Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

of Thomas is so lethal and elites that he has to be up here for what he's done. All right, number 15 on our list is Golden Tate. Now, that might surprise some people. It surprised me how high I had Golden Tate. And it really came down to, look, he plays 16 games every year, 90 plus receptions. Last year, the big disparity for Golden Tate season was the average yards per catch. And that might be connected to the quantity of games that Calvin Johnson played.

He's not a high touchdown guy, and that's the problem. So he's another guy that fits into that, maybe where we said Keenan Allen has a big disparity. But Golden Tate is now, he doesn't have Calvin Johnson. And we're going to talk to Harmon about Tate, but do you guys have anything you want to throw in right now? It's last year, I mean, nine yards per catch. That's so low. That's incredibly low. It's an outlier. And not normal for him, not just for all wide receivers, but that is not how Golden Tate usually plays. And to...

To illustrate that point for listeners, the difference in his catches from 2014 and 15 were nine. The difference of his yards because of that, about 500. 500 yard difference with nine receptions difference. Different. So just to illustrate the outlier that that was, nine is so incredibly low, especially for a guy who was the leader in yards after the catch. And I think 13 is a bit high.

I actually think he's right. He's a man in the middle. I think it'll be closer to an 11, maybe 11.5 yards per catch. But he'll still be in the 90 catch range because we know the Detroit Lions of Maddie Snapback.

He likes to sling it. He is, to me, a volume guy. He's not, you know, he's not the clear cut one that you would want on a team. But there are so many targets that are leaving for, that went to Calvin that I just think he's going to have a hundred receptions. So he's another volume guy. PPR and standard. They're going to be significantly different, I believe. Yeah, but I did so, so do you guys feel that Golden Tate can be a one? I think Golden Tate.

Can in a PPR be a fantasy one? I don't believe he is. I'm speaking strictly fantasy right now. Strictly fantasy, I think he could sneak into being the 12th guy in a PPR. All right. That's very fair. But I don't necessarily expect it. I don't want him as my one. Whatever that says, I don't want him as my one. Completely agree. And so number 16, before we get into the Harmon interview.

And we'll talk Golden Tate. We'll talk some other guys like Doug Baldwin, who's not on this list. But number 16. A guy that I want more than Golden Tate on my team that is hanging with Mr. Amari Cooper. Scooby-Dub-Dub-Doo-Doo-Doo. So Amari Cooper, number 16, I think I was surprised that I didn't have him higher. That's fair. That's pretty much. And that, you know, we talked about Watkins. The issue with Watkins might be this volume number or a week-to-week consistency.

I still have that concern about Cooper, and it's from the cars. Really? It's from Carr, not Cooper. It's can Carr piece together consistent weeks at the quarterback position to make Cooper the value that you'd want from a wide receiver one? Because I think, you know, you asked me, who do I want as my one? I'd take Cooper as my one over Golden Tate. For sure. But Carr showed me last year that there were weeks where whether it was going away from him, whether the way that the team played.

You know, if they draft Ezekiel Elliott this year or somebody that makes that running game even more of the option that Del Rio wants to go with, can I get, can Cooper give me wide receiver one numbers nine out of ten weeks? Or is it going to be something where it's two-thirds of the time and I'm kind of regretting having him in that spot as opposed to spinning the pick on?

Jordy Nelson or somebody like that. Yeah, Jack Del Rio is probably my main reason why I had him at 88 receptions, Mari Cooper this year, which, you know, you'd hope he gets closer, you know, to that 90s, 100 level. But the problem is Jack Del Rio teams, they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, they want to be a little bit more old school. Last year, when you don't have the defense and you don't necessarily have the running game, you just...

have no choice. And so Mari Cooper had that. But if things go well for the Raiders this year, and I like what they've done in the offseason, and I think there's a good chance they do go out and get in Ezekiel Elliott, although I'm hoping they don't. Latavis Murray, my boy. But if that happens, then it's going to slow down the passing attack, which will be good for the Raiders, but bad for fantasy. I think the passing, at least in terms of volume, you're looking at something that can be very similar. But the difference this year will

To me, last year, Michael Crabtree, 146 targets. Amari Cooper, 130. And you can't rule out the injury that he played through the last 25% of the season. Very true. I think those targets flip. I think that Amari Cooper will become the official one. I mean, he's as highly touted as he was. He's still a rookie.

You still have to learn how to play in the NFL, and you have Crabtree who's the widely vet. For rookies, it's more the grind when they hit the second half of the season. You come out gangbusters, what did he have? He was the first rookie to have, what, 300-yard games in his first six? Yes, which is tremendous. So you saw the talent immediately. Oh, yeah. And I think that he'll be far more conditioned for a full 16 game NFL season. I would be.

I like him to be the one, so I think he can sustain those high numbers. I would be very content to hang with Mr. Cooper on draft day. I'll tell you that. Now, we're going to, that rounds out our top 16. One of you guys want to quickly read back the eight we talked about today? Yeah, I'll grab it. So the eight that we talked about today, we started with last year's man of the show, Alan Robinson. Then we moved to Alshan Jeffrey and Jordy Nelson.

Got into PPR machine, Keenan Allen, my boy Sammy Watkins, Demarius Thomas, Golden Tate, and Amari hanging with Mr. Cooper. And so we will put our rankings up on the website very soon. You'll be able to see all the way down the list. Obviously, wide receivers are very deep. You start three in a lot of leagues, depending on your format. And we'll talk about some of the guys outside of this top 16 with Mr. Matt Harmon from NFL.com, who will bring in right now. You talking to me?

The fantasy footballers are pleased to bring back a good friend of the show, Matt Harmon, who has to now be considered the prince of the podcast, because this guy is the guest appearance master all over the podcast universe if you haven't noticed. Making the rounds. Because he is truly the man, the man with the plan when it comes to wide receivers, and of course all over all other fantasy information.

How are you doing today, Matt? Yeah, I'm doing great. And it's fun because, as you mentioned, I've been on a lot of podcasts lately. And I know we're going to be talking about something different than draft prospects.

today because that's mostly what I've been talking about, you know, the reception, perception results for the incoming rookies and everything. So today, it'll be refreshing to kind of not have to say the same thing because I try to vary it up a little bit. But after a while, I do all these podcasts, I'm like, man, how are people still listening to me? How are we on about this? I made the joke on Twitter. Let's start with the draft process. No, I said, LeQuon Treadwell. All right, guys, I'm out. All right, so we wanted to talk to, to Harmon about some lower...

considered ranked wide receivers because you got the top 10 you can we're exhausted talking about the top 10 let's get a little bit deeper and some guys that we have a differing opinion on and I'm going right for the throat going right for Andy's jugular right off the bat is this my guy Dante Moncrief my guy obviously for the Colts he's kind of there too

Andy and I have a very differing opinion on his ability and what he could do this year. So do you have any thoughts? Have you broken him down at all from last year?

Yeah, this is actually great timing and totally didn't set this up, but he's actually the guy I'm charting right now. Oh, yeah. Not literally as we speak, but I'm in progress with him about five or six games into his eight game sample. And I've always been a really big – well, I shouldn't say always because coming out of school, I wasn't a big Dante Moncrie fan. I thought that he really lacked any sort of nuance in his routes and at times just –

It was so hard to judge him because the quarterback play at Old Miss was really kind of poor at that time. But he was very productive, nevertheless, for the state of considering the state of that offense. But he still just was a guy that I didn't see developing into a starting caliber receiver. But his rookie year reception perception was very impressive relative to what I was expecting. Again, like I mentioned, I wasn't planning on being very impressed with him. But the results were very good. I thought that he consistently executed.

the limited assignments that the Colts were handing him at the time. And then last year, you really started to see him kind of come along there, especially in the first two weeks. He had a really dynamic game against the Jets in week two, where he really showed that he had, he's one of those receivers that is clearly developing as a route runner and as a nuanced technician.

And I appreciate that because you know the athletic gifts are there as far as speed and playing the ball in the year. That is clearly something that he came out of school with. But now it looks like he's developing more of a professional. And I really thought that he was going to have this big breakout. I started touting that early last year. But of course, then he ran into the Panthers and the Broncos in back-to-back weeks and then lost Andrew Luck for the rest of the season. So.

To me, I think we're kind of still incomplete with him, but he's a player I'm super high on. I love his skill set and his ability, and I think that this year could be a big time year for him. Yeah, that could be. I liked Moncrief a lot, and then you just wonder what's going to happen with luck a year removed and Philip Dorset. But the guy that I want to talk about the most. Quick transition. Yeah, quick transition. It is a guy that, you know, some people, I think.

get down on people that are high on him because we've seen him for several years. He's been in the league. He's been a nothing for the most part. But then the second half of last year, Doug Baldwin comes screaming onto the scene. He gets, you know, what would equate to like a 30 touchdown pace, which of course is not sustainable. That's good. It's good. And so the question is when we're drafting is which is the real Doug Baldwin? So I wanted to talk to the guy who watches more film.

on wide receivers than anybody and say, what did you see at the end of last year? Was it just happenstance, or did he actually do something different? Where should we be looking at Doug Baldwin?

You know, I've always appreciated Doug Baldwin as a player for what he was. And, you know, he came out. I think it was during one of these Seahawks playoff runs, they're all kind of starting to run together at this point. And he said, he was like, you know, if I was in a different offense, I would be putting up numbers like one of the best receivers in the league. And that's probably him being confident in himself for sure, which I appreciate, no doubt.

But you certainly saw that when the offense transitioned from a lynch-centric run-heavy approach to something more centered around Russell Wilson executing from the pocket, you saw Doug Baldwin start to put up numbers. And like you mentioned, we can't expect him to put up, you know, 14 touchdowns again, especially at the ridiculous pace that he did last year. He averaged 10.4 yards per target. That's probably not going to happen again. So there's going to be some statistical regression, but I don't think it's going to be very, it's going to be like catastrophic or anything like that.

I think he did definitely take a legitimate step forward last year. But also, you know, he got pretty much what was for Russell Wilson, historic elite play from the quarterback position in the pocket last year. So if the Seahawks offense is going to continue down that path, I would expect Baldwin to continue to post.