Ice & Fire Picks for 2020 + Absolutely No Guff - Fantasy Football Podcast

rushing numbers. He drops to 857 rushing yards. A 400 rushing yard drop. The offensive line could not block what he needed to get open. There's all the talk of Todd Gurley's arthritic knee. Yeah, I was going to say, do you almost feel like the injury was over-emphasized relative to these type of... I'm just saying it's definitely, like I hadn't even gotten to that part of the argument of the team was...

The team chose not to go all out with Todd Gurley last year. I mean, he was still getting opportunity, but the efficiency absolutely collapsed. Now he goes to the Atlanta Falcons, where the last two years, their offensive line has ranked 24th. That's not a great situation. They do have a couple pieces who are interesting, but pro football focus is projecting them as the 24th best offensive line. So Todd Gurley is not walking into a great situation.

Todd Gurley also, he could be limping into a great situation. He could be limping with one good knee. I see what you did there. Let's talk about Red Zone opportunity because Todd Gurley was still fine for fantasy football with his 850 rushing yards because the dude was scoring absolutely nonstop. And that's because last year the Rams had 18 carries at the running back position inside the five. Atlanta, 10. Two years ago, the Rams had 20 carries inside the five.

Atlanta, oh wait, still 10 because they're not getting opportunities to the running back position inside the five. Like, what has happened to Todd Gurley? The Rams know something. The Rams did not want to pay him. Like, they could have kept Todd Gurley forever. He was under contract. They're paying him still. And they said, nah, man, we need you off the team. You're better for our team if you aren't on it anymore. And look.

The receptions. Here's where things are really crazy to me. The receptions. We know that the receptions absolutely plummeted, but Todd Gurley was still on the field. Last year, he ran the four, or tied with the fourth most routes run at the running back position. He was out there. And his receiving rank from pro football focus, 132 out of a, I'm sorry.

132nd best out of 137 running backs. Or the big headline. That is behind Kalin Belage, the dude who has the circus video of him being scared to catch the ball, being brick hands. That's how pro football focus graded out Todd Gurley's receiving grade. Things have absolutely plummeted for.

for Gurley. And like I said, he was out there, 391 routes run, only 49 targets to put that in perspective. He was running very similar routes the past couple of years for Sean McVeigh when he was getting 81 targets, 87 targets. The team decided, Jared Goff decided, I'm not going to throw the ball to Todd Gurley.

I don't like what is happening when I throw him the ball. So I am very concerned about the player. The situation is not great. Yeah, he's the lead back. He'll see opportunity. You don't know something interesting that I'm very concerned. I just glanced. I wanted to see how the fantasy community valued Devante Freeman in this offense last year. He has the identical draft position that Todd Gurley does right now.

Last year? Last year. He was the fifth pick of the third round. Todd Gurley's current ADP is the fifth pick of the third round. Oh my goodness. Seriously? Yeah. So it's interesting, like looking at year over a year, Devanta Freeman last, because I was kind of wondering, like, are we getting the name recognition bump for ADP-wise with Gurley? And I actually think, you know, certain players, we reference.

Maybe this is a good time to talk about it. We reference average draft position on the show a lot, which is a conglomeration, an average of every single mock draft taking place over a recent amount of time. That doesn't mean that's going to happen in your league. And it's very important for you to understand. Todd Gurley's the kind of player that I think will have a wider variance than other players in terms of in one league he's going to be a second round pick. In another league, he might be a fourth round pick because he's been at the...

forefront of the fantasy community for so long. He's got a big name, big production, won people leagues, lost people leagues. Hurtney, not Hurtney. He may not go in this range, but, you know, you bring up some very important points. I've always thought this off season, he's just not going to get as much of the work as, you know, we want him to as fantasy owners. Well, that would be even worse. Exactly. I mean, like if Brian Hill, you know, recently they've said they believed he had, he should have an opportunity in the office. If he gets a little bit of extra work.

It's going to make it difficult for Gurley to return draft value unless that offensive line takes a step forward because then you might make the argument that efficiency will rise. Yeah, I have been more positive towards Todd Gurley. And my argument for that is the fact that what he lost last year was the receiving work that made Todd Gurley so valuable. A reception is worth so much more in fantasy football than a carry. And he didn't get the targets and the receptions that.

Todd Gurley should or Todd Gurley of old has. Or any other running back running that amount of routes. Absolutely. And so when I look at how much, you know, over the course of, you know, Devon Freeman's career, he's been involved in the passing game, how many vacated targets for Atlanta, the passing opportunity for Todd Gurley and Atlanta is what has excited me. Looking deeper as you have at.

the fact that he was running the routes. He was involved. He just wasn't good. Well, it's hard to know who to blame, though. But at least we know that the blame can be his. If he's not out there running routes and they schemed him away and they just decided we need more blockers in or whatever the case is, then we say, well, Gurley's going to have more opportunity here. But he had the opportunity last year and didn't come through in the receiving game, whether that's just getting

you know, to a break on a route quicker, and he doesn't get there. And so he's not the read. That scares me a little bit more. And certainly, when I saw this breakdown, it makes me rethink my Gurley love. Where are you comfortable with him, Mike? Is he a fourth round running back instead of a third round running back? He's not a fourth round running back for me either. That's what I want to say. There is a world where Todd Gurley can be very valuable for your fantasy team. He's just, he is an ice pick for me at his current.

ADP. If he's dropping into, I mean, it would have to be a big drop. Let me challenge you because you won't like the question because it's not going to be easy. All right. We just talked about McCoy, Ronald Jones or Todd Gurley. I know it's not going to be a very good question for you. That is terrible. I think I would. It was a bad one. Slightly Todd Gurley. Okay. I think that's where I am too. Speaking of schemes, talking about Gurley.

what he did last year. We're going to talk about another tight end to finish out the ice section. It's another ice bath for a tight end. And it's almost entirely because this argument needs to be made entirely because of the ADP of this player. And it's Tyler Higby. Fantasy Darling for the back half of the year, tight end seven right now in fantasy drafts.

Is he the Hig Beast? Is he the Hig bust? That's what we've got to figure out. We've got to figure that out. La Dita. That's pretty good. Jason was a big fan. For Tyler Higby, and you look forward into this season, we've talked a lot about the Rams and what they're going to do on the offense. And I'm going to concede a few points in this argument against Tyler Higby. But it comes down to Snap's opportunity and then the recency.

argument for Tyler Higby. His five-game stretch to end the season was outlandishly good. It's historically good. That's a good way to put it because I think there's about three or four tight ends that have ever done that over a five-game span. When I look at Tyler Higby, though, how predictive are these five games? This is a player that I think has 63 NFL games in his career. Am I confident enough in Tyler Higby?

to invest a six-round pick, to make him the tight-in seven based on five games out of 63 in his career. And yes, I can hear you in the back of my head. Tight-ins take a while to develop. Tight-ins can be featured later on. I see myself as more of like a baritone or a bass. Yeah, that voice is pretty high. But. Tight-ins take a while to develop. I got you, Mike. I really needed the regular Vopo, not my voice or Mike. But.

When you look at what took place, I think you saw a perfect storm at the end of last season that doesn't justify putting him in the top eight tight ends. I understand that the upside was presented to you on the field. Last week, I brought up the fact, you know, four of the last five games of the season, you had a few things working in Tyler Higby's favor. Like hundreds of receiving yards? Hundreds of receiving yards were working in his favor. Available to him because in weeks.

You know, 13 through 17, you had basically no Brandon Cooks. You had basically no Gerald Everett. You know, Gerald Everett is the Jordan Reed prototype, hand-selected by Sean McVeigh, treated as the pass-catching back. When you look at what Tyler Higbee has done, he's succeeded at a far greater level than Gerald Everett in blocking.

not being that move tight in, not being that athletic tight in going out and catching the passes. Last year, and you look at snap counts, week one through 12 for Tyler Higby, Tyler Higbeast on the field 35% of the time when Gerald Everett was healthy, when Brandon Cooks was healthy. That week's 13 through 17, all of a sudden you're at 68% of the time he's on the field. We saw the transition to 12 personnel, and here's the point I'm willing to concede. I think you're going to see more of that this year than you did last year.

Otherwise, I don't think that this team gives away Brandon Cooks for free. I really don't. If they're a three-wide receiver offense, I don't think they give Brandon Cooks away for free. But when you look at targets, I mean, Gerald Everett was gone. You know, this offseason anecdotal Sean McVeigh hype talk speak, you know, excited about what Gerald Everett's going to do. I think Tyler Higbrey did a phenomenal job, but I think Gerald Everett's a guy that I've got to do a better job of utilizing the skill set on.

I think it wasn't at the very end of the year he was back on the field and golf missed him on that route down the sideline to win that last game? Ever? I can picture it ever. Yeah, coming down the side of the field. He was drafted to be that Reed clone. And so you have to look at it. And to me, I just don't see Higby as a featured option week in and week out once you have Gerald Everett back into the fold. He's the more athletic tied in.

And so then you're looking at a two tight-in situation. You're looking at target distribution with Cooper Cup, the running backs, Robert Woods, both guys, both wide receivers are going to demand a lot of targets. So my prediction for him is that he is a back-in tight-in one. He's a high-end tight-in two range. And Everett pops up to massacre weeks for him. I mean, too frequently for me to draft him at tight-in seven. And here's the gap that you see in average draft position. Higby's the seventh or eighth tight-in off the board.

Gerald Everett's the 35th or 36 tight end off the board. If the argument is this offense is going to move forward with two tight-in sets and Gerald Everett has proven like he did last year in multiple game stretches to be a good fantasy tight-in, why on earth isn't Everett getting any attention in the fantasy community? He's on the field just as much. Yes. But Higbeast was on pace for 137 receptions and 1670 yards. It's true.

It's true, but I don't want to play the five-game pace. No. The snap breakdowns and the match-up specificity of those five games says that that is absolutely a mirage. That being said, he did show his team that when involved, he can be great. Against four teams that were the dead last in the league at giving up points to tie it in. And I will say this.

They got exploited every week. The Cardinals twice, 49ers in Seattle. The NFC West starts your tight-ins. And that's a good coach. A good coach should see a team as vulnerable and feature what you got left. There are certain positions that are easier to stream based on a matchup, right? Like defenses. I love streaming defenses because you know what the bad offenses are. Who throws a bunch of picks? One of the best positions of stream is tight-in because...

Those teams that stink at guarding tight end, they stink every week at guarding tight end. And so I will say that. I think it's a good point. And I like Everett this year. I think it's going to be a one-two punch. And I'm not sure who the one in the one-two punch is. Just to piggyback on the historic, because here's why I believe in Tyler Higby, I have him ranked right where.