Starts of the Week + Week 11 Breakdown, Over the Bottom! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/14

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. It's football time. It's defense time. I mean, it's a 48 point over under, Mike. I know. It could work out. Oh, yeah. It should. You just seem so, you know, it's like it's predetermined. Like you just think it's going to be sad. That's, uh, I mean, that's kind of how we speak about things on this show. No, I know. We're predetermining what's going to happen. I just think they're pretty sure it'll be a defensive battle. I think the defenses are very, very good. Okay. No Latimore. We did find that out. We thought maybe he'd be back out there or out there for the first time for Washington. Also, if it ends up not being a defensive battle and it's just points galore, then hey, that's good. You're welcome, everybody. No, that's right. You talked it out of existing. I jinxed it. Yeah.

If it happens, it's because I said it was going to happen. If it doesn't happen, because I jinxed it. Okay. Win, win, win. What do you call that, Mike, the main character? Main character syndrome. Yeah, yeah. Welcome into the fantasy footballer. Jason Moore, Mike, right, Andy Holloway. Deucer's Alley. Full house. Full house. Everybody. For now. Everybody there right this moment. Papa Josh, the Falcon, Al Borland over there. We've got starts of the week today. We've got the fantasy forecast. We've got the parley partay. One of us. He's a clown. It's me. And so we got some, I think we're on our way to Triple Crown this week, by the way. I do too. I've never thought that before. I know I'm on the way to a Crown. So.

You can check out the ultimate dashboard bonus weekly episodes of the show, the community over at join the foot.com. Let's jump right into the news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Well, Brian Robinson, Jr. will be part of that defensive battle tonight. Remove from the injury report. We'll play. Practiced in full, which is a great sign. Again, very tough Eagles defense. I've seen a lot of questions. I've had people DMing like, Oh, man, do I play Brian Robinson, Jr.? I'm a little bit hesitant. He's been awesome this year, a touchdown machine when he's active, but I am hesitant with how good Echler's been, coming off of a hamstring issue, missing the last two games, tough matchup that it might just be a little bit more of a split. I think if you don't get the touchdown tonight, you'll be disappointed in Brian Robinson. It's not to say you need to bench him, but if I'm close, you know, a tiebreaker for me, I would go elsewhere, even though he's on Thursday night.

Aaron Jones limited in practice. D.K. Metcalf practiced in full. Let's go. Naji Harris didn't practice on Wednesday. Does that concern you after him leaving early at all? It's, it would be a little bit more extra concern. If Noggi is going to take a Wednesday off normally, I don't care. But because he was hurt in the game, it's you got to pay attention. T. Higgins, limited. Oh, well, okay. Is that good? Yeah. All right. For T. Higgins, that's fantastic. I saw a report come out that they don't expect T. Higgins to be on the team next year. So breaking news. Okay. I mean, they could have moved him at the deadline. They didn't. Could have gotten something for him, but they are still in it. So the Bengals. George Kittle did not practice on Wednesday. Hamstring. Hopefully he's going to be okay.

He has just been so dominant. I don't think enough credit has been given to George Kittle's season so far. We've talked up, you know, how good Brock Bowers has been as a rookie sensation. But Kittles just, he's gone somehow a little bit under the radar for how good he's been. I feel like we've given him tons of credit. Really? Tons of, Mike, I think we've given him credit. I think we have. But what Jason is saying is just that he's dominating. Yeah, he is absolutely crushing for. He doesn't have one bad week the whole year. He doesn't have a down. He doesn't even have like an average week. He's just dominating the entire season every single week. You see it changing? I do not see it changing. No. The hamstring would do that, but otherwise. Yeah, I mean, he's played through a lot of injuries. I think that Christian McCaffrey makes this offense better. I yuk being gone. I mean, we have enough data on Kittal being dominant when either Iyuk or Debo are outside.

I think it just continues. So some context, he is currently averaging 14.9 half point PPR or half point points per game, not half point PPR. That's way too many things. But he's at 14.9 last year's number one tight end on the year with Sam LaPorte at 11.5. Exactly. So that's like he is. That's what I'm saying. He is a difference maker right now. He is, uh, he's scoring a ton of touchdown. Yeah. It's what I think he's on pace for 15. He's already at the second highest touchdown total of his career. The bills, despite being favored, they are missing Dalton Kincaid didn't practice on Wednesday. Amari Cooper Limited. Keon Coleman already ruled out. So monitor, you know, I was really hoping that Kincaid could have been a buy week feeling for me this week. And instead he got hurt and he's just had a disappointing year. He has. And Isaiah Pacheco unlikely to play this week. I think that game is going to be a real disappointment.

I mean, I hope I'm wrong. You know, the Buffalo Chiefs. I mean, that's, that's, you know, a game of the week type of matchup. I can't wait to see it. But I'm just saying for fantasy. I think it'll be a disappointment. The defenses are both playing well. Offenses still banged up. So the news about Pacheco being unlikely to play. Like, it's more of the fact that we are asking the questions. Hey, is Pacheco going to play this week? So we've, we've been mentioning that he seems like he's going to be back shortly. So. If he's on the waiver wire, I would be scooping him up. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Starts of the week. Now, Mike, you said that starts of the week this week. It was a little bit more difficult for you to kind of hone in on a player. Absolutely. Because with the starts, you know, sometimes we do the, well, this is a great player. And I'm saying, I think that he could be number one on the week.

Or we're looking at, you know, middle-tier players who have great matchups that we're trying to say, this is a player, we're giving you confidence that the opportunity is right there for that player. This week is just weird. With all the by-weeks and what the matchups are, it's difficult to find those, like, lower mid-options where you're like, oh, man, I think he's in a great spot this week. So it's just a weird week overall for matchups. Well, who did you settle on for quarterback? So I'm going with my stream of the week. I'm going to Russell Wilson. He gets to play the Baltimore Ravens, which that's a great matchup, is whatever QB is playing against them. And Russ is playing well. If you're not paying attention to the Steelers, Russell Wilson is playing well. It's funny to dunk on him because he's such a weirdo. He missed her Unlimited. Unlimited. Got the dangerous sandwiches, all of those things. But he's been a top 10 QB in two of three weeks.

The yards per attempt, it is where we need it. It's got the big potential. And it's just the Ravens. They're a pass funnel, 31st, and schedule adjusted points to the quarterback. Yeah. Unlimited diarrhea. I mean, look, a guy who's sharing that type of content, he's a weird guy. But it's, like, I am. I'll be honest. So I'm, this morning, I'm making my draft Kings lineup for tomorrow's episode. And I'm staring down Russell Wilson there. It's like, man, he's a good value. But then I'm like, But the problem with that is then I'm relying on Russell Wilson. I get it. I went with, I'm going with Justin Herbert on Sunday night football against Cincinnati. I love that. The passing attack for the Chargers is, you know, trickled up and up over the last few weeks, getting Quentin Johnston back. And the truth is, is you know that Cincinnati can score. I mean, this game has been bet up to the second highest total of the week.

Cincinnati is 28 in schedule adjusted fantasy points to the quarterback position. So I think Herbert is a really good start, and it's rare that we've been able to say that. I've actually thought a lot about this Chargers team with hardball and what the weapons that they have, their defense has been very good. This team feels like they are two superstars away from a Super Bowl. That's the way it feels to me. Like if they had, you know, you think about how San Francisco has. Just been so disciplined on both sides of the ball. They have a bosa on one side. They've got a DBO on the other, a CMC. It just feels like the charges are missing that one. They got a bosa. They do have a bosa. They do have a bosa. They do have a bosa, but they're missing that one special offensive weapon on because I think Herbert is a Super Bowl winning quarterback. I just feel like they're missing that, you know, they're missing their chase, their Jefferson, their CMC, their Jemir Gibbs, whatever it is, you know.

Yeah, maybe it's Ash and Gianty. We'll see. Yeah, no, I like that play. I came into the dock to make that my start of the week. I love the matchup. But since he was taken, I went with C.J. Stroud, who has been a massive disappointment so far on the season. They're in Dallas. Don't worry. I know it's usually a controlled environment except for that sun, but it's Monday night football. Oh. So the sun should be. Wait, where's the moon going to be? Yeah. I'll tell you who knows where the moon is right now. Jerry Jones. Oh, he knows. You can tell where the moon is a year in advance. The moon man. But, you know, he hasn't been a quarterback one since week four. However, he hasn't had Nico Collins since that time. And this is really about Nico Collins, who is currently, I believe, are consensus wide receiver five on the week. Like, there's no doubt if you got him, you're playing him. His splits through two years without Nico Collins are so telling. 19 games with Nico. He's averaging 21 fantasy points a game, six games without.

He's down to 16 fantasy points per game. And if you look at Dallas's defense, it's really falling apart. I know they've got Michael Parsons back. It's a home game. Hopefully that just means that their offense can kind of keep up with the Texans a little bit, which might be difficult. But they are 31st in Schedule adjusted fantasy points, 31st and explosive pass rates since week six. So I like CJ Stroud. I think I would be happy to start them this week. All right. At the running back position, I have Kareem Hunt. I'm with Jason that the Buffalo Chiefs game could be just an all-out brawl here on the, like who can score the most points where it might be tough. But Cream Hunt is one of the guys who I actually feel really, really confident in. And we got one more week, at least of him since he's taken over in week five, he ranks number one in touches per game. Like this, it's so wild. They have just.

Fully trusted him. They've turned everything over to him. And then talking about the matchup, the bills. 31st and schedule adjusted points to running back. 31st and explosive rush rate allowed 30th and adjusted yards before contact. This is a team you can run on. And Kareem Hunt, like I said, over 24 touches a game. It's such a good spot. Well, his former running mate. Nick Chob is who I'm going with at running back. It was a hesitant selection this week, but I'm trying to find somebody that's not just that auto start. And facing New Orleans, the fact he got a buy week after three games of 14, 18, and 16 opportunities, he's due for a return to form type of game. And you're playing the Saints who allow the six most rushing yards per game. I think the way you win this ball game is that balance.

not giving the ball to James too much. This is a good matchup for Nick Chubb. So I think you can start him RB2 with RB1 upside. Would you start him over Brian Robinson tonight? Yeah. Yeah, I would. I would. I think that with Robinson coming back, the workload could be somewhat down in Philly being so good. I would do that. Yeah, it's the first week. that I have any type of confidence playing him. Yeah. At running back, I'm going with Josh Jacobs against Chicago. Very, very similar to your Kareem Hunt pick, which I love. You're facing a defense that is very good at shutting down quarterbacks and wide receivers. Where you beat them is in the running game. That's the leakiest part of the Chicago defense is the running game. They're 22nd and scheduled adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. 29th in yards per carry allowed at 4.8. And you've got the fifth most.

yards per game in the NFL with Josh Jacobs. So I think Josh Jacobs, who's averaging 20 opportunities a game, is going to be needed to beat Chicago. He's been looking good. We're just waiting on more touchdowns. He's actually been pretty, pretty darn good on a per touch basis. And if a touchdown comes this week in Chicago, it should be good. The Packers, I mean, you know, coming off the buy, I expect them to look really good. At wide receiver. We talked about him on The Difference Maker Show on Tuesday. It's Joanne Jennings, 11 targets last week. When he's on the field, like Brock Purdy just goes to him, a 26% targets per route run, 2.84 yards per route run. This is elite stuff, averaging 71 receiving yards per game. The matchup is great. I think this is kind of the last time before the weekend. If you want to try and get Joanne Jennings,

I really do believe is a strong flex play for the remainder of the season. You're going to have to do it now because, well, I mean, trade deadlines are coming up for sure, but it's like, I'm going to wait one more game. I think the price is going to go up if you wait. Well, I'm going to take the, maybe, you know, the shot at the number one overall player of the week or at least the top five guy. George Pickens. George Pickens, no team's given up. More fancy points to the wide receiver. position in Baltimore over the last five weeks. This is a divisional battle. I think it'll be a back and forth affair. Both of these defenses are, they're good, but they're not going to shut you out type of defenses. I mean, we saw some of the battles that the, you know, Steelers defense had with Denver this year. And I just think this is a very exciting, fun game. Pickens is always a big play away from a big game, but now you've got this matchup that makes it.

Really, really easy. Baltimore just, they're dead last in like every metric against wide receivers. The matchup's good. The trajectory for Pickens is great. The addition of Mike Williams only helps. I like Pickens this week. Pickens is why I'm willing to start Russ. I know the matchup is there for Russ, but if you didn't have a player like Pickens, it would feel far sketchier. But I think that George is just. he's about to take off. Yeah, and it's not every week that you know that Pittsburgh is going to have to throw a lot, but Baltimore's going to score. So I, you know, again, I think that connection should be good. For wide receiver start of the week, I'm taking Andy's Undertaker, my guy, back from the dead, Calvin Ridley, versus Minnesota. I like that. Yeah, since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, 34% team target market share.

44% of the team's receiving yards. Both marks are number one in the NFL over that span. In Minnesota, hard to run on, easy to throw on. They are seeing the second highest opponent pass rate for that reason at 66%. They rank 28th at schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. So the matchup is there. The targets are there. Everything is lining up at home for Calvin Ridley to be good against Minnesota. And the tight end starts. These are where it's tough to find someone. We're like, oh, man, this will, I'll put on the underpants. I feel good about it. But it's just, it's Tucker Kraft from the Green Bay Packers, gets the matchup against Chicago. The tight end is the position that you can beat them. Should you be throwing? And he's just, he's been a touchdown machine. Jordan Love likes to get his touchdowns through the air. And look, he actually talking about Tucker Kraft. He only trails Brock Bowers in terms of yak.

this season at the tight end position. So it's a good player. Yeah, he's probably in a good spot to score another touchdown. Yeah, you're looking for that spot start option this week. And so I want to give you some confidence that you can throw out Johnny Smith this week. If you've got Kate Otton on by, Trey McBride on by, John who Smith plays Las Vegas 29th against tight ends over the last five weeks. I'm sorry, since week five, Johnny Smith, six targets, five receptions, 52 receiving yards a game. He even got it done last week was a about an inch from a touchdown on a big play. Very good after the catch. And, you know, you got word that now Hunter Henry's banged up. And how much confidence do you have in Jake Ferguson with Cooper Rush? And, you know, like all of these peripheral backup options are feeling a little bit worse right now along with the byweeks. So I think John, who is a play. And for me, this week is hockey lees, hockey lees, Hockey, TJ Hoggerton. Back to this, huh?

Well, yeah, I mean, he's, I mean, why would you not be? Last week, nine targets, eight for 72 on just 46% of snaps. He was targeted on 32% of his routes run. And over the last three weeks, you look at the Titans defense, they've seen 25 plus percent of their opponent's targets going to the tight end position. You had Sam Leporta with his six for 41 and one game against him. You had Hunter Henry go. 7 for 56. Even Will Disley caught five balls last week against the Titans. So you've got a guy that's getting more and more involved, very necessary to the offense and the matchup that is good. He's our Titan 6 right now on the week. I'd start him ahead of guys like Evan Ingram, Kyle Pitts, Sam Laporta. I think it's a good matchup and he's a good player. I'm just curious. Have you been able to move him yet in League of Record? I have a couple trade offers sitting there waiting for me to hit except or not. They just need a little.

A little value boost. I'm not giving him away. He's really good. All right. We will go ahead and take a quick break and then we'll jump into the forecast. Okay, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers on by this week. We'll kick it off with a Packers team that's six and three traveling into Chicago, who's four and five. It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by Draft King Sportsbook. Good work, producers. Never done that before. I'm sure you have. No, I have a lot. So, yeah, the Packers and the Bears. Draft King Sportsbook Line, Green Bay, minus five and a half, over under just 40 points. It gives Chicago just 17.5. No more Shane Waldron, but, you know, the problems are not going to be fixed overnight with Chicago's offense, taking a ton of sacks, kind of a...

disinterested DJ Moore and over the hill Keenan Allen and an inconsistent Roma Dunseh. The shameful lack of usage of Cole Commet who seemed to unlock the offense for three weeks and then suddenly disappeared. You know, Matt Iberfluse could be gone if they lose this game at home against Green Bay, a division rival and they, you know, they dropped a four and six. It is. Do you expect them to have a resurgent performance just because of the shift at offensive coordinator? Or is this going to be more of a Jets situation? Well, I mean, so I don't know the data on offensive coordinators being let go. We have seen, we did the research and saw that when head coaches are replaced, the week one bump, the first week is actually really successful. They see the Saints. Yeah, exactly. And then after that week.

It all goes to crap that, you know, just like the team that, you know, needed to fire their head coach, how you would expect them to perform. With the offensive coordinator, being that the game is at home, I think you could see a little bit of an offensive bump here from the Bears. That would be very exciting, but. It'd be nice if it was a better matchup than the Green Bay. Yeah, I mean, the truth is you're hoping that the Bears have a great offensive performance, not for the Bears side of the ball. but for the Packer's side of the ball, because I can't imagine right now you have the confidence to start many bears. You can start DeAndre Swift. He's been involved in the running back position you need him. But DJ Moore, Romo Dunes, A. Keenan Allen, Cole Comet, Caleb Williams, I don't know how you start them. You just hope they do enough where the guys that you do want to start over on the Packer's side of the ball have to keep going. You know, you love what you saw from Jaden Reed.

To start the season. You like Josh Jacobs, though, right? Yes, exactly. The game script. Look, so embarrassing for Chicago last week against New England at home, scoring three points. That was, that's just, that's unimaginable. It makes you very not confident. Swift has kind of returned to Earth a little bit after his upshot, but you're right. The opportunity should be there. But beyond that, I wouldn't have confidence with anybody. Yeah. So when it comes to the Packers, obviously you're going to start Josh Jacobs. The question at wide receiver, I think most people are starting Jaden Reed this week. You got enough by weeks where he's pretty much locked in. But what are you doing with, you know, are you willing to take a shot on a Christian Watson, Dantavian Wicks, Romeo Dobbs? I'm okay with Dobbs because the the targets are there. I'm not expecting, you know, in week six and week seven where he was a top 15 play. I don't expect that.

But he should see six or more targets. And you just hope he scores. And what about Jordan Love? Are you starting him here? Because right now the Bears schedule adjusted on the season, they're number two against quarterbacks. They don't give up a lot in the passing game. Coming off the buy, I'm going to, you know, it always depends on your options. But Banker Mayfield's on by this week. Kyle Murray's on by this week. I know you start Bryce Young in all your leagues. He's on by this week. Of course. It, yeah, your, your stream? options like it's do you have faith in bow nicks or russell wilson or do you just want to play jordan love so it's it's a it's not an easy decision this did i say banker mayfield is that what you is that what you said banker that's what i heard yeah huh i want to be a banker i'd rather him be a laser than a banker uh jordan jordan love has has been you know

just very good yes he has he struggled those last few games but i i credit a lot of that to the groin injury yeah i mean he left one of them early and then the other one was playing hurt so i love i love that he's coming off of the by week a little bit of extra rest for him yeah i i do i think he's a low end starter this week um okay yeah jaden reed i'd get him in there but no i don't i don't have a I don't have the guts to start a Wix or a Watson. I would, yeah, I would bench those guys this week, if possible. Tucker Crafts your start of the week at tight end, Mike. Jacksonville's 2 and 8. They take on the 8 and 1 Detroit Lions. The lions are 13 point home favorites. Opened at 12 and a half, so it's not large enough. So, D.K. has the over under at 47. That gives Detroit 30 points. Hmm. So. Hmm.

Yeah, I mean, this is one of those games where, you know, this should be the automatic survivor pool victory no matter what type of situation. And I don't expect to be surprised by it. But, you know, Mack Jones is getting the start. You don't really have confidence like, is it possible we could literally be telling you not to start a single Jacksonville Jaguar this week? Are you slipping Evan Ingram into that group? Evan Engram, his D.K. reception line is at five and a half. So they expect him to still. see targets like it wasn't it wasn't amazing last week but it also it wasn't the worst thing we've ever seen and then he passed five and a half last week right six six receptions yeah but he did but he was not good six for 40 but it's not I'm saying you're at least getting something out of him I don't think Evan Ingram is is like a oh man I got to bench him and go get one of these nasty tight I mean I would play let's put that I mean I play Johnny Smith over I do not think Evan Ingram gets to 10 fantasy points in half PPR.

I also wouldn't play Johnny Smith over him. I was lying right just now. Okay. Thank you for your honesty. That's the line right about there. They're saying it's not the weak for it. So he's probably in. And then ETN is. Did you play some Hill? Tucker Kraft? I would not. I would play Kraft. I would not play Hill. The, so the matchup is awful for the running backs, of course. But Tank Biggsby got hurt in the game. He was a did not practice on Wednesday. So if there's ever a time where E.T.N. should just have a huge workload. And Dearness Johnson was also limited on Wednesday. That's the, that's the upside here. You hope he catches four to five passes. I wouldn't start Travis E.T.N. if he was my only running back on my roster. The targets, the targets haven't been there. He doesn't have Trevor Lawrence. It's the Detroit defense. Yeah. I mean.

Anyone can end up with a pass interference call at the one and then Travis E.T. and get a touchdown. But honestly, if he has three or four options from the one yard line against this Detroit team, I'm not sure he gets in the ends. Would you? He might still be on the waiver wire. Who knows? But the hot name, Audrey Estimate. Yep. Against the Falcons. Yeah, I would. Yeah. Okay. What about Gus Edwards is back? For sure. He's playing Cincinnati. Sure. Personally, I would play Gus Edwards ahead of estimate. I think that's not consensus. All right. I think Gus gets a touchdown. What about one of the, what about Madison? Let's just, let's just say everybody. Okay. I didn't run. I didn't know it was, it was that bad. It just seems like very, very low odds to be happy. I agree. I mean, I would say you had low odds to be happy with Lawrence. And you're sitting here in the last three weeks. Yeah.

Travis E.T.N. is averaging 2.9 fantasy points per game. Averaging. With his high being sub five. Yeah, I mean, he's outside the top 36 at the position on the year. I know he missed a couple games. I'm not dropping him. I still think things can turn around for him specifically because he was injured. So they were working him back. Now Trevor Lawrence is not there. But he could be back. But he could come back. The matchups get better. I think. Travis ETN has brighter days ahead. I'm not saying he's done for his career, but this week, no way. And I, it's Brian Thomas is the same way for me. Brian Thomas against Detroit this week, you can, you can put him out there as a flex, but I'm playing Juan Jennings over him. I'm playing, um, you know, T. Higgins with one less quad over him. Uh, just being on this side while it's you two being the ones disparaging Travis ETN is, guys, it feels good. It feels so good. Yeah.