Ice & Fire Picks for 2020 + Absolutely No Guff - Fantasy Football Podcast

his positional ADP is. So I'm fine with, if you want to take the shot on Tyler Higby on a guy who, who in a five game stretch showed he could be like the number one overall tight end, since the year 2000, before last year, you would only had three tight ends that had strung together four straight games of 100 yards. Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and, oh, I'm blanking, oh, and Travis Kelsey. And now Tyler Higby is in that group.

Rob Grunkowski, first ballot Hall of Fame, Rob Grunkowski, didn't accomplish that feat. If you give Tyler Higby 11.2 targets per game, which is what he got from weeks 13 through 17, in the offense that threw the ball more than anybody in football, you're going to be fine. If you get the three targets a game when Gerald Everett was active from weeks 1 through 12, you're going to have wasted your draft pick. And it is a shot. You're taking the shot. I don't want people to see him as a lock, and when you're tight in seven, you're getting up there.

Yeah, I think that's the issue, right? He's a sixth rounder right now. If he's dropping to the 10th round, the upside is worth that risk because, you know, whatever. I'm, you know, I'm not giving up a valuable running back or wide receiver in round 10, whereas in round 6, there's still some really solid known commodities. Sure. If they're running two tight-ins with Gerald Everett and Tyler Higby on the field, what do you think that target gap is going to be, even if you're on the Higby side?

I mean, that just seems hard to imagine that they're going to feature one and a half, you know, targets a game. So, all right. It makes, I think that makes a compelling argument for the ignored Gerald Everett, who was a really good tight end for long stretches last week, last year. All right, let's move into the fire picks. Bringing the heat. Who wants to go first? I guess I'm up. Yeah, well, Jason's up. We'll just keep the, keep the order going. No guff. No guff. All right. No goff. Look.

There was some recent coach speak about this player, and I am catching fire. Can I tell you what kind of coach speak it was real quick? It was the kind that made me go in the Dynasty League where I traded this player and make a couple of real piss-poor efforts to get him back. Just some real junk offers, just to assuage my conscience for trading him away. Yeah, and the hymn is...

Miles Sanders. I am getting a little hot and bothered. The fire is coming in my belly for Miles Sanders. Because this coach speak, look, our job, you listen to the show in part, I mean, for many, many reasons. Number one to win championships. Number two, to enjoy. Three, no guff. Three, no guff. And four, decipher coach speak. Because a lot of times coach speak is really, really stupid.

And this coach speak, which Frank Reich disagrees with you, but go on. Deuce Staley, the running back coach for the Philadelphia Eagles, was basically saying he's excited about him handling the full workload. That was the coach speak. And so I have three reasons why I 100% believe the coach speak. Reason number one.

specificity. I went and watched the interview. I didn't just look at the headline. I watched him talk about him. And when he was talking about Miles Sanders saying, this is a guy that can handle it. He's excited about giving him the full workload. He says he doesn't want to limit him to 15 touches. And then he kind of corrects himself. He goes, well, like I don't want to limit him to 15 carries and five passes. He's really specific saying he doesn't want to limit him.

to 15 carries and five passes. That limit, that not, you know, you don't want to limit him to there. If they gave him 15 and 5, that would be 320 touches, that's what they don't want to limit him to. Here's the players with 320 touches last year. Christian McCaffrey, Zecchio Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Derek Henry, all top 10 fantasy options, three, top five. That's a lot of touches. Yes. That's what they don't want to limit him to. Now, of course, he's just.

you know, talking off the, you know, off the cuff. And so I'm not sitting there thinking he did some math on, you know, his little pad there and came up with these specific numbers. But let's talk about reason number two, why I believe this coach speak. We've already seen it. This is, I mean, last year.

You had after the buy, which was right in the middle of the season, and excluding the final game of the season, because in the final game of the season, he got hurt. Got hurt, yep. He didn't play past midway through the second. And he was fine enough. He came back, played the next week in the playoff 76%. So during that stretch of almost half the season, he was on pace for 250 carries and 833 targets. That's 33 opportunities per game. So we've, this is Coach Speak saying that 320 touches is.

What they don't want to limit him to. And when he was the guy last year, they already were giving him those touches. So this isn't really coach speak all that much. And reason number three, the depth chart. You have Boston Scott who he's, he's okay. He's fine. Working against him, he is Boston Scott. Right. He's the sixth round Boston Scott that was cut from the Saints, a practice squad guy that only got the opportunity after.

all the injuries in Philadelphia. Now, he showed he was fine. I can't believe you're besmirching Boston Scott right now. He gets all the credit in the world for being the best Boston Scott he can be. He is the best Boston Scott he can be. And I like Boston Scott enough. He's a good pass catching running back. He's valuable. But he was there last year during this 33 touch pace for, for Miles Sanders. Who else is there? Cory Clement.

been there Michael Warren like been there depth chart is the reason that I loved Christian McCaffrey a couple years ago they're just what we were like oh is he going to is he going to evolve into the workload well it was like well what are the other options right they don't have other options the Leonard four net planned a success exactly of last season so those three reasons reasons the specificity of the coach speak the depth chart that says well we still have to and the fact that we've already seen it

And my final reason for falling in love, here is a list for running backs who have had at least 800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards as a rookie. Yeah, I know that list. Since the year 2000. That's as far back as my data goes. Yeah, I know that list. Saquan Barkley, Miles Sanders, end of list. That's a good list to be on. That's a good list. He had a really good rookie year.

He's being built up as the, look, there's no doubt he is 100% a workhorse back. He is a every downback for fantasy football this year. And he's talented. He's very athletic. He's capable. So I am in love with Miles Sanders upside. And I think his floor with those touches is very safe. So I mean, I think I might take him over my Kenyon Drake. I was going to say, let's figure out where you have.

Where the heart is fluttering? The heart has swollen. So let's see where we are. Will you be drafting Miles Sanders or? Okay, easy one. Kenyon Drake. You just said you'll take. I, that is the toughest one, but it's a coin flip. Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs? Miles Sanders. Aaron Jones. Miles Sanders. Derek Henry.

Probably Derek Henry. Okay. So that's where the line is right now? If it's full PPR, Miles Sanders, if it's half PPR or standard Derek Henry. This feels like one of those situations where like we have all of our internal like our UDK rankings and our projections and we have to work some, you know, systems in the back to stop a guy from moving them too fast. Like we have to have like a little warning bell go off. We've checked. Are you sure? Are you sure?

No, music to my ears. I mean, this is, I believe that this team is willing to give the workhorse role to a running back that deserves it. Right. And that's all it comes down to. I mean, just like Cam Newton was willing to throw the football to a running back that could catch it. You know, sometimes you force the issue, and Miles, I've got no complaints with what you're saying, other than the fact that this team seems to go through four phases every year of different offensive line, quarterback play, injuries.

It's a little bit of a bumpy ride with Philadelphia predicting. It was a bumpy ride for Miles Sanders, the whole offseason. So if you stay true. Carlos Hyde, Devante Freeman, all these leave then. And McCoy, if you just believed in Miles Sanders, it worked out. Well, I mean, look, as of now. I moved him in a league because I was trying to play the gamble that the rumors about adding another piece. I want to trade the hype of Miles Sanders before the acquisition of a Carlos Hyde.

kind of siphon off a little bit of the opportunity. Oh, it definitely would have. And I lost that. It looks like it. All right. Possibly. My fire pick, uh, and Andy was already trying to douse the flames of this player at the beginning of the show, but it doesn't matter to me because. Was I? You, uh, I thought you were. No. Well, I mean, I doused. I, maybe all the time. Okay. Well, but not specifically this show. Maybe all the time. Well, you were talking about Jarvis. I said I wanted Jarvis on the field for a Beckham bounce back. Oh, okay. So.

It's O'Dell Beckham, wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. Look, the... I can't wait to hear this. I don't love his... I'll be honest. I don't love the ADP, but I want to lay out the case. I think O'Dell Beckham will be back. And here is why. It was a terrible year for O'Dell Beckham, who still hit over 1,000 receiving yards, by the way, but it was his lowest yards per game.

by 20 yards. You saw a massive dip in production. His catch rate was a career 62.75%. The catch rate plummeted down to Andy. 55%. Thank you. Now look, let's take a deeper look at Odell Beckham, the player. Reception perception. It's how Matt Harmon charts players. He looks at wide receivers. We have that data exclusively available in the ultimate draft kit.

He has graded O'Dow Beckham. Always positive. Odo Beckham has crushed this system. He has never finished below the 98th percentile versus press coverage. So you want to bump on O'Dell Beckham? He is in the top 2%. He is getting open. It's a stupid thing to run press coverage against him. Last year, from the top 2%, he fell to the 45th percentile. Like, that is an unbelievable drop, which, look.

To me, that says something very specifically, that if you're putting your hands on Beckham, he's not, something is missing. And then Matt Harmon's assessment was it was so pronounced his drop, you have to conclude that Beckham simply was not healthy at any point in 2019. And here is a quote that I missed from December. Beckham said, I've been banged up all year since whatever happened in camp.

Odo Beckham was on the injury report every single week. We just did not realize how bad this training camp injury actually was. It was a core injury. He had to go and get it repaired, which he has done in the offseason. Odo Beckham's going to be 100%. Yeah, is it 100% healthy now. Jarvis may not be. What was interesting of when I was looking back for Odo, Jarvis wasn't going to have surgery. That was.

Kind of the decision. And then a little bit later on, they clearly changed their minds. I know you should do this. I don't know. And then let's look at the other opportunity. Who's thrown in the ball? So I believe that Baker Mayfield, I believe he can bounce back with Kevin Stefanski as his head coach. Freddie Kitchens was an absolute failure. We saw Odo Beckham's deep completion percentage, his adjusted completion percentage, dropped 10%.

from his rookie year to last year. His regular completion percentage dropped by five whole points. The offensive line has been rebuilt. Going into the season, Pro Football Focus is projecting them as the number six offensive line headed into the season. You have a new OC, Alex Van Pelt, who is a former quarterback. He is a quarterback coach. He was the quarterback coach for Aaron Rogers when Aaron Rogers had his MVP season. Not saying you give all the credit to the quarterback coach,

That certainly helps that the OC, his main focus is fixing Baker Mayfield. And then something that I thought was, you know, it's at least interesting, was Kurt Cousins saw his clean dropbacks improve from 61% of the time he had a clean pocket. That jumped all the way up to 69%.

under the Kevin Stefansky two tight-end offense. He put emphasis on protecting Kurt Cousins. Nice. Baker needs it. I really think that this system is set up so perfectly for Baker to bounce back, which, by the way, we've seen Baker as a starting quarterback, basically, you know, the five years. His two pro years, and then his three years is Oklahoma. I'm ignoring the Texas year.