Breakouts + Players We Forgive, Surprise Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25

Well, let's start here. I love it. Look, it's a little bit deeper. We've been talking about, you know, obviously are my guys, tons of huge breakout stars, Terry McLaurin, Marquis, Brown, who we really believe in. But this is someone that I've been rising on, and part of this came. I talked yesterday about I went and I watched Drew Locke tape to see what I actually believe.

And it convinced me that I think Noah Fant is this year's breakout tight end. You have a lot of things in his favor, namely the fact that Noah Fant is a freak of nature athlete. We're not talking, you know, he's on your sunglasses. If you go to the player profile on our website for Noah Fant. He's in the Saquan Barkley Range. I mean, the only, he's ahead of George Kill. We call it the Chase Claypool Range now, Jason. You wish.

Look, Noah Fant is not only a superstar athlete, but he was drafted to be an important receiving option. His big problem coming out of college was blocking. He was, you know, that was like a weakness, even though he's a super strong guy. He was known as a pass catching tight end. And you know, in years past, those guys would drop in the draft, but he was selected number 20 overall.

And he was pretty good. He finished as the tight-in 16. Now, that didn't win people. You know, last year he was mostly irrelevant. But that's what rookie tight-ins do. We talk about that a lot. Rookie tight-ins pretty much don't ever break out. Evan Ingram had a good rookie season, you know, pretty much end of list.

That was the 13th best finish in the last 20 years for a rookie tight end, and it was the sixth best finish for a first rounder. So he showed enough flashes. Big breakaway plays. I watched, when I was watching Drew Locke, I watched a lot of, shout out to Denver, the city. Because their coverage of came. Nice weather. Well, yes, but no, no.

I see why we have... How you doing, Denver? Broncos fans always writing in so passionate. They clearly have an extremely passionate fan base because I'm watching... It's the oxygen. They're not getting enough. They must not be, but it's also the media. The media there was doing such a great job. You could basically watch their training camps. They had Peyton Manning sitting in there for an hour where they're showing the broadcasting the camp and the practice. It was really cool. Watch a lot of it.

and I saw several plays designed for Fant and several plays where when he got the ball, boom, he's gone. You know, look, Fant had the second highest yards per reception, 14.1 for a rookie tight end over the last 25 years. So the talent- He had a couple 130-yard receptions last year. Exactly. And you want to know who had the number one since he was number two? Kid him the last 25 years. Mark Andrews. Okay.

So there are a lot of things here that say this is a year to leap for a special player who is on an offense that could take a step forward. And the nice thing is because you don't expect him to be higher than third in targets, at least I don't for his team. I think he can get up around 80 or 90 targets in this offense as a ceiling.

but he's the type of player who could be extremely efficient. You know, you saw last year Jared Cook just dominate with these 19 yard per receptions, tons of touchdowns. That's what I see could happen for Noah Fan. And if I have to take my shot on him or T.J. Hawkinsoners, one of these young tight ends to break out, I'm calling for the breakout on Noah Fan. Yeah, he will have to take the step forward in year two. But I'm with you. I mean, you and I have both have them inside of our top 10.

At the position. I love the breakdown. What would you consider a fantastic finish for him? What's the ceiling? I think he needs to be top five. I think a breakout has to be top five at tight end. That'll be tough. It will be tough. Because the volume will be the big piece. I could easily see him having eight or more touchdowns, which would put him up in that category. Oh, my. Oh, my. What about you, Mike? You are not calling for the breakout, at least based on the rankings. For Noah fans, I can. Can you see the path?

Oh, 100% I can see the path. What's wild? And maybe we just have, you know, we've blocked it out from previous years. But this year, in particular, when you look at the tight ends, ranked 7 through 20, you go, oh, yeah, I can see the path for almost every single one of these guys. Maybe we get like a renaissance period here for the tight ends that we can get out of the... Probably not.

Look, I'm trying to bring hope to the people over here, and you're just squashing it down. Well, every year, I mean, I think you're going to have the breakout tight ends, and then you're going to have the disappointments. Like O.J. Howard last year, that was supposed to be the big breakout. But I, you don't have to take Noel Fant with a fifth round pick. That's what I love. And that's part of why I picked him. It's not just because I think he's worthy of a fifth round pick. It's because he has the path to breaking out.

and he costs you nothing. Noah Fant is not being drafted in Dynasty Leagues he is, but in a redraft league, Noah Fant is a double-digit pick. The major breakout candidates at tight-in, what I look for are those big play capabilities because that is a differentiator from being the just down-and-distance, first-down weapon. Last year, he had a 75-yard reception in one game, a 48-yard reception, a 43-yard reception. Reminds me of the Mark Andrews, the George Kittles.

Those type of players, that kind of upside, I'm on board for. Would you, if you were going to lock somebody into your lineup today, like you don't get a change amount, this is the best ball type of question. Are you locking Joni or are you locking Fantin, Jason? I would lock Fantin because while I think Jono's week-to-week baseline could be a little bit higher, I don't think Jono has the games that, you know, end up with 125 yards and a touchdown the way that Noah Fant can.

can have a weak winning performance. All right, my breakout candidate that I'm going to bring forward today, it's Ronald Stinking Jones. Emphasis on the middle part. Ronald Jones, I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year. He's being drafted as the RB 29. Last season, he finishes the RB 26 last season. You know what he did that on? He did that on 36%.

of his team's snaps. 36% last season. The starter. And Peyton Barber is gone. Ronald Jones is the goal line back. And I want to draw your attention in particular to what the primary ball carrier does for Tom Brady offenses, the opportunities that they have. Over the last, going back to 2014, the lead running back for Tom Brady. I mean.

Great opportunities inside the red zone. Team rushing touchdowns inside the five. Jonas Gray, 10 carries inside the five. Oh, man. John's Gray, Mike Yelisley, Sony, Michelle. Double-digit touchdowns all the way back to 2014 for the lead ball carrier for Tom Brady's offense. Ronald Jones had four of those opportunities last year. Four chances inside the five. All four were touchdowns for Ronald Jones. You look at what's taken place in camp.

Kishon Vaughn is getting the Bruce Ariens always treats his rookies this way treatment. He's irrelevant to me. He is, when Bruce Ariens doesn't mince words, yeah, what's his role? He's punt returner, maybe, maybe special teams. David Johnson got the same treatment when Chris Johnson was the guy, and I think the difference and talent between Ronald Jones and the other weapons that they have. I mean, the Shaw McCoy's there, yeah. But Ronald Jones was a very, very good runner, a high percentage of his runs over 10 yards.

He had breakaway capabilities, and he has bulked up. He's gotten stronger and looks the part. I know he doesn't catch a lot of passes, but when he catches passes, he does a lot with them. He was, I think, over nine per catch last year. That's very impressive. He was also very reliable in terms of targets to catches at the end of game, something Bruce Ariens needs. They get caught 12 or 13, fourth quarter passes. He's not getting a lot of chances there.

But he's so explosive that when he does get them, you know, it's like Derek Henry a little bit. You know, Henry doesn't get a ton of opportunities in the past game, but he finds the way to do a lot with them. If Ronald Jones is the guy for Tom Brady, double-digit touchdowns is a very reasonable projection for him. And that will outpace RB29 by a lot. I know that we have a lot of folklore listeners who are more seasonal. They don't necessarily listen all off season.

which upgrade your fantasy, listen to the offseason. But if you're just coming back and you're waiting for me to jump all over Andy and be like, but Ronald Jones sucks, then you have missed what I've been talking about this off season. I've gone back. I've watched the tape. And I am in. I'm in on Ronald Jones. At running back 29, the opportunity versus the cost, the risk versus reward is...

is outstanding. And I am happy to draft Ronald Jones where he's going right now for the chance of the goal line, for the chance of a true breakout. It is a nebulous situation there where if they just decide to kind of give him a little bit more of that third down work, he can vault up. I don't expect that, but I think he's going to be a great depth piece.

and very much outdo his ADP. Fourth highest yards after the catch at the running back position last season. And doing it on 36% of snaps, it's kind of ridiculous. So if we expect the offense to move, I think you're going to need him to score touchdowns. But I think you could do it. All right, my breakout pick, I'm going with. Theo Riddick. I am going with the other rookie running back that people are targeting. Jonathan Taylor for the Indianapolis Colts.

And the reason for this, I have bumped him way up in my rankings. And it's go time. It's time to make... 17. Up to 17 for Mike. It's time to make the stand on who you are in on, who you are out on. And I believe in the talent of Jonathan Taylor Thomas. Yes. Look. What an actor. Yes. One of the best covers of Teen Bob of all time. I mean, the comp for Jonathan Taylor is...

The Incredible Hulk. If you're going to compare him to anybody else in the universe, the Colts traded up to get him. When a team trades up for a running back, you have a huge hit rate of success on top of he was a second round pick. So they traded up in the second to go and get him. You had Jim Urse before the draft. There was reports that Marlon Mack, they're working on a contract extension. Erse went out of his way to say, oh, that's not true.

That's a really strange thing for the owner of a team to come and say, no, we're not actually going to give him an extension. In college, Jonathan Taylor averaged over 2,000 rushing yards a year. That's pretty good. Let's talk about the past catching. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is not the best past catching running back in this group of rookies, but he still had...

a 10% target share in the final year, and he gets Philip Rivers. Over the last two years, Philip Rivers has sent an average of 28% of his targets to Melvin Gordon and Austin Echler. And I want to remind people, Melvin Gordon, okay, let me just ask this, is Melvin Gordon a past catching running back?

You're saying is he like a prototypical pass catching right? No, just when you think of Melvin Gorn. I do. I do think of that. He catches the ball in NFL, yes. Yeah, he wasn't used like that in college. In Wisconsin, you had, so his sophomore year, two receptions, junior year one reception. Then he shot up to 19, his final year. Jonathan Taylor had 26 last year. Like he, like I said.

Not the most fluid compared to the other guys. I think he's pretty fluid. I don't actually worry about his skill set as a pass catcher at all. I watched all of his training camp tape. I watched all of his route running. I watch all of his catches. He wants to prove that he's that guy. I don't worry about that one bit. I am so glad you're saying that. I was going to chime in because he is a good pass catcher. I think he's more than a capable pass catcher. Go watch Leonard Fournette's Combine Drills and then watch Jonathan Taylor's Combine Drills. And you go,

Oh, one of them has that little hitch, that little securing the ball, giddy up. It's called the Howard. Yes. It's called the Ronald Jones. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. But no, Jonathan Taylor looks great when he catches the ball. My question is not whether he can do it. He has to be, they have to use him that way. And in my response to that is Philip Rivers will. Even if Jonathan Taylor doesn't turn into the third down guy, let's say Nahim Hines is the guy. Excellent third down back.