Mock Draft Time! + Data vs. Data, Pool Party - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19

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Oh, welcome in. Oh, wait, is it football time? It is football time. Oh, crap. Go back. No, I'm so sorry, America. The ship has sailed, Mike. This is... I'm a failure. A live recorded podcast. I don't even know what day it is. Well, it's Thursday, Mike. Thursday, August 19th. Some call it football time. We call it mock draft time. That's what's happening on today's show.

apologies to all the Patriots and Eagles fans playing tonight. It is football time. The fans are playing tonight? Yes. In preseason, they play the starters for a quarter, and then they bring them out and they put the fans against each other. And I'll tell you, man, if you want a wild game, you want the Eagles fans against the Patriots fans, that's going to be a hullabaloo. Yeah, I can't speak to the Patriots fans. We haven't done a live show in New England. But.

I can speak to the Philly fans. They're a rowdy bunch. We do have a jam-packed show today. I think this will be the most entertaining preseason week we get, right? Should be. We're at the, you know, three a year now, new 17 game schedule. A lot of teams have said they're going to give starters the half, right? So we'll get to see a little bit more this week and overreact to all of it.

I can't wait. Oh, yeah. A reminder, we're doing a live stream tonight. We have the ultimate draft kit for life giveaway. And so if you pick up the ultimate draft kit to help you with your upcoming drafts and you do it before 7.30 p.m. tonight when we're in the middle of that live stream, you will be eligible to win an ultimate draft kit for life. We're also going to give away a signed D.K. Metcalf jersey.

And it does not come with his muscles, unfortunately. Just the jersey. Dang it. I mean, you could get like a muscle suit and then put the jersey on. And then put the jersey on. Rest of development style. They probably have to account for his muscles when they print that jersey up. It's very flexible. And so the winner will be announced during the live stream. If you want to watch that, Ballerslive.com will be live on YouTube, Twitch, Twitter, Facebook. So.

Very, very excited about that. And a reminder, deep breaths. If you've already picked up the UDK from February to now, you are entered to win automatically. So you're not missing out. I mean, you could re-buy it, I guess. You could go buy it again for a friend. But it will be very, the second one you get will be very similar to the first content-wise. Well, it's probably updated since you first got it, but pretty similar. Yeah. So once you buy it, you're good.

And anybody who buys it before 7.30 p.m. tonight at UltimateDraftKit.com, you'll be all good to go. A couple other reminders. You can find us on Twitter at the FF Ballers. Jason is at Jason FFL. Mike at FFHitman. I'm at Andy Holloway. Socials, other ones, we got Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers. You can watch our show. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers in the community is jointhefoot.com. We are the MIB today.

I see, the men and black. Yeah, apparently we all felt a little puffy this morning. Well, I feel puffy every morning, Mike. I had a big piece of cake last night. My wife made a cake. And I had a potato soup. It was very good. I mean, the cake sounds better. Oh, I could eat potato soup and follow that up with cake at any point. What were we feeling like when we decided to go the dark salmon colored shirts at the same time last week?

Oh, very fit. Whenever you wear salmon, you're letting people know that you're feeling hot to trot. The color experts did come out in droves. What was the official verdict? Like a red sienna. Ooh. I think that one came up. Okay. I would say I don't know what that is, but I have the shirt. Okay. Well, I'm really excited. We've got a new segment that we debuted last week.

Great feedback. We had an awesome discussion about running backs in the second and third rounds, rookie running backs, and we're breaking it down again today. Never Not Working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart. Very excited to be into this segment once again.

We want to be fantasy players that have an edge over our opponents. They got the bachelor's degree. We want the master's degree. Every little advantage helps. Had a great discussion last week on what happens to rookie running backs when they get drafted with high draft capital and the incumbents there. What are the odds of the running back performing? What are we talking about today?

Yeah, so we're never not working, and we're working it with wide receivers who are drafted together from a same team. Three wide receivers going in the same draft, all top 60 in the wide receiver ADP. What happens when a team does that? Because think about it, there's one of two ways to look at why.

Three wide receivers are drafted and their outcomes. One is that this is a great offense. This is an offense that you want pieces of, you grab them. It's exciting. It's explosive. Get pieces of it. And the other is there's a lot of mouth to feed. There's three guys that are being drafted together. So we wanted to take a look at historical ADP and say, what happens for those teams? Would it be all right if I brought up the teams this year?

That fit that mold? Sure. We can skip to the end to start, but I like that. I do like that. I do like that. So what are the teams? You're about to give a bunch of numbers about the historical information. I'd like people to have those teams in their head. Yeah, there are six teams this season with that. So name those teams. So you have Tampa Bay with Evans, Godwin, and Brown. And that's kind of the headliner. You have Pittsburgh with Deonti Johnson, Claypool, and Juju. You have Miami with Fuller Waddle and Parker.

Jacksonville with Chark, with the three juniors, Chalk, Chenault, and Jones. And then you have Dallas with C.D. Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper. And you have the Bengals with Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Some of those are being drafted that way due to indecision. Some are due to excitement. So over the last three years, there's been 14 different times that we have run into this situation. And so we went and we looked back, 2018.

There were four teams that did that. And we wanted to see how often do they hit on their ADP? Do they return? Are there three wide receivers in the top 50 at the end of the year? And even more so, how does it, you know, are there two good ones from the team? So in 2018, there were four teams. And none of them had ended the season with three wide receivers in the top 60. None of them returned that. But even more important.

Fully returned. You're saying we're all three where we're inside that top 50. Right. But if we look at, well, what about how many times those teams ended up with just two wide receivers in the top 36? That's it. Just two in the top 36. One of those four teams returned that. In 2019, there were six teams that were drafted, same as this year. Not one of them returned three wide receivers in the top 50 and only one of them returned.

two in the top 36. So it's a pretty big miss. In 2020 last year, four more teams drafted with three in the top 60. Again, none of them, or I'm sorry, one finished with three. Oh, we finally did it. We finally did it. Over the last three years, one team has returned all three in the top 50 ADP, but only that same team only once in the top 36 multiple wide receivers. So.

To summarize it, basically we have had 14 different teams that have had this being drafted, and only one team has had that trio finish inside the top 50 at wide receiver, and only one per year that has two top 36 wide receivers. So this is a, it's a little bit scary when you look at the teams this year and the way that I look at it, because obviously we need the context. Not every team is built the same.

But I feel like there are three teams this year I really like. Like I like the options. I like the offense. I think they have a good chance at going against the grand on these numbers. But there are three teams that when you look at this data over the last three years and you go, well, they tend to basically there's a lot of mouths to feed and they don't hit together and they don't normally even have two top 36 wide receivers. When I look at Jacksonville, Miami, and Cincinnati.

Like, that's scary to me. See, I actually take a different view of that information. I don't care about those three teams. Those three teams are being drafted that way, not because fantasy players believe three players will end up producing. They're drafted that way because they're trying to figure out which player will produce on those bad teams. You're shooting your shot on those teams. Whereas I'm much more concerned about Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and...

what's the team and Dallas because those players are being drafted exceptionally high with high expectations. A good example is Chase Claypool, right? But if the data says that oftentimes two players don't produce, then I, you know, that's why I'm afraid of Claypool. That's why I would be afraid of a, you know, a CD lamb. That's why I would be afraid of an Antonio Brown or even a Godwin where it's like, okay.

On the surface, this one player can hit a ceiling, but if the data says that when three players have high expectations on a good offense, it's even rare for two of them to hit the ceiling. It freaks me out a little bit because, you know, one of those guys isn't for sure, right? Like, Deontay, Claypool, Juju. One of them's not going to deliver. Maybe two won't. Well, I, you know, it is worth saying that's, you know, this is.

Past results do not guarantee future success. This is not a guarantee that all three can't hit. But it is to look at the probabilities and say, usually this doesn't happen. And I totally get what you're saying, right? You're trying to take your shot. You go to the Bengals and you're trying to take your shot at who's going to be the guy because maybe it'll be Higgins or maybe it'll be Chase.

But really, when you dive deeper into the exact teams, we've got the full data, you know, that we're not trying to just read through our spreadsheet. And oftentimes when only one of them hits, it was just a superstar and a bunch of ancillors. It was Tyree Kill being great and then the rest of the way. It was Devonti Adams being great and then the rest of the way. How is it again? Well, here's where it's not. Whacking. I don't think it's, I don't think it's Jamar Chase is great and.

the rest of the way. When I look at these bad teams, I really, I get scared and I say, I'm just going to avoid them personally. That's how I interpret this data because I'm not really excited. And I'm trying to think, maybe, maybe this guy or maybe that guy. But the reality is maybe it is all three of them enough where. Yeah, where they take from each other and there's not enough volume and excitement.