Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

The NFL running back discount? So essentially, I think what we expect from Alan Robinson, you've got an ascending offense, an exceptional talent, and I think he will get more targets this year and more receptions this year and a regression on the touchdowns, and he'll finish about near where he did last year. I think he finishes a little lower than he did last year, and he's probably overdrafted, but I'd be happy.

with Alan Robinson on any of my teams. It's just the touchdowns. It's the fact that they had three rushing touchdowns outside of Bordles who had two, and Blake Bortles threw for 35. I don't see either of those approaching that. I think Bortles would be closer to 30, and the rushing touchdowns will be closer to 10. Well, and if you look at it, like I haven't projected for nine touchdowns. That's a high touchdown total for a wide receiver.

And that's still a reduction of five touchdowns. And that makes the difference a lot of the times in these rankings that we do. One or two touchdowns, that projection makes a huge impact on where they end up. So still love Alan Robinson. Still think he's probably, I mean, he's got to be what, top three or four in dynasty leagues? He's pretty high. Pretty high. I don't know about four. Maybe around that four or five area. I mean, obviously, Odell Beckham Jr. is ahead of him.

Probably Julio. Brown and Julio. They're for sure. Okay. So, all right. And number 10, we have Alshan Jeffrey. Now, Jeffrey is a guy that will divide, I think, a lot of fantasy owners because when you draft Alshan Jeffrey, you're doing two things. You're drafting injury risk and you're drafting incredible potential. He's a guy who has done it, who's gone out there and put up a huge season before. And when he's on the field, he's great. He might be top five great.

We have them at 10, and I think that is factoring in some of the doubts that we have about him being able to play a full 16 game season. Jason, what is your take on Alshan Jeffrey? And why is Jeffrey, here's a good example or a question for you, why is Jeffrey sitting here at 10 when a guy like Mike Evans is up at 7 for you?

For me, the reason is because when you look at what Alshan did last year when he was on the field, he was the guy. I think Kevin White coming is going to be mostly neutral, but it will take away a couple of the red zone opportunities because now you've got two guys you can throw it to. I've got Alshan statted for almost 100 catches, over 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns. That's a huge, huge season. He is actually...

I believe, tied in my rankings with Mike Evans, who has very, very similar stats, fewer receptions. It's just a matter of how do you think the Chicago offense is going to produce next year? They've lost Matt Forte, who's a guy that picks up first downs when they're needed with those little dump-offs. Is that going to hurt the offense at all, or is it going to be kind of just the same because you add Kevin White? I think they have a better defense.

I think you have a team that might draft a running back in this upcoming draft, and you have no Adam Gays there in Chicago, and obviously Jay Cutler is still there. But that's a very optimistic stat line to me. That is a stat line that says you're betting on Alshan Jeffrey to play in a quantity of games to accumulate a 1,400-yard season. Now, he's had one double-digit touchdown year in his career, which was a different season than a 1,400-yard season that he's had.

So those things haven't happened together. Now, how many touchdowns did you say 10? Nine. Nine. Okay. So, Mike, what is your thoughts on Jeffrey? I pretty much echo everything from Jason. I'm actually, when I statted him out just where he fell of the season I was projecting, he came out 16 for me, which was, and still is a shock for me. I love Alshan. I think he's a strong wide receiver one.

So I'll be going back through. Maybe he gets a little bump from me. But that's, it's just that range, it could speak to that range of guys once you get out of the known elites of how close they are to me, of how I like all these guys. But Alshan's potential is a top five guy if he can be on the field. Like you said, the 2013 magical season. I believe that was with McCown.

when he had over 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. I think he could do that again. And obviously the Bears think that too. They gave him a one year $14.6 million tender. He is 26. So you talk about being born in the 70s. He's born in the 90s. So that's a nice upgrade. And, you know, he's got to stay healthy. But those are the type of plays where if you could, if you draft running back and you're sitting there in the second round and Alston Jeffries on the board, which in most.

I mean, we don't expect that to be different. That should be the case. Sure. Second and third round even. It's a great thing. Drafting a guy with the potential to be a one, I mean, like a high-end one, is great. I like that kind of pick, especially if you've got a solidified early running back that you think you're going to get a lot out of. You know, Jeffrey, okay, so he gets banged up, but he gives you those top five numbers when he's healthy. To be fair to Jeffrey, the two seasons before 2015, he played every game.

Yeah, he's not an injury prone guy, and I wanted to bring that up. Oh, for sure. But last year, you know what it reminded me of? It reminded me of his predecessor, Brandon Marshall, when he had that one year where he was just constantly injured. Multiple injuries. Multiple injuries. It's just a, once you get that snowball rolling. That's soft tissue. It's very difficult to get over it. But the rest of his career, normally he's playing, you know, every game. So I'm not worried about Alshan Jeffrey as an injury risk coming into this season. If in the.

The camp, preseason time, though, you see soft tissue issues. Sure. They don't seem severe. Soft tissue issues just sounds funny to me. It's almost as good as reception perception. There you go.

But if you see some of those, you called it a snowball because that's what it was. You hurt one thing and then something else hurts because of it. You overcompensate. LaShawn McCoy had that happen last year. We see guys just keep trying to play on it because everybody got down. I mean, there were reports last year that people were down on Alton Jeffrey in the organization because he wasn't getting back on the field fast enough.

So that would be the thing that... Well, you combine that with Kevin White being out. I mean, as an organization, and it's like, okay, they wanted Kevin White. He had these weird stress factors. You have so many guys out last year. You have Alshan. Alshan who's banged up in a contract year. I don't blame him for stretching or putting himself out there. You don't want your last impression to be like you're not an elite player like he is. So I don't blame him at all for that.

All right, so number 11 on the list. So we came up with Alan Robinson and then Alshan Jeffrey. Now we have number 11 is Jordy Nelson, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Mike seems exceptionally joyous over the return of Jordy Nelson, somebody who was perennially undervalued and yet finished in that top echelon, top three, I think, a couple of times. So Mike...

What are we expecting from Jordy Nelson? How do you have him projected? Where would you take him in the draft? What's his birthday? What's his favorite food? The birthday, I don't know. The favorite food is actually chili peppers. Really? It's a little known fact about Jordy. Gives him extra pep in his step. Okay. So I've heard. But, look, Jordy Nelson is, I was talking the last show about Marshall and AJ Green. Just for some reason.

There's certain guys the greatness is forgotten. Whether the shine is off because it's on somebody new. It's on, you know, like a Robinson, a Beckham. You forget how amazing Jordy Nelson is. And you saw the entire Green Bay offense just shut down for their standards when Jordy Nelson was not on the field last year. I'm pulling up the numbers real quick on Jordy's.

year, so two years ago when he didn't tear the ACL. 98 receptions over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. And that put him, I believe, number two, right? He was number two wide receiver in all of fantasy. So do I think he can match that? No. But do I still think that he can be an elite guy with eight, nine touchdowns, 1,200 yards in the 90 catch range? Absolutely.

A site, a resource that we talk about a lot is rotoviz.com. They have some fantastic stuff on there. A writer, Justin Wynn, did a huge breakdown of wide receivers because the concern with Nelson is his age. I suggest you go check out the article. But essentially, he was saying that guys who put up big numbers when they're 29, don't worry about him. Just because he's 31, don't worry about that. That was great. It was something like 80% have great seasons at his current age.

The ACL would be a possible concern. For me, I've got... It's so early, though. Yeah, I've got Jordy as the number 12. So my last of the wire receiver ones. That being said in most drafts that I've seen, he goes above Alshan Jeffrey. And to me, yeah, and I would not draft Jordy ahead of Alshan. So we're talking about these guys back to back, the order that... I would. I would, personally. So you would go... I would take Jory. Right now I have Alshon ahead of Jordy, but I might adjust that.

The thing we need to remember is there was another wide receiver last year who has an established track record that was entering his year 31 season. Do you guys know who that was that put up a number three overall season? Brandon Marshall. Brandon Marshall put up 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns with Ryan Fitzpatrick in New York. Jordy Nelson is coming back at age. He's about to turn 31 in May.

Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick's looking for a new home, so maybe he goes to... Green Bay take over for Aaron Roger. So all I'm saying is that should give you some context for the kind of... He missed an entire season, too. He did not... I know that wasn't a good reason, like ACL tear, but it wasn't like he was on the field building mileage up on those legs, and he's a hardworking guy, and he's done it year in and year out. There's no reason he can't go out and give you one of those high yardage, high touchdown seasons.

I think he is worth his weight in gold in your draft where you're actually going to get him. Yeah. Nice reference. His rapport with Aaron Rogers is uncanny. They know each other's. They know where Jordy's going to run on every coverage. He knows his birthday. He knows his birthday. They just have something special between those two.

Aaron Rogers going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year after what happened last year. So, Jordy could have a huge breakout season. He could be top five. I just don't, I don't see his, put it this way. Breakout? I think Alshan Jeffrey, I think Alshan Jeffrey will have more receptions than Jordy on the year. And I'm going to lean that way when I, when I'm on the board and these two great options are there. That's why, Mike, I would go out. That's fair.

You guys want to water bet it? No. I think both of us like both of those guys. When we get closer, that could happen. Keenan Allen is number 12 on our consensus, wide receiver rankings. His season, a great one at that, was cut short due to a lacerated kidney, I believe in week nine, maybe week eight.

And he was on pace to essentially lead the league in receptions or be really, really close in that category. He was the go-to guy for Philip Rivers. Coming into last year, you had a very interesting situation for him. He had the breakout rookie season. Then he had a season that people saw as a major regression, but actually statistically was not. Well, it would a little bit. In touchdowns, there was. But I believe he had more total receptions.

In his second season. He had more receptions, but he had about 200 yards less. Right. So there were some conflicting numbers there that said, what is he actually going to be in season three? And he was a machine. He was an absolute monster, a machine. They're bringing Travis Benjamin this year, Melvin Gordon's second season. Ken wasn't hunt back as offensive coordinator, Antonio Gates, returns. That is the team context for Keenan Allen's season. Should we be drafting him in PPR leagues?

With the expectation he will put up 100 plus catches. Yes, absolutely. I am all aboard the Keenan Allen ship. Everyone is welcome to join me on it. Look, in eight... Where do you have him? Do you have him as far down as 12? No, he's higher than that for me. I'm extremely high. I believe he's in my top five when you're talking about PPR. Here's why I like Keenan Allen in eight games. He's your four in PPR. I love him because...