Fantasy Football - NFC South Breakdown + Stinky Treasures - Podcast for 7/19

What can he do on the ground? I'm definitely going to bet with what he's done throughout his career than last year's... Well, the year before he was a quarterback 10 with all the lower numbers. Right. So, I mean, I think that's why I have him between 10 and 3. I think around 10 is very fair. If he plays 17 games, he should be a quarterback 1. But I, you know, right now he's being drafted. Quarterback 7. Yeah. It's perfect. Yeah. I think it's a... I think it's an okay fair shot. It's just the where I would push on the regression is we, I won't argue that has Baker seemingly really improved or you could even just actually he's returning the promise of what he was, which was the number one overall pick. And then he and then he overcame the circumstances. So we're seeing the real Baker. But we see Hall of Fame quarterbacks have these types of seasons where they're throwing up in the.

you know, the seven percentile per attempt for touchdown rate. And then they drop at least a full percentage. And these are guys who will go right into the Hall of Fame. The best thing we can do, though, is approach it from the perspective on all these quarterbacks of what are your highest odds of getting success at the position? Yes. Because there's variance for everybody. But not just highest odds of general success, but you have to add with that highest. outcome of success? Like, can they be a league winner? Not just can they beat quarterbacks, you know? He was in a inconsistency, 64% of the time above 17 points per game. Week in and week out, he was a valuable fantasy player. And I do believe that's what he will be again this year. Okay. But look, it's what that regression looks like, touchdown wise. All we've said is what they've added this offseason. Yeah. You're taking a Baker Mayfield that didn't have a Bucca or Godwin.

Would you rather have Baker in the 6th or Jordan Love in the 9th? I'll take Baker. Yeah, I feel very, very safe with Baker. I think you've shown us the last two years. And great schedule, great offensive line. So I feel very safe with Baker in the 6th. I think it's a perfect price, QB7, and I'm not intimidated by offensive coordinator changes. Yeah, I mean, that is normal for Baker. We like Bucky, but Bucky is the RB8 off the board right now. I feel like we could get stuck in Tampa Bay arguments for the rest of the show because, you know, I'm a big Bucky fan. I think we're all fans. He is, his draft price is a little scary. Not that we don't have him ranked very close. Like a quick look. It seems like I have him at nine, Andy is at nine, Jason's at 11. So we're all just as a group, a little bit behind consensus.

He is. He's in a tier right now on our UDK where he shares the tier with Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, and Jonathan Taylor. It feels right. But he's the highest, most expensive. Yeah. Which is why it becomes a challenge for all of us to draft him. That's a perfect snapshot of his situation. Yeah. Clip that. There you go. That's good work. Rashad White pretty much being ignored in drafts, 10th round pick. You shouldn't. Yeah, in double digit rounds. I mean. Rashad White is not their future. He's probably going to be gone after this year. It's going to feel so gross to draft him. But this is a guy who is absolutely involved, had over 200 opportunities last year. We brought it up. He was the running back 24. He's not great, but he is. He's the kind of player. There's a dude in our league that just drafts the nastiest dudes in the late rounds and they always provide value. And Rashad White fits right in there. Yeah. How do you see the wide receiver room panning out, Jason, with Mike Evans.

Right now a late third, Godwin in the sixth. Egbuka and McMillan share an 11th round. You've got Kate Otten who did have a really necessary portion of the year. He's only a Mr. Necessary, though. So, but how do you see the wide outs? Yeah, I mean, I... Chris Godwin was essentially the alpha before he went down to injury, but I've still got Mike Evans clearly ahead. I want more information on Chris Godwin coming back. Ironically, my target share for both of those guys is identical. For who? For Evans and Godwin. Okay. But the valuable targets, if they're both going to get 130 targets, they're going to be very different for Chris Godwin than for Mike Evans. I'd rather have the double digit touchdown upside of Evans, the downfield, you know, big explosive plays. We have Godwin.

He's been hurt before, and his return from injury was really depressing. But then I feel like we're getting that scare washed by the contract this offseason. And his ADP. His ADP is the risk is already in there. It's six round. In the sixth round. I struggle. Ooh, six rounds. So who you take him? Baker or Godwin? I mean, I don't know. It's a trick question. Jameson Williams is in the sixth. Yeah, that is. I personally struggle with the Evans versus Godwin because it was not a. they're going back and forth in those, you know, when Chris Godwin was doing what he was doing at the beginning of the year, the first seven weeks, Chris Godwin had put up, you know, he's averaging nine targets, so seven receptions and 82 yards per week. That is what Chris Godwin was averaging in that exact same time period. I'll cut one game out because Mike Evans got hurt also, you know, in week seven, but he was averaging four for 51. Like this was not a,

We're 1A, 1B. It was the Chris Godwin show. But if you just think about it, I mean, all the years that Godwin's been a part of Tampa Bay, Mike Evans. Wide receiver 8, 12, 10, 8. Sure. It just doesn't matter how it happens. But it's a, it's a very large gap. For a small time period of their. No, no, no. They're their ADP. Oh, yeah, yeah. I thought you were saying a large gap between their production when they were playing together. Both, both of those things. But he, Mike, if you had to bet. your house and everything you save for your children's future college on Mike Evans getting a thousand yards or not getting a thousand yards this season of course I'll take the thousand yards but is that like which the he he barely surpassed they're making me talk bad about Mike Evans right now and I don't appreciate that my my point is

You shouldn't. He's been great. This team manufactured him the thousand yards to keep that street going. If you remember that at the end of the season. The final couple weeks they did. He missed a handful of games and it seemed like he was not going to be able to get there. And they're like, I don't think I'm drafting Godwin. Yeah. Are you? I don't think I'm taking him in the six round. I'm fine with Evans. But you've got Igbuka that represents a huge portion of the future. And Godwin could start really slow. and maybe not have, I mean, Liam Cohen's not there. Liam Cohen was the difference between Canales and Liam Cohen was that magic beginning for Godwin. So I don't know. That is very, makes me nervous. And we have, like his particular injury, we have seen players recently poor, like performing poorly right when they came back from it. And we've seen players who get that, that same injury in there just fine. So it's, do you care more about your family or Mike Evans? Oh, Mike Evans. Yeah.

Makes sense. They start against Atlanta in Atlanta and their favorite in week one. And then at Houston, then the Jets, then Philadelphia. So it should be an interesting re-roll of this offense again. And the offensive line ranked sixth. They are going to be without Tristan Worf's for a little while, right? They are. So that's worth mentioning Atlanta. Yeah, worth mentioning. I can't believe you let that one go. The way that this, this podcast is going on a Saturday. Jason is controlling the vibe of this podcast very carefully. Buttons, if he could unbutton anymore, he would. You're lucky I didn't wear a full button up shirt today. I mean, he would be, I'm surprised he doesn't grab scissors and start cutting that thing off. Atlanta was eight and nine. We're going to move on to Atlanta. They were seven and six and one score games. They have not had a 500 or better season since 2017. And yet.

they are projected for seven and a half games so yeah they're not projected for i mean last year they were projected for nine and a half and the kirk cousins experiment well that that was a bad experiment it didn't work uh his mobility after the injury then he i mean he had the achilles recovery but then he had a shoulder injury and he played even worse after that in fact he started much better there were six and three to start the year then he collapsed was throwing interceptions all over the place, passing yards went down, it looked like you couldn't throw it all. And there have been some resurgent rumors, by the way, of cousins to Cleveland yet again. Oh my gosh. Which was my original prediction. It was. But I had all been giving up on it because they drafted 16 quarterbacks in the draft. But, you know, Michael Pennix Jr. took over. They averaged double the points per game when he was under center over the last three weeks. They didn't win those games. They were one and two.

And as a reminder, because I know a lot, you know, we're going to talk about those three games with how it related to Drake London and Pennix and Bejohn, because that's the future. But those three games were against three of the worst defenses in the league, the Giants and the Panthers. The Washington commanders were in there. Their, you know, average. Their strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, is the fourth easiest in football. And yet just seven and a half wins in a softer division. So that is at least a little bit of a. a nod to all the doubts and questions that we're going to bring up here when talking about Atlanta, which, you know, it begins with the quarterback. This team didn't perform on offense the way they wanted to last year. Bottom third. Zach Robinson came over with a lot of fanfare from the McVeigh universe and kind of gets a slight pass with just what happened with Kirk Cousins. But, you know. Yeah, I will judge him harshly after this season.

Yeah, and you're going to have a top 10 quarterback pick. You better put a show on. Yeah, the pick was, I mean, when the pick happened of Michael Pennix, it was ridiculed everywhere. But it seems like maybe, I know we've talked about this. I mean, you can't like really fix a mistake with a mistake, but it wasn't an insurance policy that they needed quickly. They have a top 10 offensive line ranking on PFF heading into the new year. That's great for Bijon. Yeah, Bijon is, he's a player that we're not going to have to. We can't let Jason talk about Bijon anymore. We don't have to discuss at length. I mean, from week six on, he scored 17 plus fantasy points in all but one game. It was outrageous. He was everything that you hoped he could be. And he belongs at the tippy top of your drafts. If you want to take him 101, that's fine. Yeah. Totally fine. Good offensive line, peak of his career for running backs. He's a game.

script proof back. If they get down, they throw them the ball. If they're up, they run the clock out. So you love that. One of the true workhors is an A inconsistency. There's literally nothing to criticize with Bejohn. When it comes to pass catchers, it's kind of like Drake London and then what do you have? Like is Kyle Pitts even worth bringing up on a fantasy football show anymore. Darnel Mooney kind of slots in as what he is, right? Like he's He's a wide receiver too that's probably better than his draft spot. Yeah, he's in the 10th round, wide receiver 49. He'll outproduce that. Michael Pennix only completed 55% of his passes. You know, they've talked a lot about not changing him. If you've seen recent comments from the offensive staff, it's like, we like the things that make Michael Pennick special, which is taking chances. Oh, that dude airs it out. Erring it out. So that's going to come with some good and bad. Also, their defense.

is going to dictate a lot of things. They were not a great defense. So, you know, where are you from the fantasy perspective on this team? Like, is Drake London, he's drafted so highly. He's a top of the second round pick. But I haven't taken a minimo. And I don't know if you can, I mean, can you talk me into why I need to be just ultra confident in Drake London regardless of how much Michael Pinnock Jr. we've seen? Yeah, I mean, he is. The reason you should be ultra-confident is, like you said, their defense is not good. And he has no other wide receivers to really, truly compete with. Arna L. Moon is on the other side. Great. But he proved that he could be kind of an alpha wide receiver. He was the wide receiver six last year in fantasy. And that was with the old busted version of Kirk Cousins. So let's say Michael Pennix. It's pretty juiced from that Carolina game in Week 18. Sure. He had an incredible 187. 10 for 187 and 2.

For 35 points, that'll jump you up a couple of spots. Yeah, but the counter argument to that is that was one of the Michael Pinnock's games. So you're going, oh, okay. So Michael Pinnock is willing to just throw him the ball a ton. Even before that, you're on target taking that crazy game out, which is dumb to just take it, take out his best game. But without his best game, he's still on a hundred target pace. you know 1100 yards target or catch uh reception sorry 147 target you're saying he's 100 target pace you should not draft him so he's a young in his prime alpha wide receiver with no competition for targets and a bad defense like i i'm all about pretty potent Kyle pits is yards per outrun over the last four years have dropped every single year he he had 38% of his snaps in line three times his rate from 2023 he just

It's like the air's let out of the balloon at this point. It's hard to talk about. He's the oldest 24-year-old on planet Earth. He's Greg Oden. Ah, that's a good comp. That's how it feels. And like Greg Oden, he's just, he's on his way to being just a trivia question. Like one of the biggest bus in a long time. Is there any help for him this season? I mean, you just literally talked about them having nobody but Drake London. There is always hope. I mean, that's because he's 24. That's how he gets. Yeah, he's 24. He was the fourth pick in the NFL draft. He's like, I got this candy bar over here. Yeah. Let me ask you this. Is he in a contract year? I don't know. Is he? I think so. He is, unfortunately. Yeah, there you. All right. So now he's that motivation is there. This is a fool me. Couple times situation.

Which is the, I tried to figure, four times. I tried to figure out what the phrase is. It's quintuple. We'll take a break. We'll talk Panthers. Oh, by the way, they start the season against Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, and Washington. Are you surprised at their win totals at seven and a half? No. Would you have thought have been higher? No, I didn't even in this division. No, I will say that. When I first looked at the Falcons here, I saw their win total at nine and a half and I was blown away. But I was looking at last year's win total projections. Because you expected a smaller. Yes, because I expected it. They're not favored in a game until week eight. Yeah, that'll dictate some things. See, that's why you need cousins gone. I'm serious. You can't have them on that bench. Yeah. This is too. When they start losing games. Yeah, he's too experienced of a player. And like, look, if those numbers are accurate, if it was a lot of shoulder issue situation, I mean, weeks one through nine, they were playing well. They were scoring 25 points a game. Didn't he?

Didn't you have a game where he threw 500 yards and were like five touchdowns? There was a prime time game. That was awesome game you want. So like you can't have him there if you want Michael Pennix to be your future. I don't know if Kyle, Kyle, do you want cousins going? Are you on the mic? I'm just sad for him. You're sad for Kirk? Just sad in general. Just sad as a falcons fan. 72% completion percentage. four touchdowns, 509 passing yards, and that was against Tampa Bay. Yeah, where they start the year. So we'll take a break. Be right back. Well, I think a lot of people would have expected us to not be talking about Carolina yet because Carolina was one of the worst teams in football. But they got to play in a division with the Saints. But here they are. They're the third team we get to talk about. Five and 12 Carolina last year, the win total, five and a half. So they were right on it.

Do you see that point differential from last year? What was it? Negative 193. Ah. Here's their last seven years win totals. This is how many they accomplished, not Vegas totals. Seven, five, five, five, seven, two, five. So Kyle, as a Falcons fan, you've got to feel much better. Yeah, do you feel good now, Kyle? It's still a terrible division. Yeah, it is. Yeah. They also allowed the most points of all time. 534. It was a dream to play against the Carolina Panthers defense because they give up the most points. You talk about the defense that ranked 32nd and points allowed 32nd and yards, 32nd and rushing yards, 32nd and EPA and 32nd and EPA per rush? I am. Yeah. They are projected for one more win this year, six and a half. I am actually really excited for this team because this is the, this is exactly, not exactly. Let me let me phrase it better.

their defenses is going to stink. Maybe they're not dead last, again, historically, allowing the most points of all time. But they will not be able to turn that thing around. Not to an upper echelon defense, for sure. Meanwhile, after Bryce Young came back from the benching, whatever happened, Bryce Young was so, so much better as a player and as a quarterback. From week 12 on, Carolina averaged 25 points per game. That's 12th in the NFL. Bryce was seventh in fantasy points per dropback. He was second in quarterback scrambles. He was, like, he looked like a completely different person. And then their first pick is Tedaro and McMillan, who is, like, you can't be, you know, Jamar Chase excited about McMillan, but I think that he'll be a true number one in the NFL.

And that lets their last year's first round pick Xavier Leggett go be just a number two wide receiver. Which is really what he is. Yeah, which is really what he is. And the Canales offense is going to be able to run. No problem. So I, like, you give this team a better improving offense with a horrifically bad defense. You're saying a fantasy. This is the combination where you find some just stinky. treasures for fantasy footballs. Some stinky. You got to wash them off, man. I get it. I know what you're saying. It's not coming out pristine. Name the, Chuba is a treasure. Chuba is, is interesting. He's a fourth round, late fourth, maybe early fifth, because nobody wants to stink of Carolina. Yeah, like Mick, I like McMillan. I think that he, where he is going in drafts is late six is, is a place that I'm happy to draft a top 10 NFL draft talent.

And I think that Bryce Young really could surprise and not jump into a top five situation, but jump into a place where we're all making the jokes in week six. We're like, oh, man, Bryce Young, he's still doing it. Can we count on him? And by the end of the year, we're like, look at Bryce Young. Jason, we've got to get Mike a third my guy because we already know Bryce Young and Quentin Johnson are his first two. So we'll find the third. We'll find the third one soon. Probably from the next. Dowdle is on this team. Dowell's on this team. Yeah, you would never do two Panthers as a my guy. I'm sorry, my mistake. I don't mind having optimism because I think this is an easy situation to root for. I love Dave Canales. I'd love to see Bryce Young kind of save his career, which he started to do. I'm saying, like, often we'll have a team like this and we'll, in the divisional breakdown, we're like, this team stinks. They're going to stink again. Like, I think we got a chance here with Carolina.

Yeah, I'm having Kyle look up some numbers because I'm trying to find a really easy way to communicate the level of turnover that happens at the NFL level year over year and quantify it in a simple way. We're kind of looking into some ways to do that. But one of the stats that jumped out was like 23% of NFL teams on a yearly basis improve their win total by three or more games. So a quarter of the league improves their win total by three or more games. That's an interesting. Yeah. you know, reality in the NFL where you can't, you can't come in here and just say what was, will be. Yeah, there's not, there's so much parody of the NFL. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. It's easily among all major sports has the most parity. You always see teams go from last place to first place in a division every single year. This is a very soft division. The Buccaneers look kind of entrenched at the top. They've been there for a while and they, they clearly have the best roster. But the next three,

they're all pretty soft. Even Leggett is just, he has completely abandoned. Correct. Yeah, I mean, and look, I love Chuba. I really do. He defied the odds, right? You don't like running backs on teams that don't win games, and yet you like this running back on a team that doesn't win games. And then they went and gave him a contract. And then we know that, you know, Jonathan Brooks is gone for the year. And, like, Chuba's workload is going to be there. You know, well, doubt will spell him? Yeah, but so did other players last year. I think the workload for him. I mean, this was the RB7 for a stretch from weeks three to 16 last year. He can handle a ton of opportunities. I think he passes the eye test when I watch him. On the ground, he does. On the ground, yes. His work in the receiving game leaves a lot to be desired, and that would be the, the, if I had any hesitancy drafting Chuba where he is going, that would be it.

going to proclaim that Rico Dowdle is just so much better at that part of the game than him. But Chuba was quite bad at it this past year. Jason, sealing for Teteroa McMillan, fantasy finish-wise, if things go right. Sealing, if everything goes right, and he's the alpha one would be like wide receiver 15. And he's at 34 in drafts right now. I think the person that's going to play a spoiler for Teteroic-McMillan as well as Xavier Leger. No. Yeah. Adam, wake up. No. Look, Adam Thielen was injured for part of the year. Bryce Young was benched for part of the year. When those two were back together on the field, I don't know if you guys even remember because, you know, it felt like the Panthers were irrelevant. You kind of moved on. But the last seven games, they played together. Adam Thielen was on pace for 97 receptions, 1228 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was averaging 13 and a half fantasy points per game. I know he's. I have him in nice. You want him? No. Sure. I proclaim him he will not do that. Anything.

Literally anything you want. Okay. I don't care. It will. You agree. If I can make you an official offer, you will accept it? It can't involve any of your players. Okay. Deal. All right. He was it. Like, Leggett wasn't ready to be a number one. I don't know that Leggett will ever be ready to be number one. I guess if anyone's going to mess it up for McMillan, it would be Thielen. But I don't think Thielen's going to mess it up for him. At Jacksonville in week one, at Arizona and week two, then Atlanta. than New England. So that's the star. And we still have a team to talk about in this division. All right. I expect you to be a man of your word, Andy. Did you send something? Yes, offer has been made. Okay. Mike, introduce our next team while I go take a look at this sweet Adam Thieling off. Okay. Yep, be a man of your word. You agreed. If it did not include one of my players, you would accept the trade. It's a dollar of fab.

I mean, in front of hundreds of thousands of people. I didn't think about the fab. I'll be honest with you. Are you one of those guys that backs out of trades that you agreed to? Not with normal people, but with you, I think I might. Oh my goodness. Wow. Get them, Foot Clan. You could have got him, Jay. You could have sent over. I'll make you a counter. We'll get this. Oh, okay. It's the New Orleans Saints. Last year they were five and 12. Last year, their projected win total was seven and a half. And remember, Those first two weeks with Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed and it was holy crap. Look at what this team. Oh, it was so exciting. Look at what this team is doing. Jason was going to have to shave his head. Yeah. Yeah, we had the shave oh head meter. We had a beat down of the Dallas Cowboys in week two. And then they lost seven straight games after that. Yeah, it was a five and 12 season that just turned sour quickly. And now Derek Carr is gone. Now what's incredible is, um,

You know, they had a seven and a half win total last year. This year it's at five and a half and that's with the third easiest schedule on the books, according to Warren Sharp. It's a time of change for New Orleans, a time of they hope rebirth and rebuilding and a new quarterback and a new head coach, Kellamore taking over, who's been very good on the offensive side, something that they weren't last year. But rebirth does not normally come alongside like Brandon Cooks and Alvin Camara. Yeah. Like aged veterans. Remember when I was talking about the Panthers of like, we might come on here and just dunk on a team? I mean, it is hard to be optimistic about the saints. He has up the offer to two fab so far. I doubled my off. I doubled an offer that you already said you would accept. A 2028 third. That's what I'm looking for. The last possible, worst possible pick you can trade. I just, I know. I might need to start him. So I'm not taking it. You might want the fab.

to grab players, and later in the year, you're going to regret having not taken it. I'm not taking off-season fab, though. You only have off-season fab right now. I need in-season fab. We'll talk about it. I mean, I'm still a man of my word if they take it for one fab at any point in the future. Is that true? I don't know. I don't know if it's true or not. Well, the Saints' defense was not good. They gave up the most rushing yards that they've ever given up since the year I was born, 1984. So start your running backs against the Saints was the story last year. It's going to be a whole new scheme and there's going to be a whole lot of questions. Like Chris Oliva has come up in so many mock drafts because he's one of the few players on the Saints that you can talk about with any sort of potential fantasy outcome. But it's going to become reliant on a new quarterback. Tyler Shuck, most likely, rookie second round quarterback. Yeah. I mean, fill it out. Doctor. Dr. Shuck? What? He went to school. He better be a doctor.

It's six years of school. Oh, six years of college. Is this a Tommy boy joke? Basically, yeah. I mean, if he's not a doctor or a lawyer, he's got to have a master's, right? I mean, two years at Oregon, three years of Texas Tech. Dr. Shuck. Yeah, Dr. Shuck. Okay. Well, the quarterback situation is it's either Dr. Shuck or it's Spencer Rattler. So it's Dr. Shuck because we've seen Spencer Rattler. I mean, this like, There is... So I'm going to be honest. I'll put myself out there. It is very, very rare for a player to go the path of Tyler Shuck and succeed, almost impossible. The Brandon Whedon path? Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Brandon Whedon tried to do it. That's like the best comp. We're talking about Brandon. To be fair, not a lot of people try to do it. That is true. You don't have a lot of... Because when you're good, you come out of college and you get drafted by the NFL. You don't stay there forever. He was injured a lot.