The TRUTH: WRs Part 2 + Start Your Engines! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/6

We're covering a lot of important wide receivers on today's episode, some elder statement. How are they going to perform next year? Some young up-and-comers and a lot of quarterback problems. You don't want to miss a minute. Make sure you subscribe and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Ah, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers podcast.

Tuesday, February 6th, heading towards the Super Bowl, Jason Moore, Mike, right, Andy Holloway. Gentlemen? Yes. How are we doing? I was waiting for a start your engines, but okay. What? No, like a gentleman? No, I know. Start your engine. I understand. Yeah. As I'm aware of the phrase, but your word association for gentlemen. When said like that. In that particular- I think it was the tone. It was the beginning of gentlemen. Speaking of tones, start your engine. We just caught, we did a live podcast back in Toronto, Canada. Yeah. Which was, Brooks, do you know what year that was? Probably 19? No, that would have been 18 maybe. 18? Yeah, I think back in 18, 18 earlier, yeah. And I pulled this thing up because we were reviewing the places we've been with the podcast. We needed a list of the live event.

for for something and we see toronto and then we pull it up and jason's voice is super high well i was i was up north like what has happened to your voice you you'll watch deeper voice yeah if you you should have heard me in columbia when i was in south america oh i was down here guys so this is uh proximity to the north pole that's exactly to the equator what is it the deepest at the equator higher to the no no like if he went to the south pole Oh, it would be inaudible. Correct. Oh, all the way. Register that's so low you can't hear. Like Shaq? Yes, Shaq would be me at the South Pole. What is happening? It was August of 2017. No, I just, you know. 2017? Yeah. Start your engines. All right. That's all I'm saying. We have a truth episode today, the wide receiver part two episode. We've covered the quarterbacks. We've covered the running backs. All of those episodes, I encourage everybody listening. If you didn't catch them.

Go back, give them a listen. You'll find out the reality of a number of the highest draft picks at each of those positions, what the truth was about their consistency, how they performed against good and bad defenses, home road splits. Did they actually help you win a championship? And I think we'll do some more. We'll be sharing a breakdown of the most consistent players at every position as well on social media. I encourage you to follow us. On X at the FF Ballers. We're on Instagram. We're on TikTok. Yeah, we are. And we'll be sharing more truth information there. Did you have something to add, Jason? I just found how you said TikTok. I said it like an old man. Yeah, you did. Yeah. All right. The emphasis on the on the TikTok. Yeah. That's rough. I am not as old as you guys. That's just important.

Yet. Yeah. Yet? That's right. But the truth episode. I don't think ever is... I could die first, Mike. So... Wait, is that the path to get me older than you? Well, yeah, right? I mean... Wait a minute. Yeah. If you lived a 60 and I lived a 50, you got older than me. Okay. But your corpse will all... I mean, that's still ages, doesn't it? My corpse does not age. I start over. Now I'm one day old. Oh, you're one day as a corpse. Yeah. But people always put up the tweets of, you know, so and so. It's their birthday. They would have been 72. You're saying that that doesn't count? I'm saying I would have, but I'm not. He has a point because. Could have sort of would have. Right. He has a point because if he's 50 and he dies at 50, right? Yeah. And he's got a 50 year old corpse. And I lived a 60 and I die.

and then my corpse is next to him, and then somebody goes and digs up those corpses, I'm the older corpse. That's how you get older, is death. It's all so clear. It's all so clear. We have started our entrance, fellas. Five days. Five days until the ultimate draft kit, pre-sale, Super Bowl Sunday. The Dynasty Pass will be available immediately if you pick up the UDK Plus. Very excited about this year. The newer app is going to be available very, very soon ahead of Super Bowl Sunday so you can get all primed up and ready to go. But the pre-sale starts this Sunday, UDK time. Ultimate draftkid.com, head over there, pick it up. You won't regret it. And what else is going on? We got a quick question, Brooksie? Oh, yeah. All right. Super Bowl time. Super Bowl time.

At Braden, Holstedge, 1814. See, that's an old guy. Yeah. 1814. That was a long time ago. Wow. I have Mahomes and Purdy in a one quarterback dynasty league. Should I trade one of them? Which one? And what should I be trying to get for them? So my answer would be probably not. Because in a one quarterback dynasty league, it's. Trading a quarterback is very difficult. Now, guys, the higher end guys, yes, they're in demand, but will you find a perfect match for a team that's willing to overpay or even just pay what you think you should get for someone like Patrick Mahomes? And it's dynasty, man. This year especially, if you were in a dynasty league and you didn't have a backup option,

Look around your league at how many teams just got ruined because of quarterback injury this year. And they're not just readily available on the waiver wire. You have the backup, you know, like Jake Browning was probably on the waiver wire after Joe Burrow got hurt. But even in some Dynasty leagues, those guys are rostered as well. Any backup quarterback that you feel somewhat confident in, they're on roster. So I look at it that you, the market won't. give you the value that you should get for these players, the impact they can have on a starting roster and the security of needing two quarterbacks. I usually like to have three, if at all possible. So I'm probably not trading either of these guys. Do you agree with that, Jay? Because I would actually, I'd be on the other side. I would try to trade Brock Purdy. If I were to trade one of them, it would certainly be Brock Purdy. I don't feel like you're trading Patrick Mahomes near.

the value that you should get for Patrick Jones. Like, obviously, his name carries a lot of weight. You could still get something good. But what can you even get for Brock Purdy? Let's say he wins the Super Bowl this Sunday. Yeah. That's probably, you know, you're talking peak value for a young quarterback, a young quarterback like that. You could probably move him for a less heralded backup and something. And that would be the place I'd want to be because, you know, I understand having two quarterbacks is very crucial, but I, I think you could go get another name. You know, last off season, you could have traded a lot for, like Trevor Lawrence looked like the trajectory was really good. The value on Trevor Lawrence now is much lower than it was last year. So I would, I'd be happy to move laterally in what I believe is production at quarterback to backup if I could cash in on Brock Purdy's peak. Right, but trading in a one quarterback. Would you trade? It's just the court. I got to trade for you. Okay, one second. Okay.

Who in your league doesn't have a starting quarterback who is like. I mean, Brooks. I mean, Brooks is in our dynasty league. He spent the whole year without a quarterback. He has 14 on his roster. Russ was his at the start of the year. I mean, I would be shooting for that team that's been let down by the trust that was put into Trevor Lawrence or the trust that was put into somebody else. And wants the new hotness. And Brock Purdy, you know, he's not going to get a long term deal after this season because they literally can't do it. Yeah.

So that means he's got to play another full year without a guarantee, which is scary because it's San Francisco. They rotated through people. But like, here's an example. Yeah, give me some names. And I'll just throw it out there. You tell me if it's stupid. Would you trade Brock Purdy away if he's your two for Baker Mayfield and a second round draft pick? I would not. You'd rather have Brock Party? I would, yeah. Okay. Brock Party's 24. I think he's going to have a long term... Would you trade Brock Purdy away for Trevor Lawrence? I'm just curious. Oh, that's interesting. That is a fascinating question. Because I would assume, based on this last year, you could do that. And you could probably get a third round, second round pick with Trevor Lawrence. I don't know that you're going to get plus, but I would rather have Trevor Lawrence. So, you know, that's the way I'd be thinking, though, is maybe Baker's not the name.

That matters to you. I think your point in who's going to trade for Brock Purdy says that you're not doing a quarterback. It's not going to be for Baker or for Love or for Trevor Lawrence. It's going to be this is a quarterback needy team. They're desperate for it. You're finding the team that doesn't have a quarterback. So really you're trading Brock Purdy away for a mid-level wide receiver. Would you give up a late first for Brock Purdy in your situation in Dynasty, Brooks? Can I tell you after the zero ball? See, that's what I mean. If he wins the Super Bowl. Yeah, if he wins the Super Bowl, then you're saying you probably would, right? I'd consider it. Yeah. It's been a tough ride for me. So, yeah, I mean, if I could unload Brock for a first, which I don't think you could do in most situations, but if I could for a first and I've got my homes, I would be. Here we are pretending Brooks has any picks. That's true. Yeah, but just the point being, like in our 12-person team, there's essentially one, there's like one trade partner.

and meaning that no one really has the leverage. So, and to your point is don't force a trade. Correct. He's going to be of great value to your team because players get injured and you need more than one quarterback. Don't force it. Yeah. But in my opinion, this might be the moment where if somebody is searching for one, you would cash in. Mahomes is the one you want long term. You know, those things are going to ebb and flow from a good season to a medium season. But like, Mahomes is who you want. Yeah, I would love to trade Mahomes for another star plus of first. You can do that some years. You're not doing that either a year that he's, you know, he was the quarterback eight this year. He'll be, you know, the previous three years he was a top five quarterback. The last year was the quarterback one. Wait for another outstanding season and then you can get a haul. Then, you know, then you're trading Mahomes for.

you know, a really, really good, you know, for Herbert and a one or Burrow in a one or, you know, Stroud and a one after Stroud shows that he's worth it, something like that. All right. I'm not going to hit the drop. I'm just going to give you some quick news before we get into the truth. Cliff Kingsbury was hired and then not hired by. He's Beck. Well, he was the leading candidate to get hired by the Raiders. And then he removed his name. Yeah, and he did because Washington called him right before he signed it and said, hey, we're actually going to sign you. And so Cliff Kingsbury is the new offensive coordinator of the Washington commanders who pick at number two, which has caused the entire earth to begin to question whether they will get Caleb Williams at two now because Cliff was Caleb Williams' offensive coordinator at USC. I don't really read too much into that. I think Caleb Williams is going number one, but we'll find out. He still could go number one. Yeah, you're right.

Oh, man. If the Bears get the Manders to go up to one. It could happen. Yeah. That seems like not even an unlikely scenario. The Saints have hired Clint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator. Coops. Run the ball. The Raiders hired Luke Gatsy to be their offensive coordinator after being spurned by Cliff Kingsbury. And the Chargers are looking to hire Greg Roman, which I want to talk about this for a second. Okay. We had the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, and then we went back and looked at how much the 49ers ran the football with Jim Harbaugh. And then you look at what Michigan did, right? They were one of the lowest passing offenses at the college level. Then you look at the hiring of Greg Roman. What does Greg Roman like to do? Run the ball. Run the football. And then I have seen some interest, some rumors, some rumblings in the bushes. Saquan Barkley to Los Angeles.

Oh, because to be, you know, we talked about the reason he did that with San Francisco. You know, it's chicken or egg, right? Like you had Frank Gore to hand the ball off to all of those years and a running quarterback. Yeah, I was going to say, Kaepernaker quarterback with Frank Gore. It was using your personnel, but obviously if you've got a system you want to run, go get the personnel. You need personnel. So it was the first potential destination for Sequin where you'd be like, I'm very in on that because it would be heavy usage. It'd be an offense that's built to do it. And, you know, most of the time we want these guys going back to where they're workhorses. I'd prefer Saquan in Los Angeles than I would in New York. Oh, for sure. Because if Saquan goes to Los Angeles, that is a replacement of Echler. They're not going to sign Echler and then add Saquan. So now you have him in a workhorse situation for a much better offense, much better quarterback.

Speaking of the quarterback and Greg Roman coming on board, we don't know what role Greg Roman is going to be hired him, but apparently he's coming on board. But my first thought was the rushing ability of Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert is an athletic, you know, quarterback who has not. He comes to Josh Allen athletically. Yeah, exactly. Athletically, he's close to Josh Allen, but he's capped himself at 302 rushing yards in his career. And I think that you could see a lot more utilization of. his legs as a strength. And that's exciting for fantasy purposes. I got a sidebar over here, guys, because I wanted to make a Jim Harbaugh khakis joke. And, but I, like, I didn't know if he actually wears pleaded khakis because I was going to go hard. Which is important for the joke. Oh, it's important for the joke. Like, that was, that was the crux of the joke. Okay. So I just searched, you know, Jim Harbaugh khakis. There's some evidence of, of pleats, pleats and things like that. But then there's also the.

People also ask, where does Jim Harbaugh buy his pants? And there's an article that sourced that he gets his khakis from Walmart. That's when you know. Walmart. But I'm like, who, why is this on the internet? Why are we putting up articles about where Jim Harbaugh buys his khakis? It's when you know you've made it, man. Good job, Jim. Back according to our research department. led by Kyle the Borgogan. Oh, this is a big update. Back in 2016, Jim Harwell made the switch from his traditional pleaded khakis to Lulu Lemon's men's pants. I was just going to compliment his thriftiness, but if he's a Lula Lula Lemon man now, he's the opposite of thriftiness. Yeah, he is throwing money in the garbage. Well, he's very wealthy. I wonder if that was a conversation. Like somebody came up to him one day and was like, it's time. All right, let's jump into the truth.

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right. Wide receivers, part two. Last week on the first episode, we discussed the top 10, C.D. Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amanra, St. Brown, Pooka, Mike Evans, DJ Moore, A.J. Brown, and Devante Smith. Keenan Allen, Nico Collins, Stefan Diggs. We classify. when we're looking at consistency at this position. We classify them into great games, good games, or bust games. Great games are 20 or more points. Good games, 12 and a half or more. Bus games, fewer than 7.5. So we're going to begin with the Raiders because Devante Adams comes in at number 11, and we can have a brief discussion about Jacobi Myers as well. But Adams at 11, drafted as the wide receiver 8.

31 years old. First half consistency was an abysmal 47. Now, the second half was 13, including a, I want to give him credit for a league winning week 17 performance. Sure. In fact, number eight, number two, two of the three weeks for the playoff weeks, 175 targets. But as you said, the first half of this year was really, Really difficult. 175 targets, and he caught 103 of them. Yeah, and he went through different quarterbacks to do it. Yeah, the first seven weeks were Jimmy Garoppolo. So when you see these splits, you know, Jacobi Myers, much, much better in the first half. He was getting those, you know, short, nice targets from Jimmy Garapolo. It was better for Devante Adams when Garoppel.

he wasn't the one that said it he's well he may still say goodbye that's true that's true do you say sionora when being being pushed out of a van is that i don't think you i think you scream it i think you scream it look here's what i want to point out though because adams finished at 11 right was drafted as the wide receiver 8 jacobo mire's finished at 24 was the wide receiver 58 off the board almost undrafted However, in consistency on the year, Jacobi Myers had a consistency rank of 20, whereas Adams was 25. So the fantasy finish, pretty big gap between 11 and 24. But Myers was more consistent. In fact, like you said in the first half, number nine, that's crazy. Like if you drafted or picked up Jacobi Myers off the waiver wire and you had the courage to put him out there, it was very beneficial in the first half of the year, tailed off in the second half.

almost, what, 70 fewer targets? Yeah, Aiden O'Connell did not like throwing it to Jacobi Myers. So, you know, when you look at the year for Devante Adams, I'm not going to go as far as to say this was a bust year. Drafted at a wide receiver 8, finished at 11. But it's close. It was a up and down roller coaster year, and he's one of those players that you were stuck playing because he's Devante Adams. So bust is too strong a word for me, but disappointment. That's fair. It is probably where I'd put him. I traded for him partway through the season, expecting, you know, the classic Devante Adams to reappear. Kind of did at times. But quarterback consistency, it was obvious that that was the major issue. Yeah, and I don't see the quarterback consistency changing necessarily going forward. I know that there are some rumors. Maybe Russell Wilson goes there. But Russell Wilson is not the answer to the problem here. And for me, Devante Adams,

He's going to be, you know, he's 31 years old now. He is on the downward slope. This was obviously a down year from the year prior. And I think that we have looked over year after year after year. When you get towards the end, I'm not saying that it's over and it's done. He's toast. It's all busted. But it doesn't go back up. It doesn't usually go like, oh, I dipped down at 31, but resurged at 32. So to me, I don't see him as someone that I'm going to be investing heavily in next year. And his name is still so big. It would surprise me if he's, you know, outside the top 15 wide receivers. I think the quarterback is going to be so important for Devante Adams. I mean, at the last two years, the targets have been there, enough targets to overcome a terrible catch percentage where.

The last four years, his catch percentage were 78, 73 in Green Bay, goes to Las Vegas, 56 and 59%. I mean, that's a, that's the quarterback. And his splits against, you know, top half and bottom half defenses against top half defenses, he didn't even average nine points a game. It was really beating the crap out of inferior opponents. And to me, that's more, it's a signal of. That's his quarterback. The quarterback wasn't capable of matching up against stronger opponents. So if it's, Aiden O'Connell could get better over the offseason if somehow he is the starter or maybe they go out in free agency. But that will be a huge point in my analysis of whether or not I'm in at the ADP of Devante. I wanted to look at this because it just, you know, anecdotally, when Pierce took over as the head coach,

It felt like it was better for Adams. And he took over, he took over, was this, he started, he coached week nine. Okay. Is that right? Kyle? So from that point on, his pace was 183 targets, 100 receptions, 1100 yards, and nine touchdowns. But the consistency rank was very good. He had double digit targets in five games in that span. You know, to that, at least with the head coach coming back in Pierce. Maybe you can get one high target year out of Adams again, regardless of the quarterback. But to your point, Jason, is he going to be a top 15 pick? Are you taking, you know, an older Mike Evans with Baker? Are you taking Devante Adams with insert blank quarterback here? That'll be, I think, a tough call for people. I kind of lean Adam or Evans.

Yeah, Evans obviously had the better year this year. And because of the history of Devante Adams, I would expect Devante Adams to be drafted over Evans next year. All right. We will take a quick break and come back with another pair of receivers that finish very close on the same team. Well, let's talk about him. Number 12. This is, you know, believe it or not, we don't sit around like staring at the... fantasy finish of all the players. So occasionally on these truth episodes, we get, I mean, Jason, you probably knew that Debo is sitting here at 12, but I'm a little surprised. I am too. Debo's at 12. Iuke is 14. So we'll talk about both of them here. But Debo had 20, they both had about the same percentage of great games. 21% for Debo, 20% for Iyuk. 57% good, 60% for Iyuk. 21% bus for Debo, only 13% for Iyuk.

So consistency wise, no surprise. Iyuk was two spots better. He was number six. Debo was number eight. They were both great. The TLDR there is like if you drafted either player, you were thrilled. You got a value, right? Late third for Debo, super value for Ayuk in the six. Yeah, Iyuk was definitely the better pick. If you experienced Debo got off to a hot start, had a bad stretch, then got injured. So you had a really hard time with him in the middle of the year. When he came back, he was on fire. So hopefully you. You, you know, held the course and just waited for him to get back after the bye week. But both these guys were great. There's a reason they're in the Super Bowl. Brock Purdy was able to do enough. The offensive system is good. And both players are so talented. I've never seen someone catch all of his deep targets like Brandon Ayuk does. Just if there's a target down the field, I feel like he's coming down with it. He's, you know, going forward.

I don't know how you doubt either one of these guys. The continuity is going to be there with pretty much the same offensive group next season. And they've just, they've proven that they are super talented individuals and they are in an offensive system that knows how to, you know, maximize them. To me, the biggest challenge with, I don't know, letting Brandon and I graduate to a different place in our fantasy vision. is the, you know, the 75 catch number, right? Where, you know, the target totals are not, and maybe you believe they could change, but I don't think in this system they will. Like I think this is kind of the best kind of year you're going to get from Brandon Ayyuk. He's actually one of the players that, you know, we joke about Tyreek Hill. Every time he catches the football, he's super open. To me, the second player that comes to mind with that is the way they scheme Brandon Ayyuk. These play actions.

You see Purdy roll to the right, and then you look down field, and IUC is open by 15 yards sometimes going across the middle of the field. I don't think 100 receptions is in the future for Brandon IUC in this system in San Francisco. I think you accept a big play guy that's in the 70 to 80 range, but that might make him a little more touchdown dependent year to year. Yeah, you have two years now of Brandon Ayuk being great. One fewer game this year, then 2022. So the targets went down slightly from 114 to 105. Again, one extra game would have had that really, really close. The reception, 78 or 75. Oh, interesting. But the yardage, 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022, 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns this past year. So the big play.

was working. What was the catch percentage year to year? Was it the same? You had 68% in 22 and 71 this past year. So all the numbers. Yeah, he is. But that's the, the question coming into this year was, was the breakout for real? I think that's answered. Now the question will become with near, like really, really similar peripherals of your targets and your catches and your catch percentage. But. over 300 yards extra off of those opportunities. That's where you have to take a step back and go, is this, will he end up getting overdrafted because of this? Like, could there really actually be a next step? Or is this, or does the fantasy community say, no, Brandon Ayuk is like a high level wide receiver too? Let's say Debo's drafted a round and a half ahead of Brandon Ayyuk.