Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

Last year in eight games, this includes a not full game because his kidney exploded. 89 targets. His rookie year, when people, oh, Keenan Allen, that was quite the breakout. 105 targets in 15 games. Here he is half a season. He's got 89 targets. I mean, that's out of control. And while I like the average catch much better in his rookie year, the thing about him with it, he had a 10.8 average.

That can't go down. That cannot go down. That can only go up or stay status quo. And his connection with Philip Rivers was incredible. Keenan Allen, after that disappointing sophomore season, he did came out and he said, look, he was riding the coattails of his rookie year. He was drinking his own Kool-Aid, you know, thinking, oh, I'm new the hotness. I don't have to put in the extra work. He realized that that was a mistake.

And you could tell that. Can't do that in the NFL. You could tell that in his third year when he was breaking out. I think that the offense for San Diego remains similar, where Keenan Allen is the go-to. I see Travis Benjamin as a Malcolm Floyd type level replacement. And I just see that those targets, I don't think that's an anomaly. I think that will stay.

extremely high. He'll be one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL next year. I agree. I do think, though, that what you're saying says that his low yards per reception is going to stay pretty low because that's kind of how any of those guys that get 115 receptions are usually guys who aren't.

always stretching the field. They're running the shorter routes, getting those quick passes, part of just a system. And that's what Keenan Allen is. So he is, to me, one of my biggest discrepancies between PPR and standard. So that's where, know your league. If you're a PPR, bump Keenan up quite a bit. And if you're in a standard league, don't take him probably...

you know, as a guaranteed wide receiver one. That being said, even in standard, when you've got those guys that get over 100 catches, there's just a consistency factor that they might not finish as the number eight wide receiver that you would hope that they would finish as, but they're never going to burn your team because they just put up points every game because every catch is yards and you're still going to get points. All right, I want to get to number 13 on our list because I know it will be a hotly debated.

Subject. Is it? And that is number 13 himself. Sammy Watkins, 60 receptions, 100, 1,000 yards last year, nine touchdowns. And we have in the studio had plenty of Sammy Watkins discussions. We will have them now before you. We disagree about Sammy Watkins only in the fact that, you know, we all have him ranked as a top 20 guy. Okay. Let me say that. Jason.

I'm the reason he's this high. Yes. Jason is in love with Sammy Watkins. Jason writes letters. He's a pen pal. I look at pictures. Sammy doesn't write back. You guys remember pen pals? Did you have a pen pal in elementary school? I had a best friend in kindergarten that left. I went to another state and we had to write letters and then that died off after like six months and never talked to him again. Did you write cursives? I did. Yeah. Well, not a kindergartner. I guess I didn't.

Just a flash to the past. So Sammy Watkins, 13 games last year. Talk, I mean, make the case for Samuel Watkins next year. But make sure you make it as poorly as you did in the studio. Okay. I will make the case for Sammy Watkins very clearly. Sammy Watkins is one of, now, there's a lot of talented receivers out there. But not everybody is Sammy Watkins elite.

Talent. Think about this wide receiver class from two years ago, right? The most unbelievable wide receiver class in the history of the NFL. And the guy who going into the draft was the kind of clear-cut consensus number one of that incredible group was Sammy Watkins. This was a guy who was a...

you know, one of those generational type of wide receivers coming in. Well, he's dealt with a lot of injury. At the start of last year, he was dealing with injury with some ankle problems, missed a couple games early. But if you look at what he did in the second half of last year, and I realize that Buffalo is not a wide receiver focused team. They're a running team. But just like, you know, you've got the Jets who weren't a wide receiver focused team, and you had two great options. Sammy Watkins.

On the second half of the year, last year, was the number four wide receiver. Now, I'm not extrapolating that out and say, well, then he'll be the number four wide receiver this year. I believe I've got him ranked as the eight, but definitely a wide receiver won. His talent, his ascension coming into the third year, his rapport being built now with Tyrod Taylor, what you saw in the second half of the year, and if you look at the targets and the receptions, those numbers between what happened when he was struggling with the injuries early and when he was healthy late,

I believe Sammy Watkins, here's a deal. I'm going to take a guy who is the clear number one on a team, who is one of the most talented guys in the league, and I'm going to put my chips on him. And if I'm wrong, I'm happy being wrong because I'm taking that talent. He is uber talented. And I don't want us to forget that just because he's had a couple injuries that were a little bit more fluky. And I will counter your talent arguments.

With your argument that you love, and that is opportunity. Yep. And this is the only reason that I have Watkins lower. I actually have them as a lower-range wide receiver too. It's the system. Buffalo per game had the second lowest average pass attempts with just over 29 attempts a game. That is outrageously low when you're talking the top half of the league from 15 up.

are about 37 attempts. Can I jump into there and just add this to your point? Absolutely. They were the second lowest pass attempts in the league, and everybody would agree that Rex Ryan's defense took a huge step back in Buffalo. So their defense struggled. They were put in positions to be that prototypical Jaguars coming back from the game, and they still were second lowest in the league. So...

I have Watkins with such a lower reception total than the other guys. I think he will get in the end zone, and I think he will make big plays. But I'll let you continue. That's just, that's it. It's Rex Ryan. Just his teams over the years have shown me that that's not how he plays. That's not how he coaches. We tie Rod Taylor, we saw him, you know, have a mini breakout party. I think he could be the answer of Buffalo, but he's the answer because he fits into the...

to what they want to do of past sometimes, but the focus is running the ball. So I just, the opportunity for Sammy Watkins to be that high-level wide receiver won for an entire season. I just don't see it. It's the week-to-week part that makes him the struggle for me. It's not that he won't have games where he, I mean, I would not doubt it in any way that he leads like three weeks next year as the best wide receiver that week.

It's just a matter of can I roll them in there like I would roll in a, you know, Alan Robinson or Jordy Nelson or Mike Evans. I don't think I can't. That's kind of what I was just talking about with Jordy versus Alshan. When I'm at guys that I like around the same, I am going to always side on the target side. So that is a very fair point. Mike, you bring up the fact that I am Mr. Opportunity over talent. And this one is not necessarily.

Mr. Opportunity, but there aren't a lot of other wide receiving, you know, pass catching options there at Buffalo. So I think the vast lion share will go to Sammy Watkins. Just to get a frame of reference for the Foot Clan here, I'm looking at a current ADP, early ADP granted, but just this is what people are doing right now. And that is average draft position. Yes, thank you. Sammy Watkins or Mari Cooper, Jason.

I would take Sammy Watkins. I would take Amarie Cooper. Sammy Watkins or Brandon Marshall. I would take Brandon Marshall. Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans. Sammy Watkins or this is where it will differ or Keenan Allen. I would take Keenan Allen personally. That one would truly be. In a pure standard though, it would be pretty darned. I'm looking at standard to be fair. If it is standard, then I would go Watkins. But just all the guys I listed are being drafted average.

behind Sammy Watkins. Okay. That's good to know. And it is really important for the Foot Clan. You don't just take rankings and print them off and come into a draft and blindly go by that without considering ADP because value matters. So whenever you draft, make sure, you know, if you're using the online tool, look at, you know, oh man, I like this guy next, but he's like three rounds later here and hold off and grab the guys with better value. It's a smarter way to draft. I completely agree.

That's an important point to remember. And Watkins is hyper talented. I agree with that fact. He's a big guy. I think he's 6-3, and he makes a lot of plays, and him and Tyra Taylor connect on a lot of deep balls. So he's somebody that... Man, Tyra Taylor's deep ball. Yeah, it's great. And one of the things I think you see with Mike sharing the average opposition information about Watkins right now is you see probably...

an end-of-year focus there with Watkins, where he was so good towards the end of the season that he's surpassing. Maybe appropriately, we'll find out those other guys that we would all, I mean, even Jason said most of those, he would take, well, I guess you were about split on those guys, but Evans and Jeffrey and those guys you had ahead of Watkins. Yeah, yeah. I don't think Watkins is, you know, I've got him eight right now in my half point based on,

When I go into the draft, then I'm not sure where I'm going to be drafting him based on average draft position. All right. So number 14 is Demarius Thomas on our consensus rankings. And I want to get through these last three pretty quickly here because we do have Matt Harmon coming on the show. And he's going to talk about at least one of these guys with us. So we don't have to say a whole lot about him. But Demarius Thomas is not, I don't think we'll bring him up. So 16 games last year. Ho-hum, 1,300.

Six touchdowns. Demarius Thomas, the best argument for Demarius Thomas being at this spot or higher is that he just is Demarius Thomas. He does what he does and he does it over and over again, and it doesn't seem to matter what the situation is. He just puts up big numbers. Well, I mean, that was a terrible year.

It was terrible. Everybody who drafted Demarius Thomas was disappointed. You look back and you go, ah, D.T. Sop last year. You stunk with your 105 receptions and 1,300 yards. Yeah, that's the point. It's like, don't be too sour on a guy who in his down year with terrible quarterback play was fantastic. Now you're taking Watkins over him? I will probably take Watkins over to Marius Thomas, yes. So DeMarius Thomas, what if Kaepernan came to Denver?

Not that there's any percentage chance of that whatsoever. But if hypothetically a miracle, you were going that direction? If that happened, then I would probably most certainly take Sammy Watkins over to Marius times. I'm not sure Cap helps him. So, Thomas, the last four years, this is his average, his average stateline for the last four years, 101 receptions, 14 and a half, 100.

14 and a half hundred. You know what? As I was saying it, it was like, this is not coming out. That was awesome. I don't even know what that meant. What was the original 14 and a half hundred? There's 14 and a half hundreds. 14 and a half hundreds. I don't know. What I like is that there was no, he just proceeded. He just kept going. It was just, it was like, okay, brain or mouth.

I don't think what came out was real. Let's see if I can get away with it. Maybe it was, so we'll just keep going. What was the stat? I'm curious. 14.50 is what I was trying to go with. Okay. 14.5-100. I see it. 14.5-100. Okay. So 101 catches just under 14.5 yards yards and 10 touchdowns. One tenth of 100 touchdowns.

His average 10 touchdowns the last four years. I mean, you're talking Des Bryant level of scoring right there. So he was a difficult guy for me because one, you don't really know who the quarterback is going to be. Is it going to be Mark Sanchez, the butt fumbler? Will it be? The best introduction he's ever got. Will it be Colin Kaepernick? Will it be a draft pick? We just, we have no clue right now what they're going to do for quarterback. But the talent.