Fantasy Football - NFC South Breakdown + Stinky Treasures - Podcast for 7/19

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Hi, welcome in. Oh, it's Saturday. Oh, room, broom. Hop on that lawnmower, Jason. Did we get you in on the idea, Jay, the riding mower? I still live in Arizona. No. No way. You know how hot that lawnmower is? My skin is seared. No, no, no, no, no. Inclosed with air conditioning. Oh, absolutely. I'm in. Yeah. It's like the, uh, like the Pope Mobile. Right. Like I'll go, I'll go mow the grass of like the Cardinals stadium. He's just being, he's just being displayed. No, I know. But I'm saying like, put a put some blades on the bottom of that thing. I haven't looked at a picture of the Popemobile in a while. It's got to have blades. Um, yeah, it's also, it's multifunctional. No, is that like, is it just glass though up top?

I think it's like a fish bowl. Oh, saran wrap. I don't know. No idea. When's the last time the Popemobile went out for a ride? I don't know. It's just fun. It's a fun word to say. Happy Saturday, everybody. It's the fantasy footballers podcast back with you. NFC South breakdown episode. So enjoy your weekend shores with us. We're excited to talk about this division. There are there are questions. There are hopefully some answers on today's episode in terms of players that we're. into as we look at all the changes and you know it's it's going to be interesting in Atlanta in particular with a quarterback change and now I'm getting bombarded with Popemobile pictures I've moved on to the booger mobile and just oh I forgot about that oh man that what a tragedy the booger mobile blocking everybody's view oh ESPN had booger on there and they were like we got to get this guy out of here and they're like what do we do uh put them on this uh

contraption on the sideline that blocks all the the big paying customers the older i get the more i realize how dumb people are in every single field right there are a lot like like production like like like product like like like i watched the MLB i saw a brief clip of the MLB home run derby and somebody there thought that what we wanted to see was a whole lot of the pitchers which are like the bat the coaches that are in the in the derby in the derby in the derby shot we got like a huge view of the net and their arms and then and a little view of the the batter and then like what the mb the NBA on

ESPN with the graphics that look like they came from 1994 where instead of showing me the replay. You are burning Sony bridges for us right now. You show me a claymation animation of the replay where I want to watch the replay. These opinions are only shared by Andrew Holloway. Right. They are his own. You brought up the Bougar Mobile. That was yes. It was great. What an idea. Bring it back. Oh my goodness. All right. It's so big. And they're like, uh, just slap a television. On the back of it? So the fans won't miss anything. Bugger flying up and down the sidelines. Good times. Well, good. Good. Thank you for joining us. If you want to watch this show, you can do so on YouTube. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Make sure you subscribe and click the bell. That'll let you know when Mike's going live. Sunday live coming soon. Oh, yeah, it is. With the NFL season. We've got the ability to follow us over on Spotify and Apple.

Drop us a five-star review over there. If you've got a couple extra minutes this weekend, that would be awesome. That would help the show out. This fine independent podcast, you can make sure Al Borland over there keeps getting a paycheck. And Smirky, Smirkerson. Yeah, Papa Josh. We appreciate you. Papa Josh is on a big road trip this week. Took the week off to go on a big, big road trip. A virtual road trip. Virtual road trip. I'll be back next week. Who knows where Josh is? You know, the problem is when he needs time off, I'm not giving it. That's all I'm saying. Video game machine. That's, that's where he's. His video game machine? Well, are you 80,000 years old? Well, sometimes. You're Nintendo's. What are you doing? I don't know if he's playing on a PC, but no one's ever called him. Just pick one. Burn him down, Mike. All right. Let's move on. Your video game machine. Oh, man. Goodness. You know what, Mike. What? I hate myself. Thank you. You did it.

You did it. All right. Happy Saturday. Quick reminder, all of you, the ultimate draft kit. That's a fun tool to, you know, you can pull that open this weekend and start looking at all of our rankings for 2025, all of our sleepers breakouts, busting values. Take a look at the draft analyzer, which you can break down mock drafts as well. You can load those into the draft analyzer. And that's all available at ultimate draft kit.com. Yeah. And guess what had to be changed? Some projections. Because it's lawyer time. Guess who's back? It's lawyer time. News and notes from around the league. Well, we barely missed this news on our last episode of the show. But here we go. Rashi Rice. We didn't know.

if his legal troubles, his legal situation was going to be taken care of ahead of the 2025 season or if we'd be waiting for another year before a potential suspension. However, news came in early on Thursday. A Dallas County judge has sentenced Rashi Rice to five years probation and 30 days of jail time that can be served anytime during the five years. of probation. That's nice. All stemming from his role in a multi-car crash in Dallas during the 2024 offseason. That means that it is highly likely, although not official as of this recording, that he will serve his suspension in 2025 and that that suspension from everything that, you know, my initial reaction to it, I took four games away from Rashi Rice, everything I'm seeing right now from, you know, more well-trained legal experts and CBA experts and Jason even ran it through.

the AI overlords looking at the CBA and had a deep dive. The precedent set, but it looks like four games is right in that sweet spot of what we can expect. It could be more. I mean, the league has to look at, they don't just look at what the courts determine when they determine their punishments. They also look at extenuating circumstances, mitigating circumstances, and the actual events that transpired, you know, Rashi Rice fled the scene of an accident, caused an accident, was charged with assault. Doesn't matter what he pleads down to if the league determines that they want to hit him harder. That could happen. Could be an appeal. Yada, yada, yada. It seems like it would be a minimum of two games, a maximum of six games is the broadest strokes. That seems like the range. And then whatever it comes out as when it comes out, it could be challenged. And, you know, if it comes out as six games, it could end up being four games once the appeal process has gone through.

Rice decides to do that. But the good news is this will all, this should all happen in time before most drafts. Like by the time we get to draft season, we should know. Rashi Rice is missing the first X games. Yeah. Shout out to the best ball bros out there who overdrafted Rice said. Yeah. You know, the worst part of this, I mean, not the worst part. Let's be honest. Yeah. The worst part is what happened to the pretty bad part. The worst part happened to like the people in the incident. But the second worst part. is that for the first time in the whole dang off season, I draft Rashi Rice and a mock draft last year, like a show ago. And you guys are all like, Kyle's going, finally you're on board. The Fantasy Reaper. Well, I'm not on board anymore. Let me put it that way. And this is going to throw into flux, Travis Kelsey. Patrick Mahomes. Any hopes of like a real resurgent Patrick Mahomes year?

I'm not excited about that potential right now. Xavier Worthy's draft spot is going to change. Hollywood Brown's total targets. Our projections for the Chiefs have been completely renovated. Yeah, when I watched the Chiefs last year, especially take the first like six games, the first three with Rice, the next three without him, and you saw the same area of the field that Travis Kelsey's operating. Kelsey got off to a really slow start last year. They are vying for those same type of targets. So I think the biggest beneficiary here, is Travis Kelsey. I expect him to get off to a strong start this season while Rushie Rice misses games. Yeah, which makes sense too with just an older player. The late season or late career, Larry Fitzgerald and Heinz Ward, they had such stronger, you know, front halves of the season. But now you have to think about, you know, you take the shot on Rashi Rice in a draft and we'll get the amount of game suspended. But this is not an IR eligible player. Correct. This is now going to be a player that let's say it's six.

Oh, man. If it's six games, you're holding Rashi Rice on your bench for six games. I don't think so. He was really, really good last year, but I want to stress, it was three games, and it was three games where you had Pacheco injured, no Hollywood Brown, or Hollywood Brown, not Brown, and it was a little different, right? Like Xavier Worthy was a brand new rookie who had barely had any snaps. Put it this way. Before this news, when there was an assumption that he would be healthy and play the entire season, there was plenty of debate on whether he was a decent draft pick or not. So it's not like this is Justin Jefferson missing four games or six games. You're going to have to hold on to someone and take up a bench spot and whatever draft capital to spend on him. You know, he's dropping down to the fourth now. Will he go later? Will he be six? I don't know what it is yet. But it's going to be a very risky pick. And you better believe you're right if you take him that he's going to be a superstar.

Got to send somebody to law school here at the company. Seriously. Can't be one of the deucers. They'll never pass the bar. I don't think we need them to pass the bar, though. Oh, really? Oh, are they just auditing classes? Yeah, they just take some courses. Be cheaper for us. If they pass the bar, they're leaving the dust, then they're going to go be the lawyers. That's true. We don't pay them anything. They could go under the bar. Yeah, that's true. Especially Matt. Jordan Addison, guess what? Oh, goodness. Pled guilty. to a lesser included vehicular offense we are laughing it we're children that i mean the technical term is this what you'd like no there's i think is this technical or is this slang this is this is technical okay it's wet reckless it's he

He pleaded guilty on a wet reckless charge. We find you guilty of wet reckless. I'm seeing the official. Guilty as charge. I'm seeing it as wet and reckless. Whoa. I don't know which one's worse. That one's worse. Wet and reckless. Wet and reckless. Your honor. Your honor. Often shortened to wet reckless is a type of plea bargain where a prosecutor in Arizona agrees to, or in whatever state. agrees to reduce a misdemeanor driving other influence to a ridiculous name. Jordan Addison is wet and reckless. We should not be laughing. No, no, no, no. This is a serious offense. Really bad. Serious and reckless. And then we got to give names out like this and it's just. Really throws us off. It is because it's objectively funny. Yeah. So look, he's going the TLDR. Two to three games. Two to three games, Jordan Addison is likely to miss as a suspension.

for being wet and reckless. And if it was reviewing it. So, come on, are we done with that? I mean, yeah, I could go all day. Oh, I am so let's just move on. I don't want to, I don't want to make light at something that is a very bad decision. Okay, how about this? We've got Jefferson nickname jet jet and reckless. Reckless is Addison. That's a combo. Jet and reckless. Jet and reckless? Mike is not in because I don't want to say the other one. Okay. The Chargers officially placed Najee Harris on the NFI, the non-football injury list to begin training camp. Still waiting for that photo. I really want to see. You want to see his eye. I want to see his eye. Yeah. I think we all do. Yeah. I mean, there's no jokes here. I want to know that he's okay. Yeah. Exactly, Mike. Trey Harris has now agreed to terms. We'll sign his rookie contract. They're flowing in. All the second rounders are going to start signing now.

And in conjunction with Trey Harris, rookie wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers, Mike Williams officially retired from the NFL after eight seasons. He's only 30 years old. Was the seventh overall pick in 2017. I mean, it's time. I guess the injuries are just piling up for Mike Williams. He, he, no player jumped higher and landed harder than Mike Williams throughout his entire career. So many like sports center style catches. from mike williams but he just couldn't stay healthy he's a special guy there's not a lot of six three plus two hundred and ten pound wide receivers out there and so i don't know where they're gonna find a six three two hundred and ten pound receiver to replace him oh wait they just signed trey harrison yeah baby uh jason is uh the highest in the in the entire office on trey harris having him in the world he's at fifty nine

in your wide receiver rankings right now. Very bullish, obviously. It could be Keenan Allen coming back to Los Angeles, too. There's some rumors about Keenan coming home. That would be fun. That would help. If Keenan came, though, that would be really hard, I think, more on Lad. That would be bad for Lad. Bad for Lad. Make me sad. Yeah. That's pretty bad. It's got a Saturday vibe here, guys. The. It like, look at that shirt Al's wearing. That's a Saturday shirt right there. Back to the main camp. Jason's on my Henley. Jason's going. A couple of these leisure. Yeah. I'm relaxing. I'll just say about the the Chargers news because everything else is speculation, but as where as we stand right now, Quentin Johnston does need to be paid attention to. Yeah. And that's our Quentin guy over there. The best part of Keenan Allen signing to the charges should that happen is I could never do that again.

No, Mike drafted him in the last mock draft and then reminded us again today. If you want to associate Quentin with a person here at the show, Mike's volunteer. That's someone's got to do it. If I. He was on pace for nine touchdowns last year. 9.1. Who was? Quentin Johnson. Over 100 targets, nine touchdowns. You know. It was very... Is that... So he missed some games, you're saying? Yes, he did. It was very sporadic, but the totality of the season was better than you remember. It would have been funny if he played a full 17 and you said he's on pace for what he got. That's what I wasn't sure. I didn't remember a missing time. If he played a full 17 and I said he was on pace for 9.1, that would be super weird. He was at a 23.5% targets per route run, which is very strong. I think you should be a my guy, Mike.

That's what I'm hearing. I'll put him on the board for you. He should be ignored. But I still don't think he is very good. What's the in between of ignored and paid attention to? Glantnell Mooney. Okay. You went with a name? You went with a person? Yeah. All right. Anthony Richardson. is believed to have been recovered and starting to throw again. Okay. Dude, that's all. Every quarterback I draft, I want them to be able to throw. Goodness gracious. Jason is just, I'm here for long reason today. He unbuttoned the shirt, Mike. The point, don't make me take it off. The point of this blurb was we were on reports of we didn't know if Richardson was going to be ready for training camp. And if Richardson's not there to start training camp, that is a huge, uh, head start for Daniel Jones. Albert Breer believes.

Stefan Diggs is trending towards playing in week one. This is... That's very aggressive. That's also very important. Yes. People need to understand how bad the rest of the depth chart is because Stefan Diggs can soak up targets. If you believe in Drake May in any capacity, you have to believe in Stefan Diggs in some capacity. That's my math equation in New England. It doesn't mean he's a super high draft pick. It just means he's kind of a sneaky draft pick. I don't disagree. It's just the injury, like the historical injury of the ACL. Research is it's a nine to 12 month recovery to return to a game. The end of August will be nine months. That's what I mean. It would be pretty aggressive. It would. It's not impossible. We saw him running routes. A while ago. Like two months ago. And he looked just like.

Keshan Booty, who was running right next to him, I will be currently surprised. I think that's very good. Kayshan Booty is a very young athletic wide receiver. And so to be at that stage, I'm a, like I think right now, Stefan Diggs is a clear value in the draft. They also have a good opening schedule. We talked about that when we covered their division, but you're talking Raiders. Favor by three in week one, aren't they? They're playing the Raiders. So look, Diggs was in our, I think, values list. We pulled them when we got conflicting reports of his availability. But he's right on that edge. You know, he's not the same Stefan Diggs. You can't put that into your, like a top 10 type of wide receiver. But he might not be drafted or very close to not drafted in a lot of leagues. And big news. Get paid. T.J. Watt has become the highest non-paid quarterback in NFL history. It's the second time that's happened for him.

three year, $123 million extension, $108 million guaranteed. I like to do what. I like to imagine that draft year, like the first round is almost over and the Steelers like, who, who's, who you want to take? I just take JJ's brother. I mean, T.J. Watt. And then you're like, oh, hey, look, the other watt is awesome. Yeah, the, the, you know, the questions around him was like, are you, he's 30 and. Is he worth $108 million? Yeah, this is. I mean, he, he kind of took a little step back last year. Did he? Yeah, I mean, it's a saxman from 19 to 11. I mean, that's not like 11's great. But it's just giving that much money to it. But he was 13, 14, 15, 22, 19. And then it is, it's what you got to do. I mean, they're all in. So it's what he needed. And they gave it to him. And that's it for news. So we'll take a break and we'll jump into our divisional breakdown. Let's get divisional.

Into the NFC, NFC South we go. Yes. And we will talk through Tampa Bay in Atlanta and Carolina, New Orleans, look at the players, rookies, coaching changes, how their offenses, defenses have changed, offensive lines. And we'll give our take on how we think this division will play out, which I think, again, this is one where you could definitely see it going some different ways. And we'll start with. We'll start with Tampa Bay. I mean, last year was the second year in a row that the NFC South title was not decided until the literal final week of the season. And it went to Tampa Bay, 10 and 7. Now, they were, you know, very good for fantasy. Like the Baker story, Mike Evans, Godwin-Wellie was healthy. McMillan at times as a spot start. Kate Otten at times. And then Bucky Irving, like there were lots of fantasy storylines in Tampa Bay.

You know, you can go watch our Halloween show and see Jason dressed up as Laser Mayfield himself. This was a very fun. Go ahead. Busted. Oh, well, that's nothing. I gave you the chance, Jay. Laser. And now you're busted. What is happening? He is. What did you drink with lunch? Seriously. I had an amino energy drink and I'm feeling it. I've got so much energy. Look, they were 10 and 7, but they were only 3 and 5 and 1 score games. So they weren't one of those teams that, like, kind of out kicked what it looked like they were supposed to do. They have hit the over on their Vegas win total in five of the last six years. And last year, it was 7.5. This year is 9.5. Okay. They have the 10th easiest strength of schedule, according to our friend of the show, Warren Sharp, and his breakdown of the season. They were number 4 in points per game, number 3 in yards per game. They were, I mean, Baker was amazing.

They had a top five quarterback. They had a top 15 running back in Bucky with another top 24 in Mr. Rashad White. Rashad White made it into the top 24? They had a top 12 wide receiver. They had a top 12 tight end. And only the 2012 Patriots can match those numbers. Yeah, Rashad White kind of. He did. Yeah, he feels like he didn't exist, but he did a little bit. And they're the first team in NFL history to complete 70 plus percent of their passes, average five plus yards per catch. This was an amazing, amazing offense. And that's a big win total, nine and a half for them going into this year. Todd Bowles, I believe he got an extension this offseason. And it's going to be interesting. They added a very highly touted first round rookie wide receiver to the mix. And then they paid Chris Godwin this offseason. So in my opinion, they're one of the more loaded offenses in football. Yes.

You know, when you talk about the possible outcomes of the season, biggest question maybe being, can Baker work his magic again with a third offensive coordinator in the last three years? I mean, the buccaneers are the example of why hiring a defensive head coach can be difficult. Yeah. Because you have a great, we all love Todd Bowles. We all think he's a really good head coach. He had a tough time in New York because it's the Jets. That's why. But offensive coordinator, it was Dan Canales. Then it was Liam Cohen. And now... The Grizzler. It's Josh. Grizzard. Grizzard. We saw allegedly people are saying it Grizzard, but no. No, thank you. No, thank you. We deny your pronunciation. Yeah, we have a show to run here. And how you were born, what you're named, really irrelevant to us. This team adding Igbuka is... It's absurd.

I don't know if I think with the Godwin contract, it was even more. I don't mean absurd in like, I can't believe. I'm like, as in like this, this, this trio of wide receivers. Yeah. Of if I, I, will Egbuka be a week one starter? It might take some time. I know McMillan had, you know, his end of season run, but ceiling wise, he's, McMillan is not Egbuka. And if you're seriously running out. those three guys of Evans Godman-Ebuka, it will be very, very difficult to stop any sort of passing attack. So Baker, let's start there with, you know, you can see all the great things about how the offense performed. You've got to change at OC, but you have all these weapons. He had eight finishes inside the top five at the position. He was amazing for fantasy players. Yeah, he was, 4,540. So then it's like,

You know, I've said it. I've put it on record before. I don't like looking at all of his history in averages to determine Baker now in Tampa Bay because I think he's, he is leveled up several levels and it's just different situations, different weapons. But obviously putting up, what was the touchdown total? 40. Yeah, putting up, putting up 40 is just, you know, take Baker out of the equation. Just look at averages. 41. 41 passing touchdowns? Yeah. Oh, my goodness. I apologize. 41. Oh, then I think you can get to 40. Okay. No. But I mean, it was 28 the year before in Tampa. Which was his career high before 40. It was his career high. I know what you're saying. But I think, I think mid 30s is very, very like I bet on it. Mid 30 touchdown. Yes. Okay. I bet on 35. Because I, because he's early 30s age wise. I, I.

I need a button to hit. I don't even know what button they hit. So here's the thing. You can say, okay, I don't, I don't buy into the early Baker career stuff because he had different wide receivers, different poorly run organizations. That stuff is true. However, you know, he's also, he played 89 games before this last year for a number of different teams and offenses and offensive coordinators. And through that time, his touchdown rate was 4.6%, which is basically just. Don't just take his history. Take the history of all quarterbacks. That's basically what the NFL does. It's a very normal rate. Will he be above 4.6? Yeah, probably. I mean, he was 4.9% the previous year with, you know, Evans and Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But he jumped to 7.2% last year. And it is not uncommon for this to happen for quarterbacks throughout a career.

to have a year with an outlier touchdown percentage. This is like the easiest regression to spot coming. And so I, you know, mid-30s, I'm fine with that. I think he can- 7.2 is extreme for sure. Yes. And 4.9 was a bit low for, I mean, he's had 5.6, 5.3. The truth of the matter is, I think what I'm pushing back against a little bit, and I'm doing this with a lot of these regression candidates, is Baker Mayfield, this was the storyline of last off-season. We did this already. We did it. We did the Baker-Mayfield regression storyline all off-season. Different offensive coordinator. He was over 4,000 yards, and he never done that before. And we got the other side of the coin, is all I'm saying. And so I think it's very reasonable. Like, I don't see anything on this offense. Great offensive line. Great running game. Great passing game. Amazing weapons. Depth when weapons go down. Baker lost weapons last year and still put up those numbers, right? Godwin was gone in the middle of the season. So.

Okay, so I think that Baker, you know, I don't think he finishes a quarterback three again. No. But I don't think he finishes a 10. I think he finishes 10 or lower personally. And part of that is because we know the touchdowns will come down. He's not throwing 40 touchdowns this year. So take away five of them. That's still a lot of touchdowns. If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he'll be among the league leaders. But that's a big drop in fantasy points. But then it's not just that. It's his rushing. I mean, he had 378 rushing yards almost like double his career high. His career high before that was 165, and it's not like the attempts changed. He had a year with 54 rushing attempts. He had a year, the year prior, with 62 rushing attempts, more than he had this last year, but somehow he went from 163 rushing yards to 378. He did not get more athletic. He had a bunch of big runs. It was great, awesome. It was really fun. But it just feels like if I had to say, well, who is Baker? How does he run?