Breakouts + Players We Forgive, Surprise Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25

That's a prototypical pass catching running back. Melvin Gordon was getting receptions on first and second down because that's where Philip Rivers goes with the ball. It's behind the best offensive line in football. Yes, Marlon Mack is there, but reading through the coach speak, how I am interpreting it is they're saying, yeah, Marlon Mack's a starter.

But we're going to ride the hot hand. They're leaving the crack there for Jonathan Taylor comes out week one, looks much better than Marlon Mac in the realm of possibilities. And it's Jonathan Taylor as the starter from here on out. I am all in on Taylor. You have to be so excited. I love the point that you made, though, to start your argument.

You absolutely have to draw a line in the sand with Jonathan Taylor and the draft capital and what you're willing to do. Now, you've reached a different conclusion than the one I reached, but you have to do it now. I am, you made me want to make a formal statement that I am, I'm out on the rookie season of Jonathan Taylor. Fair. Everything that I've read around camp, I know it's, it's, it's, it is what it is. But Marlon Max had an outstanding camp yesterday, incredible day.

Big runs. Naim Hines been the most active running back in camp. Jonathan Taylor is a specimen, one that I think will be put a little bit on layaway for next season. So I'm officially drawing my line on the not enough work. Great player. Can catch the ball. Won't get enough this year. We'll disappoint you. Mike is all in. Moved him up to 17. And I would be far more on the mic side. I believe in the talent.

While I agree with what Andy's saying to start the season, I do think it will be a one, two, three punch with those three backs.

By the midway point, when the playoff push is happening and they need to win games, he is their best player by not a small margin. And this is coming from someone who believed in Marlon Mack as a good running back. When they were on the clock with their first pick in the second round, they were him and it. They said it was tough between Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman.

But they looked at their team, right? I mean, they needed another wide receiver. That wide receiver, too, has been a catastrophe, whereas they have Marlon Mack. They have Naumontz. So they went Pittman. And then they're like, we've made a mistake. I still, our team's better with Jonathan Taylor traded up just a couple spots later and grabbed him. I'm in. Here's an interesting parallel. He's just too good. He's very good. And like I said, Marlon Mack's had a great camp. How much do you see this situation?

Like I see the Ravens backfield in maybe a similar light. Mark Ingram is going to have one more year there. J.K. Dobbins waiting in the wings. Here you have Marlon Mack on a contract year. You guys both think they'll make the transition sooner. Because obviously you're both in on Ingram. You're not in on J.K. Dobbins in the same fashion. Right. Even though he's got a massive – he's got a quarterback advantage over Jonathan Taylor. He's got a similar offensive line situation. He's got a lot of talent.

But you don't see those situations. He has the quarterback edge in terms of the Ravens are going to score a whole bunch of points. Jonathan Taylor has the quarterback edge of that. His quarterback targets the running back a bunch. Over under 20 receptions in his rookie season for Jonathan Taylor. Ooh. Because I will take the under on that, and that will not get it done for me. I have the over stat it out, so I will take the over. All right. You guys want to get into a little bit of mail bay? Sure.

Find the drop. You got to find the button. I got to find the drop. While you're looking for it. Mailbag. Apologies. When I find it, I find it. Sure. I see that now. I have Jonathan Taylor statted out for 25 receptions. So I'm taking the over. Still disappointing. All right. Well, this would be a fun one to watch. I mean, he's such a talented player. There will be either great joy.

Well, great frustration when it comes to Jonathan Taylor's rookie season. Possibly both. We're doing our fun little family home league where we're getting people who've never played fantasy before. My wife was on the clock. She's never played. She needs a running back. And she says, who's someone that is like really talented, but you don't maybe expect them to, you don't think they're going to score that much or be involved this year, but they're just really good. And I couldn't come up with anybody for a minute. And then eventually I was like, oh, wait.

Jonathan Taylor's amazing, but I don't expect him to have that role, and she drafted him. All right, mailbag question. Armin in Tucson, Arizona, Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown? Full PPR Dynasty League. Oh, my. That's the real. I think we'd all take Ridley over Brown in a redraft. Do you take him over Brown in a dynasty? I do. So Calvin Ridley is 25. He will be turning 26 in December.

Man, that is a tough. It's a three-year gap. Two and a half. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What's hard is, I'm going to start with the redraft side of it is the probability of being a top 15 wide receiver. I think that the probability still lies with Calvall Ridley, despite him being the number two option at best on his team. We recently talked about how it was impossible to see.

Chris Godwin overtaking Mike Evans. And honestly, it seems impossible right now to see Calvin Ridley overtaking Julio Jones. But it's one of those things that certainly could happen. It will happen at some point. At some point, it will. Yes. Julio Jones had the same thing. Julio Jones had to overtake Roddy White, which seemed like an impossibility at one point. Anyway, so back to my point of the probability that Calvin Ridley is a top 15 wide receiver is higher.

than Marquis Brown. But Marquis Brown, his ceiling, if everything goes right, is higher than Calvin Ridley to me. Okay. All right. I think I see their ceiling similarly. My son faced down to A.J. Brown versus Calvin Ridley decision yesterday. How do you view, like if you throw him into the mix, A.J. Brown, Hollywood Brown, and Calvin Ridley in a dynasty. I would go A.J. Brown.

first. And then I, at this point, I would probably still take Calvin Ridley over Marquise Brown. You know my love for Marquis Brown. I, I would, I would like him. But the, you know, when you're in a dynasty startup draft, it's one of those things where the rookie drafts, you could take a little bit more shot, a little bit more risk, but you're going to have this team forever. And I, I really, when I'm in a dynasty startup, I'm going to take the known commodity over the higher upside.

if there's, you know, a questionable decision here. And I think we've just, we've seen more from Calvin Ridley in two years of being able to command more targets. We, we have yet to see Hollywood necessarily stay on the field. I expect a breakout this year, but I don't want to just have my dynasty startup rosters be projections of the hopes and dreams of the brightest future.

Yeah, yeah, because there aren't always the brightest futures. Here is another spin on the question, though. Calvin Ridley, percentage chance that he is better than Julio Jones this season. Nobody would have made that bet necessarily on Godwin over Evans. What odds do you, you know, Julio's 31, 32 years old? What odds do you give Calvin to be better fantasy-wise?

He's found a way in the end zone that Julio hasn't. Yeah, I would say 15%. And that's exactly how it would come. It would be touchdowns. Ridley ends up with 10 touchdowns. Julio gets his six. And if they're close in receptions, obviously, Julio will have the yardage. But, you know, I think there is 15%. I'd put it in about 10. Julio Jones keeps his six touchdowns real close. Yeah. These are my six and you can't have them.

All right, let's go to a voicemail question. Hey, ballers. This is Paul from Chicago, big fan of the show. My question is, what offense do you think can surprise people in 2020 and actually be very good for fantasy? Thanks, guys. Keep up the great work. Okay, so fantasy surprise.

For me, it is pretty easy and obvious. I'm going to give the second shout out to the Rockies, but I think Denver could be a fantasy surprise. If Cortland Sutton and Jerry Judy and Noah Fan all come through, that means that Locke came through and that means that there's goal line opportunities for Melvin Gordon. I think, you know, I've been very pessimistic on this offense until recently where I'm starting to see a path to where, yeah, if they click.

I think it will be a surprise and it will be really good if it clicks. Mike, do you have a candidate that jumps out to you? I think the Raiders are in that category for me. I think more viable fantasy options in Las Vegas. And I am going to go with something that would be a complete surprise, but it could happen. And it's because I still believe in Sam Darnold. So I'm going to bring up the New York Jets. It was a...

You have to throw last season out. Lev Bell was in my, he was my initial entry for the forgiveness. Yeah. The dude had mono. I get it. It's funny. It's funny that he had mono. He had a kissing disease that shows up. From Topanga. Yes. Yes. Yes. That's why it's funny. And I hope that Sam can look back now and laugh and be like, yeah, that was unfortunate.

But it happened. All love and smooches from our side. People can't get back into high school sometimes for months. And this guy forced his way back onto an NFL field. There's no way that Sam Darnold was right. And he showed. Oh, yes, voice of public opinion. But Mike. Yes. Is this an Adam? Number two. Yes. He has to overcome some things. But if you're going back into last off season, despite the hiring of Adam Gays.

people were there was excitement for what sam darnald could do in his second year because his rookie year you saw some things toward the end of the year this is a growing quarterback maybe he really is a franchise guy he might physically have been growing too at that age yeah that's no that's no joke so that's my the one that would surprise me that would but i i see what you're saying i'm not i'm not completely out on sam donald yet but i feel like that the question would have to be which one would shock you

Not surprise you, but shock you. I want to throw one other team out because I think this is a great question. There can be a lot of fantasy gold to be found by the entirety of NFL teams turning around one way or the other. Surprise downsides. But a post-hyped sleeper as a team, I think last year I called for the collapse. But the Browns this year, I think it could be much, much better. I like Chubb. I like Hunt. I'm...

curious about Odo Beckham if he's going to be back. And Austin Hooper apparently has been, despite my, you know, calling for how much I do not believe in his fantasy value this year. He's been dominating camps by all beat writers, you know, reporting. So they're certainly a post-hype sleeper and they don't cost what they did last year. Yeah, I agree with that. The Jets, the Jets popped into my head. You know, the contrast that is most frustrating for me.

I think we talked about this in the studio a little bit. It's true of every sport. It's true of every great player. You have one, you know, it's talent opportunity. It's also a landing spot for these guys. Some players just end up in incredible situations. Some don't. Josh Allen in Buffalo, you know, drafted in the same draft class of Sam Darnold. Darnold was drafted ahead of him. Most people believed in the talent of Sam Darnold far above Josh Allen. And, you know, Buffalo's done a better job.

of taking the player they drafted, equipping him with the kinds of weapons that complement him, you take the worst deep ball thrower and give him the best deep ball receiver in football. Seems like a nice way to help bridge the gap on a challenge. Yes, they've been smart. Give him John Brown, let him run the football. And here I go and I look at the Jets, and I say, boy, you gave him Jameson Crowder. Oh, no, Bashad Perriman. And you just haven't quite equipped him.

Maybe this offensive line's better. Maybe it's not. It will go a long way to helping Sam Darnel not make mistakes. Not see them ghosts. But you kind of wish that you could almost put all the players into a computer and run a simulation as them as the starter for every football team and see who's the real best player. Like you can't do that. I love it. Darnold is better.