Regress -or- Impress + Baldwin News, DaeSean Hamilton

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Hey, Foot Clan, just 18 days left until the Ultimate Draft Kit is released. And this year it's back and better than ever. 100 plus player profile videos, a brand new companion app, rankings, sleepers, breakouts, busts, everything you know and love. And more. Ultimate DraftKit.com. Hey, this is Deshawn Hamilton. You're listening to the Fantasy Footballers podcast.

to the fantasy footballers podcast. Coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The fantasy footballers back again. Mike is here. Yep. Jason present. Barely. I'm Andy Holloway. Jason and I are still reeling. Great night.

Great night of television to be had by all. That is literally why I said I am barely here. We're recording this show late afternoon on Monday, May 13th. The show is being released Tuesday, May 14th. So we are just, we're mere hours off of the, what, the second to last episode of Game of Thrones. No spoilers. No. No. Other than it was the worst episode of all time. Wait, you worry about spoilers?

I do. You can't. You can't go on Twitter. You can't watch the news. I get it. I mean, this is just, if you watch, here's the thing. Who is a Game of Thrones watcher? It's like, I'm going to wait until Tuesday. That's a really good. Ooh, it's the second or last episode of all time. I'll tell you who. Firefighters? Well, that's better. That's a strong point. I was going to say smart people this week. If you want to have a good Monday. I know, Jason and I are still dealing with, you know, we were.

Hashtag team Danny, so you know what it's like. Welcome into the show today. We've got regress or impressed. We're going to look at some players last year that we may have different opinions on coming into 2019, whether they're going to continue what they did last year in putting up some impressive fantasy football performances, whether we expect them to regress. Regression is a big piece of predicting bust candidates for the coming year.

Is that fair? Yeah, totally fair because when you have impressed, you move up the draft boards and you got to take a look. Was this just a player emerging in the NFL? Was this a player truly having a breakout? Or did they just have some kind of fluky statistical outlier season that was great while it lasted? But you need to avoid them now. And one of the players that impressed at the...

Very end of the season, Deshaun Hamilton, wide receiver for the Denver Broncos, has a great opportunity this season. No Demerius Thomas. We're covering Emmanuel Sanders. He'll be asked again to step up with Cortland Sutton and perform. He's joining us on the show later today. You'll hear that interview. And so that'll be fun to talk about Deshaun and talk to Deshaun. Yes. All right, quick question of the day. How much do you take into account divisional?

defenses when you value a player. Not much, but I take it into account fully. And what I mean by that is, like, I look at strength of schedule whenever I'm statting out the team. I look at the history of a player. And in my opinion, I think that the divisional matchups, they're just baked into those. I mean, obviously, if a player's changing teams, if they, if they were traded or signed a free agency, then their history doesn't quite have the same, you know, I might factor that in a little bit more, but I don't ever.

With the very few exceptions, I don't ever just go, well, you know, they're in a tough division, so I'm going to skew it. Out of the whole pie. How much of the pie, Jason, do you think of the divisional matchups? For instance, a few years ago, NFC West had some Seattle, Arizona, tough defenses year in and year out. AFC West had Denver, you know, at the peak of Von Miller era shut down, you know.

the secondary in Los Angeles, then with San Diego. Yeah, I mean, one percent. Of the pie? Yeah, because, I mean, I guess you could give it three or four percent if you're taking into account that it is baked into, like I said, you know, their schedule, their strength of schedule, and their history as a player. Is there a division right now where you look at it and go, holy crap, those are three monster defenses that I wish I could avoid? No.

Because think about the best, like, who are the best defenses? Jacksonville. They're up there as one of those, oh, you want to avoid them. Jacksonville and Houston in that division. Yeah, I mean, Houston's, yeah. Houston's been okay, but they haven't been dominant like they were a couple years ago. That's fair. That was to your point of when the NFC West was crushing. I mean, you had three really strong defenses. Are there any defenses that, you know, their defenses have been built up over the course of like seven and a half seasons only to horribly let you down at the end?

of the like last season. All right. Is this an Arizona Cardinals reference? Um, oh, oh, right into that one. Oh, I fell right into that. If they had a mask, I would be like made out of iron or steel and be a really big chair. I thought I was going to have to explain it to you, Jason. I feel worse now than I did. Oh, that team was built on a really solid foundation.

People who can read between the lines knew exactly where it was going were not disappointed in the slightest at the outcome. How about the Vikings and Bears? I mean, but that's fair. But then the Vikings struggled last year. I was going to say, and then half, the other half, the Packers and Lions aren't scaring anybody. Look, we've, we've all made it through our initial 2019 projections, rankings, statistics. Congratulations, Jason. In fact, thank you. As far as I know, they'll be up on the website either. They are right now when you're listening to this.

or they will be in a day or two. And then obviously the full projections and all of the sleepers breakouts, bust, that stuff's in the ultimate draft kit. But we've made our way through, and I can't say that there was a situation when I was looking at that schedule for a certain team and said, oh, no, because they have to face, you know, this team four times. Right. Or teams. Yeah, teams, four times. We got it. You can find us on YouTube. YouTube.com slash the fantasy.

Footballers, see Mike wave at the camera. Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers. Our fantasy community is join thefoot.com with over 5,000 patrons supporting the show, getting extra stuff like a footcast, a bonus episode each and every week. And like if you're new to the show, we're a five day a week show starting in August. We go up from two a week to three a week in July.

But you can get three a week right now at Jointhefoot.com. We're also ad free on Stitcher Premium. You can subscribe and listen for free on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and we appreciate all of your support. Let's get into the news. News and notes from Around the League, presented by Sleeper. So big news. Doug Baldwin is announcing his retirement after eight NFL seasons. I believe one of the tweets he let go said his watch is over. Yes.

His watch is over. Doug Baldwin, how will you remember Doug Baldwin? Fondley. I will remember him as a great NFL wide receiver who had a late breakout, but stuck. You know, he's really the model of, you know, for people that are like, ah, this player's been around for a couple of years and hasn't done anything. We know what he is. And then he breaks out and actually was.

That was the new norm. I think of Robert Woods for me. You know, he was around for several years with another team. It was like, eh, it's all right. There's nothing special. I think, you know, Robert Woods, like Doug Baldwin, this is the new norm. How much of that has to do with the fact he got the luck of the draw? Got paired up with Russell Wilson, you know, Robert Woods. About the same amount. His new normal is Jared Goff. I was going to say about the same amount as Robert Woods. Well, to Doug Baldwin's credit, undrafted.

I mean, this, to move from that to a very lucrative career, a very successful career became a household name in the fantasy football community, that's how I will remember him. He is a man who broke out of the impossibility of being an undrafted wide receiver into setting himself up for life. Yeah, I said he always defied expectations and he was always open.

on the field. Great route runner. What was crazy for, I mean, you bring up the Russell Wilson thing is Doug Baldwin was always so close. Like he would show up in waiver reports because he would flash every now and now and again. You're like, I like this Doug Baldwin guy, but it wasn't until that year with Russell Wilson where he was like averaging two touchdowns a game over the second half of the season. It's funny because for fantasy owners, those players, when they do emerge late,

We don't believe it. We don't buy it. We just wait for the shoe to drop. So Baldwin was one of those guys where he never dropped. He was just great. Now, I tweeted a shout out. Great hands when it comes to shoes. Yes. Sure, Mike. Shout out to Doug Baldwin. You're talking about the shoe dropping. No, no, no. Your career arc going the same way of Danny's. Shout out. Somebody posted the immediate reply to me giving.

a thank you tweet to Doug Baldwin for his career. I said shout out to Doug Baldwin, one of the best. Immediately, the first reply. Shout out to him not revealing his injury until three days after my draft crippling my team for several weeks. So we're living in a fantasy football world. In fairness to him, he announced pretty early here. They drafted, I guess. No, no. He's talking about last year. He's talking about last year. All right. All right. The Patriots have signed.

Ben Watson to a one-year $3 million contract. Does this, they already have Austin Safarian Jenkins, who has been a little bit injury prone. Ben Watson joins on a one-year deal with the absence of Rob Grunkowski. I guess he thinks he's still got something left in the tank. Do we care?

The only reason that I care is because I would have had Austin Sifarian Jenkins as a sleeper candidate, someone that you could buy cheap and just hope. Maybe he gets in now. If he's split in time, I don't think either one of them could be valuable. I tend to agree. Now, does this close the door on some of those rumors about Grankowski returning late in the season? No. I don't think it closes the door. If you are in a Dynasty League, for example.

Would you release Rob Grancowski? Honestly, would you release him to the free age of pool? It's always going to be a matter of who am I releasing him for? I don't know. Let's say Dan Arnold. Oh, the postman? Okay. I would rather have Gronkowski than Dan Arnold. Yeah, so would I. I think I think Gronkowski has a... I'd rather just hope a prey comes back. Yes, he has a higher...

chance of having fantasy relevant production ahead. Than the man who's not retired. Then the man who's not retired. Great. Oh, I'm sorry, Dan. All right. The Patriots signed wide receiver Don Trell Inman, formerly of the Colts to a one-year deal. I spoke repeatedly how Inman was the second best receiver on that Colts roster from the time they picked him up last year.

What does this mean for the Patriots offense that already has too many wide receivers? I think it means you're going to have to wait as a fantasy owner for the filtering process to happen. How is Demarius's injury? What guys make it through camp? Do Maurice Harris, who flashes in camp? Yeah, I mean, I can't wait for the 53 roster cut down day for New England. We could all pick three completely different wide receivers to stat as the primary, secondary, and third option.