Early Top 10 WR Rankings + Disappearing Acts

But he dropped from 142 receptions down to 94 the next year. And he actually never, despite having another 10 years or whatever it was, he actually never broke the 100 catch mark again. And I'm not saying that Michael Thomas is going to imitate that. But that's more of, you know, not a reflection on the talent, but just on the reality of breaking records, special seasons. We know his catch rate is ridiculous. He's been at 82.

0.5% averaged over the last two years with Breeze. And I don't expect that to change at all with Breeze back. Over the last two years, that's the highest catch percentage of any wide receiver with over 100 receptions. I looked at the same thing, Andy, because I wanted to see if there was any trends. We could gleam from that. But there are guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones. You can want to go back even a little bit further. Like Chris Carter, guys sustain.

their high level of receptions. It happens. And so I was trying to figure out, okay, how is it possible if Michael Thomas doesn't hit that mark? Let's try and be the devil's advocate at least. And the question is brought up of Emmanuel Sanders is now on the team. What does he do to this offense? How many targets does he absorb coming in? Because as soon as he was traded to San Francisco, he took 27% of their targets. Now, a very different team, but I'm saying,

Sanders was traded in the middle of the season, and that was the target share that he commanded. Now, on the Saints, last year, Michael Thomas was insane. Alvin Camara, near 100 targets, and Camara will be there again. It's the third option. Last year, it was Jared Kukk, who had 11% of the targets. Still funny, by the way. Yes, it's really hard to give it. I don't understand what's funny.

Jason is the best at throwing it out and moving away on face. Jared Kuk. So 11% of the targets. Two years ago when Michael Thomas was still insane, Ben Watson was the third option, 9%. So that's what Michael Thomas has had to deal with. Alvin Camara and then tight ends who are getting about 10% of the market share. What happens if Emmanuel Sanders goes in and he's at 15%. I mean, that's...

Then Michael Thomas is still a top five wide receiver. That's the answer. But the odds of repeating are very low, a season like this with that question. I looked to move him down because I don't believe necessarily that he'll be the number one. But because this is the early wide receiver ranking show, I felt like he deserved it. After the season he had and, you know, really Emmanuel Sanders being the only one to come in here and cause problems. Now, when we stat everybody out for the ultimate draft kit and we actually break down.

Well, how many targets will Emmanuel Sanders have? How many passes as Drew Brie is going to be able to throw? And what does this, you know, what does this mean for Michael Thomas? I'll bet he doesn't end up as my number one. But this was honorary because he just had a historic season. And if you were to take him number one overall at wide receiver, not number one in the draft, but the first wide receiver off the board, I don't think you're going to be disappointed because his baseline is so high. His, you know, you talked about his catch rate, Andy, just being astronomical.

of his 180 targets, 155 were deemed catchable. So his true catch rate was 96%. I mean, he's absurdly great. He's good, yeah, solid point. At the end of the day, I wanted to ask this question before we move on. What's the percentage odds you would give him finishing at number one? Because I know that, you know, the variability, other receivers stepping up.

Is this a, you know, is this a 50-50 shot for you? Is this much lower? Okay. Yeah, it's in the 20s just because I think there's easily five players that could finish number one. So, you know, if you say what's the percentage chance of the next few we're going to talk about finishing number one, it's probably near the 20s. And my last point here, which against Michael Thomas, Drew Brees was passing at a rate that we haven't seen.

In a long time, like his actual 16 game pace was 597 attempts to put that in context. Two years ago, it was 489 before that 536. So Breeze was just having to throw the ball a whole lot more. So we'll see if that continues or not. The nice thing is, is that his record-breaking statistical performance last year was in a more predictable category, what we've seen from Michael Thomas for multiple years, high catch rate.

Low yards per reception. It wasn't on the basis of a 17 touchdown type of season. He had nine, and I probably wouldn't bet on him having fewer than nine touchdowns again this year. That seems reasonable, even if Camara runs in a few more, whatever the case may be. Number two, we actually have Julio Jones. Julio Jones is our consensus number two wide receiver. But Andy, isn't he getting old? Yeah, I mean, we are all getting old, Jason. We're all getting older.

I didn't ask that question. Why are you responding to me? That was the public opinion. Oh, I'm sorry. Yes. Jason has him at two. Mike and I have him at number three. He's averaged 161.7 targets over the last six seasons. I don't know if we need to tell you about Julio Jones. I think we need to talk about whether this continues on the basis of that inquiry from the voice of public opinion, which is.

you know, is there any cause for concern, regression, those type of things? I don't think so this year. No, I mean, it's just a matter of when he falls off. You know, at some point, every receiver is going to fall off, including Julio Jones. Is that this season or is it not? And I don't believe it is. Nothing on the field seemed like it last year. He's got the big money contract. They need him now as much as ever. They lost Austin Hooper. And yeah, in the two games without Hooper,

Julio had down performances in fantasy this last year, but that's not predictive in the slightest. I mean, this is a team that really needs him to be great. He looked great. They're paying him to be great. You know, I still think you're going to get the same old Julio. And so when I put him number two, I just, I think you're going to get more of the same of the last four years, which is a top five wide receiver guaranteed. Yeah, that's what I was going to throw out is.

I haven't seen anything from Julio that I expect his, that the play will fall off. And Austin Hooper was responsible for 14% of the targets, even with all the games that he missed. So is it possible that we see Julio Jones back at the 170 target range again? And I think that's in the range of outcomes. This isn't just Hoopers, all of Hooper's targets are going to Hayden Hearst, like lock that in. Like, Julio could actually.

see even more volume than he had that he did last year, which is, because he's done it before, it's just insane to think about the things that he has accomplished. Julio Jones since 2015 has finished as the wide receiver 2, 6, 5, 5, and 3. He is, he's just as consistent as it comes. He's also not, he's not getting hurt anymore.

I know that's been the refrain. He's getting hurt. He just is playing. Okay, but that's fine. I'm cool with that. If you finish at 5, 5 and 3 and then you're quote unquote getting hurt and he's missed one game in three seasons. I mean, that's not, we don't have to go to the same song and dance with Julio that we have in the past. He may limp his way out there, but he's limping his way to wide receiver 5, 5 and 3 is all I'm saying. All right. Let's go ahead and jump into a...

Our third wide receiver here, before you do that, I want to thank today's sponsor. Oh, it's a wonderful, wonderful friend of my family. That's Hello Fresh, Mouthwatering, seasonal recipes, pre-measured ingredients, delivered right to your door with Hello Fresh America's number one meal kit. They make cooking at home fun, easy, and affordable. And we were kind of talking about this before the show. It's just been great getting the Hello Fresh. We do it three times a week.

It's some variety. It's fresh produce. It's fresh ingredients. It's something different than I can't have peanut butter and honey every single time. Let's say there's only so many chicken nuggets a man can eat. That's what I'm saying. And they cut out all that stress that comes with meal planning because the other side of the coin is I've got to figure all that stuff out and go shop for it. Not the case with Hello Fresh. They cut all that stress out.

You can enjoy cooking, getting dinner on the table in 30 minutes or less, maybe even 20 minutes for some of their quicker recipe options. And there is something for everybody. You've got low-calorie meals, vegetarian, family-friendly recipes. Our kids eat it. That's not a foregone conclusion with most meals, but our kids really, really enjoy it. And they can help you eat more sustainably as well. To learn more about HelloFresh, go to HelloFresh.com. Very easy.

Hellofresh.com. All right. I want to talk about number three here. Devante Adams. Devante Adams. Last year, marred by injury? Yeah. Not the only time that's happened to Devante Adams. He actually hasn't played a full season in quite a while. Missed games in three straight years. Has been great on a per game basis. I think.

There is no doubting the talent and ability of Devante Adams being the number one target for Aaron Rogers. You know, you talk about the identity of the Packers transforming a little bit. Aaron Jones is big year, but past attempts have been at the same level for Aaron Rogers for the last three years. So, you know, I think we all acknowledge Adams is a great receiver, but will he stay healthy for a full season or will he, you know, and that's a tough thing to predict.

Yeah, it is hard to predict, but I think there are certain types of injuries that are scarier than others. And I'm not really scared off of Devante Adams' injury history. You know, you say he's missed some games or, you know, it's been a couple of years since he's played a full 16. He played 14 and 15 in 2017 and 2018. Yeah, the old Julio season. Exactly. And in those seasons, he still finished.

14 and third overall. He's a guy who's clearly a touchdown machine with Aaron Rogers. Those first couple of weeks in the new LaFleur system, Devante Adams wasn't as involved. I remember week one, week three, people were thinking, oh no, Devante Adams is toast. From that point on, the rest of the season on a per game basis, because he missed a chunk of games in the middle, he was still the wide receiver three in a points per game basis. So he was.

He was the same Devante Adams that was dominating in 2018, in 2019. I think he has as good a chance as anyone else of finishing, you know, as the number one wide receiver. Obviously, he would need to play 16 games for that, but I'm not, I'm just not scared of his specific injury history. I'm not either. I'm all in. I'm back in on Devante Adams. He's still the number one option. He had double digit targets in eight.

of the 12 regular season games that he played, both playoff games for the Packers. He had double-digit targets. Like, he is the man. And when he was on the field, he still was producing, there's, like, if there is a dip on Devante Adams, I'm happily buying that. And it's, like, I'm just thinking back, you know, when we're researching all these things, remembering what happened. Because I had Devante Adams in our League of Record, and it was.

It felt mostly bad, but that's because week one, which leaves a huge sting on your back. If someone comes out and they have a bad week one, you feel that for a lot of the season. Then the first game back from the injury, after missing a whole bunch of games where he was injured, he was bad when he came back that first game. So that also felt bad. So there's just like these narrative things that I think will leave lasting fantasy burns on some players, which could.

cause Adams to drop a little bit where I think he belongs. Like I have Adams as my number two wide receiver right now. Yeah, I think that we've spent a lot of time on this show talking about the Packers offense, Matt LaFleur, Aaron Rogers and his transformation. He's not the same fantasy producer that he used to be. Well, he will be now. They got funches. Sure. Yeah. But.

Adams fits into that category to me being that target hog of when Evans was alone in Tampa Bay to an extent. And we've seen, you know, I think they'd love to have more options than Devante Adams for Aaron Rogers. And I think some of the variability of these games where Aaron Rogers can disappear and they can still win brings a wider range of outcomes to Adams.

potential fantasy output then years passed, right? Because he did, you know, you mentioned week one, he finished 67th. He also had week three where he was 51st at the position. He had week 14 at 52 at the position. Those are not what you saw from Adams in 2018. So I think because of the transformation of the offense, you have a little bit of a wider range of outcomes. But when a guy is getting that level of target share, he's pretty safe for your offense. And last year, I know he missed a bunch of games.