NFC South Breakdown + Tier Talk, Gamblin' Man - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/23

Dominate your draft in 2024 with the Ultimate Draft Kit Plus at Ultimate DraftKit.com. This is the one tool that will get you ready to go for your fantasy football drafts, all of our tiered rankings, all of our player projections down to the yards and the touchdowns. Everything you need being updated, not some outdated magazine, but updated each and every day by our team or sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values, and a whole lot more at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Jason Moore is here. I'm Andy Holloway. And we're joined by a bear. Mike will be back tomorrow. Jay Gris sitting in. They say if a bear is running at you, that you don't want to turn and run. They have a chase instinct, Jason, and that you should just yell at it. And a lot of the time, it is a fake.

charge unless that is a polar bear in which case kill yourself because because you're about to get eaten alive i do believe there is no way to escape the polar bear charge yeah i just gave it to you yeah no without like a rocket pack or something yeah um what oh no he's got graphics yeah for those listening at home one sorry two those graphics were pretty cool al boyle and feeling very proud of himself Very few opportunities with Jay Gris. Way to go. Thanks. Jay Gris, if you're new to the show. Shout out to Beaked, eBay the graphics. If you're new to the show, welcome. We're happy to have you this season. We do when one of us is missing, we have a cardboard bear just sit in their place on the set. It happened about a long time ago, seven, eight years ago, and I don't know why. Yeah, and honestly, at this point, listening in so far today here Tuesday,

You're probably thinking this ain't going to help me much. But we are going to help you. Oh, we are. Jay Gris won't. No, Jay Gris is, he won't help you much. But this show is focused on you and your team. And Jason and I are happy to be going through the divisional breakdown of the NFC South today. We have a lot of fantasy football news to talk about. We've got footballers news to catch you up on. And like I said, Michael will be back tomorrow. So if you, you know, the tattoos will be returning. Twitter at the FF ballers. You can follow Mike at FFFHitman, Jason at Jason FFL. I'm at Andy Holloway. You can come see us live in Los Angeles, August 24th at the Palace Theater. Tickets at ballerslive.com. There are still some tickets available for that live show. It's a 10th anniversary megala show. It's going to be a very special show. We would love to see you there. And then the Ultimate DraftKit at Ultimate DraftKit.com.

Jason and I have made some tweaks over the last couple of days to certain players that I'm sure we'll discuss today. But it's always alive. And you can get into the draft analyzer. You can import a team, see what we think about all of your position groups, and even what fantasy football are your team aligns with the most. Yeah, this is the time to get access to all the tools and all the resources. August is around the corner. Drafts are going to be here. Get a little bit ahead of. you know, your loser league mates who are going to wait till that, you know, August 20, whatever draft. That's when Papa Josh buys it. Right, exactly. Yeah, late August. Don't do that. All right. A quick question actually comes in from our Apple podcast reviews. I saw this come through from the ego. But he had a good question. Said that, I'm going to summarize this a little bit, says that he just bought the UDK.

Has regretted nothing, but has a question. Okay. Can you explain tier-based drafting as it pertains to choosing between two positions in different tiers? And to be clear, are tier-based rankings in the UDK, the running back rankings? There's a tier one, tier two, tier three running back. This is a common question we get. And how does like a tier three running back compare to a tier three wide receiver, how do you view those? And can you explain that? Yeah. So tier base drafting, the way that we have always had this work best is you want to separate it positionally. And you don't want to necessarily equate one tier to another. A tier three tight end doesn't mean that's the same as a tier three running back or a tier three wide receiver. It's going to be different from league to league, right? Is your league?

three wide receivers starting, then, you know, tier two wide receivers might be more important than tier two running backs. The entire purpose and the theory behind it is what you're doing is you're looking at the value left at each position on the board when you are drafting. You could say, I'm almost out of this tier at this position. Maybe I should focus there. Or you might look in certain rounds and say there's... you know, there's plenty of people in the same tier across all positions. Take whatever position works best for your team. But it helps you determine when to move away from a running back or when to pull the trigger on a running back because you're saying basically there's one or two of these guys left at this position. And that's it's positionally tiered, not across positions. Well, and it might be worth, I don't know if we've ever talked about it this way, but like I'm looking at our UDK right now, tier four running backs is Henry, James Cook.

Camara mix in an HN. That's the buckets or the bucket, tier four bucket. Now those players, we have the ADP on there too. So we have where they're going normally. And that spans basically the top of the third to right now when Camara is going in the top of the fifth. So if you combine the knowledge of the tier with where players are going, you might make that decision when you get into the fourth round saying, hey, I know that tier four running backs are drying up. I don't want to end up with a tier five running back on my roster. Therefore, once I see three of these players go, I know it's my time to act. Yeah, but you also might say, oh, but I see that this guy's going in the fifth round. I'm in the fourth round. I can still get this tier and go elsewhere. So using both together is great. And we also have, in the UDK, we've got an ADP comparison tool so that you can see from platform to platform.

Give me a name. We were talking about Kyron Williams earlier today about the fact that on underdog, he's middle of the third round. A lot of times when we're drafting on ESPN or Sleeper, you know, he's a higher second round pick. So, you know. 2.03 on ESPN, 205 on Sleeper and Yahoo, but an underdog where wide receivers are a premium, he's discounted over there. Right. And so there's a lot of different resources. But I think combining. The tiers with ADP is probably your best way to end the draft with the most talent. Give me one name to look up on that comparison tool that you think will have variability across platforms. Xavier Worthy. Okay. That's, you know, when you're talking about rookies and you're talking about... I want you to try to put underdog sleeper ESPN and Yahoo in order. Oh, come on. Come on. All right. Where do you think he's going the highest? I think underdog...

is highest. You're correct. 605. Because of variance. I would say sleeper is next. Yes, 704. And then Yahoo and then ESP. Yeah, yes. You got it. 910 and 10.06. Now, you're a cheater, so you might have it up on your screen, but no, no, that was good. Well, it's pretty easy when you, when you talk about explosive rookies because rookies are going to be, I think the sharper crowd is usually on underdog this time of year. And then when you're talking about dynasty leagues of people doing more rookie stuff, sleeper's really overtaken that. So you're going to have people on sleeper platform more attuned to rookies. I basically just went like smartest to least smartest platform players. Well, no, no, no, no, no, no. Here's the truth. It's what you're doing the most of and win because mock drafts and stuff don't go live on ESPN and Yahoo as soon as they are on sleeper. Right.

And the underdog is not apples to apples with underdog. I always want to stress that because best ball is a different. We love having the data because we know how people are feeling about certain players, but broadly is how I look at underdog. I look at broadly, we think that Xavier Worthy is explosive, worthy, therefore he's in the sixth round. Oh, worthy. But I don't look at that as apples to apples. When we get into August, you know. People are going to catch up on ESPN. Xavier Worthy is not going to go at 1006 on ESPN in August. No, no, he won't. But this time of year, that's basically what I was saying. And also, obviously, it's a different game. It's an entirely different game on Underdog because of the best ball nature. All right. Let's jump into some news. News and notes from around the league. We actually have a lot to talk about here, Jason, because training camp starting, baby. That's it. Training camp is here. Joe Burrow, fully cleared for contact ahead of training camp.

Please be good. T.J. Hawkinson will begin on the PUP list. Don't worry, man. Well ahead of schedule. Oh, that is the report. Kevin O'Connell said he's well ahead of schedule. Yeah. Because if you're ahead of schedule, you're on schedule. Now, if you want to be ahead of schedule, you've got to be well. So you're saying if he's well ahead, he is ahead. Could be. I think Hawkinson could surprise with his activity and how soon he's back out there. And the tight-in position. I think he can get out there and contribute even if he's not at 100%. I would agree completely. He could push the injury quicker, but I think you're going to see a little bit of like what happened with Javante. Javante was not expected to be back week one. He got back early. He lost a step. But at tight end, losing a step, you know, what is it going to be like eight, nine yards per reception if he's lost a step? Would you put Hawkinson on your IR with a 10th round pick? Oh, 100%. Yes.

Okay. If I've gotten IR, that's the league where I'm willing to draft them. Jonathan Brooks? Jonathan Brooks. Loves to read. On the PUP list. Some people call him Jonathan Books. I mean, he's just such a scholar. Yeah, I mean, you and him. He got to do the cookie. That was quick with the draw, man. I mean, he's, you had your coffee today, Al. Very nice. Jonathan Brooks, we'll talk about him with the NFC South breakdown today, but starting on the pup, I mean. He is going to be a risk. I mean, I know you like taking him in mock drafts. I know that Kyle took him in the last one, but he is going to be a risk. I think people's opinions on Chuba Hubbard are going to be all over the map. I mean, that's probably somebody that... He's going to be a massive risk. He's going to get off to a slow start. We're not even sure if he will be ready week one. Timeline-wise, he should be. I think he'll be out there week one, but he will get off to a slow start. He will not be a contributor to start his career.

And he will be a fantastic player by the end of the season. What do you do with Truba, though? Because Chuba will be a free, maybe starting running back. Sure. He's a 13th round pick. You're saying if you wanted to, I mean, if you're playing zero RB. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. And, you know, you're going to the seventh, eighth, tenth round before you're grabbing running backs. Tuba's a fine pick because what you're looking for is a lot of times you're looking for someone that could start strong because you're going to be the waiver wire minor. And so when injuries come, that's where your roster is going to be very vastly improved. Dave Canales did pretty good things for a shot like in the passing game. That's part of why I love Jonathan Brooks. But if he's behind scheduled, then Chuba could be a real value early in the year. He was the RB9 for a six weeks stretched in the season last year. Whoa, whoa, what's this behind schedule talk? I said, if it's not behind schedule, no one's behind schedule. Well, I mean, if he's not way ahead, I didn't hear him say he's way ahead.

Yeah, so he's right on schedule. Okay. Tucker Kraft on the PUP list for the Packers, Jaden Reed will begin on the NFI, picked up a toe injury. You can watch him run all around camp. He's fine. Yeah, Jaden Reed's going to be just fine. Giants plays Theo Johnson on the Pupp list to open camp, tight-end rookie. Darren Waller is retired. Theo Johnson was a fourth round pick. It's tough for rookie tight-ins to contribute. Daniel Bellinger hanging out in the nasty boys. Yeah, if you're in some tight-end premium and you want to just make a worthless pick, pick them up. Giovante William Somaget-P-Rine, according to the Denver Post, Troy Rank believes that they could be battling for one spot in the backfield. Yeah, I mean, don't take this news because I saw some people overblowing this. This is a beat reporter's thought. You know, this is not from a team. This is not from, um, yeah.

You know, someone, they've got to write. They've got to write stories. And so it's like, hey, maybe they're, maybe they're battling for that last spot. He doesn't know. This is not like. Speculate it. Yes, this is not. But it also, he also believes that McLaughlin and estimate are locks. Well, it makes sense. They're both younger. They're both under contract longer term. I feel like I owe you a gobble, gobble, and you were real close with McLaughlin there. Oh, man. That was the last episode I got. You got me real good. You got me real good. I need to go back and watch that. You were saying something. I don't remember. It was basically just that Estimé is, you know, a rookie they drafted this year. You expect him to make the roster. Yeah. McLaughlin came on strong last year and he's under contract for seven more years. So Giovante and Somaget, if they only are going to carry three running backs on the roster, they'd be battling for it. So.

It makes sense. Giovante is going to be on this. I will be blown away if Javante Williams is not on this roster. Cam Acres signed by the Texans. Congratulations, man. On a roster. Just for another check or two before roster cuts. Rashid Shaheed, one-year contract, the Saints. We'll be talking about him today as well. Any other news back there, Dropman? No, sir. Okay, okay, okay. Take a quick break. Come back with the divisional breakdown. I'll be honest when you gobbled at the end of the last episode two things happen one I wasn't sure how badly I spoke because right now I am learning to speak with a fake tooth in my mouth and two you scared the living crap out of I noticed I was pretty I was pretty startled when it happened I wasn't sure if you were because you hit the gobble hard you you're a guy who hits a hard gobble yeah that's what they say about me that's true

See? You didn't see it coming. I was a little afraid. I'm sorry. I apologize, listeners. Let's get divisional. All right, we continue with the NFC divisional breakdowns. We got that started on Thursday last week. Or actually, was it Thursday? No, it was Saturday. Because Thursday we did a mock draft. Saturday we got it kicked off with the North, the NFC North, talking all about those exciting. high potential teams. And now, today's a different discussion with the NFC South, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, looking at players, rookies, coaches, offensive changes, how things could function. We just talked about Dave Canales, right, arriving in Carolina. So there are changes. And then there are some teams that made commitments to not changing because it worked last year. Like Tampa Bay brought some people back and want to re-roll what they did.

Sure. I mean, ironically, they lost Canales, the person you just mentioned. He goes interdivision. Yep. He was their offensive coordinator. Entering the 18th week of the season, there were three NFC South teams alive for the crown last year, if you remember. Tampa was 8 and 8, New Orleans was 8 and 8. Atlanta was 7 and 9. And all four teams have a new offensive coordinator. So it's not just Canales departing. But that's wild. And all of them are young. Like Tampa, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina. They went out, Clint Kubiak in New Orleans, Zach Robinson in Atlanta. We'll talk a lot about that. Brad Edzick in Carolina and then Liam Cohen and Tampa. Yeah, I mean, I think all fantasy managers love when there is a younger next generation. You know, you're going to get more passing. You're going to get more, you know,

pre-snap movement and it's going to be a faster pace of play. I mean, generically speaking, that's true. It's not the old world. We're, you know, Greg Roman going to come in here and slow it down, play defense and run the ball. Here's something wild. All 32 NFL teams have a different offensive coordinator than who is in that position in 2022. No, that's not true. Kyle, are you with us today? That's impossible. I did my job. It's true. It's true. But that was only two years ago, Kyle. You're telling me two years ago. And we haven't played in 2024 yet. Two years ago. Every single offensive coordinator in the league is no longer in that job for that team. Correct. Wow. Yeah, I'm trying to go through some of the like stalwart best offenses and you go to Buffalo and they changed last year and you go to Kansas City and like Nagy arrived, right? After the.

the 2020 season. And so what's what about Ben Johnson Kyle? They transitioned to him. Yep. Yeah, they did in 2022. I mean, I'm just saying I'm sure he's not got the entire league in front of his face right now. But, um, but that says something about how these off season like shows are going to go like that. If you're really good at the position, Ben Johnson, they wanted to hire him away this year. Yes. People wanted to hire him. Bobby Slow it in Houston. They wanted to hire him away. Those are two people that had to choose. Eat it, Kyle. Wait, did you find, is he wrong? He's wrong. Ben Johnson was the offensive coordinator in 2022. He got the job in 2022. Yeah. Yeah. No, that's the transition. Kyle's right there. What do you mean? Yeah, that's fair. If the transition happened in 22.

That means they had a change in 22, which means 2022 started with the difference of offense coordinator. No, 2020 started with Ben Johnson. I thought you just said they transitioned. No, Kyle said. Oh, Kyle. That's when he got the job. Before the start of that season. He was the entire season in 2020. During the year. I get it. I get it. I'm on Kyle's. Was it mid year? I mean, Kyle's not wrong on the job in 2022. Yeah. Midyear? No, he got the job in 2022. Yeah, see. The whole season for 2022, he was the offensive coordinator for the lion. But that's a calendar year. 2020 is a can. How could you be on Kyle's side on this? In 2022, he was the OC. Look, I'm dunking on this. Okay. So if I asked you who the offensive coordinator of Detroit was in February of 2022, who was it? No one knows. Okay. Okay. That's why I'm on his side. He also says you're a turd in Slack. Also, it is July. Ask me who it was in July.

All right. Because I know that. I don't know why. Do you have an opinion here, Al? Who's right? I'm staying out of this room. Okay. Let's start with Tampa. Tampa was 9 and 8. They beat Philly in the wild card. That was a surprise. Lost to Detroit in the divisional round. Went into the season with a six and a half win total. It was a good year for Tampa. And it meant good things for fantasy. Mike Evans was a my guy? believed in Baker's deep ball. He went out and put together a pretty consistent season. They also had a pretty easy schedule. So they kind of, you know, this year they're going in with eight and a half win, Vegas prediction. Yeah, they have the first place schedule this year because they won the division, which means their first place games this year, San Francisco, Baltimore, and at Detroit. Their schedule is not quite as easy this season. What's nice is you do have some consistency there.

You're not bringing another quarterback in. That was one of the question marks around them last year. Mike Evans, back in business with Baker. That connection was awesome last season. So that was one of the biggest fantasy football wins for you. You could have streamed Baker at times. And Mike Evans was dynamic. He was one of the best receivers in the game. He was the fifth 30-year-old wide receiver to finish top five. since 2008. So Devante was one of them. Antonio Brown, Jordan Nelson, Brandon Marshall. That's not normal. That doesn't happen a lot. No, I mean, he's a great wide receiver. Right now, you know, he's being drafted as the wide receiver 15. I think that's right around where he belongs. That seems fair. You would expect him to kind of have a re-roll of last season. The question... Well, a re-roll would be... The re-roll of last season as far as, you know, archetype, usage, talent. The question is touchdowns.

Last year he had 13 receiving touchdowns. That's not a very easily repeatable number. And so touchdowns are the one thing that we talk about on the show. They're not a very sticky stat. The last four years, 13, 14, 6.13. Yeah, I was going to say, now when you're Mike Evans, a little stickier. But it certainly, you know, if that goes down to eight touchdowns, which is a great season, is not going to feel like the huge win that it was last year. And also he was. much lower drafted last year. Now, if on the value was insane, though, the flip side, though, the flip side is Chris Godwin, who had, you know, 80 receptions, a thousand yards, we talked about him recently, but Chris Godwin only had, what, two touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns. Yeah, Godwin was like awful. But if he goes to six or seven receiving touchdowns, which is definitely in his range of outcomes, I, I've just started to wonder recently if Chris Godwin is undervalued.

Or if you think he's just toast? I think we talked about this a little bit. Toast is too strong. Bread? I don't generally compare players to bread. If you were to, what type of bread would he be? Godwin? Godwin is what type of bread? Gosh, what is Godwin? Week old? Oh, week old. That's a type of bread for you? It's not, like a pumpernickel or something. Yeah, I mean, you could, again, I don't, I don't generally compare them to bread. I just look like, you know, you get bread from the bakery, right? Yeah. And when you crack it open, like Godwin a few years ago, it was awesome. Yeah. But it's been a while. And, I mean, a long while, 2019, while. Since then, it's not been great. I mean, he scored nine times in 2019 with Brady, 120 targets. He's reliable.

He's going to catch a bunch of passes, but he's going to remind you of like, you know, if he doesn't get into the end zone, it's just going to be like Elijah Moore plus. They've talked about moving him back into the slot. He is a very good player in the slot. He'll be another year removed from that knee injury. I think where he's going right now, wide receiver 37, I'm willing to take a shot here or there on him. I don't see. You can be that guy. I don't see, you know, a top 15 season coming in. But if you're talking about.

you know, just a solid weekly flex option that you can get in the, you know, maybe the eighth round. I'm okay with that. Unsurprisingly, a Todd Bulls team was very good on the defensive side. Fifth in points per game, given up, fifth against the rush. They were only 23rd in points per game scoring. So for fantasy, it's a little bit more of a distortion, right? Because Rashad White was amazing. Mike Evans was amazing. Baker Mayfield was a big surprise. And yet, you know, 23rd in points per game was not impressive. They bring Baker back. He did not turn the ball over a bunch to let the defense keep them in games, and then he was pretty clutch at times. They only have nine targets vacated on this entire roster. So we had teams like, what was it, the Chargers? Was that over 300? Yeah, the Chargers, the Bills, there's teams with a ton of vacated targets, and then, you know, they've brought in, they drafted Jalen McMillan.

he was wide receiver yeah a wide receiver and then they technically signed sterling shepherd if he makes the roster as well yeah and bucky irving running back in the fourth round rashaw white last year was the rb two from week seven on 22 opportunities a game 100 total yards plus um in average 16 fantasy points ran a million routes um not the most efficient runner and so i think that frequently you know, Mike didn't like him because he wasn't giving you the metrics between the tackles that you wanted. But they also struggled on the offensive line. Like this was something that they struggled with last year. They had some injuries. They don't go into the season projecting top 15 on the offensive line. But like I think a lot of people want to know, will the shoe drop on Rashad White? I think the shoe is going to drop a little bit. But he's being drafted as if the shoe dropped a little bit. He's running back 13. He's not being drafted like.

the running back two that, you know, he finished the second half of last year with. I, you know, with Dave Canales leaving, there is a little bit of fear here that it's not going to be the same system. They're not going to check it down as much. They're not going to leave him on the field as much. They drafted Bucky Irving, who is a talented pass catcher in his own right. I've seen the way that Bowles talks about Rashad White, how much he absolutely, like he is a key, you know, core piece to the team and a core piece of the offense. He's going to still be.

a workhorse type of running back, but I could see it come back 5 or 10% this year. And if it does, Rashad White wasn't blowing us away last year. He was just consistently getting a ton of work every week. And so it ended up working. You take some of that work away. I think, you know, Rashad White is a mediocre pick to me. At his ADP? Yeah, I mean, running back 13, I think is near his ceiling. I like him. I like him because the consistency, I don't care about Canales leaving when it comes to Rashad White. There was a comfort level between Baker and Rashad White last year. The offense isn't changing at all. I don't understand why you would pivot from what worked. And White was the most reliable when it came to catch percentage in the league. So in that regard, you know, is he going to be, I mean, what was his fantasy finish? He was running back seven last year. Had nine total touchdowns.