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Main show · September 16, 2022

Week 2 Matchups + Market Corrections, Wheel of Shame - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/16

RSSSep 16, 2022 · details onlyYOUTUBESep 16, 2022 · transcript indexed
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Week 2 Matchups + Market Corrections, Wheel of Shame | Fantasy Football 2022 - Ep. 1289

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Episode notes

Week two introduces market-correction talk, a chaotic Justin Herbert injury scare and another spin of the Wheel of Shame.

Inside the episode

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27:51 ↗

I think I'd go Patterson, but that's scary. At least Damien Williams, the backup, did not practice on Thursday. We know he left the game with the rib, and it sounds like he's got a hip issue going on. Tyler Algier, the rookie, you would expect him to be suited up for this game. Does that mean he gets on the field? I mean, that's, I think it's a harder road for him to impact Patterson than Damien Williams in what it will be Algiers' first game. I think you can feel confident in the workload, but a running back against the Rams is, that's not really where I want to be. Also, I want to bring up Marcus Marietta. This isn't the weak to play him, but he looked good. Yeah, he thought he was a competent quarterback. And more importantly, he ran the ball a ton. He had eight designed runs. Okay, these aren't just scrambles and like you're not able to rely on it.

28:45 ↗

That's part of the game plan here for them. So going forward as a streaming option, if you're in two quarterback leagues, I think it's probably a bad game this week. Maybe you trade for him in a two quarterback league for brighter days down the road. All right. And then Drake London? I would sit him this week, but I'm super excited for him. All right. Seattle at 1 and 0. Also play Kyle Pitts. Yeah. We didn't mention people are going to ask, do I play Kyle Pitts? Yes, of course. You play Kyle Pitts. It's like Mike Williams. These are top tier players.

29:15 ↗

They're going to have crap games. Everybody does. That sucks. It really, really sucks when they have a bad game, especially week one, but you play Kyle Pitts. Yeah, if you had to like map out the emotional impact of weeks over the course of the year, I genuinely think week one has a greater emotional impact than even the three playoff weeks. It's like an upside down Belker. Yeah. Seattle, one and no taking on the 49ers. In San Francisco, the Draft King Sportsbook line, San Francisco minus eight and a half. The over under is 41. That gives San Francisco a almost 25 points. Seattle, just 16. The 49ers defense in week one, it didn't give up a lot of fantasy points. It was the slosh game up in Chicago. They lost, but the production, like there wasn't anybody on the Chicago side that you would have been happy playing. So.

30:09 ↗

I just don't expect a lot out of Gino Smith and company going on the road. Heavy favorite 49er team. The way that Seattle, again, the way that they win this football game is Trey Lance turns the ball over three times, right? A fumble and two picks. Something like that would make this game competitive. We haven't, we know it's going to be rainy, mostly in the first half, and, you know, Trey Lance is going to be put to the test again. The defense for Seattle looked okay last week. in wet conditions with a team like the 49ers who already want to run the ball with a new quarterback who is a mobile running court. The San Francisco 49ers are going to throw the ball three times. That's what it feels like. They're going to run the ball a ton, which means that there's not going to be as much time in the game, as many plays played in the game. The clock is always going to be running. And so on the Seattle Seahawks side, man, I don't love starting.

31:07 ↗

any of them. Like I, you know, he can write. I think Penny is the only one that I'm comfortable with because they have that same, they're going to have the same philosophy and he had success in week one where this game may be one on the ground and both teams commit to that run. But we do have Kenneth Walker, second round rookie running back for the Seattle Seahawks. They said he's going to play. And I'm not, I'm not saying he's going to overtake Rashad Penny, but. If you work him in and Walker gets eight carries, that's a pretty big deal for Rashad Penny in a negative game script. And Penny already doesn't catch passes. So you're more worried about it. I'm concerned about it, yeah. Jeff Wilson will get the start for San Francisco. Jordan Mason and Ty Davis Price will have opportunities to establish the hierarchy in the backfield for the 49ers, which could have an impact.

32:04 ↗

The biggest thing I'll be watching is how successful is Jeff Wilson on that first and second down opportunity because if there's a big difference between some of these rookies and him, you've got enough weeks before Elijah Mitchell's back to where you could see some transitions happen. Sure. You want to add Mike last week added Jeff Wilson on Sunday morning. If you add a Jordan Mason or a Ty Davis Price on Sunday morning, and you probably will know which one to choose maybe with some news before then, you could have the same benefit. Jeff Wilson has been injured a ton in San Francisco. And so just don't ignore those players. No, I think they're absolutely worth the stash and find out. Jeff Wilson, though, last year when he saw at least, I'm going to double check the step, but I believe it's when he saw at least.

32:58 ↗

60% of the snaps. Yeah, so when he saw over 60% of the snaps, he was a top 20 running back. So he's, because of course, San Francisco just produces at the running back position. And the running back that you really want here is Debo Samuel, who's going to be so involved. Debo's going to be, I mean, obviously you're playing him if you've got him already, but like in a DFS lineup, I think he will be, you know, six carries plus in this game. It's Debo and no one else in the past catching. department for San Francisco in my opinion. And so looking at Trey Lance, a lot of people want to ask questions about Trey Lance after week one. We had a foot cast question yesterday saying, you know, is Justin Fields the guy we actually should have been looking at instead of Trey Lance. 54 rushing yards in week one. Tough game to be a part of in terms of the weather, but Lance or Brady, Lance or Carr, Lance or Cousins. This week I'll probably be playing the other guys because of the...

33:56 ↗

Because of the situation and the, like, we won't know until, of course, Sunday. But as of right now, the weather peeps out there are saying it's going to be not just a light rain. It's going to be a rainy game, which will be enough to affect the fantasy output for Tray Lance, which means so next week, Tray Lance goes to Denver. So it will be a blizzard. This game is going to be closer again, just so you know. It could be. Seattle's going to make this a game. I will say for Seattle. And I hate Seattle. Just to be clear, we're Cardinal fans. So when I, like, went with Seattle last week, that wasn't a bias. I would like to see them lose a lot of games. They didn't, like, if you look at just the box score, the Broncos really didn't do anything in the second half. Neither offense did. But Jamal Adams' safety for the Seattle Seahawks, he's done. He's toast. He's out for the year.

34:55 ↗

The Broncos did move the ball much better in the second half. It came down to two goal line fumbles is the reason they didn't put up any points. So the dominant Seattle defense in the first half, they were not the same after the injury. Cincinnati, man, what a tough start to the year on paper for Seattle, having to go to Denver, right? No, that game was at home. Sorry, yeah. Cincinnati, O and one taking on the O and one Dallas Cowboys. King Sportsbook line here. Cincinnati minus seven. The over under is 42. Cooper Rush is going to get the start. What can we expect from Zeke and C.D. Lamb and Dalton Schultz. Dalton Schultz six for 70, sorry, six for 60. Let me try that again. Seven for 62. There it is. On nine targets in week one. The Muth tore up the Cincinnati defense last week.

35:55 ↗

And Dolan Schultz could be a good friend to Cooper Rush, right? Yes, absolutely. He absolutely could. We don't have, you know, a ton of Cooper Rush statistics to lean on, but he did have a start last year against Minnesota. He was the QB12, had 300 passing yards, had two passing touchdowns. But the Vikings were atrocious last year, so it's hard to really gleam information from that game. I was looking at the numbers. In week one, the Cowboys passed. I was like 70% of the time. It was a low 70s, mid-70s. And on the season last year, it was right around 60%. So I think Zeke is going to see a lot more work. I was going to ask you for Zeke. On the ground. 10 or sorry, 15 attempts over under for Zee. Ooh, 15. I'm going to take the under because I expect them to be losing early and often. Do you?

36:54 ↗

Yeah, I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals defense is fantastic. We've talked at nauseam about the injuries to the offensive line. And it's not just injuries, free agent losses. I mean, their offensive line for the Dallas Cowboys is really weak right now. So, I mean, it's tough because you're going to want to protect Cooper Rush and the best friend there is going to be Zeke in the run game. I think that's what they are going to try and what they want to do, is establish it with Zeke. I just don't know how long you're going to be able to do that if the Bengals are able to score. Because I do think that the Bengals will be able to shut down the Dallas offense. Joe Burrow seems like you can put him out there with maybe some bounce back confidence. The four picks marred last week. They should have won the football game. Yeah, it was against Pittsburgh. And Joe Mixon had 36 opportunities last week. Yeah, he's.

37:51 ↗

You know what's crazy? And maybe Kyle, you can vet this. I saw this somewhere. So Joe Mix was super involved in the pass again, which was awesome. It was what you wanted to see. But I believe it all came on first and second down. Like that just so happened to be, you know, it wasn't like he was the pass catching back in utilization in passing situations. It was just they dumped it off to him more. So that's one of the things I'm watching the most this week is the receiving the targets to Joe Mixing because it was awesome week one.

38:20 ↗

And in week one, when Dallas played Tampa Bay, Leonard Fournett ran for 127 yards against Dallas. So you're looking at the dumps for Joe Mixing, and you're looking at those opportunities to, you know, if Leonard Fornett can go off for 127, Mixing should really have success against this Dallas defense. And a reminder, if T. Higgins plays, you play T. Higgins. Yes. Jemar Chase. Five in-zone targets last week. In-zone, not just red zone. He was a few inches away from like three touchdowns. It's crazy. Per quarter. He was one uncalled review. Yes, he was a red flag away from a touchdown because he scored a touchdown. I mean, Jamar Chase is always an unstoppable force. The Houston Texans at zero-zero and one. Sorry, C. C.D. Lamb.

39:14 ↗

You thought we could go without talking out. No, yeah, we're here for the tough questions. Lamb or DJ Moore, I'm going to go lame. Alan Robinson or CD Lamb. I'm going to play Alan Robinson. Yeah, I'm going Alan Robinson in that. I play CD Lamb. I think I'm going DJ Moore over CD Lamb as well. Bateman or CD Lamb. CD Lamb. I'm going to take CD there. Yeah, okay. Michael Gallup has been ruled out of this game. The Texans at 0-0-1 take on the Broncos who are 0-1. There are some real heavy favorites this week. Yeah. The Drafking Sportsbook line, Denver at home, Denver minus 10. The overrunners 46. This is not one I'm going to go out and think that I think Denver wins this game by two touchdowns. So.

40:02 ↗

I wasn't in on them last week. I think they're going to bounce back in a huge way. They had the mistakes on the goal line. They did move the football. Russ still went over 300 yards. And unfortunately for me, as I am facing him this week, Russ is going to cook at home, you know, 42 pass attempts last week. He's not a takeout guy. He's a home cooking. Oh, okay. Dejornos type of quarterback. Oh, yeah. Yeah, because it's not delivery. Do you guys disagree? I mean, is Rush a strong start this week? I agree. Yeah, Russ is a strong start. It's a good, easy matchup. But I do think that this will be a running game in the end. The 10-point home favorites are going to go to the running back. And while that might seem like, oh, Giovante Williams smash game, Giovante Williams was clearly established as kind of the past catching back. They came out and talked about that as well. So I actually think Melvin Gordon is a great play this week and could be the

40:56 ↗

Stronger fan. Like, I wouldn't start him over Giovante by any means, but it won't. Could end up that way? Absolutely could end up that way. Yeah, it's a good point, especially if this game's out of hand and they give him the ball a lot in the second half. He looked good. I mean, both players were able to run the football last week. Melvin had, I think, 12 carries? I think he had 12 carries for 58 yards. Yeah, I mean, still Melvin Gordon, it seems. Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy, are both of them in your lineup? Yes. Mm-hmm. Are you messing around with any of these Broncos tight-ins? Salbert Aguabanon getting a look this week? Are you just going to try to find somebody more? Jason's shaking his head. No, I'm not. Not in this matchup where I don't think they're going to throw as much as they could in a more competitive divisional game. The Broncos defense last week, number one against wide outs in terms of fantasy points given up. Number two against running backs. Rex Burkhead, Damien, Pierce.

41:54 ↗

Rex Burkhead, Damien Pierce, what do you do? I bench both of them. I'm not excited. I think Damian Pierce will get more involved. The coaching staff talked about having him be more involved. Rex Burkhead certainly, I mean, you can't possibly start Damian Pierce. He was the clear and utter backup. You have to see something first. So the question is, can you start Rex Burkhead who had so much utilization that usually that utilization means? Yeah, you could start him. Plus, he was the passing guy. And when you're down 10, that could work out. But no, I think this is a really good defense making their home opener. I'm not starting Rex Burkett or Damien Pierce. Last week, even though he did not finish in the top 24, Brandon Cooks was fine. He was seven for 82, didn't score, had 12 targets. It was a great play. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. The game script says Brandon Cooks will be targeted 10 plus times again.

42:50 ↗

Every game is a great game for Brandon Cooks. And obviously you're chasing O.J. Howard's two touchdowns? Oh, I mean two touchdowns, baby. No. Okay. Moving on, the Arizona Cardinals at 01, travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders who are also O&1. The Drafking Sportsbook line, Las Vegas minus five and a half at home. The over one, the over and under is a nice 51.5 points. Las Vegas was number one in neutral pass rate after week one. That's lovely. That's the Devante Adams factor. Arizona number one and no huddle rate since Cliff has come to town. That's great. Now, I don't want to presume of this matchup the way we've tried to do that. Maybe they should try to huddle more. But they, but Cliff doesn't have anything to say. Oh, they'd be in the huddle and just be like dead air on the on the helmet. Just be stock tips or something. Cliff, you there, buddy? You guys are brutal.

43:46 ↗

You guys are so brutal. He sucks. Yeah, I mean, I had to watch that game, and it was brutal. It was offensive. Can we blame Kyler for that? Because he didn't look great. Yeah, no, I think, you know, I was on the radar this morning talking about how Kyler is a big concern because early coming into draft season, it looked like he might be the next guy up behind Josh Allen. He's in that conversation. Now, you got he's. You got Mahomes and Herber and Lamar and Hertz all clearly ahead. Like I would rather start all of those guys over Kyler. And Kyler's going to be fine for fantasy. As a fantasy? Yes, for fantasy purposes. Kyler's going to be fine because he runs. Would you play Burrow or Kyler here against the Raiders defense? Because I think I still in Kyler there. I link Kyler because of the rushing and because of the pace of play. There should be a lot of actual plays.

44:39 ↗

in this game. I mean, that's something you look for for fantasy. Not every game has the same amount of snaps. And hopefully Kyler is true to his word of when he gave the comments of, I need to target Hollywood Brown 10 plus times because they would have much more success on offense if they could figure out how to get Hollywood Brown, their best wide receiver by an infinite amount right now. If they can get him 10 targets, they will move the ball more. Yeah, and I actually think James Connor is still somebody that I am keeping my eye on in terms of acquiring. Oh, sure. I wasn't sure where you were going, and I thought you were worried. And James Connor is, I completely agree with you. His utilization was phenomenal. The end of that game gets weird. And so you saw more, you know, Benjamin and rightly so, like don't get James Connor injured.

45:36 ↗

looked like the workhorseback that he was when Chase Edmonds was missing last season, so certainly target him. I do think Zacharts will get some work in this game. And so he'll be back on the field for more snaps. I think he's sneaky. If you need somebody at the tight-end position, I'd be playing him over in an Injoku tier. I don't know if you guys agree with that. No, I do. I do. What about the Dorch? The Dorch is interesting, this being Greg Dorch. What do you think of this, Mike? The human Dorch. Okay, okay. That comes from a Foot Clan listener yesterday. That's not bad. We weren't sure. Jason really likes hitting the Dorch. Yeah. You know, really loudly. Yeah. What a Dorch. Yeah, the human Dorch takes it away. Yeah, it does. And it makes him sound like real awesome. But he's a more hero.

46:27 ↗

Yeah, as opposed to a very negative way that Jason's saying it. Right. And I think that the Dorch is okay. But he's not, you know, he's not lighten on fire while he flies. So, but the reality for Greg Dorch is the drumbeat was good through preseason and training camp. He was involved. But Zachert's being more involved makes me less likely to look Dorch's way. And then Jason has Derek Carr as his start of the week from yesterday's show. I wonder why. Yeah. Did you guys watch Patrick Mahomes last night with a real defense? It was like, oh, it's not as easy as it looked week one against the Cardinals. Yeah. Derrick Carr, congratulations. Yep. Two and a half touchdowns for Derek Carr. That's exactly what he's going to have. Yeah, I'll go over. How do you pull off the half touchdown? The ball gets cut in half midair.

47:25 ↗

Yeah, it's never been done. That's probably the last answer I expected, Mike. It's the only way. He's a real dumb answer. Yeah, I do think I'll take the over on two and a half. He did not hit three one time last year. He did not have Devante Adams one time last year. So I think Devante Adams, Darren, Darren, we saw Travis Kelsey destroy the Cardinals last week, although last year they were really good. against tight ends. And quarterbacks. Arizona 10th against quarterback second against tight ends last year. Linebackers should be a strength, like the only one on defense. So it was really surprising to see how good Kelsey was last week. But there's no one, no one that can guard Devante Adams on the Cardinals roster. All right. So play him then, huh? Oh, yeah. Devante Adams, you're starting him? Yeah, I mean, he'll have a hundred and one.

48:17 ↗

The 49% target share, is that accurate? 49%? Yes, come on. Derek Carr, what are you doing? He's doing what every fantasy player has always dreamed of doing. They asked their quarterbacks. It's what Aaron Rogers did in the playoffs. It was like, if I can, if I throw it to this person, I always succeed. Should I do that again? No. It's just wild. We've had those conversations about like if I was a, quarterback and I had one of these unstoppable guys. Why don't you just throw it to them every play? Yeah, Matthew Stafford was listening to. Yeah. All right. Sunday night football, the Bears that want to know take on the Packers at 0 and 1. Drafking Sportsbook line. Another big one here. Nine and a half point home favorites. The Packers. The overrunners, 41. The bears are at that 16 point mark. I don't know if I, man, I'm trying to think of what to do with my bears. All right.

49:16 ↗

I don't think that Justin Fields is going to go on the road and have success. I think he's going to turn the ball over to nullify anything he does on the ground. That's just my opinion. I think he may run the ball a little bit, but I think he's going to get nullified by turnovers. I think he'll finish. I don't know about a QB1, but like that high end QB2, which is why I think he's in streaming contention. But then Montgomery, 21 opportunities last week. I think you play him. But you have lowered expectations against Green Bay. And then Mooney and Commet are just, I just don't like the situation for Chicago this week. 16 total points projected in Lambo. The Packers coming off what I think is an embarrassing loss. A butt whooping? Yeah. They were embarrassed. They're going home. They've got a chip on their shoulder. Aaron Rogers owns.

50:10 ↗

The Bears historically speaking. But did you see, uh, didn't you see Justin Fields do the, the, the slip and slide? It was, that was awesome. I mean, you tell me that guy's not, that guy is not not having a good time. Swag. No, honestly, I'm, I'm not. He celebrated like he hadn't won a game before. I'm not quite with. I'm not quite with. Pretty close. Andy on the sense that I think Justin Fields is an okay fantasy option. I think he's going to run a ton. I'm scared of the weapons Mooney commit in this matchup. But, you know, it's one of those things where when they have a bad game, after having horrible week ones, the managers who have had to deal with that are not going to be able to stay in it, but they should. Does that make sense? Yeah. The place that I have, places I have commit on playing him and the places I have Mooney on playing him.

51:02 ↗

Aaron Rogers is an interesting question this week. He struggled in week one, but I do expect him to bounce back in part by throwing the ball to Aaron Jones my start of the week. He's average 88 yards and six touchdowns in four games against Chicago, speaking of Aaron Jones. And then getting back, Ellen Lazard, having a healthier Robert Tunyon, getting on the same page with some of these other weapons, I think Aaron Rogers is a strong play this week. Okay. Do you disagree? I don't. Everything is there that Aaron, the Aaron Rogers, we know, should come out in this game and throw. The MVP. Be the MVP. Throw for 250 and three touchdowns, a normal Aaron Rogers line. But if, like, if Alan Lazard is still, if he's out or if he's playing and he's like, I don't know, still, you know, 65% or so because he had an ankle problem, I.

51:58 ↗

I am concerned about the other weapons for Green Bay being able to get it done. Yeah, it comes down to Lazard for me. If Lazard is in, I think Aaron Rogers is going to have an Aaron Rogers game. If he's out, these veterans, you know, Cobb and Watkins, they just don't have it. I think he'll get it done regardless in this one. Monday night double-hatter, the games are overlapping. Why are you doing that to us, NFL? Dumb. What are you doing? They're like, what's the thought process here? I have no idea. This must be money. This must be like, well, season opener is usually you get the head to head, or not the head, I'm sorry, the back-to-back games on Monday night football and it's great. And they're like, no, we'll go week two. And how about we like have them playing at the same time? So you can't watch both. Tennessee at all-in-one, taking on the one-and-no, Buffalo Bills. Another big line here. Drafking Sportsbook has it at Buffalo minus nine and a half. Over under is 48.

52:50 ↗

Josh Allen locked into your lineup. Diggs and Gabe Davis locked into your lineup. Question marks around the very limited work of Devon Singletary. He was so efficient, just didn't get a lot. And then Dawson Knox entirely uninvolved, and yet he had to block. I was going to say he is not going to have quite the situation he had in week one on a blocking scheme, you know, plan. But what do you think about Knox? I'm putting him back in there. I mean, if you're like, Albert Ogwebinom, that tier, you know, David Njoku, there's no way I'm going to those guys over Dawson Knox. Cole Komet or Dawson Knox, I think, is a, that's a tougher one. But Knox, between those two players has, I would give the edge, the touchdown edge, I like.

53:42 ↗

70 plus percent to Knox. Yeah, I don't think that you go just based on one week. We've seen Knox be a touchdown machine. So I'm fine starting Knox. I've seen Isaiah McKenzie hit waiver wires. That's, and he, if he got the full Cole Beasley treatment of being just the only slot guy, then he would have been great. Is there a chance he gets that though? I mean, it's one week and he was coming off an injury. It's possible. It's possible, but it worked well, and I think it keeps two smaller players healthy. So the 60-40 split that we saw in the slot work, if that continues, it's really hard to rely on either player. Ask me McKinsey or NBS moving forward. Ask me anybody are NBS moving forward, and I'd love to get out some of my frustration. Derek Henry, it's going to be tough on the road in Buffalo, but he's Derek Henry, so he's in your lineup.

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