will potentially come with Rogers. So we'll, we'll see. Yeah. I can see him just going to the Niners. Go to the Rams. That'd be interesting. Either in some of those California teams. I don't know. Niners makes almost too much sense. Yeah. Yeah. He says goodbye, Aaron. I'm going on my own to a better situation for a team. Remember the team you thought you were going to play for? For a ring. Well, because if he was going with Aaron, where is he going? I mean, you've got a Cleveland? You're doing the Cleveland combo?

That doesn't sound like a good time for Aaron. No, it's like... I mean, that... Where you're starting, you want to go... You're not going back to the Raiders. I mean, the Raiders could use Aaron, but he just left the Raiders. He's not going back to the Raiders, Adams. Yeah. I was going to say the Raiders, but that makes... Go to the Steelers? I don't know. Go be one of the retreads the Steelers have tried on for. For all the places that Rogers can go, it's who... Who do you sign up for if you're Devante Adams of like, yes, this team can...

really honestly make a run. I genuinely, truly believe that Aaron Rogers and Avanti Adams care about nothing but their numbers to finish this out. Well, that's great for us. Yeah. Let's go. Put up some fantasy numbers. All right, Jason. The athletics, Zach Rosenblatt believes it's unlikely the Jets will pursue an extension with Bruce Hall. I don't blame him. I don't blame him, man. What he put on the field last year was not special. It was an average running back. And I hope this coming season it's awesome, you know, that the team can commit to him. He could be one of, if not their best offensive weapon. He is still so young. And prior to this season, it'll be 24 this year. Incredibly explosive. This last year, I mean, we watched, you know, we watch everything.

But it was just you would compare him to other players that made things happen on their own. And you'd just be like, well, Brice used to always hit that edge. Brice used to always break that tackle. He did nothing. He seemed very, I mean, I've said this a bunch of times. He's very good in the passing game. Get him into some space. Let him get downhill. But like you said, making something from yourself behind the line of scrimmage. That seemed like it was a struggle. It was a struggle to get to those, you know, bigger chunk yardage plays this year. Garrett Wilson is willing to discuss a long-term extension with the Jets. Anybody who wants to talk to me about a long-term extension, I'm willing to have a discussion. That would be my policy. If anybody's like, I'd like to talk to you about a long-term extension, I will be listening. I would not be like, no. Because this is payday for Garrett Wilson. So it's like,

Somebody can come in, even if I don't want to play for you, come in and set a number. And he is, yeah, Hall is entering the final year of the rookie deal. So, I mean, Breece Hall right now, I've got him eight at running back in Dynasty. Jason, you have him at ninth. Ninth on your rankings, 30th in your heart. Yeah, that's because he's on my roster. Mike, you are still more optimistic at least. He's a couple spots lower than that. Six then maybe. Yeah. Seven range. Yep. There has been a lot of talk about Metcalf trades. Packers being brought up. The Packers supposedly, I saw it from multiple good sources that they, you know, at least the message they want out there is that there's a trade on the table that they've presented. That involves either Dantavian Wicks or Romeo Dobbs and some sort of draft capital. It's being reported out of Seattle. They want at least the first. Yeah.

So, and then the, we'll see. Obviously, Debo is a little bit further along in the career than D.K. Metcalf, but if you're chatting about trading for D.K. Metcalf and then you're like, Debo just got a five. You want one of our young, blossoming solid wide receivers in our first round pick for DK? That's, if I were the Packers, they'd be like, no way. That's not happening. I don't think the Packers would give up a first plus one of their wide receivers for DK Metcalf. I'm guessing they're floating. It would obviously be a late first. Yeah. I'm guessing they're floating their second round pick, which feels fair to both parties, to be honest. Yeah, I think that would make sense. I think that's it by way of news, unless Deucer's Allie, you guys got anything back there? No, sir. All three of you present and accounted for in this moment? At this moment. Okay. All right. That's good to know.

Didn't know if we had to hand a trophy over to somebody else. Dude, I need to get rid of this trophy soon. And I'm telling you guys right now, you're going to want to stop drinking whatever is in your cup over the next month during our show. If I, you're going to mission impossible him. I'm going to food poisoning. Yeah, I'm thinking dumb and dumber him, but what, you know, you're going to be sitting on the toilet drink up and we'll tell you. Yeah. Down the hatch. Well, that's. frightening uh we'll take a break back with some free agency predictions all right uh thursday we have 10 things to remember today we're going to talk about some of the free agency predictions the league year starts next monday am i right about that next monday i don't know i'm not i think it's next monday i'm distracted i'll try and pull something up here so so we are actually gonna we normally record this time of year the afternoon before

Oh, yeah, okay. League year is Wednesday. The tamper is Monday. Yes, the tampering. The legal tampering. So when news starts the break, it will be as early as Monday. We'll record early Tuesday and release it right away. So you'll be up to date the second we release the show next Tuesday for the free agency period. It'll be a lot of fun. Maybe not as much fun this year. I'm not, you know, maybe it's just me, but I'm not as excited about seeing where Najee Harris goes as some of the other. flagship these are these are more like you're playing minesweeper right now of like there's good running backs in the draft and if my team or a team with my guy picks up one of these running backs I'm okay that's not anywhere close to as bad as a good event fair enough uh let's talk pre agent frenzy well uh before we get into the predictions I'm going to let one of you two gentlemen talk through a few of the um

Details. Mike's so good at this. Which part am I talking about? Sometimes it's, we like to do this at least once a year. Just talk through the explanation of what a cap hit represents, what dead money represents. When we talk about, didn't we just do that? I think that was the footcast. I think that was the footcast. So, you know, when we start talking about teams with cap space, right, New England, Las Vegas, Washington, they have a ton of cap space. We'll often bring up language around. what a player's cap hit would be, what their dead money is. When we're talking free agency, maybe a brief overview. So the salary cap is the overall amount of money that every team is allowed to spend. And in the NFL, it is a hard cap. You cannot go over it. Each team has the same exact amount of money that they can go to. Now they have to, I don't remember the percentage that they have to spend, but there is a floor.

That was instituted a while back because too many owners were pocketing as much money as possible, which they still can do. But so that's the total salary cap. And then each player based off of your contract, you take up a certain percentage of that. And it gets confusing when you're talking. You're signing bonus. And these things, so then that money gets pushed into later years. And you can put fake years that then you're like, I'm spreading it over the cap. But essentially. The more, I mean, it's like the more, you play games with navigating that amount. How much do you want to hit right now? How much do you want to hit later? And so teams who have a lot of money, they'll load up and they become attracted to a free agent. It's like, I'm going to get all my money right now. So that's kind of a tactic they can take or a team who's strapped right now. You just, you push the credit card like the Rams and the Saints have had done that for quite a while. Oh, the Saints have done that for.

going on like 13 years every year they have no cap space they restructure some guys and look at the team like the team is in this purgatory of not terrible but not a team that looks like they'll be able to make I will say this the sun the sons would be so proud of them when they finally decide we cannot kick the can down the road anymore which I don't know that they will ever do but if they do they will have the fastest route to the first pick in the draft because that thing will burn to the ground. Did you talk about dead money? Dead money is the guaranteed money left on a player's contract at the time they are let go or traded. So the guaranteed money left. And that money will count against the team's cap the following year. Right. So there you go. And the cap going up so much this year. I mean, similar last year, but these are massive jumps. Teams have to spend at least 89% of the cap.