Week 7 Matchups + Bad Luck Chuck, Wheel of Shame! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/20

You know, George Pickens has been very, very good. It kind of seems like he should have earned his way to be locked into a weekly flex. But this was all without Deontay Johnson. So now it's like I feel like I want a game to wait and see is Deontay Johnson go back to just being, you know, the primary first read target, the more targeted player, is that take away from Pickens. I don't want to start any, any Steelers here. Last week, the Rams did shut down. I mean, the air yards were there, but the production wasn't for Hollywood on those deep throws. So the Cardinals are one in five. They take on the Seattle Seahawks, who are three and two. Yeah, I mean, the NFL surprises sometimes, but this is not a game on projecting surprise. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Seattle minus seven and a half. The overrunners, 44 and a half. Could be the last game for Josh Dobbs as the starter of Arizona Cardinals. No James Connor, so it's going to be Keante Ingram, Damien Williams.

Amari Demarcato. No thank you. Yeah, you're not starting any of those players. They're one, not good. Two, they're splitting. No one has the workload to themselves. And you're underdogs in this game. So no thank you. What are we doing with Hollywood, though? I mean, Hollywood's targets have been through the roof. Yeah, Hollywood is a fantastic, fantastic play. He's your start of the week. You know, you just look at his target numbers. Since week two, 10, 7, 10, 10, 11, that's bankable. We talked about him being a great trade for target. Last week, the air yards were there, just didn't connect. And so I'm happy to play Hollywood. I can't imagine not playing. Yeah, I'm going to just keep your eyes on Michael Wilson and Trey McBride this week because they were tied for the second in targets last week. Just don't play them.

Look at them on the screen. Gino Smith's, your start of the week at quarterback facing Arizona and Arizona defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. And Kenneth Walker is facing the 30th ranked running defense with probably no Zach Charbonnet. Yeah, I mean, he had 76% of the snaps, 22 opportunities out of the bike. Kenneth Walker is the best play. And don't you dare. Don't you dare. I see you doing it. You're doing it, aren't you? Am I right? No, I'm not changing anything. You're not changing your draft case. I legitimately just wanted to know what the price was for Kenneth Walker. All right. Good. I'm glad you didn't know. I think he will be a smash success this week. There you go. Gino Smith, he was my start of the week because this is a really rough week for streaming options. You really do have to hope that the touchdowns come early for Gino.

Because if they come early for Kenneth Walker, they're going to come late for Kenneth Walker as well, and he will dominate. So this is a situation where hopefully Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, they get it going early to get a good lead. Tyler Lockett has just crushed the Cardinals. The last six games, he's averaged a touchdown, a game, 94 yards, six receptions. You know, you're always going to start Lockett and Metcalfe and Walker. So you just move on. And like I said, I do think Jason is going to have a maybe the best week of the season. I do. You don't agree. I'm just trying. I'm just sniffing around for your draft kings lineup. Sometimes you say things you prop up under, you know, under the radar guys a lot and then they end up in your lineup. I mean, at least the logic checks out there. Right. No, no, no. It makes complete sense. It is a reason to do it. Yes. It's putting your money where your mouth is. I totally get that. I'm just trying to. Yeah, I mean, you could be wrong. I could be right. I don't know. Green Bay two and three.

Broncos 1 and 5. Drafking Sportsbook line, Green Bay, minus 1. The overrunner is 45. This Denver defense? Don't think you can call him that. This Denver not offense? There you go. It gets to take on Jordan Love. Jordan Love is, you know what his rank is in completion percentage out of 35 players that have complete. Attempted at least 50 passes? There's 35 of them? 35 of them. I'm going to guess 36th. No, he's not below, but he has 35 out of 35. Okay. Completing just about half his passes. Cool. He does lead the NFL on average depth of target, which is kind of making up for it. And that's something where, you know, like C.J. Stroud, for example, we've been impressed with him. C.J. Stroud is 32 out of 35 in that number. So completion percentage is a rookie, not everything. You just want to see him make some big plays.

It has been a top 12 quarterback in three of five weeks, and the matchup is juicy. Yeah, big plays are what the Broncos have been giving up all season. This is to me a great spot for if Aaron Jones doesn't get re-injured in this game. Like that is the fear. If Aaron Jones is healthy, just what a great play. But Christian Watson is the guy to me. When I look at the matchups against the Broncos and how they've been beaten, it's just these speedy guys that the defenders just give up on. And I feel like Christian Watson is prime for a 40 plus yard touchdown this week. Okay. Where are you out with Romeo Dobbs? I like Romeo Dobbs. I mean, there's a plus matchup for everyone. And he has been getting great target share. He's always on the field. He's usually the number one. Now, last game was a pretty huge disappointment. One catch for four yards in a matchup against the Raiders. Yes. Last time we saw them, Dobbs was absolutely terrible.

We have to always remember wide receivers that aren't one of the top five wide receivers in the league. They all have down games. And when you only look at whatever happened last game and you're like, oh, he just had a bad game, that's the new normal. And then you don't play him. You just never get. No, I understand the principle, but you also have Aaron Jones returning. You have Christian Watson's snap counts going up. You have. A couple of factors that weren't there, you know, we still see Jaden Reed on the field. So I think at times we look at it and we say, is this a trend that's going to begin or not? Like would you play Sutton who scored four times on the other side of the football that, you know, it doesn't seem like Sutton is like Judy could be heading out, but Sutton might be sticking around. I would rather play Romeo Dobbs than Sutton. And, you know, I mentioned it, Aaron Jones.

He's my start of the week. I think you have to get him into your lineup against this 32nd ranked run defense. I know it's going to be nerve-wracking, but he is not the kind of player that needs 30 opportunities, 25 opportunities. He is a player that in this situation, you could get him 12, 15 opportunities, and that could be enough for fantasy. A lot of questions about the Denver backfield. Giovante Williams, Jaliel McLaughlin. I thought. I saw Jaliel McLaughlin hit waiver wires this week. That is a mistake. That is a mistake, in my opinion, because he is completely replacing the completely career over Somaget P-run. I mean, Samajé has looked bad all year. This last week, he played 17% of the snaps and received exactly zero rushing attempts. So, like, McLaughlin played his way into relevance. The Packers have not been good stopping the run.

So, you know, we've talked about so many backfields where it's like I don't want to play anyone from there. And like, I would rather play McLaughlin than the, than the Steelers running backs. Either one. Yeah. Judy, still on your bench? Yeah. Russell Wilson was Mike start of the week on yesterday's show. He's not mine. He is not mine either. I don't really understand that one. Maybe he's got a magic book. that says the future that was brought to him in the past by Martin McFly. Maybe he didn't want to show up today for this conversation. Yeah. Luke Musgrave is one of eight touchdowns. He's one of eight touchdowns, Jason. Yeah. It's one of eight tight ends with 20 plus percent of teams' receptions. So he is a plus matchup this week. I still, you know, it's like mayor. It's like mayor this week. Both guys I see very similarly, which is young.

talented. If it's their week, you'll be happy. If it's not their week, I won't be surprised. Yeah, yeah, it makes complete sense. I think if you have to start one, I would rather start Musgrave. If you want to hold one in hopes that they become something more integral to the offense, then that would be mayor. The chargers are two and three. The chiefs are five and one. Chiefs are at home at Arrowhead, and the Drafking Sportsbook line has them as five and a half point favorites. The overrunners 48 in this one bet down from 50 and a half, which is where it started. And I can see that. I can see this, like the Chief's defense has been a problem for fantasy managers and opponents. Yeah, I mean, and for Mahomes in the sense that their defense has kept their games much lower scoring than usual. I mean, we are hopeful for a barn burner here because if you look, since Justin Herbert has entered the league, these matchups that they played, you know,

twice a year, average 54 points per game. So the line going down to 48 from 50 and a half is, I think, respect for the Kansas City Chiefs defense and maybe fear of the Chargers offense without Mike Williams. I want to spend the time in this game because it's got a high over under, like you said, the history has been great. Like Mahomes, Herbert, Kelsey and Keenan, those guys who are in, and Austin Echlor you're playing, and Isaiah Pocheco you're playing. Yep. getting a ton of opportunities. Mike mentioned 20 a game and he's the start of the week. But I want to spend the time on the two kind of dart throw upside peripheral wide receivers. Joshua Palmer and Rushie Rice. That's exactly right. Joshua Palmer is seven targets, eight targets, seven targets. Huge is not getting any work. And so Palmer really is next man up. Yes. Palmer in the games that Mike Williams missed last year.

was pretty good, but he was never great. And so I think that's what Palmer is. He is definitely a player that you can start. I don't think you're going to get a goose in this matchup. Maybe you're hoping for a touchdown, but I don't think you get that. I think his line at the end of the game is going to be five for 69. Well, let me ask you this. If you were an underdog, hypothetically, because I've got a friend in this situation, you're an underdog. You have Joshua Palmer on your roster. You have Rashi Rice on your roster. And you need the maximum potential. Who is that? Well, I would say it's Rushi Rice. And your opponent has Patrick Mahomes. And that's where I would say it's not Rushy Rice. Because for you, you're not going to make me. For you, because your opponent has Patrick Mahomes, you're not looking to negate and stay with him. You're looking for a swing. And you're hoping that Mahomes has a dud.

and Palmer has a, you know, a good game, whereas if Rushie Rice has a good game, you're not catching up because Mahomes is getting those points. I'll let my friend know. Okay, yeah, you let him know. But Josh Palmer, I mean, for all of the targets and opportunities, it's been real pedestrian fantasy outputs, which is kind of disappointing. I am excited about Rashi Rice moving forward. Me too. In general, I think he's actually a really good start this week. You know, he's been, he's got two different touchdowns on the season, and he's got two more where he was, you know, a yard away from a touchdown. They use him in that area of the field. I wish they used him more. I was going to, I mean, his snap counts have peaked at 51 and 49, you know, despite having the good week against Minnesota, it was only 30%. I mean, do you foresee any scenario where he's a 70, 80% snap guy? I.

Probably don't. The way that Andy Reid has run this offense without Tyree Kill is just packages. He's just got a bunch of different packages for different players. And when they are at practice, they're running those things. I mean, it can happen and it can change with like MVS goes down, right? MVS is like the only guy who's on the field a ton. And now you've got to shuffle things around. But I do expect more and more. times for Rishi Rice's number to get called, for them to put plays designed for him. And his value seems to be in the area of the field that is good for fantasy. So I'm, and the matchup is fantastic. Now, you did send me a counteroffer to reacquire Rashi Rai. I sure did. And I believe in him. The compensation was not sufficient. What was it? Nothing. That's right. You tried to get me to give you him. I asked for him, um, but I did not have the opportunity.

to say please. And so now, Andy, please give me him back. I didn't mean to drop him. Yeah, I'm sorry. I can't do that. Okay, I tried. Miami, Sunday night football, the dolphins, five and one taken on the five and one Philadelphia Eagles. This is a great game. It's the matchup of the week. The DK Sportsbook line here, Philly minus two and a half. The overrunners 51 and a half. Who do you have in this game? It's been tough. Yeah. I went with Miami. Really? In our picks. And look, I don't, you know, Miami's had one big challenge this year where they went on the road to Buffalo and they got destroyed. Yeah. The only reason I really went with them in this one is because the Eagles' offense has looked scattered at times. Their defense has not looked great either. No, I mean, right now for those tracking at home, when you see Philadelphia as the opponent for your fantasy player, you've often thought, uh-oh. But if you're a quarterback right now or a wide receiver,

You should be saying congratulations. Like Tua, the matchup for him, the over-under, both wide receivers with Waddle and Hill. I mean, this could be a very big game. Philly's strength is their D-line. They're still great at stopping the run. And I do think by the end of this season, they will get back to being a great defense. But they have dealt with so many injuries to their safeties, their cornerbacks. They're really kind of more of a skeleton crew than they've been in the past right now. And that's why, you know, you could throw on them. If you could throw on them and you've got Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. And potentially a big need to throw the ball a lot. Yeah, I mean, this is, come on, don't disappoint. And then, you know, Mostert has a tougher matchup, but he has been catching the ball. Jeff Wilson should be back. I think you start Rahim Mostert because, of course. And everyone else I would, I would much, much, much rather take a wait and see approach. Like Jeff Wilson. Yes. But if I had to.

guests, I think Jeff Wilson will be the next man up. Any worries about Devante Smith in light of the limited practice hamstring? Or are you just playing it? No, I mean, you're worried because of the hamstring and there's nothing you can do about it. Like if he goes out there and runs and reagravates it, you just go, well, shucks. I mean, you can bench him? But can you really bench a wide receiver in this week, in this matchup with... What about like Josh Palmer? No, you would never play a Josh Palmer over the chance to have a big blow-up week for DeVantz Smith. I wouldn't. Yeah, I can see that. It's been a rough few weeks for Devante Smith, but if you don't keep playing him, you're not going to get the good ones. I mean, you put it like this. Like Joshua Palmer's probably getting around seven half PPR fantasy points or seven and a half, something like that. If Devante Smith goes out and gets a goose, you're losing those points and his floor is zero.

Yeah. But the ceilings of these guys, when DeVonte Smith- It's 30 points or 11. Exactly. 30 points are 11. So now you're leaving 20 points on your bench so you can have a seven-point safer floor. And that's only if it's a full goose. So no, Devante Smith should be in your lineup. I can tell I'm going to go back and forth between Rashi Rice and Josh Palmer all the weekend. Yeah. I... There's something to be sad about the potential to nullify the Mahomes numbers. Sure. I mean, it depends on the rest of your roster. It's a tough home. It is a strange and weird thing. And I wish people had a little bit more context of that advice because you're going up against a juggernaut, a real super team that looks unbeatable. So I think, you know, in general, like I would start Rushie Rice over Joshua Palmer in 99 out of 100 leagues.

More context. I have Isaiah Pacheco. Right. So I'm also hoping for a running game. Yeah. I mean, if the rushing touchdowns come and Mahomes has a bad game, that's your path to victory. But if that happens. You just said that whole thing about like Josh Palmer, if you don't, seven points you're giving up. Yeah, but Rushie Rice's ceiling is not 30 points in this game. Well, it could be 20? Probably not. Probably not. Yeah. I have Craig Reynolds. Any option there? I would just make a trade to get a better player. Why don't you do that? I could do that. Yeah. Thank you, Jason. You're welcome. I look forward to your text later. The 49ers are 5 and 1. The Vikings are 2 and 4. Monday night football. The last two games of the week are kind of fun. Last 3. Yeah. The 49ers coming off their first loss of the season. You know, Brock Purdy gets a get-right game potentially here with the...

You know, the Vikings defense is not something to be afraid of. We're doing the countdown on McCaffrey. Now, he was a full, did not practice on Thursday? Mm-hmm. Feel like that's kind of a big deal. But they'd play Monday. Yeah. Today is a day to watch, right? Yes, today is the day. So you would have really kind of expected. People get Wednesdays off all the time, the veteran day of rest. This is their Wednesday as far as the practice schedule for a Monday night football game. So I'm not letting that. dictate anything yet. But today's practice, if he's full D&P today, then you start going, all right, I need to make preparations to have a player pivot in this game so that I can hold on to Elijah Mitchell, leave him in my flex, wait it out, and hope that, or Jordan Mason, if that's who you believe is the guy, I'm on the Elijah Mitchell side.

So who are those options? Because if someone has Elijah Mitchell or Jordan Mason, because this is the Monday Night Football game, they can't just plug them into their lineup and no. So they have to have another pivot option in case Christian McCaffrey's active. Is that Joanne Jennings? No, it's Elijah Mitchell is playing either way if you're going to wait that out. Really? Yeah, Elijah Mitchell has the second option in a game like this. It could be a blowout where McCaffrey's hurting so they need to put some load on someone else. Like Mason, you can't start. at all if McCaffrey's healthy. But I would fine playing Mitchell. We're talking about like Jaliel McLaughlin alongside Giovante Williams or some of these like peripheral runners. Like I think Mitch, this is the game. Mitchell, he's practicing. Last week he had no practice basically. That's my opinion. Like I'm not playing Joan Jennings over Mitchell even with McCavry active. I guess that is the.

That's the answer. But we're watching for Debo as well. I mean, Debo is it did not practice. Both players are, they were optimistic about, but, you know, this is one of those things where the Injury Blitz podcast, which comes out later this afternoon after practice reports, is going to be a big deal. And if you want to listen into that, because you're in this situation, join the foot.com. Matthew Betts, our injury expert is going to talk more about those injuries. Iyuk is obviously a lock. Purdy's a stream. You know, Kittle. Just close your eyes, man. I mean, it's just you hope. We hope so. We've talked about this. It's always the same advice for Kittle. It's always start him because he is going to have monstrous productive games. But his floor is lower than most other tight ends out there. Even his floor is lower than middling tight ends you wouldn't play in fantasy. It's so weird. It's because he's such a great blocker. And Kyle Shanahan is a schemer. He looks at a matchup and he says,

This is how we're running our offense today. And so that's why he's so involved in the passive game in some games. Because they go, this is where I want to exploit it. This is how I want to use Kittle in this game. And then in other games, they're going, oh, you know, right now they've got, they're dealing with their left tackle being injured. So maybe Kittle is just a complete offensive lineman in this game. And the entire game is just used to protect Brock Purdy to throw the ball to Brandon Ayuk a million times. Yeah, you laid it out very clearly. I mean, that is the truth of the situation. And Kittle is no longer the peak of his career where you have to force the ball to him a few more times and the consistency's there. Yeah, and my advice was earlier this year and will continue to be, I mean, I didn't draft Kittle anywhere because, you know, I don't want that inconsistency. But if you've got him, get that big game because it will come again. I mean, he'll have a monstrous 20-point game.

in the next three weeks. When it happens, you trade him. You trade high on that because, I mean, that's what I would do. I just don't like having him. Kirk Cousins and Primetime has a 36% career win percentage, and I don't think it's going up in this one, being heavy underdogs in a quickly lost season. At home, he is averaging 332 passing yards, but the matchup is not good. 49ers defense has the most interceptions in the league. That kind of puts you in a real rough position, in my opinion, with the Addison Osborne starts. Like, you know they're the guys. But, like, the ride, the ride was real bumpy last week for KJ. Osborne, or I'm sorry, for Addison. Like, he was three for 28 on the day. Yeah. And so. And they needed him. And he was out there, 86% of snaps. You just need to know, like, his floor is probably, like, two fantasy points in this game. Yeah. In a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers who will.

just be in Kirk's face all day. His floor is low, but I still believe in the talent for sure of Jordan Addison. He's got a touchdown in four of six games. They need him desperately in this matchup, and as a rookie, he will continue to progress. He'll progress in talent. He'll progress in scheme fit. He'll progress within the offense and the designs for him. So, you know, I would still start Addison. ahead of KJ Osborne. This week I see them pretty similar as far as like bad floors for both. Osborne or Gabe the Babe? Gabe. Okay, Hawkinson, you play him. For sure. Okay, Deshawn Watson update for you. Throwing again on Friday got almost all of the quarterback reps. And so we think he'll be back out there. And then more confirmation that Gibbs looks to get the load.

at least out of the reporters there, just so you know, Jason, I may or may not have glanced at the, you know, last year we had some injuries in Los Angeles, right? I mean, Mike Williams. Joshua Palmer scored three touchdowns on the year. Do you know what team he scored all three against? Oh, was it the church? Or was it the chiefs? Oh, man. In fact, he scored in both of their matchups. Do you know what his highest fantasy output of the year last year was? It was 28 and a half fantasy point. What? Two touchdowns. I do not remember that game. Two touchdowns against.

The Kansas City Chiefs. So you're playing Palmer. I'm going to play Palmer. All right. We got there. We got to the answer. The whole point of the show is figured out. All right. Let's wrap the show up. Thanks. Everyone. No, I'm sorry, Jason. I think you will really, really enjoy this next segment. Fantasy Face Off, presented by Draft Kings. Don't make your lineups on a Wednesday. We are six weeks into the season. And Jason, you have three first place finishes. Yes, I do. Andy, you have three first place finishes. That is correct. And Mike has five second place finishes. So this past week, you made an early lineup. Your family was going out of town. I will, you know, I'll stress that, you know, might not have mattered. But maybe it would have. You never know. You could have updated it. We did ask you to. I was busy and I forgot it. I meant to update it. I had demarcato in my lineup. He wasn't the only reason.

But I think I was going to make an entirely new lineup. Yeah, that would have been great. And I forgot. Yeah. And then I see the Slack message of you guys in this segment talking. And I go, oh, shoot. I forgot to make a new lineup. Well, the end result for that is this. Wheel of shame. All right. Let's see what you got. It was a new wheel. Yeah, we got a new wheel. You can spin it. And then we'll see what. Nancy. See what you end up on. You see a cowboy or silly wabbit or. Oh, what is that one? It says bad luck, Chuck. Bad luck Chuck. Oh, no. That's a good nickname for you. I think, uh, oh, have I been injured? You've been injured like all of your players this year. There's a little neck brace for you, Jason. We've got to get that neck secure. Get you prepped up for the weekend. I mean, all your players are injured. You should probably. Hmm.

Ooh, that just barely fits. I think it goes the other way. Okay. It goes the other way. And I want you to protect your face. So we got you a little face card. Very nice. And you've got to take the glasses off for that one. So hopefully you can still read. Well, maybe he's going to put him on over the glasses. Yep, no, he's got him safe. Okay. Well, it hurts, though. Can you protect your, uh, can you go ahead and put your arm in a sling there? For sure. Um. But Jason, I mean, it's perfect timing because you picked up Friamuth and he's hurt already. So a little bad luck chucked today. Yeah. And it makes complete sense because my lineup last week had. You look straight up injured. I mean, I feel injured in this. And I think when we're done with the show and I take it off, I will have had new injuries. You have some marks. Let's jump in. I mean, let's give our lineups for this week. And.

Mike did get his lineup submitted this morning. Brooks will be reading his lineup. Jason, do you want to go first with your quarterback? Sure. I'm going to go hopeful that the touchdowns are passed in in your almost upset by Matthew Stafford. Okay. You know. Yeah, he does have a little Kurt Rambas vibe going. Yeah, so I've got Matthew Stafford as my quarterback. How much is he? He's 6,000, I believe. I spent 6,000 as well. Oh, no. But I spent it on Gino Smith. See, I went back and forth. It was actually cheaper. I think I think Stafford was a little bit more. Okay, well, Gino is 6,000 and I picked him up against Arizona. Mike, who's Mike's? Mike's got Gino. Gino, all right. Well, that's all right. I'm pivoting. Oh, Matthew Stafford, $6,500. Yeah, well, it's too late for that. You're running backs. I mean, this is where I kept the integrity. I didn't make a pivot, but I really should have. Go ahead.