Breakout Picks + Megalabowl Announcement! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. I'm laughing at this Monday time. Welcome in one and all Monday, August 21st, the fantasy footballers podcast. Mike Wright, Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway, and we're back with a breakouts episode of the show. Another weekend of preseason football in the books. We've got news to talk about. We've got regular-sized news. We've got itty-bitty news. And we've got some optimism around some players returning to camp today that we'll talk about as well. However, we do have a big time announcement. The Megalabal is open.

It is ready to be signed up for. What is the Megalibol, you ask? What is the Megalibol, Jason? Well, it is the biggest, best fantasy football league slash tournament slash contest slash thesoruses that has ever existed. It is, to our knowledge, the largest regular managed season long fantasy football league and the winner of the Megalabole. gets into our listener league next year. So you can join. You're in a 12-team league with ballers preferred scoring settings. You're in there with other Foot Clan members. It is an awesome time. You left out the eternal glory part. If you win, you do get eternal glory. That's true. I feel like the eternal glory comes from then playing in the listener league with us. Like that's really the... I don't think so. You don't think so? You think it's more winning the...

20,000, more than 20,000 played last year. I don't know what the total, the total was. It might have been like 22, 23, but thousands of Foot Clan supporters, players in the league, megalobole.com. For all the rules, all the stuff you need to know. Where you sign up, how you sign up, make sure you sign into your existing sleeper account if you already have one. When you're signing up, the drafts will be on September 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th. and will be a very good time. I will be in the Meglabel as well. I always am, so pick your draft slot wisely. I've already signed up. Maybe I'll be in your league. Yeah, it's going to be awesome. A lot of you have been asking is the Meglabel coming back? We were just biting our time before we made the big announcement. Do I get, like when I win, do I get two teams? I think that's deserved. Yeah, I think we were about 22,000 last year. I think we go to a 13 team league.

Oh, I just kick someone out. Yeah. Okay. And you get an extra. Very exciting. Megalobul.com. If you support the show over on Join the Foot, you get an entry. So it's time. Go ahead and pick your draft spot. We have a whole bunch of them. That way you can pick one that works with your schedule. More improvements to the Megalobole this year. We try to refine that every year. We know that we get all of your feedback every season. We try to make it better. And it's going to be awesome. We'll be a lot of fun. And then it's all things mega. We are going to be having a megalist show out in L.A. on Saturday. Ballerslive.com for tickets there and the Ultimate Draft Kit available right now at Ultimate DraftKit.com. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. We do have one more preseason game for week two, Baltimore, Washington tonight.

Thank you. Is that your first owl? That's my first hal. It was five out of ten. I was raised never to howl until a man's made a starter. So I wasn't willing to do it until he was declared the official starter. Is he actually playing tonight? I don't know. It's been weird, actually. We've had quite a few teams that absolutely don't play starters. The Saints last night. It was, you know, James Winston starting, Camara and Jamal Williams sat down. Kendra Miller got a chance to get back on the field, which is great. But other teams, they do play their starters. You know, you saw them for a large portion of the game. I received a very entertaining tweet directly at me saying, are we ready to give the Steelers their respect because they shut out the bills? Huh? In the preseason? Yeah, in the preseason. Did Josh Stallion even play? He did. Okay. I've got a lot of catching up to do.

Yeah. So, no, I'll give you credit in the season, though. I think that's going to be a good team. I think it's going to be a great divisional battle from all four teams there. But yeah, the preseason, the wins and losses, they don't matter to me. We had an injury, Jason, Dolphins running back, Devon A-chain. It was, if you didn't see the play, it was. It was the entire... Was that the play he got hurt on? Yes, that was the play he got hurt on. It was... There's a shoulder injury week to weak right now. Front to back. It was the entire Devon A-chain experience because you saw that he was a little smaller. Then you saw his shiftiness, his burst through the hole. He was...

so fast, rips off a huge run. Then eventually defense catches up with him, grabs him, lifts him up. Picks him up like a little child and slams him to the ground where he injured his shoulder. And this is, you know, this is the problem. We've talked about how for fantasy football purposes, in order to get enough touches, enough carries, enough workload, you usually have to have a certain weight. Otherwise, you can't withstand that. punishment and then you saw it on that play. You saw everything. I love Devon A-Chain. I think he's going to be electric and succeed, but his weight is a scary proposition because he can be tossed around. Week to week right now with the shoulder, so avoided a severe injury. We have Mostert and injured Jeff Wilson right now. We have Salvin Ahmed, who had a big game. We have...

The gas man, Miles Gaskin, and we have Devon H. I can't believe Miles Gaskin's still there. To me, that feels like. He's always all. This is like the episode of Seinfeld where I think George has been fired, but he just keeps showing up at the office. I feel like Miles Gaskin is walking in there and he's just like, looking around, hoping he still gets to hang around. Can I get some touches today, coach? I mean, he's just. Someone's going to eventually count in season and be like, they got. They got 54 players on their roster. Cooper Cup resuming practice. That's great news. George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell, supposed to return to practice this week. Hey, the only way they can get banged up again is to get back out there. Here's big news for you, Andy. Josh Jacobs. It's being widely reported. He's expected to report before week one. Josh McDaniels didn't comment on the situation. We had an article in the Las Vegas Review Journal. We had another.

comment on the Eisen Show from, I want to say Vic to four, who's a beat writer out there who is reporting he's going to be back. We had the general manager signing autograph saying he's going to get a deal done. Hopefully this is all leaning the right direction. We did see Zemir White have some quality touches in the preseason game yesterday. About four a carry, scored a touchdown. But Josh Jacobs is the dude. So we need to see him back out there. No. I'm sure Andy doesn't want this, but Jason, you're, we, we are aligned often in sometimes wanting to see the world burn. Oh, yeah, that's real fun. Is there, there is a part of me that I hope Josh Jacobs just is Fat Thor.

And shows, just, like, he, he walks with the contract signed in hand. And he has just let himself go. And he's like, I'm here for my money. I, I, I love the fun of that. I'm guessing he wants money next year, though. Yeah. But he'll work his way into it. Gosh. I'm not, I'm not yet in football shape. Give me a few months. What do we think about the hype train surrounding Kenneth Gainwell right now? I. I think it's interesting. The Eagles are a mysterious team with how they use their running backs. So we've been trying to, our best to track what they're doing with the guys in pre-season. For example, week one, it was Rashad Penny and DeAndre Swift, Boston Scott, Kenneth Gamewell, they were the players that got to sit. Go to the next week. Gainwell is playing. DeAndre Swift is not playing. I still think, I think that Kenneth Gainwell is the,

is the running back to target when you factor in everything of upside and ADP and downside? Because there certainly is a downside of taking DeAndre Swift in the sixth round. There's an upside. Maybe he ends up being the guy, and pass catching is kind of his specialty. But where everyone is right now, and Rashad Penny got to play again this week, but he was kind of the last man up. So Kenneth Gamble is a very capable player who the Eagles seem to really appreciate his skill set. I'm guessing this team is going to have four running backs, and all of them will be somewhat involved. I find myself just OUT here for fantasy. I mean, last year you had Miles Sanders, who was pretty much the dude. I mean, Kenneth Cainwell was a little bit involved. Boss of Scott carried it a few times, but like Miles Sanders finishes the running back 13 in fantasy football. You can't ask for much more than that, and you didn't like it.

It wasn't a good process. You couldn't start, you know, he wasn't consistent. He, you know, wasn't involved in the passing game because that's not Jalen Hertz's style. And obviously, they don't need to change that. It kind of worked for them. They got to the Super Bowl. So to me, it's like, I just don't, I think there's going to be too many people involved. And even if someone finishes the season, okay, it's not going to be a fun process. I mean, in best ball, that's fine if you want to go that route. But in your redraft leagues, I'm not drafting anybody here.

And just because we've got to get Bill O'Brien back into the news here. Bob! He believes Ezekiel Elliott remains capable of contributing on all three downs in New England. You wouldn't have signed him if you didn't believe that. NFL teams. We think you cannot contribute on first or third down. He's a second down back. Ooh, is there ever been a second down back? That's what he is. What would that skill set? be specifically for an only second down back. You're probably someone who can get. You're really good at play fakes. Yeah. Your play action cell is absolutely incredible. I guess he's more of a fourth down back. He might be a fourth down back. So you protect the punter? No, you just, you get the one yard game. Ah. You get the fourth down. But he, to Zeke's credit last year when the schedule got very favorable for him at the end of the year.

He was an absolute touchdown machine. Only Kyle could drum up the best second down backs in football in under 30 seconds. Ah, but these are players. These are just running backs. No, I, but look, it's very fascinating to me that there are backs that are ranked better on second down. Austin Echler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, Henry Chubb. Okay, these are all the good running backs. Wait, you mean the good running backs were also good on second down? It's who you expect. I want a running back. They only go in on second. Yeah, his contract, he says, I'm not out there. on first down. That's a risky down. Second down's a little looser. Yeah. Third down, also high risk because you've got to get a first down or everyone's going to be real mad, but second down. Everyone loves the second down running back. Yeah, anything can happen. You still got a third down after that. Yeah, you got a chance of it not being 10 yards. You have to gain your first down is like you always got to gain all those yards. Second down it can be easy. Yeah. And if you fail, it's okay. Yeah, we got third down. Oh, man.

We're a second down kind of show. I want to be a second down running back. Yeah, that's not too bad. All right, that was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Before you get into the breakouts, a couple quick things. The ultimate draft kit, we are updating it constantly. I did a huge audit this morning. Saw that. Which included some adjustments on Khalil Herbert that apparently I hadn't made. until recently adjusting kind of where I see Foreman and Roshan Johnson and a bunch of other players this morning just kind of, you know, looking at things like I noticed you adjusted Cleo Shakir, right? Because he's looking like fifth in the depth chart in Buffalo. There was optimism around him. Now it's Deontay Hardy and Trent Shorefield. Oh, baby. We're getting opportunities. Westy boy. Hardy. Yeah. I mean, here, I mean, in Buffalo, just to speak to that, like Deonti Hardy getting third wide receiver opportunities.

That has had a ton of value. Like Gabe Davis, even if Gabe Davis has a good year. Gabe Davis is a, what, 60 to 70 reception type of player? I mean, maybe mid-70s, if you're lucky, kind of old-school Vincent Jackson volume. So like Isaiah McKinsey, Cole Beasley, these are players that have had value in this offense. So if you've got a slot receiver, now maybe, you know, maybe Dalton Kincaid kind of nerfs that for you, but it's worth paying attention to it. But Hardy, I look great this weekend. I know he has. Hardy for Dynasty is a true nasty boy who should be, just check if he's out there. But Hardy for Josh Allen is, this is absolutely incredible. He is a sensational deep ball or deep route runner. Like he's so fast and he can win down the field.

Right, which also... It's for Josh. Joshua Allen will find him. And so can Gabe Davis and so can Stefan Diggs and... Well, Gabe Davis kind of lumbers down there. Like Hardy will actually beat the defender. That was pretty... That's kind of rude. I mean... I didn't know. You felt this way about the babe. I mean, he's just... He's there. Wow. Okay. Wow. Strong words. We got a bust episode this week. We got Gabe Davis coming in? No, no. We might have Gabe Davis on this episode, fellas. No, I like it for fantasy. I'm saying, like, but player. Do you think he's a lumberer? I think he is. How big do you think this man is? Gabe Davis? Yeah, he's a decent size. You know who looked like he was lumbering in preseason? Kyle Pitts. Oh. Look like he was doing the poop walk. He was running around. He was full. He's clenched. He was running around and he looked like he wasn't. Yeah, he's a little clinched. Hmm.

And did you see the target he caught too? Yeah. Four yards behind him. He caught it, though. He did catch it. But you don't understand what the mental toll is when you have to do that every single time. He even tried to run slower, apparently, to make it easy. Get back to the huddle. Okay, I know I caught it. Just don't do. Just a little closer next time. A little bit, maybe, maybe? Maybe in front of, like, where I'm running. Yeah, like, if you throw it, if you lead me, I can go score a touchdown. But, okay, you do it wherever. Wherever you want to throw it, I'll handle it.

All right, let's move on to the breakouts. Breakouts. It's a lot of guitar for one word. Yeah, but these are breakouts. That's true. You've got to build it up. Mike, why don't you kind of give the TLDR of how we view breakouts for all the brand new listeners, which, by the way, thank you for tuning into the show. Anybody that's joining us for the first time this year, very happy to have you. So to me, and I guess to us, a breakout player is someone who, not only exceeds their ADP, but they take that jump, a tier jump. So, like, when you're thinking about, where were they being in a draft next year? Well, it's probably multiple rounds earlier than they went this year, you know, just a ton of success from what you're expecting. But you can be, it can be wherever in the draft. So, like, last year in the ultimate draft kit, in our breakout section, guys, we had highlighted Jalen Hertz and C.D. Lamb. CD Lamb was still an early round draft pick.

But he paid off in a big way because he himself took a big jump as a player, as a focal point in the offense. And Jalen Hertz, of course, just cannot be stopped. Did he do well? He did okay. You know, truthfully, I don't think we've ever used this descriptor for a breakout, but it certainly holds true where these players will never be drafted at this ADP again. This is the one time that you can get them at an average draft position this low. And you expect them to make the jump into a, higher tier in next year's UDK where they're ranked by everybody in the same spot. So, you know, game changers, superstars in the making. All right. Volunteers to go first on their breakout candidates for today's episode. I can jump in here first, fellas. My breakout pick is Chicago Bears running back, starting running back, Khalil Herbert. Now, the path for Herbert has, it's taken some time. He.

is a little bit older, but his opportunity is through the roof this year. Kyle apparently went back and kind of previewed what we were saying about Khalil Herbert before the draft actually happened. Fun fact, Jason debuted the phrase Dynasty Pants. Oh, yeah. Oh, that was last year? No, this was, this was back in 2021. This was. Oh, yeah, Dynasty Pants had been around for a while. Jason just could not stop talking about Dynasty Pants. And I mentioned. You know, on that show, Khalil Herbert was one of my favorite running backs. His production profile is great. And apparently I said he could find himself as a three-down back if the universe works in mysterious ways, which the universe certainly does that. It continues to do that. And Khalil Herbert has an opportunity to actually be a three-down running back. David Montgomery is gone. I get it. That David Montgomery is a good enough player to keep Khalil Herbert off the field.

But look where we are right now, okay? Through preseason, he played every snap. Cleo Herbert played every snap with Justin Fields in week one. That included a third and long, which turned into a screen that went to the house. Again, I don't really care that he housed it, even though the play was great. It was more of, holy crap, it's third and long, and Cleo Herbert stayed on the field, and they threw him the ball. That's really good news. That's very interesting. Go to the next preseason game. Justin Fields, he didn't play. Neither did Khalil Herbert, and Deontah Foreman was the next person up for the Roshan Johnson Hive. Very excited for that running back. I understand that he looks like a skill player who could make some noise. But it's not his time, not yet. It is Khalil Herbert. And right now in drafts, people going ahead of Khalil Herbert, a starting running back on sleeper. DeAndre Swift, A.J. D.J. D. D.J. D. D.

Meanwhile, over the last decade, running backs who have averaged five yards per carry through their first two years, it is a very, very small list. But Khalil Herbert is on there. Big plays are possible. Huge rushing opportunity is possible. Chicago last year, ranked first and rushing yards per game. Yeah, Justin Fields had a lot to do with that, but first in first half rush rate, first and rush rate on second and long, third and expected points per rush attempt. This was a team that could run the ball pretty well. And Khalil Herbert, I believe, is going to be the first man up. And in drafts, like I said, Sleeper running back 38, going in the ninth round on underdog ESPN. He is going a bit higher on Yahoo, but still at the back of the seventh round for a player who is a starting running back for an offense that's very interesting. The Khalil Herbert situation, and tell me whether you agree or disagree, but when I look at the backfield in Chicago,

And the fact that Justin Fields is going to probably push for a thousand yards on the ground, I kind of wonder how similar this will be to the Baltimore running back room in respect to very limited receiving work has materialized in that in Baltimore over the years. Like I'm looking at the receiving, like Kalilherberts. He caught 14 passes, then he caught nine passes in his two seasons. Sure. You look over to Deont de Foreman. He's never caught more than nine in a season, Deont de Foreman. And then like Rocheon has a little bit of that in his, you know, in his profile. He caught 14 passes as a, but he was behind Bijon in Texas. That's not too bad. That's not too bad. So I'm, I'm just wondering if the receiving work in the, in the Chicago backfield is going to be akin to how Baltimore's been recently, which is.

You just can't find a lot of value there because it's not like Deont de Foreman's going to come in and provide that. I mean, I'm trying to give Khalil Herbert the benefit of the doubt in my rankings. And I've given them the most receptions in that offense. But we're talking about a minimal amount, which, look, that stifles your upside as a fantasy running back. If you don't have the ability to get at least into the 30s in total receptions. I've given him 29. Yeah, I think he can. I don't necessarily believe he will, but I definitely think he can get into the 30s. If you look at what happened last year, you have David Montgomery, who does have a past catching background. You had a year where it was 68 targets, 54 receptions. But now with Justin Fields, last year, 34 receptions. Sixth lowest checkdown rate for Justin Fields in the NFL. And so that's just...

something to pay attention to. He also has like Mooney and DJ Morbach. Sure. I'm not saying the Cleo Herbert's going to be a top 10 running back, but it's like for his ADP, I think he will break out. I mean, look at David. Just coloring in the lines. I mean, I have a rank very high too. Look at the, look what David Montgomery has done for the Bears the last two years. Running back 21 and 13 games. Running back 23 in 16 games. And to get someone who can, I think Khalil Herbert can easily finish in the top 24. But he's not being drafted anywhere close to that. Very interesting stat he pulled up. Kyle did over the last decade running backs who averaged five plus yards per carry through the first two years, like Hello Herbert did. And then how they did in their third year. Matt Berita was one of those guys. He ended up at 5.1 in his third year, Alvin Camara at 4.7, Aaron Jones at 4.6. Nick Chubb went up. Of course he did. Gus Edwards stayed around 5. Jonathan Taylor stayed around 5.

Two years seems to be a decent enough sample size on that yards per carry. Obviously, the amount of work you gets going to impact that a little bit. But, you know, Kila Herbert is going to have every opportunity. That's what I like. And if he can secure it, like the competition to me, it's not, I don't care about Deont de Forman. I don't think Deont de Forman represents a true, like, ruin your draft pick possibility for Kille Herbert. I feel like that would be Rocheon. I agree. But we haven't seen anything yet that says, You know, he's ready to take that step at least in the beginning of the year. Second half of the year, all bets are off. Yeah, I believe the note on Roshan was he was, he's basically fourth in line right now. He will earn his way up. But as of right now, it's Cole Hall Herbert's job to lose. All right, quick break and back with some more breakouts. All right, I'll hop in here with a man with a Madonna-style nickname. I'm talking about Cameron.

Does it? I wasn't sure. I wasn't sure where that was going, but it's the one name. It's the one name. It's Beyonce. It's Cameron. It's the most, I just heard Al cackling across the studio because it's the most opposite to the word Beyonce. You could have Cameron Cameron. Cameron. And of course, everyone knows who I'm talking about. Reservation for Cameron. We have like Brittany could be in there. Yeah. Madonna and then Cameron. Wait, have we said who you're talking about yet? Well, they already know Cameron. Kobe. I mean, some people might call him Cam Acres running back for the Los Angeles Rams, but everybody knows him as Cameron. Can't wait for him to be on. Just not his parents. On the t-shirt. Cameron. The nickname T-shirt will just say Cameron. We've really stepped down the nicknames. So stupid. Anyways, to talk about Cameron and why. Cam Acres is a breakout candidate.

He certainly is. You need to kind of follow his career. It was like, who's better, Jonathan Taylor or Cameron Acres? That was what people were wondering. And some people were on the Cam Acres side because of pass catching. Some people were on the Jonathan Taylor side. That was the type of prospect when he was coming out. He's dealt with injuries. In fact, not just injuries, but a catastrophic, usually career-ending injury for a running back. He tore his Achilles. There are almost no running backs that have ever come back from that. Deonta Foreman did it, and he took years to get back, and now he has never been given the opportunity to actually succeed. But we saw. James Robinson hasn't been the same guy. Ariam Foster's career ended shortly after his recovery. Right. And then.

So you lost basically an entire year with that. And then you thought he was done. And he got back. And he got back quicker than we expected. And then last year you had the weird thing where it was like, They're infighting. We don't know the details of maybe it was he wanted the ball more or had a bad attitude. But it was like Cam Acres was done. He was not going to be a ram anymore. He was not even activated. He was sat out for personal reasons. Like just go away. They were going to try to trade him. Remember they couldn't trade him? They made up. And then they put him back in the lineup and said, okay, you're healthy. We're just going to use you.