2022 Rookie Review Show + Star Search, QB Calculus - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/16

Are you all in for? And I'm saying I don't care about the ACL injury. I think he comes back strong. After that, Mr. Matthew Betts had words for me. So we went back and forth. He has a teacher said see me after class. Yes, teacher said see me after class. We went back and forth. I did a bunch of. more research on this specific injury in conjunction with a great article that Betts wrote the impact of ACL surgeries on fantasy performance for running backs. It's exactly what you want. And what he found in his data, which is very compelling, is that year one, they are less efficient than they were prior to the injury. Year two, they are fine and great. And we've seen this a lot. The most similar injury to...

Brees Hall is Saquan Barkley. He had the same exact thing where it was an ACL plus a meniscus. No other knee damage, but not just the ACL by itself. We saw Sequin come back last season, the season before this one that just finished, and he was disappointing. And then he was awesome in year two this past season. So I think that there's- He was kind of on his way. It's like the Sequin Barclay year, you always want to find a comp. So I don't blame you. It's difficult to gauge what he was doing because the first two weeks were rough. And then weeks three and four of that season, running back 10, running back three. And then the ankle injury and the season just derailed from there. Yeah. And still low efficiency in those four games, though, to speak to Betts and Jason's point. Yep. And to be fair to.

What Sequin went through, he got injured the year prior in week two versus week seven. So a little bit more time for recovery. That being said, if you look at the entire list of running backs who have had the ACL and then are coming back, there are only a few of these guys that are actually young, highly drafted prospects. Jamal Charles had it happen, his first ACL. Todd Gurley had one in college. You have a few, Dalvin Cook had one very, very early on. Right. And those players who were exceptionally young did very well. They did very well in year one. 1700 yards for Jamal Charles after his ACL. So I am still in on Breesall year one removed, but it'll be even better year two. Yeah, I guess that...

It's such an interesting dilemma because for somebody who I think might be in love with Breece Hall, a little bias. That would be you. I am curious. Take lock. I am curious what you'll be able to pass on or whether you'll be able to pass on him for somebody in this first year removed from the ACL. Like I'm wondering if you're in the draft and you're staring down the Josh Jacob situation or ETN. Like is Breece just going to surpass that category of running back? I mean, I know we don't know everything, but it's fun to ask the question this early. Yeah, it's certainly fun. I mean, I was in a draft recently that's already going. I took. Kenneth Walker, who were about to talk about. Kenneth Walker was off the board, but I did take Breece Hall at the two, three turn ahead of E.TN, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Pollard. So I put my money where my mouth was. Well, and a lot of folks are doing that. The RBA eight off the board right now in basketball drafts. Kenneth Walker.

Second round draft pick. Played 15 games, 228 for over 1,09. It really took off in week 5, 47% good, 13% great, 27% bust. Thoughts on Kenneth Walker. He was a big contributor for fantasy players. He will be interesting because, like, he's a fantastic running back. He, He is a home run running back where you're, which Sequin's kind of in that as well, where you're basically getting zero to negative yards or you're getting a huge run. And that kind of happened pretty frequently throughout his rookie season. It didn't stop him from being great for fantasy purposes. Like you said, he took over essentially in week five. That's when the Rashad Penny injury happened, I believe.

and ended up as running back 16 still at the end of the season. He, we had hoped that he would catch more passes. And, like, that's the difference between Walker and Breeses is we already know that the Jets are willing to heavily feature Brees Hall in the passing game. Should Zach Wilson not be the quarterback. But the identity of the Seahawks, it's almost like did they find another Marshaun Lynch type where they can just, they can go back. grind it out, and then hit the big plays over the top to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. So I like him a lot, but he will certainly come with a, with more risk than some of those other guys because he doesn't have the, like he's not catching 50 passes. That's probably not happening. 17, 15 plus yard runs. Third most among running. Yes, yeah, you get, but then whatever his numbers are on the, gaining like zero yards. I think he's near the bottom of that list too.

Is that a team, Jason, in Seattle, where you think there will be a tremendous amount of stability of what we saw last year? It seems that way on the surface. Like, we expect Gino to potentially be back. Same wide receiver room. They drafted so well last year. Seems like they may be more predictable than some of these other scenarios. I certainly think so. I mean, a curveball could be thrown here where, you know, well, they... surprisingly draft, you know, a quarterback that falls to them that they're in love with. But it does appear at first glance as of this moment that Gino will be the guy. They had two outstanding rookies on the offensive line who should be better next year. Kenneth Walker is a really, really solid running back whose future looks bright. My biggest question mark is, will they resign Rashad Penny? That's it. Sure. Damien Pierce, fourth round pick.

46% good games, 8% great, 23% bust, didn't play after week 14, but it was a pretty good ride. It was high volume. It worked. Yeah, it was high volume, 220 carries in the first 14 weeks, 39 targets, four touchdowns on the ground, just under 1,000 yards, missed the time with the ankle sprain, was eased in in the beginning of the year. But Damien Pierce had a very important role. You got a new head coach over there. What is, he's been one of the more difficult players for me to think about for the upcoming year. Just because of the draft capital, could they look for a compliment? Are you in on Damian Pierce after this rookie year in the breakout? I would say I'm in from the talent perspective. After everything that happened from in that off season of the meteoric rise of.

Damien Pierce in the average draft position from like, oh, hey, you can get a screaming value right now on Damian Pierce. It looks like he might end up the starter to people sort of seeing him. And then where did he end up at like the fourth round or something? It was, which he quickly got to a place where this is a very, very risky draft pick. And it worked. I mean, looking at what he did, even missing a month of the season, he paid off. What you're hoping is that the Texans are smart in their rebuilding. I mean, they're at the very bottom with the Arizona Cardinals. They need to add a lot of different positions to this team. Hopefully they don't do something stupid like adding a day three running back. They shouldn't.

I don't think they will, but it is definitely a concern if Damien Pierce is sitting there on your dynasty squad. This is healthy year two James Robinson. This is a player who. Not as extreme, but I get what you're saying. Because Damien Pierce was drafted. Sure. Robinson was completely undrafted. I'm just saying it's a situation where you've got a rookie who comes in who is so talented. The team has so many needs and they really should not bring in another running back. because they should just go forward. And so Damian Pierce to me, if they don't bring in another running back, Damian Pierce, I will draft him happily. I think the offense should be better next season. And he'll return and be a great running back. But because they didn't invest a lot into him and they have a lot of capital.

I'm not positive that they won't look to replace him, even though I think most people would look at this situation and say, you're running back's good. You've got a lot of holes, Phil, other places. Well, and it could be a veteran signing, too. It could be something like that because he was injured. He did miss the end of the year. You do probably, though, have a rookie quarterback. So not that Davis Mills and company were setting the world on fire, but they're at least experienced quarterbacks that make place here or there. The rookie might be better. It could know. What they got last year. It could be. Or you could have put Kenny Pickett's rookie year onto that team, and that would not work out very well for Mr. Pierce. There were five other rookie running backs that fit that kind of okay, some fantasy impact category. Second rounder was James Cook, two third rounders in Rashad White and Brian Robinson, Jr.

And then you had a fifth rounder in Tyler Algier and a seventh rounder who looks like he has a bright future. Pitter, pitter, pitter, pitter. In Isaiah Pacheco. Yeah, do we have that? Can you find me that Isaiah Pacheco drop? It's very important to me. Thank you. All the way to the Super Bowl. I say that's him on the parade. That guy runs hard. He runs really, really hard. I think he has a very bright future. Like if you are looking at those five, who do you think we'll take the biggest step forward next year? And I'm speaking, of course, about fantasy production, you know? Sure. Being more reliable that would be in that good category, not the okay category. I mean, Pacheco, it's probably Pacheco, if you're putting the odds on it because he didn't have the opportunity to be the guy at the beginning of the year. Clyde Edwards O'Leary was having a, like, people forget it. I'm not saying that you need to remember this for your strategy next year, but Clyde Edwards O'Lear was dominating.

just dominating for fantasy purposes to start the year, scoring boatloads of touchdowns, then gets hurt seemingly lost his job. We don't know for sure because he was. You forgot about the not being good at football part for six weeks before they're getting hurt. Sure. I'm saying. I'm just reminding people. No, no, I said lost his job probably. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see in the Super Bowl him activated because that could have at least given us some type of glimpse. what this version of the Chiefs would look like. Are they going to put him back into a rotation or not? So if Pacheco is the guy from the beginning, he has the most room to grow. But of these guys, all the arguments are the same for Tyler Algier that we gave for Damien Pierce of... Oh, I agree completely. He's alone there? He could be replaced, but he was the dude. Like, if you got to watch any Falcons games at the end of the year, he was incredible. He...

was not a full-time starter for the whole year, and yet he still had over 1,000 rushing yards. It's not going to catch a ton of passes. He can do it, but it's not likely how Arthur Smith is going to do it. But if they want to continue to establish things, and Algeria is the guy, he could grind it out to being just a real nasty, not a high-ceiling guy, but just does like a, who's the guy from the Bengals I'm trying to think of? P. Ryan? No. Olden days? Yeah, the older days. Wow. Cedric Benson. Yeah, Benson. I was going to say Ben, I thought you were going Ben Jarvis Green Ellis. That type of running back as well, where it's just he's big enough that you can give him 250 plus carries. I've seen you got 210 this year. But he could just, he can absorb a lot of wearing tear and just.

and be a gross running back too for you. I agree with everything you've said on Pateco and Alger. Those are two good picks. If I had to say whose situation could change. Like, Alger could be replaced. We could see that very easily, or at least them bring in an additional and now he's in a timeshare. The one guy that I think could go from a timeshare to being the dude would actually be Rashad White because Leonard Fournet, that's a contract they can get out of. And if they do, with Todd Bowles there, I still think they're going to be in the quarterback market.

as far as looking at Derek Carr, looking at Jimmy Garoppolo, trying to bring in some veteran where they can win now. And if they let Fournet go for cap reasons, then Rashad White could have a much better situation. I genuinely see a clean path for all five of those names. Like I see Algier and Pacheco, the arguments that you guys made. Singletary is a free agent, right? Singletary is a free agent. And James Cook was the highest draft capital of this group and looked good in spurts. You talked about Rashad White, and then Brian Robinson, like Antonio Gibson could be cut. I mean, they can save $2.7 million in a final year of his deal. Oh, that would be. And Ron Rivera's on record saying, like, I want to run the ball twice as much as I pass it, which we might not enjoy, but Brian Robinson owners will. So, you know, those are the five names that could take a step forward. The not relevant names.

I am curious who you're keeping your eyes on. There's a third round running back in Ty Davis Price. Not him. There's definitely not him. Right. Although his situation now that I come to think of it, he's Eagles, right? No, no, no. That's Sermon. Oh, that's Tray Sermon. Oh, that was their other third round. That was their other third round. Every year they have a third rounder that doesn't get relevant for the next year. But now with Christian McCaffrey there, I mean, goodbye. Ty Davis could be the backup. There's four fourth rounders. Zemir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, Hassan Haskins. If Josh Jacobs was to depart the Raiders, Samir White would have an opportunity. Isaiah Spiller seems fixed back behind, not just Echler, but Josh Kelly. Yeah. Pierre Strong, he had a moment in time, but it doesn't seem like he will ever be the guy. He will be one of the guys. Haskins is maybe the most interesting to me because Hassan Haskins plays behind Derek Henry, who's going to be.

older and should an injury happen again to him, Haskins could have an opportunity that surprises. Did you see anything, though, in the Haskins game that made you, like, I didn't see anything that made me say, oh, man, this is the next man up. Yeah, he just, I mean, he didn't have a whole lot of opportunity on the course of the season, right? He had one game where he played more than 20% of snap. That would be the, that's what I'm talking about. Like, did you see anything that week where you were, when, because they sat down, they sat down Henry. Yeah, I mean, 12 for 40.

It was the Dallas Cowboys, and their defense was playing extremely well. It was also. Yeah, they played all backups pretty much. It was also Malik, right? Malik. Willis, a quarterback. Oh, I don't remember. I'm fairly certain that that was the case for that one week. I think that's a fair question to ask because it, let's go, week 17. No, that would have been. Nope, that would have been moved to dogs. The guy that I already forgot to think dogs. Josh Dawes. Fresh off of the. The, what, Detroit practice squad. You guys want to talk about some whiteouts? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Here we go. This is the year. Okay. We've got some names. Garrett Wilson, 10th pick overall, 35% good, 47% bust, 18% great. He must have been terrible. He was great when he was the only Wilson on the field. Well, well set. Well set.

There's only room for one, Wilson, on this New York team. Yeah, his splits with Flacco and White, 11 targets a game, six receptions a game. 14 fantasy points a game. Yeah, and he, you know, I said it on the last show. What was Zach doing? Just throw the ball to Garrett Wilson, man. Well, it's the throwing the ball part that really slowed him down. I'm just saying six. You say just throw the ball to him. It's more of a calculus thing for Zach. Right. Six targets versus 11. Throw the ball. Just throw it at Garrett Wilson. It's tough because when you snap the ball, a lot of times quarterbacks look to throw it. And a lot of times quarterbacks look to run backwards. And that's more what Zach Wilson was really enjoying. Back into the right. Back into the right. Run, run, run, run, run. Throw the ball out of bounds. Play a safe. Garrett Wilson had the most targets by a rookie wide receiver since Bolden.

In 2003, he is the guy. You just need stability at the position, and you're going to get really, really good production. He finished a wide receiver 19 despite his Wilson issues. Yeah, I mean, he's the dude. There's no fear. You've got to find out who his quarterback is next year. If it is anyone half decent, Garrett Wilson, I'm a little terrified of how high he's going to be drafted. Like, you know, he's, he's. Probably going to be a top 10 drafted wide receiver next year. Chris Olave was the 11th pick overall to the Saints. Through the first nine weeks, you were getting to the point where you felt like you could start a lave every single week. You looked forward to it. And then it kind of slowed down. I mean, he had no games that were in are a great category, 40% good, 33% bust. But you saw it with your eyeballs. I mean, you knew that Chris Olave was.

the future of the position for the Saints early on. And this was a, you know, this was a wide receiver room. You were worried about Landry and Michael Thomas and other options. And then all of a sudden it was just a lavee. And actually break down the numbers. So Garrett Wilson played 17 games, 147 targets. And his final line was 83 for 1100 yards and four touchdowns. Chrisel Lave in 15 games. So we have two fewer games. 119 targets. So. Fewer on the targets get 72 for 1,042 and 4. I mean, statistically, just right behind Garrett Wilson, yet two fewer games and what, like 28 fewer targets or so. You, for someone like myself who had him on your roster, what was frustrating in the second half is you didn't get any of the big plays. In the first half of the season, he was a big play magnet. It was a James Winston would take a shot down the field.

And if you pull in one of those, your day is made in a way. So in the second half of the year, it was much more difficult to count on him. The offense was really, really bad. But everything you saw on film, the ability to produce. You got enough of it from Olave, just like with Wilson, where you know the future is bright. Yeah, I'm bringing it up to be like, Oliva and Garrett Wilson are right next to each other. Are they both ahead of this next guy to you who, like Christian Watson is a polarizing. player. I think we all know he has a tremendous talent. We don't know if Aaron Rogers will be his quarterback. His stretch of elite play, it was this four-game span where he scored, I think, 600 touchdowns. Yep. And then after that, and obviously before it, it wasn't, you know, he was dealing with injuries before it and, you know, couldn't really get out of his own way. Couldn't get back on the field without re-injuring himself. Had some dud games in weeks, 15, 16, 17. Those had to have hurt for fantasy players.

Well, remember, he got injured in week 16. Yeah. Only played 38% of the snaps. And then the following game was still dealing with that. So this really was a season where he was either injured or when you saw him on the field, he flashed. He showed elite speed, size speed freak. I mean, you just do a little crossing route or you, you know, run him like the first play of the season, just down on a nine route. And he will beat whoever. is the defender there as far as in just a foot race, I feel like I'm going to be in on Christian Watson next year. Let me sound one alarm on Christian Watson, only because we have a cast of characters he's a part of. Rookie wide receivers with seven plus receiving touchdowns on fewer than 45 receptions. Here are the names, because I think it's almost indicative of what kind of outlier type of touchdown numbers they are. Martavis Brian, who.

Size speed freak, right? Big play freak. What could have been? Gabe Davis, big play. What could have been? John Dotson. What could be? What could be? And Anthony Miller. Yeah. What was? So, you know, you can mention Romeo Dobbs in this conversation, too. Very talented player. Definitely more of a possession receiver, I think, than what Watson is. I wonder if next year, if Rogers is back, if we're looking at both those players saying, You know, what do you need to add to your fantasy roster? Do you need to add big playability? It's not that Dobbs can't do that, but Watson had more than twice as many touchdowns. Or do you need more of the possession guy? Like, do you view the gap between those two as large? Yes, I do. Okay. Yeah, I mean, Christian wants to buy a lot. Yeah, obviously whether or not Aaron Rogers is there is a gigantic facet in whether he can score enough touchdowns.

to be a hyper-productive fantasy player. Or the next Deonté Johnson with some other quarter. Yeah, and I do put the odds very, very minute that Aaron Rogers is back for the Packers. I would say it's, you know, 25% chance that he plays there because if he comes out of his darkness retreat and decides he's not retiring, he wants to play, then... Well, if he doesn't make it out. Well, sure, so then he's not part of the Packers. How does one find the door? in absolute darkness? Yeah, how like... They find it within themselves. How big is the lodge? How big is the room? That's a good question. Because if it's too big, you will have trouble. Do you, but do you want it bigger? Like, if it's pure dark, do you still want to be able to, you know, stretch out, do some calisthenics? I think you're right. I think the shaman turns the lights on at the end. Oh. Ah, my eyes! How does it make you feel as a Packer fan, Al, that, uh...

Aaron Rogers might have played his last snap. Is that what you believe? I do. Yeah. And I think it's time. Is it time? Yeah. Yeah. It's also got to be what you want. Do you have to then go on a darkness retreat to recover from, you know, to move on from this era? I'm going to see the results from Aaron's. See what it does for him. And then I'll assess if I want to do that or not. They got a first round quarterback just chilling, waiting to go play. And if they can get a couple number ones from Rogers end of his career, that's great.

That's fair. A couple other names here that were contributors. Drake London. Oh, Drake London. You're still in love, Mike? So, Drake London's season was... Okay. 29% good, 6% great, 53% bust. Enough to know that he's going to be a dude in the NFL. Like, he's going to be a player. But the way that it unraveled of you drafted, and I'm sure... Many people had the experience that Kyle and myself had where you drafted Drake London late. You have three weeks of more of just like, of fantasy relevance. And it's like, holy crap, we did it. We got this rookie receiver. He's ready to go. He's going to be a part of this part of my fantasy lineup. And then you just kept.

destroying you week after week after week until you finally bail on him and then signs of life finally happen to get at the end. Are you just living the Kyle Pitts life in a different name with Drake London? He is the Kyle Pitts of, I want to say the Falcons, but it doesn't work. No. Because Kyle Pitts is the Cowan Pitts of the Falcons. You could say the Cal Pitts of the wide receiver room. That'll work. It's unbelievable to think he had the highest. you know, target share among all rookie wide receivers since 2014. And he is a dominant player. So you would assume that his fantasy finish would have been much better than it was. But you really can't discount 72 for 866 in a rookie season. That's still a very good rookie season. He looked good. He looked like a guy is like Mike said. George Pickens, 47% bus, 35% good, 0% great. Definitely flashed often.

um seventh most deep targets in the NFL averaged up the target of 15.6 which was saying something for this team he makes highlight catches uh yeah he made mistakes too i mean there was it was very up and down you could never know when you could play him but 800 yards as a rookie sure four touchdowns and probably a lot more opportunity in his future i i really wish he showed more when chase claypool left i was very disappointed it looked like he was on his way to having a rookie breakout season they ship off Claypool and he doesn't really step up much as his numbers didn't change. And so now what you're hoping for is just, you know, a year to step forward from him and a year two step forward from the quarterback. He certainly showed enough that he can get it done. But I do believe his hype is a little overblown by highlights. You know what I mean? It's like if you go up and mossa dude and you get a little bit more pub, you're all over Twitter for that great play.