Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

you know, like wide receiver two numbers. I think you'd be happy if he is your second wide receiver on your fantasy team. I don't think he's going to come like careening down back to earth like he, you know, like some might expect. Now, to piggyback on that, one guy that I think the comparison there that we need some analysis on is the Tyler Lockett, he began to essentially the second half of the year. I think he really developed. You saw him grow as a wide receiver.

And so we have a difficult time. I think Mike and I are pretty high on Lockett. It's not for a hatred of Doug Baldwin. It's for more than unsustainable numbers. I mean, most weeks towards the end of the year, it seemed like Lockett was capable of, you know, if the offense went to him in those situations, he was capable of putting up those same type of games. Where do you see those two guys and how they work out this year?

Yeah, I think hypothetically as we stand today, you know, we don't know what...

is the deal with Jimmy Graham, and quite frankly, like, I wouldn't put a ton of stock on him, you know, come roaring back early in the season, you know, from that Patel attendant. So he's most likely not going to be in consideration in this discussion, at least right now. I would expect Baldwin and Lockett to be kind of a 1A, 1B in the passing attack. You know, I would expect those two to be the two leaders and targets in terms of the Seahawks passing game. And so I think you can be pretty encouraged about both of them. Right now, if Lockett's the chance,

cheaper. Well, like, if you're drafting an MFL 10, I would imagine that Lockett is the cheaper asset. I think that that's probably the savvy move is to pick whichever one is going later, because like I said, I would expect them both to kind of push for 110 targets apiece and, you know, put up pretty similar numbers. And Lockett's definitely the sexier, more big play threat. So I can understand that logic. But I do think Lockett could be the guy, like, come, you know.

July and August when more people are starting to pay attention to fantasy football that he becomes, you know, everybody's favorite. He's dropped it ahead of him. Yeah, I could see, I could totally see that happening. So, you know, it's kind of one of those situations where I see the two players very similarly, and I'd rather just take whichever one is cheaper. Yeah, it makes sense. So talking to another situation where we could have a 1A, 1B, the Detroit Lions, they lost their superstar, Calvin Johnson. They replaced him with Marvin Jones, the superstar.

Marvin Jones, not to crap on him. I think he's a good receiver. But you got Golden Tate, who we saw was the Yakmaster two years ago when Calvin Johnson went down, leading the league and yards after catch and just being, I'm putting up wide receiver one numbers weekly.

Like a monster. So how do you see Detroit shaking out? Can Golden Tate be a wide receiver one? Will Marvin Jones actually be the one? A, what's your take on them? Yeah, it's a tough situation right now. I wrote after, you know, when the rumors were first circulating about Calvin Johnson retiring before he announced it officially that.

you know, based on their, both of their reception results, you know, Calvin Johnson, of course, can still play. Like, he was certainly declining, and he would have had to kind of change his role should he have stayed around. But clearly didn't want to do that. And that's, you know, his prerogative and that's fine. But I don't think that Golden Tate, based on his reception numbers, is ready to step into like a, you know, a 16-game stretch.

number one wide receiver role. I think that if he gets peppered with targets, which he certainly will be, he'll be useful for fantasy. I just was kind of encouraging people in that piece not to go too far ahead with Golden Tate. Like the one thing I don't want to see is like, you know, analysis that's all based on like extrapolating that three game stretch in 2014, you know, like this is what Golden Tate's going to do without Calvin Johnson. I think there's a little bit more to it than that.

And so I think Tate will be good. I love Golden Tate as a player. Like, you know, he's one of those fun guys to watch because he'll jostle with other players. And he's just a treat. I like him a lot. But I like him for what he is, you know, and I don't want to see him get too stretched too far out of that very particular role that helps the Lions offense. And that brings me to Marvin Jones, who I think he's a good player. He has one of the best contested catch conversion rates that I've ever charted. He's really solid after the catch. I think he's just really good at a lot of different things.

One thing that I kind of question with him, though, is like he kind of gets billed as a deep threat. And that was one area where I thought he kind of scored below average, well, not thought. He did score below average for reception perceptions. So I see him more as a guy that you want to work the boundaries, make good plays in traffic, and kind of work in that sort of, you know, underneath to short intermediate areas of the field. So I think he will be a very helpful.

player for the lion's offense, but he's another guy that I don't, like, I still don't think they have their true number one receiver, and it wouldn't completely shock me if they want to just continue to build that strength up if they went with a high draft pick at wide receiver and throw them into the mix, you know, especially if they want to reach for upside, they maybe take a Corey Coleman at 15 or something of that nature, because I still think they're just not done at the wide receiver position. They've got two guys that I think.

can be your number two option and you're really happy with them, but I still think that they need that true number one. I don't think they have it right now. Yeah, I'll bet they add a wide receiver in the draft. I am curious, though. Let's say they didn't. Let's say they don't add a wide receiver in the draft. Both both him and, I'm sorry. Tate. Yes, Tate is his name. Both Tate and Doug Baldwin are going in the fifth round. So the pick comes up. Who do you think would have a better year between those two guys?

Oh man, that's a tough question. You're on the clock, Harmon. Yeah, I know, no kidding. I think that, and I could easily default to like, well, if it's PPR, I'll take tape. Exactly what I was thinking. It's a half point PPR. Yeah, right. I'm not going to do that. I think the Tate is the better player, but I'm going to kind of default to.

A more healthier, more well-constructed offense with the stronger quarterback. Like, you know, if I can default to a similar level player that I think will get kind of the same amount of targets and he's just attached to a better quarterback, I'm going to go with that. And that would be obviously Doug Baldwin with Russell Wilson. I think that he will just be a more consistent week-to-week performer. No love for Maddie's snapback. No.

So we'll wrap it up here. We can't let you have the hook without at least giving us, give us that one or two rookies that you see if they get in the perfect position can be a high level to, maybe even sneak into that low level wide receiver one category. If anybody fits that bill, who's going to do it? Well, it's great because...

I think this year we're not going to see wide receivers really go in like the top 10 or anything, or maybe even the top 15. We might see a guy sneak in there. There are certainly some good landing spots, but that really means that we're going to get a lot of opportunities for these young players to get with better teams if they're going later in the first round. And, you know, I look at a guy like Laquan Treadwell, I think, can make an immediate impact. I think that the...

concerns about his workout are a little overblown. I think he certainly proved himself as a better route runner that people than people give him credit for. I think he could step in and play.

day one. And I also feel the same way about Josh Dox, and the two are very close in my mind. And I could see either one of those guys landing in a spot like, you know, in Atlanta or Cincinnati or even Minnesota and start challenging for 100 plus targets their rookie year. I think both those guys are ready made to contribute in the NFL. And keep an eye out. I mentioned on Corey Coleman, you know, if he lands in a spot that there's some available targets and they need.

that deep threat he's not he might not produce on a week to week basis but he's a guy that could you know be the throat stomper you know like your wider like if he hits his peak he could be a wide receiver three in year one and like he's going to just have those weeks where he just puts the foot on the throat of the opponent goes full mortal combat finish him finish him sort of yeah exactly so big oh you have more

No, I was just going to say, I mean, those are the three top guys. But look, you know, I'm also a big fan of Sterling Shepard. And if he lands in a spot that needs like a slot receiver, he could be a PPR asset right away. So a big thank you to Matt Harmon. He's all over the place. If you somehow have been living under a rock, but NFL.com, reception, and a big shout to if you haven't checked out the backyard banter podcast.

Harmon is doing something really special over there, getting industry people telling their story of how they got where they were. They're not doing fantasy analysis. They're doing job analysis. And we frequently get asked the question, how did we make our start? And that's what Harmon's asking these people. And he has some fantastic guests with great stories.

that I think is really helping a lot of people. So check out the backyard banter podcast. Is there anything else, Harmon, that you want to plug?

No, I mean, that's pretty much it for right now. I appreciate you guys have me on. Of course, in the kind words about my podcast, you know, it has been a really fun experience and more people have been interested in it than I thought were going to be. And I think that the guests really do a great job of, you know, telling relatable stories of people, even if they're not interested in making a career in football, that people can really relate to and get inspired by. I mean, so it's really all them. I'm just kind of the guy that books them and then sits there.

Ask some questions. But I got to have you guys on at some point, too, and definitely tell your story. There's just so many interesting people to talk to. I'm kind of overwhelmed by it. That's why I started doing two a week because it's like, well, shoot, just crank these things out. Yeah. And what's your Twitter real quick for people? Yeah, Matt Harmon underscore B-Y-B. There you go. So I'm sure we'll have you on again in the future, but best of luck.

Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot. Thank you. A big thank you to Matt Harmon. As we said, NFL.com, recepts and perception everywhere. Everywhere that there's fantasy football, there's Matt Harmon and for good reason. Look, great dude, great analysis. Absolutely. And this show, if you know, if you've been listening for a while, this is a show where we don't tell you to take our prescription. This is a show where we tell you to evaluate.

good information and make decisions on your own. So it's more about equipping you to make the right decision for you and your team because so many teams are different. Your league's different. The decision making is different. Jason said it earlier in the show. You know, we provide rankings. You take those rankings and you factor in the draft position. You factor in the bias of the teams in your league and so many different pieces of that puzzle. And so we just want to equip you to have a great...

off season. That's why this is a year-round show. We're like a safety deposit box for the football information. You go to it when you need it, when you want it. You say, I'm going to find this little piece that my league doesn't know about, aka the government. Am I right? Am I right? And you get a private room and you open it up. Yeah, when no one's looking. All by yourself.

Yeah, it's nothing like a safety deposit box. Yeah, I think that analogy holds nothing. No, no. That's... Nothing or... I would say that's 11, 115. No, it was 14 and a half. Stupid. 14 and a half hundred. 14 and a half hundred. You did, I'll tell you, it's this stupid seat. I moved to the front, I got dumber. There you go. Well, there's residue.