The TRUTH: WRs Part 2 + Start Your Engines! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/6

I'll take the last 49er draft of this pair. I think I would still be on the Debo side. Would you? Yeah, I worry a little bit on the injury risk, but the consistency, the fact that they manufacture touches for him and you don't have to worry about a big play coming through because to have 17.9 yards per catch and be over 70% catch rate, which is what you did, it shows two things. It shows two things. One, it shows he's really, really good. I don't want to take anything away from him. But also, that's just impossible. Like, you can't do that year after year. That's a wild stat. So you would, if they're that close, I mean, this year, there's a big gap. Two and a half rounds. But if it's a round, if it's a round difference, I think I still prefer Debo with his rushing attempts. You know, it's one of those things where when they get up in a game, you're still going to hand the ball off to Debo. And yet, I yuk.

Two spots better in consistency. It's surprising. I wondered if we had the consistency rank from last year for these two. Do you know it? I think I can't look that out. We have it. Debo 23, Iuke 30. Wow, they both took such a big step up. Is that true, Brooks? Yes, sir. Wow. Were they both banged up last year? I guess I wouldn't have even mattered. Yeah. Hmm. But strong second half. All right. At 13, Jamar Chase. I think a lot of people were... Sad. That's a word. Yep. I think a lot of people were distraught. Mm-hmm. Depressed. I think a lot of people were. Upset. Oh, man. I was looking for something bigger. Yeah, you were really, you were on a roll. I couldn't wait for the run. Here's the thing. Catatonic. I tuned out. I thought the bit was over. Like, you were in the bit. You were part of the bit. You were half of the bit. I was getting ready for analysis. Jokey joke time was done. This is a bad year. He was drafted in the top three.

The top of the top. Well, look, I actually just caught some discussions we had before the season. Someone had shared part of, we went on the Green Light Show with Chris Long. Yep. And great podcasts. And we went on there and we were talking about the consensus in the first round and then when people were starting to depart from it. And the beginning, the first four picks, it was CMC. Jefferson, Chase, and Echler in some order, generally. Maybe Tyree Kill was mixed in there, but like Chase was drafted to be a bona fide guarantee for your roster. Just plain and simple, he wasn't. One third great, one third good, one third bust. Consistency of 23 got worse in the second half. Joe Burrow went away. Burrow was much worse than the second half. Yeah, yeah. And no fantasy points. So.

You know, Jamar Chase, I think there will be some people that are very, like, they're biting their nails when they have to draft Jamar Chase next year. I don't know if they'll be us. It won't be me. That's for darn sure. But it is hard. It's hard when you go through a year like this where he was on the field and didn't produce. That's what I think is hard for people. Now, we know that when Joe Burrow is back behind center, it's going to transform. the output. So I'll be in on Jamar Chase, but it's a matter of like perception. Yeah, I mean, you, you, like Tyreek's going to go ahead of him, right? You've got Burrow. Yeah, Tyreek probably should go ahead of him. Burrow, um, essentially stop playing in week 12. From week 12 on, Jamar Chase would have had a 17 game pace of 80 receptions for a thousand yards and two touchdowns. Like, I mean, if you've got a backup,

quarterback throwing you the ball, it's going to be a massive problem. I don't think that we saw anything from Jamar Chase to make me believe that he isn't the awesome dude, incredible wide receiver that he's been since he's been in the NFL and prior. This was, you know, the very beginning of the season, you had to hurt Burrow. Joe Burrow was basically a backup quarterback for the first month. His first good game was week five against Arizona. And to highlight that, Joe Burrow, three of his first four games, did not hit nine fantasy points as a quarterback. So, and we're blaming the calf. Yeah, I am. So the fact that it happened, though, I can't imagine, you know, Jefferson will go above him, right? Yes, for sure. Tyreek will go above him. I think so. C.D. Lamb will go above him. Yes. Amun Ross St. Brown? I don't think so.

You think that's the line? Pooka Nakua? No, I think right after those guys, number four will be Jamar Chase. Okay. So, yeah, kind of a lost year for Jamar Chase. We know the talent. We know what he's capable of. And it was just boom bust this year with the quarterback situation. He's always one play away from winning you a week. You're presumably going to have T. Higgins gone. So going to next year, when you're saying he is going to be able to be, you know, the alpha and the omega there at the wide receiver. Will it hurt him not to have somebody on the other side? Because it feels like it could be difficult. I mean, it just depends on if you really believe Jamar Chase is in that level of, you know, of C.D. Lamb, of Justin Jefferson.

I think he is, but you still need a quarterback that can get you the ball. If, if Dak Prescott went down this year, C.D. Lamb would not have had a great breakout season. And it just, Jamar Chase, his highs are so high. Like, it's a, when Jamar Chase hits, it's a week that. It's three touched him. It's like you could have benched the rest of your team and maybe still won. Like Tyreek. Yeah, but his whole career has still had inconsistent. Like not just a game on, game off, like a few games in a row where you're like, where the heck is Jamar Chase? And then he comes back and gives you a weak winning performance. So he, the, those other names that we've, the rattled off. Well, this is where Al-Man Ra is so different. Yes. Yeah. But the highs of Amun Ra are not what Jamar can give you. Yeah, they manufactured targets for Jamar with the backups because 24.8% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. Oh, man. For the one week with Browning,

It was just like nonstop, but it was all screens. Brutal. This is not winning football. All right. Let's change gears here. Oh, I hit it, but. Oh. Let's change gears here. You don't have a drop over there? Same one. I figured it worked. Sorry. Would you mind doing this one on your own? What? Oh, just, yeah, just with your mouth. I've never done this one. We built this city. Thank you. How, how? I was your backup. Thank you. You're welcome. It does not have the impact. Michael Pittman at 15 was drafted as the wide receiver. Oh, 35. Michael Pittman was my most reluctant pick in our league of record draft. When we did it, it was like me and Kyle and Damon were like, you know, should we do this? Yeah, I guess so. And it was kind of sheepishly.

We'll take Michael Pittman. Here's, because this is my only responsibility on this show, I think we got really lucky with Michael Pittman this year. Maybe. Because this is one of the best value draft picks you could have made. Wide receiver 35 turns into wide receiver 15. His consistency rank was 15. I mean, this is one of the best wide receiver 2s you could have. 6% great games, but 44% good, only 19% bus, and had. a plethora of targets, 156 targets, 109 receptions, 1,100 yards, just four touchdowns. I think we got lucky with Michael Pittman because we were given Gardner Minchu so soon this season. Because the reason he was a seventh round pick, a late seventh round pick, was in part because we knew we had, we had a significant doubts around volume. It wasn't talent, it wasn't the ability that he could put up a season like this. It was just, will they give him a chance to? And...

We didn't know what Shane Steichen would do in his first opportunity. Yep. Steichen and Minshu out kicked the expectations. Yeah, they did. One thing, though, that I think Stikin brought to the Colts that gives me confidence with Anthony Richardson was the pace of play. He played really, really fast, and we saw this through Anthony Richardson, too. It wasn't just Gardner Minshu. Now, we only have two games where Anthony Richardson played the full game. And in those two examples, you got week one where Michael Pittman was awesome, 19.7 fantasy points and half PPR scoring. He was the wide receiver seven. And then in week five, when he was the wide receiver 37, only scored seven fantasy points. So I don't think it's a. Well, it was actually week four. Oh, week four against the Rams. Even worse. Yeah, he was one catch. Wide receiver 72 against the Rams. So you have wide receiver seven, wide receiver 72. So that's where.

I think you're probably right, Andy, of we got lucky that for you, you got in fantasy terms, that Gardner Minshu is a traditional pocket passer. So it's, yeah, but he was just, and he ended up being so incredibly safe. You know, his, his splits against top and bottom defense is essentially the same. His home road splits, maybe a point differential between those two. So, where the. Turning it to the confidence of two games with Anthony Richardson, one incredible, one terrible. Is Michael Pittman going to end up overdrafted? I don't think he's going to be overdrafted, but I think he'll be drafted around his ceiling. But his floor is high to me because this is a situation where he is the primary focal point in the receiving room. I don't expect the Colts to.

Well, they got to pay him. They got to pay him money. Exactly. And assuming that he does resign, which is how most people are viewing this situation, the Colts just have to. Like, they don't have another wide receiver, man. If they let Pittman go, who are they throwing the ball to? Well, let me just paint the picture of a situation where they don't pay it. Okay. They obviously. Who was the rookie last year's name? Josh Downs. I almost said just Dobbs. Yeah, Josh Downs. So they drafted Josh Downs last year. They have a laundry list of tight ends in that room. They have a quarterback coming back that maybe your offense is more predicated on. They didn't have Jonathan Taylor for a big part of this year, too. So let's keep that in mind with the volume for Michael Pittman. If you come in here and you say, hey, I've got Josh Downs, I've got these tight ends, I've got Anthony Richardson, and I'm going to draft one of these electric wide receivers and not pay Michael Pittman because he's

somebody wants to offer them a big old check, that would be their pathway forward. And I don't think that that's a non-viable path for the Colts personally. Like, I don't think, I think Pittman is excruciatingly consistent. But I also think that you could, you probably have enough with somebody else. But that, I don't know that they're necessarily going to bring them back. Sure. I think if they don't bring them back, the entire conversation next year is, why didn't they give Anthony Richardson weapons? Well, this is what we do with every quarterback. So you have to equip them. I also think that there's more touchdown upside with Anthony Richardson than with Gardner. I mean, you play with Gardner a whole season. You had three touchdowns with them. You played two games with Anthony Richardson. You got a touchdown in week one. The offense is better with Anthony Richardson. And while he lost the season from a on the field play, he's still going to go into his second year. He was still there involved. He's going to be better next year than he was as a rookie. I'm really, I think I'm very bullish on Anthony Richardson's.

Year 2 breakout, not just as a as a rusher, though. Agreed. Part of that is sweet Shane Steikin's pace of play over there in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman, just four touchdowns. So if he had scored, you know, you give him seven, six or seven touchdowns. He would have been a top 12 wide receiver. Yep. And so a hugely successful draft pick in the seventh round and hugely consistent week to week in the top 15 there. All right, DK Metcalf. Oh, man. Somehow finished the year at 16 doesn't feel that way at all. In some ways, I feel like DK Metcalf was but a just like a mist, a ghost. A memory. Now, I remember him. I see, I remember him because he single-handedly destroyed me in week 13 on Papa Josh's team where he scored three touchdowns against Dallas when nobody played him.

Now, he's drafted as the wide receiver 16 and finished at 16. But his consistency was 21, first half, 38, second half, 18. Geno Smith Pumpkin this year, 66 total receptions for DK Metcalf. 1114 yards on those receptions, eight touchdowns. But the reception totals, they were not there. Only 6% great games. I mean, I don't know how to feel about this season. We watched it and we knew like Lockett didn't have a great year. Right. You know, Jackson Smith and Jigba didn't have a great year. Metcalf didn't have a great year. So the passing game took a step back. And now you do have a brand new head coach and a new identity there in Seattle. But is Gino Smith. We're going to find out within, I think, 11 days of this recording, whether Gino Smith's even there next year. Right.

Because they have to guarantee his money. And there's a new coaching staff in place. This wasn't, you know, Gino's guy who was there for the comeback player of the year, two years ago. So it'll be really, really interesting. I think we all know the talent of D.K. Metcalf. We're not questioning whether he's a good wide receiver, even though he had such a bad first half of the season. But he doesn't seem like he is quarterback proof. Yeah, it's crazy because I think D.K. Metcalf is... A dominant wide receiver, genuinely. I think he's a top, you know, five, six guy in terms of actual talent on the field. But you're right. Now we know that a quarterback can ruin his top 12 potential. Well, we've kind of talked about it a little bit when we gave our overviews of, you know, how numbers are going down for, for offenses because defenses are now going into the cover to.

like going into far more zone defense intentionally trying to stop the big play from happening. And D.K. Metcalf, as you would expect because he's so big and physical, he dominates man coverage. He had a 2.42 yards per route run and a 32, almost a 33% target per route run. That's an outstanding number. That is an elite wide receiver for fantasy football. Against zone, the targets per route run. drops down to 16.5% where some, and it's, you know, the 49ers are kind of a, like they have both of those where one of them can destroy zone, one of them can destroy man, where if the NFL is shifting, like, and they keep shifting more and more to primarily zone defense, it will be interesting to see if we ever. Which is where JSN would have a lot of success. Yeah, but I'm saying like, do.

As the NFL is turning to this, do we actually get another truly dominant season for D.K. Metcalf or is this now what to expect? Did you read the zone increase over the last four years? You can go bring it back. Yeah. So in 2020, the NFL played zone 64% of the time. Then it was 67% of the time the next year, 68% this last year, 71% of the time in zone. The defense is changing. Yeah. Yeah. by extension, you have a reduction in production on the offensive side in general, not just man beaters. But I don't think Metcalf is going to be on a short list for me next year. I'll just throw that out there. Like question marks at quarterback head coach, JSN's development. I think Lockett's under contract for another year, right? Yes. And then you have like, you take week 13 out, which was that Monster 3 touchdown week. He's outside the top 20 and finish.

he didn't he's not a PPR savior like I think he's a player that might slip quite a bit next year like we saw how far down like Mike Evans was this past off season I would not be shocked if D.K. Metcalf had a pretty big slip in terms of where he's drafted he went 312 last year I bet he goes just slightly behind that yeah I think he'll go a little lower but not too much him getting out of the fourth round seems like the the public wouldn't let that happen You don't think there might be some J.S.N. There will be. But I'm saying, you know, when you get just the mob seeing D.K. Metcalf's name and what he has done and look at the physical specimen. Don't go with the mob, Mike. Stay away from the mob, the sheep. It is ironic, you know, you brought it up. But the truth, the truth about D.K. Metcalf is he did not really help you this year. That is 100%. You drafted him at 16. He finished the 16 and he didn't really help. Just help.

hurt me one week. All right, quick break back with another controversial name. Okay, so D.K. McHav is going wider share of 13 in basketball. He's a good basketball player, though. Yeah, that's fair. I think in that format, he's one of those players that I think that distorts quite a bit because I would love D.K. McCaff and basketball. Yes. And guess what? He'll only help me there. You know what I mean? Yeah, you brought up the fact that against Dallas many, many, many. people did not start D.K. Yep. 100% of all basketball players started them that week. Yeah. Calvin Ridley at 17 guys, and this is. Oh, boy. This is one of the, I don't have another, this is one of the dumbest seasons I've ever seen. That's the best word I can use to describe it. Call it Sammy Watkins. I mean, he, oh my gosh. Yeah, that's what this was. That's what it was. Calvin Ridley is Sammy Watkins. He was drafted at Wider Series 17.

He finished at 17. His consistency on the year was 39th, guys. Gotcha. He just ruined people. 53% bus games. Yeah, the lizard prince. He is the lizard prince. Calvin Ridley, what in the world. You started the year and everyone, I mean, it was the quickest. Put the crown on the head. Yeah. You are back to what you were. Congratulations. You are the prince. The lizard prince. The drum beat from the off season. Every beat reporter was talking about how Calvin Ridley is the best wide receiver they've ever seen in Jacksonville. He's dominating camp. You come out and you start the season. And it wasn't even the first game. Sure, the first game. He had 20 fantasy points. He was the wide receiver six. He was the first half. Yeah, it was. It was just the NFL season.

opened its big red curtains and it was like the Calvin Ridley show and we got duped. We got had. It was not a good fun experience. The splits, Mike. Go ahead and share. The splits for Calvin Ridley versus a top 16 defense versus a bottom 16 defense. Bottom 16 averaged over 15 points a game that was against nine opponents. 15 points. Top half opponents, eight games, under seven fantasy points per game. Just wilted. There are some quotes, some talk of Jacksonville being disappointed and frustrated with the play of Calvin Ridley last year. And Calvin Ridley is a free agent. They said he was underweight, didn't supply yards after the catch, plethora of missed assignments. The Jaguars want a, quote, big outside wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence.

And that position is a priority on day one or day two of the draft. So, I mean, Trent Balke did say he loves Calvin Ridley, but I mean, you say things. I don't think he's going to be somewhere else. And I don't know what that salary will equate to because the inconsistent play makes you wonder if you can depend on him as a one. And he was going to want to be paid as a one. So he seems like the prime candidate to end up on a. Bad franchise as the best option. So that'll be a very interesting topic. I mean, the story of Calvin Ridley's year was, you know, did you, could you roll snake eyes? I mean, cast the dice. Can you? Yeah, can you? But, I mean, you know, 53% bust rate. Brutal. Absolutely brutal. Amari Cooper comes in at 18. Yeah, like you thought it was rough playing D.K. Metcalfe.

who busted 19% of his games. Calvin Ridley was at 53. Yeah, I think we've got back-to-back receivers where you're like, hey, they didn't help you. They didn't help your team. I remember Al Borland after week one was like, oh, baby. And then, well, Ridley didn't get him there. Yeah, if you had Ridley, you were so hooked from that first. taste of smack in week one that you were addicted and on the streets the rest of the year and he was in your lineup wait wait wait what was that jason i'm just saying we all heard it yeah okay you were you got a taste yeah you got it you got hooked and then and then you didn't know how to bench him okay because you tasted it all right and it ruined that smack um hey kids that's golden smacks hey kids um

Number 18 was Amari. Stay off drugs. Yeah. Yeah, there it is. That's where I was waiting. All right. Don't draft him. Don't draft Calvin Ridley. Amari Cooper comes in at what number here? 18. I don't know. Yes, 18. It's two weeks. Nothing matters except for two weeks for Amari Cooper. I think you're right. I mean, I think you couldn't have had a more. At least for this story. Week 16, Amari Cooper, playoff week. Playoffs week one was everything. You went through, what was it, four quarterbacks this year in Cleveland. I think from watching football throughout the entire year, I think we would all agree. Amari Cooper is still a great wide receiver. Yes. His body control around the sidelines and his deep play ability to come down with the catch was on display the very few times that his quarterbacks allowed him to. Still had 20% great games despite four quarterbacks.

47% good games. That's awesome. 40% bus was a big problem. And you didn't know what one quarterback was going to prefer versus the other. It got real good with Joe Flacco at the end. He was better against bad defenses. And here we are. We're going to be back with Watson next year and he's going to be almost 30 years old. Yeah. This last season we went into the year not knowing. what Watson was and some people were doubters and some people were believers. And then your Amari Cooper position was kind of based upon that. But there's a difference this year because last year, I don't think we were sure Amari Cooper still had it.

Yeah, because they got traded away for nothing. Exactly. The Cowboys kind of said, we don't want you. We don't think you are worth the money. And then what he proved to me this last year was Amari Cooper absolutely still has it. He looked like a dominant wide receiver. He just didn't have good quarterback play. Now, will he have poor quarterback play again next year with Voldemort? Yeah. Yeah, he will. In my opinion, he will have poor quarterback play again. Yeah, it's tough. I mean, he was kind of the cursory case last year when he went to Cleveland of the opposite of what like the Hopkins situation was where he switched teams and then delivered great value for fantasy. Whereas Hopkins switched teams and this year, that wasn't the case, younger, more talented than where Hopkins was with the switch. But, you know, if you look at the splits with and without Deshaun Watson over the last two years, was better without him.

More targets, more receptions? Yeah. More touchdown, higher touchdown pace, higher yardage. It's not drastic, but the numbers are better without them. No, if you look at the Watson, I think this would be interesting for people. The Watson only numbers is that that's a pace of 72 receptions for 1,200 yards and six touchdowns. And that is a very valuable fantasy football season. Yes. And so if for some reason you want to believe that Watson will improve. maybe you get a little bit more out of Amari Cooper than you expected. I don't, I mean, he went as the wide receiver 19 in the fourth round. I'd be shocked if he went higher than that this next year. It's probably going to be pretty close. He'll probably be right around there and I'll draft him there. Well, let's have a tough discussion here. Chris Olave of the Norland Saints, just 23 years old. He was drafted as the wide receiver 12 in the top of the third round, but finished at 19, had a consistency rank of 11. So when you factor in,

You know, everything that he went through this year, 11 is pretty nice, 10th in the second half, 18th in the first half, 0% great games, 56% good games, 19% bust. It was mostly worthwhile to play Chris Oliva. It just wasn't what you hope for. Yeah, I mean, you didn't get the giant explosive games. He obviously is a... very good wide receiver. He established himself this year as the definite one for this offense. There was a disconnect with him in Carr. You saw it game after game after game and you kept waiting for it to get fixed. Now it got better. Like you just said, he was the second half consistency rank of 10 and obviously Carr had some injuries along the way. But I think with another season, another off season, you know, Michael Thomas.

I have to believe that experiment is now dad. He's what he is. But at the beginning of the year, it was like Michael Thomas was Derek Carr's guy. I think at the beginning of this next season, it will be Chris Oliva. He looked very, very good. It's just a matter of he didn't have big explosive games that helped you win any weeks. And that's probably because of Derek Carr. Clint Kubiak will take over at offensive coordinator, right? In New Orleans. Coming over from Minnesota, right? where he wasn't he calling he was calling plays from minnesota last last year uh he he definitely was there after i just want to make sure i don't i want to make sure i don't have that wrong so um he was there in 21 oh yeah so i was 21 all right so Denver's passing game coordinator last year so he's a couple years from and he's taken over as OC right so Denver's past game coordinator in 22 San Francisco in 23