MEGALODON Episode - Week 13 Matchups, Turkey Day Awards & More! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/27

You've got to open up your eyes and realize this could be the best thing ever. Last year's winner was Puka Nakua. This year's winner. I've got my answer. How do you categorize this in your head? In my answer, I'm categorizing it as I didn't see it coming. I'm surprised and it's actually really good. Joe Mixing. That's my answer. Okay. So I love that answer because this is Mike's Jack in the Box take. So I feel like Mike should answer Joe Mixett. But I'm going to go Bo Nix. Bo Nix is my answer. Because, I mean, this is a guy who was. Nobody really thought he was going to do what he's doing. And it's a rookie, new player. Yeah, even your love of Bo Nix did not necessarily, it wasn't necessarily a prescription for fantasy success. It was just like this guy could succeed and get there. Right. It's come quickly. Who's the answer, Kyle?

Laser Mayfield. Oh, that's a good one, too. We missed that one. Laser. Yeah, he could just be the best thing ever. And literally in the office yesterday, Jason's like, I love the bucks. And I think it's because I love Baker. It is. I am just rooting for that guy like crazy. I hope he gets his 12 million back from his pops. And we do have a new award. Did you know that? Crazy story. Well, Baker Mayfield is basically suing his dad and brother for investment. Yeah. $12 million. Basically saying they stole. 12 mil. They probably don't have a good relationship. No, it's probably fractured. We have a new award this year. The pumpkin pie guy? Okay. Pumpkin pie guy. This is replacing the sweet potato casserole. Kyle, will you explain this award to us? It's delicious in the first couple of bites, but if you eat too much, you're probably going to vomit. Interesting. So wait, is this somebody that started and you're... Or someone who's just had some real spike weeks.

I mean, this could be Marv. Oh, this could be Marv. Some really nice looking stuff. See, I don't relate to this award because I want to eat all the pumpkin pie. Like, I do not. It's not too much. Put it as somebody that drives you crazy. Okay. Somebody that, Kyler Murray. Oh, that's the answer. Pumpkin pie guy award. That's the answer. It's Kyler. Yeah. Oh, that's it. I mean, yeah. I mean, as soon as you said, Kyler, it's like that is the one where it's so good, but you can't have too much. You just don't know. He sucks, man. I hate Kyler. To me, that's, uh, you're eating the pumpkin pie and you've got the beautiful perfect bite. It's got the cool whip on it. And you put it up to your mouth. And then when you bite it, there's nothing on the fork sometimes. Like somehow it's just gone. But yeah, Kyler, um, the inaugural pumpkin pie guy.

I love it. So let's jump into our starts. Starts of the week. I'll kick it off because this is an award winner. I'm going with my guy. Laser Mayfield. That's your start of the week at quarterback. That's my start of the week of quarterback. He didn't throw a passing touchdown last week and yet still balled out. It was awesome. Was in control. Had a rushing touchdown. Tons of yards. Buccaneers are tied for the third highest. Team implied total with 26 points this week and they get to play against Carolina who has been remarkably consistent. They're 29th in schedule adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. They're 29th in yards per attempt allowed. They're 29th in EPA per pass attempts. They're just near the basement. And I think what we saw recently, especially this last week from Bryce Young, if he's improving.

and getting the offense moving a little better, that's just even better for Laser Mayfield. So he is my start of the week. I can tell you I'm playing him over the pumpkin pie guy this week in our dynasty team. Makes sense. Okay. So quarterback, Mike, why don't you take it? Oh, boy. Look, on Thanksgiving, often we eat until we hate ourselves. So I'm going to start a guy and we'll see if I hate myself afterwards. I love that. It's my streamer. It's Russell Wilson. I just. Unlimited. Oh, it's not the diarrhea one? Unlimited diarrhea. Yeah. There is definitely a chance for that. But look, Steelers Bengals, 47 point over under. I mentioned all the stats for Russ yesterday. But again, Cincinnati 30th and scheduled adjusted fantasy points to the quarterback position. This is one of those games that.

might start slow and then towards the second half once everyone starts cooking on the offensive side, I think that we could have a bigger game from Russ. Well, I'm going to go with CJ Stroud. I'm going to take CJ Stroud as my start of the week. By the way, Mike, I'm going to ask for them at the top because I have gone with full underpants picks this week. Okay, you need to see the Smith. Yeah, I need to see the Smith for all the picks. I don't need the most severe, like the most extreme metallurgy. You need a small, medium or large over here. I need a medium. I want a medium for my picks. Teenium underpants. So all the picks that I got this week are players that rarely, if ever, I would recommend. And this week I feel like it is time. CJ Stroud against Jacksonville, who he has massacred in his career as the quarterback.

12, 4, and, you know, this and 5 this week, 345 and 2 against them. They're dead last against everything that you care about for passing offenses. And, you know, I think maybe Nico Collins might score and not have it called back on a penalty. Impossible. I mean, the last two weeks, if you just look at how C.J. Strouds performed, those two callbacks, I mean, a 70-something yard touchdown and then the whatever was, a 30, 40-yarder. Both of them, similar type of, you know, Nico is so good. and get in the ball in the middle of the field on a crossing route and scoring, having him back in the offense. I'm just so excited about CJ Stroud this week. I think you can definitely play him. Yeah, for sure. I am going with a running back start of the week who has only scored my important 10 fantasy point line once in the last month. If you have been.

Rolling out Jonathan Taylor, it has been a bad experience. No touchdowns in the last month with Anthony Richardson. About like three fantasy points last week. Yeah, I mean, that was a very, very difficult matchup against the Detroit Lions rush team. You're not getting the targets. You didn't have the touchdowns. This week, I think you're going to be much, much happier. The Patriots, this is a perfect offensive line versus defensive line matchup where I think they will be soft for the Colts. I think it is a get right game for the Colts offense against the Patriots and specifically Jonathan Taylor. I think he'll have a touchdown this week and a very productive outing. Mike? We talked about the news of this person has a teammate coming back, but I'm going to give you the confidence. If I have Cream Hunt and I've been relying on him as that RB2 slash 3, I'm still going to play him this week. I am willing to take the risk of.

Will Pacheco get a whole bunch of work because I'm on Jason's side of, I don't think he's going to get an abundance this week. And Kansas City is a 12-point home favorite on Friday. Raiders are 27th against running backs for adjusting, if you adjust the schedule. The game script is so set up for Cream Hunt because of Aiden O'Connell, you know, them being at home, it's just a mess for the Raiders. It might be the last hurrah here for when you can play Cream Hunt knowing. that you are feeling good about it, I should say, but I still feel good this week. Well, don't forget that I got them titanium underpants on tight, a little too tight. Rico Dowell, baby. I'm going to make him my start of the week against the Giants on Turkey Day. Gobble, gobble, gobble. You know, Dowdo can work for fantasy football. And the Giants defense is 28 against running backs.

25th in EPA per play or per rush attempt. You know, he's seeing 78% of the running back attempts. And if you give him a good matchup, they won last week. He was productive. I'm going, I'm going to say that you can play Rico Dattle this week with confidence. And I, I don't mind it. And you love it. And I love it. I love it. Uh, at wide receiver. He's the dish that nobody should have brought to the Thanksgiving meal, but then you try it and you're like, it's not that bad. Okay. That's not that bad. That's fair. It looks bad. It's not that bad. What dish would that be? The one that looks the worst, but tastes the best. It's usually.

It's like a green bean casserole for people, I think. Oh, yeah, that's a good comp. He's the green bean casserole. At wide receiver, I think, has the potential to be the wide receiver one on the week. George Pickens, the matchup against Cincinnati is wonderful. He has a 29% target share. He's averaging over 70 yards per game. And I don't know if you guys remember this. Do you remember the game against the Bengals last year in week 16, where he had 195 yards and two touchdowns? That's the matchup this week. How many catches did he have in that game? Probably three. Yeah, not very much. No, I don't know. He had four. Wow. Four for 195. One of his catches was for negative one yard. He's basically averaging like 60 yards a catch. You know, Bengals right now, they're giving up big plays and George Pickens is a big play machine. So he's a must start.

I'm going with Marvin Harrison Jr. Oh, man, that's a tough one. Against the Minnesota Vikings, they play two high safeties at the highest rate in the NFL. And yet, Marv has converted six of his end zone targets versus too high into four touchdowns. That's the third best in the NFL. He has a knack for being able to beat that type of coverage should it present itself. And just on top of that, like real nerdy stuff is just the... What, 28th in passing yards per game allowed. Talking about the Vikings, 30th in schedule, just the points to wide receivers. It's a good matchup because you have to throw on them. Vikings offense is high power. It is. Okay. Okay. So you're going, Marv? Yep. I got the underpants on. Don't forget. Oh, we're not. What? But this button over here is dusty. I got to get the dust off of it. Oh, no. Oh, no. Last week, Michael Pittman led the team with.

seven targets, six for 96. Josh Downs is now week to week. There aren't reliable options in an offense that despite how many completions Richardson has, they throw the ball a ton right now. His splits, Pity City, were better with Richardson than they were with Flacco. And it's that Patriots matchup where I think Drake May will get enough done on offense to make this game a little bit more Richardson independent. A lot of people want to give him a pass on last week's performance because of the terrible play from tight ins, wide receivers. He lost seven really successful plays, or not seven, four successful plays on major penalties. I think that this week, Michael Pittman will be enough of a PPR play with upside, with touchdown upside that you can get them into your lineup, strap on them underpants, and start Michael Pittman now. You might not say to do it again, but this week I think you can do it.

completely understand what we're without Josh Downs and with Pittman looking really good last week. It's tempting. I worry about Christian Gonzalez, but man. All right. Yeah. Oh, I'm going to go at tight end, of course, with, I don't know, maybe the tight end won since week seven, my dude, Jonu Smith. Can we boo this man? On Thanksgiving. Boo this man. I'll boo myself. Yes. You should not be allowed. He's a very good play. That hasn't been. Yeah, full stop. No, a very good fantasy play. I mean, he, since, since to a return, those five games, he's targeted on 28% of his routes, gross.

He's got 27 receptions, 299 receiving yards leading the team. Disgusting. But it's happening. And it's going to keep happening. Two is going to keep taking the easy Johnoo stuff. And that's fine. Start him. He's a good play. Er. He's a good player. He is a good player. He is a good player. He is a good player. Sometimes the enemy of great is good. Not bad. That's fine. Yeah, no, Johnny Smith, Jason Moore, those two guys connected. Start of the week. Mike, you're start of the week at tight end. I'm going to pair with Jason's quarterback. I'm going with Cade Otten, aka last week's Cade Rotten. Nice. I get it. It's been not what you hoped for the last couple of weeks for Cade Auden. However, the last two matchups have been very, very difficult tight end matchups. Seems that just they don't allow that position to beat them.

He's still averaging nearly seven targets per game, which is tied for six best. And the matchup, Carolina, dead last against fantasy tight ends. Most receiving touchdowns allowed to the tight end position seven in the last five games. Well, I mean, you just look, no, Gray. Yeah. Last week, right? I mean, it's, it's the, we had hoped that Kate Otten was at the point that he could overcome bad matchups. Didn't work out the last two weeks, but I think that you can go right back to him. I think it will be a good week for him. I am in the struggle bus of the Otten Plus matchup and going Taysson Hill and the involvement of Taysam Hill in the offense. That's a tough one. Which I think is where I'm going to go. But I wouldn't be surprised if Auden had a nice week. They did not need to do much other than hand the ball off last week against the Giants. So I get it. And I look, if the underpants are on, you just you shoot your shot.

And I'm going to go with the Muth getting luth against Cincinnati. If you need a tight end off the wire, which some of you do. We had Scoot Man starts last week. The Bengals are just plain letting it happen. You know, you said you like George Pickens. I like what the Bengals do, which is to give you an opportunity. It doesn't matter if you're Disley or Andrews or Bowers or Nojoku or the Ravens tied in scoring three times against you. That's where the Bengals let you win. And the Mewth. He doesn't get Luth very much, but I think he gets into the end zone this week. And that's going to make the difference for my titanium start of the week. So we will wrap the starts. We'll take a quick break and we'll jump into the forecast. I hear there are a lot of games to be played. All of them this week. All right. Without further ado, we're jumping into the fantasy forecast.

It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by Draft King Sportsbook. You guys, you guys doing okay? We're 40 minutes in. Do you need some smelling salts? Are you in good shape? I'm all right for now. I'm doing pretty good right now. Okay, you just let me know if we need to wake you up. Back from the buy. We get Cincinnati and Jamar Chase back, the Bills, the Falcons, the Jags, the Jets, the Jets, and the Saints. So a lot of very relevant fantasy players on the way back. No buys. No bye weeks. 10 million matchups to go through, starting with three Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago at 4 and 7. They head to Detroit, who is 10 and 1. The D.K. Sportsbook line here, Detroit minus 9 and a half. The overrunners 48 and a half. And that gives the lines an implied point total just under 30. The bear is just under 20. I mean, the lines have just been a machine.

And yet, for what it's worth, Guns Mahoney has not won on Thanksgiving Day. And Jared Goff is 0 and 3 on Thanksgiving Day. So, Jason, I'm sure you have the Bears winning this one. I do not have the Bears winning this one. Yeah, I mean, the Lions have played nearly perfect. And the way that they're built, the way that they are coached, I don't see it faltering. This season. They can lose a tough matchup, but they're not going to lose against a rookie Caleb Williams. So they're, I'm looking at the box score here. They won 24 to 6. They won 52 to 6 the last two weeks. Do you guys remember? Can you remember their loss? Do you remember who they lost two? The score was 16 to 20. I do not. I don't. I know. It was, it was week two. It was not a good team, was it? It was.

Oh, okay. Laser Mayfield. So goodish team. Well, you've said when that drop happens, you've said laser so many times that I assumed it was in the drop. Like, laser. Well, there you are. Jared Gov, Caleb Williams, games at home in Detroit. You know, you got to be hyper-confident in Jemir Gibbs in the core options here. David Montgomery is going to play. I don't really think you should. Think too much of this. Yeah, I'd play David. You're saying about the David Montgomery injury? Yeah, I just think at this point, we have enough history with Montgomery. I'm not going to factor. Like if you're going to start David Montgomery, normally you start him this week. You don't adjust that based on the fact that he banged up his shoulder and they said he could have come back in and he's going to play. If he's out there, I'm playing him. I don't really see why, you know, this is his former team.

that he has had big games against before. His anytime touchdown is minus 200. That says he's expected to play and be confident. I think that's fine. I will say that I have mentally given Jemir Gibbs a slight bump up. Not that it matters. You're starting him no matter what, but I do think a few extra receptions, extra snaps are in the cards in this game. I mean, on the Detroit side in general, I think your question marks are really just related to You know, Jared Goff and whether you would start in this week, because more often than not, he's not been a good start. So golf at home in this matchup, or Bo Nix or Kyler Murray, you know, those are the, or Jordan Love, like, I can't see myself playing golf over those three other players. I can't either. But he could have a huge game. I'm not, 30 points. The problem with Goff is that if he doesn't have a huge game, he doesn't have a good floor.

It's not like he's going to go out there and put up 15 points and be a little disappointing. He doesn't run the ball. And so you can end up with a game where he's going to go out there and score six, seven points, even in a blowout victory. He had a number one overall week and week 11, and that was the surrounding games were 27th, 16th, and 24th. His consistency ranking on our side, if you've used the consistency charts, he's graded an F in consistency. Only 29% of his games over the last rolling 17 played are over 20 points at the quarterback position. So can you catch lightning in a bottle? Of course, you have the talent. You can catch a, you know, Jameson Williams could have two 70-yard touchdowns, but the odds are not in your favor there. And then Leporta right now, is borderline not playable at tight end? Yeah, I mean, what a devastating. You talk about draft picks that were disappointments. Yeah, I mean, he was the number one drafted tight end and he's.

pretty much not startable. Since Jameson Williams came back, Leporta has gone back to what he started the season as, which is a player that if you don't get a touchdown on his one or two catches, you're not very happy. And there have been other tight ends who have come to relevance. I mean, the Johnny Smith, Kate Otton's, Taysam Hills that, you know, were not even drafted, those guys are all definite starts over Sam Leporta. Scary start for DeAndre Swift in this one on the other side against the third ranked Lions defense that just shut down, what was it, Jonathan Taylor last week? Yeah, I think Swift is someone that is you look at your matchups and what your other options are. Shift away from DeAndre. Yeah. Jay, would you play Rico? I would play Rico, yeah. Okay. DJ Moore has had a couple of higher opportunity games. Are you, is there anybody on this?

Bears side that you're excited about? No, not excited. DJ Moore would be the one I would play of the three. Obviously, Keenan had a great game last week, you know, had almost 20 fantasy points. It was great, but that, he's been out there and he's been getting targets and not doing much with him. This is a tough matchup, so I'm going to trust the guy who has the manufactured touches the screen game that we've seen working for DJ Moore recently. The old heads have games here and there. The Hopkins, right? You get a big game here and there, but they don't generally do them. The Lions defense has just been so good. I don't like the match up, but it's a full desperation start. However, a right now Keenan is looking at a 32% first read to target share. Kyle, I assume that's from fantasy points. So they've made the switch under the new offensive coordinator. They're scheming.

Keenan targets now. Would you play Keenan this week in this matchup or Xavier Worthy on Friday? Oh, man. Because I feel like that's the tier you're right. Sure. Or Jacobi Myers in that same Friday game, those three players. I think I'd probably play Keenan over all of them. I would personally order them Jacobi Myers, Xavier Worthy, Keenan. Remember it's AOC. Yeah, yeah. We were talking through Jacoby this morning. I still think Jacoby with AOC is going to get 10 plus targets. The New York football giants at 2 and 9 take on the 4 and 7 Dallas Cowboys. The Drafking Sportsbook line Dallas minus 3.5. The overrunners just 37 points on Thanksgiving. It's Cooper Rush. It's Tommy DeVito. Not quite what you probably hope to be seeing.

on Thanksgiving if you're either of these fan bases. This is the lowest total of the week. If you ate too much, you're going to. Yeah, I mean, this will put you right to bed. Dallas, this is their lowest total on Thanksgiving in 20 years. Most importantly, it looks like sunset is 522 p.m. Kyle has put in a lot of solar analysis here. Kyle, can you break down what is happening here? Are we going to have sun? trajectory right into the windows there will be sun yes oh man there will be sun glaring in but where's the moon it shouldn't be too bad i mean it's a 430 kickoff you figure you're 522 sunset you should you should be good for most of the game second half no sun do they like have to pick like if you win the toss are you picking sun based decision making based on the sunset because jerry would have you you should like if you know when the sunset is

which apparently we know years in advance, according to Jerry. You should be picking side, right? That does actually make sense. It would make sense. But it literally only makes sense for a game like this. It's a 4.30 p.m. kickoff time. So this is the chance to be such a smart coach. To have a sweet advantage? Just what a great home field advantage they have. Wow. They didn't know what they should do. We all been saying put up curtains. You want the home field advantage. Turn those. Glass panels into like magnifying glass panels. We can't do it. Start burning your enemy. Like the ants. Yeah. Yeah, like the other team is the ants. But your team would be two. Yeah. You're on the same field. I don't think that's a good idea. Got to play the clock right. All right. Rico Dattles is my start of the week with the titanium underpants. His D.K. rushing lines at 65 and a half. That's pretty good. I can live with that. And he's been getting work in the passing. Yep. So if you've got a line of 65 and a half rushing yards and then.

You know, he's averaging three receptions per game over the last five. That's a good baseline. I like Tyrone Tracy, the player on the other side. I don't like all the peripherals. I don't like the on the road. I don't like Dallas defense being healthy. I don't like the fact that he's fumbled in two straight games. I don't like the fact his quarterback could be rotating at some point during the game. I don't like the fact Evan Singleton 3. He had a goal line touchdown last week. So Tracy is. I mean, he's in play, but he's riskier than maybe some other weeks. I would agree with that. I mean, last week he was down to 41% of snaps. You know, he had been up at 72, 80% when he was breaking out. I agree with you. Stop fumbling, man. I like the player. And I'm not worried about the matchup here. I don't think Dallas's rush defense is something that is scary. So he's certainly, I mean, he's got a 64.5 yard rushing line. So the expectation is still that he is.

the primary guy. I think you can start Tyrone Tracy. But it's this, this is going to be a nerve-wracking start because if he were to go out and fumble again, I wouldn't doubt that he just gets. Yeah, exactly. CD Lamb, you're still playing him. Yeah. But he has now slipped into, ironically, a category that is almost matched on the other side of the field in Malik Neighbors, which Malik Neighbors doesn't have a lack of targets. Let me read you his targets for his last five starts. 13, 11, 10, 9. Beautiful. He must have had great performances. His fantasy finishes 43, 38, 29, 3026. He's been basically about 10 points a game for fantasy. He's not destroying you, but you're not getting those big explosive games. You don't expect. No touchdowns. And if Tommy Cutlets is the quarterback, I think you're just going to expect more of the same. Plenty of targets, not very valuable, probably no touchdown.

Who do you like more? Lamb or neighbors? Oh, Lamb. Now, CD Lamb is what the rest of the season? Because everybody's going to still play him, but, you know, he was the wide receiver 19 last week, 20 the week before, double-digit targets in six straight. The rest of the season, CD-Lam is the wide receiver. 17. Oh, I think 10. He's getting, I mean, you don't think so? No. I don't think 10 because I don't think he's going to have many. You have to have touchdowns. Yeah, I don't think he'll get a few, but he's still a top 20 play, which is, that's every week. What did you say, Mike? 17. That's a number I would pick, maybe 15 to 17. Does that help at all if I move it to 15, Jay? Sure, that's fine. I'm just curious, you know, he's got four games without DAC now, and I'm curious where he is. Four games without DAC, he's probably sitting probably Wider Series 30.