Finding Late Round RB Sleepers | Just The Tips

Welcome to the fantasy footballers Just the Tips. I'm your host today, Mike Wright. Our goal with this mini series is to give you a deeper look into some of our research projects. The main show doesn't always have a space for things like this, and we wanted to find a home for this type of information. Click that subscribe button and let's get into it. Let's talk ambiguous backfields. Fantasy football is a game full of chaos and situations where we can't be fully confident of how they will shake out. It's tempting to swing on the pendulum with bullish takes like extreme dogmatism. You know, I know exactly what's going to happen. Or to shrink back in fear when you honestly can't see a clear path. Scared players do scared things.

What if you could leverage that uncertainty and fear and find players who break out at the running back position that the rest of your league remains paralyzed by? We often throw out the word breakout to describe a player essentially tier jumping as a true fantasy difference maker for your team. At the running back position, it can be tough to find underappreciated assets considering everyone in your league is also desperate to find these players. Every year, there is a cohort of running backs drafted outside the top 24 at the position that end up vaulting into running back one or running back two status. It can often seem random and unpredictable, and yet, there is a method to the madness if you know where to look. Over the past five years, an average of eight and a half NFL teams per year have lacked a top 24 drafted running back in fantasy football. That makes sense, right?

Where it gets interesting is of those teams without a top 24 drafted back, an average of five players from these teams typically exceed expectations and break into the top 24. The number one marker for finding these late round gems as targeting players that are on projected elite offenses. Last season, Players like Chase Brown won people titles, despite the fantasy community at large being unsure if it was Brown or Zach Moss as the bangle you wanted. Rico Dowdell ended up a top 25 running back but was left for dead because so many people, not me of course, were terrified of old man Ezekiel Elliott. And J.K. Dobbins gave drafters multiple spike weeks and finished inside the top 24. Not to get too tutti.

But the Bengals, Cowboys, and Chargers were the three teams last year that we identified that fantasy players should be targeting for late-round running backs. Ambiguity is something to use to your advantage. Instead of ignoring these situations or being passive, we want to be aggressive, taking multiple shots at different backfields. Listen, not taking a stance is in itself a strategy. Inaction is still in action. Instead of focusing purely on player takes like, I like this player, I don't like this one. This strategy leans into the chaos of the NFL season while simply leveraging the ADP market to your advantage. We might not know who the lead back will be, but what if all we need to know is which offenses could be good for fantasy? Historically, running backs drafted outside the top 24 who break into it are usually part of a top 14 scoring NFL offense. To put that figure into perspective, we are looking for teams with high team implied totals capable of averaging 22 points per game.

Let's examine the ADP for running backs and project which offenses will be strong. Remember, we're looking for players drafted later than they should be because the projected workload and situation is murky, but we assume they are part of a high-performing offense. For 2025, here are the ambiguous backfields worth highlighting. Washington. Despite ranking number one in EPA per rush as a team in fifth in total yards per game a year ago, managers don't know how to approach Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Eccler. The commanders have the seventh highest team applied totals according Draft King's Sportsbook, but Robinson, the running back 31, and Echler running back 44 right now. I get it. Robinson doesn't feel like a sexy pick and Echler is old, but both are worth shots late to fill out your flex spot or bench. Kansas City. The comeback attempt last season for Isaiah Pacheco was pretty rough. Because of that, his ADP is all over the map, so check our ADP platform comparison tool.

He is currently outside the top 24 on ESPN Yahoo and Underdog. With Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell in the mix, it seems drafters don't know what to do with the fourth year running back. The Chiefs have the fifth highest team applied total for the season and are favored in their first eight games of the year. You might get out to a hot start with a running back who began last year on fire before an unfortunate injury. Chicago. Listen, DeAndre Swift is not a player I usually want to back. But this is the lowest ADP of his entire career at running back 29. The Bears ranked 16th in team-implied totals for 2025, and the offensive line is massively improved, adding Joe Tunney and Senator Drew Dalman. Pro Football Focus has this unit ranked fourth overall under new play caller Ben Johnson. Throw out last year's Bears metrics and be willing to take the ADP discount on Swift and follow the news about the Bears running back room because whoever wins that backup role,

might just become Ben's new David Montgomery. Dallas. This comes down to what do you believe about the Dallas offense and does DAC stay healthy? The Cowboys rank top five in plays per game, seventh in red zone plays per game, and fifth in points per game when DAC is the starting quarterback over the past two years. Being drafted outside the top 30 of the position right now, Giovante Williams seems like the incumbent starter and he might retain a consistent role thanks to his past protection abilities. Fantasy managers completely forget Miles Sanders. But if you played last year in week 18, he was the running back six. And word out of Dallas right now says Sanders is looking better than Giovante. And don't forget rookie Jaden Blue who had a nice receiving profile coming out of Texas. Taking shots late on this backfield across your leagues could be fruitful if you believe this offense reenters the conversation as a top half scoring unit in 2025.

None of these teams currently have a top 24 running back in ADP, but their offenses are expected to perform very well. The likelihood of a running back from these teams outperforming their draft cost is high, making them a worthwhile, low-risk, high reward pick. Thanks for watching. If you want to access all of our fantasy footballers draft information, check out the Ultimate Draft Kit. Let us help you dominate your draft. See you next time.