THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in LA - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26

At home in the dome. That is not an understatement. Look, six of seven top 12 finishes last year. They were indoors. The dome. And this year, 14 of the Lions 17 games will be played indoors. That hair, the air conditioning, it will be flowing. The elements are the enemy of Jared Gop. But that's what's great about this year. He is inside. Look, last year, QB7, 4,500 yards. 30 passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. We looked at top five quarterbacks since 2018 who are not mobile guys. That's why this is bold. To get in the top five, it is extremely difficult. Brady, Stafford, Rogers, Matt Ryan, Barry. Brady, Brady. Look, an average of 4,700 passing yards and a TD rate of 6 plus percent. Guess who averages 6 plus percent on his touchdown or on his passing attempts for touchdowns?

when he's in doors. Jared Gough. Dude, you got it. You absolutely nailed it. New it. Reminder, 14 of 17 games are indoors. The Lions, look, he just said that a minute ago. Yeah, because I got to drive the point in, man. It's a, it's a speech-giving technique. Yeah, so nice you say it twice. Exactly. Look, right now, every Lions game. Every Lions game has a projected total of over 47 points. The over unders are absolutely six. Sick for the Detroit Lions. Now let's talk about MVP, right? He's a quarterback. Quarterbacks win. And you're the guy who says he's going to win the MVP. That's right. I am that guy. Unfortunately, look, he's a quarterback. Check 11 years in a row, a double digit win team. Yeah, that's going to happen. I'm going to check that box off for him.

The Lions are going to lead the NFL in scoring because did you hear this part? 14 of 17 games. No, look, like in all seriousness, it really matters to Jared Gott that he's playing indoors. And he, like, this is not anti-Jemir Gibbs by any means. Jamir Gibbs as an elite pass-catching weapon. This team can be high tea because of their coach. And yet. That dude up there, Dan Campbell, guns Mahoney. He respects the pass. Like Jared Goff is going to put up great numbers. And I'm calling for an outlier season. I'm calling for a top five finish and the league MVP. Thank you. Was he in, out of curiosity, I don't know this answer. Was he in my guy consideration? No, because this is called a bold prediction. Yeah, that's fair. This is not called.

A prediction. Okay. Okay, there's the bold. Got it. All right. Oh, my gosh. Why don't you take it down a notch, Dick? Yeah, I will. Tighten up them cheeks. It's called a bold prediction. However, this is one that I sadly actually believe in. So I will go so far as being bold and call this a prediction. No. Josh Allen goes from hero. to zero. Yeah, that's not going to come back to bite you. This is a really, really hard case to make against Josh Allen. I mean, over the last four years, Josh Allen was the quarterback one, the quarterback one, the quarterback two, and then the quarterback one. So you're like, and he's drafted as the quarterback one now. He should be as a hero. In most people's rankings, he's the quarterback one. I mean, there's, there's, it makes sense. He is a great.

passer and he is mobile. He has a lot of rushing upside. But I want to go over a couple of things. Now this bold prediction of Hero to Zero is really mid-year. We talked about earlier how players often have a great start to the season and a bad finish. Look at Patrick Mahomes last year. He was unbelievable the first half of the season. He looked like he was going to be winning everybody fantasy championships. Him and Kelsey were on fire. How many people had Patrick Mahomes last year? Did you draft Patrick Mahomes? I see people covering their eyes. Raise your hand. There's some people crying. Raise your hand if you won a championship with Patrick Mahomes last year. We got one over here. Two people in the world. Three liars. We have three liars in here. Incredible.

I mean, my point is like he was terrible at the back end of the season, and he's the greatest quarterback on the planet. This isn't to say Josh Allen isn't good. It's to say his season, his setup is going to work against him at the end of the season. I don't even mind drafting him. I would draft him where he is at ADP. But I'm going to look to unload him for value. Here's why. The first six weeks of the season, he's the quarterback six. The rest of the season is strength of schedule. He has the easiest schedule. He starts with the Cardinals. Yeah, baby.

Yeah, that's pretty good. The end of the year is brutal. It's the 26th schedule and the fantasy playoffs is even worse. But let's go over his setup for 2024. He has a new offensive coordinator midway through last year and Joe Brady. Joe Brady historically, we've brought this up a couple of times. Joe Brady's been in the NFL a lot and he always ends up getting exposed. Now, he didn't have time last year. It was great. They won a lot of games. But if you look at him as a passer with Joe Brady. Weeks 11 through 18, he went from a 70% completion percentage passer down to a 61% passer. He went from a touchdown pace of 32 touchdowns down to 24 with Joe Brady. Anthony Richardson's dreaming of that completion percentage. 4,400-yard pace to 4,100-yard pace. If you're drafting him as the quarterback 1 and he finishes as the quarterback 5, that's an L. Yeah. That is, it's not going to work. You have to have someone like

How it's been lately who's been lapping the field. And you're going to say, oh, Josh Allen will be fine. But it's not that easy. You have someone who lost so many of his targets. Stefan Diggs is gone. Gabe Davis is gone. They can be the butt of jokes. We could say Stephon Diggs. No, but it still matters. You just talk about total vacated targets and it's tough. 284 vacated targets for the wider receivers is the most associated with any quarterback drafted in the top five since 2018. In that sample. 70% of quarterbacks with just 100 plus vacated targets failed to meet their ADP. And this is the first time ever that the quarterback won in ADP, which is what Josh Allen is, has all of his wide receivers drafted outside of the top 40. It's never been done before. Then you look at that end of season schedule and specifically the playoff weeks where he plays New England outside in cold weather last year in New England and the fantasy.

playoffs. Josh Allen completed 50% of his passes. Anthony Richardson could hit that. Yeah. Zero touchdown passes. And then in week 17 in the championship, it's the Jets. Like he's not going, I really do think he's an okay pick. But the second half of the year, there is an easy and obvious path for him to be, let's say the quarterback eight. Why are you so mean? Yeah. I think something happened in my heart. I'm so mean. So look, I mean, Josh Allen's great player. I think he'll figure things out. I mean, he had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. If he repeats that, obviously he's going to be great. Now he's stupid. I would look stupid. This is a guy who's never had double-digit rushing touchdowns. It's not like Jalen Hertz, who yeah, he had 15 rushing touchdowns. Why aren't we talking about that? But Jalen Hertz as a starter's never not had double-digit rushing touchdowns. This was like, I have Josh Allen.

currently slated for nine rushing touchdowns, which would be the second highest of his career. And that's great. But that's a huge gap. And if you're drafting him number one, he gets off to a hot start, I guess really what I'm saying is if you got him and he has the hot start, capitalize and trade him. That's what I will be doing. Thoughts, Mike. It's persuasive. It's persuasive. It's dumb. Yeah. The hard part about fantasy football is you can't, like seeing something that hasn't happened, right? And then, and then once the, once history reveals itself and we look back and you go, oh, it was so obvious. Like when you call your shot on something like this, you sound like a lunatic. Yeah, that's fair. We'll see. We'll see if you're a lunatic here to zero.

The margin between genius and insanity is. How mad will you be if like the Saints have a great year? Oh my gosh. I'll be so upset. How upset are you going to be if they like run the table? If Josh Allen finishes the quarterback one, I'll be, I'll be, I'll be cheering. I'll be happy. I will have forgotten this bold take. But if the Saints are good. Oh my gosh. Oh, man. I'll shave my head. I will shave my head. I will shave my head. Oh, we're back to this. If the Saints win 10 games, I will save my head on air. Oh, no, that won't take long. The only problem with me saying that is now people are rooting for to sell, and I don't like that. To shave your head, that's just like a light breeze. Right, right, right. I just, I just, knocks them all out. I use a towel and I just scrub hard. Then it's gone. You guys want to do some mailbag? Oh, yeah, we do. Y'all ready? Y'all ready for the drop? Mike, you getting them ready?

Can we get some lights? Can we get some lights on the house? All right. Mailbag. That was an all-timer. That was outstanding. It was harmonized. All right. We're going to do some live mailbag here on the show before we give away this beauty. Oh, is that a Papa Josh call out? Don't do that. No, we don't need. Papa Josh doesn't need any attention. Oh, man. All right. How you doing? What's your name? Carlos. Carlos, what are you got for? Good evening, gentlemen. Good evening. My question is, in a dynasty rookie draft, how do you decide between best player available and a position of need? Did you hear that? Yeah, so that was in a dynasty rookie draft, best player available or position of need? How do you make that decision? What is the differentiator for you? Well, I mean, I can tell you from maybe, look, maybe this is just my experience. It is not, Mike. But.

Many years in the first round, I have gone, I got to get this running back. I got the position, I am so shallow. Yeah, sure, there's this, what, top five NFL draft pick, Jalen Waddle. Sure, but you know what? I really need a running back or I really need a quarterback. And it has been a disaster each and every time in Dynasty. You got to follow the money. Look, there's just, it's all about probability. Of course, not every first round wide receiver is going to be a hit. We know that. We've seen the NFL long enough. But the probability of a first round wide receiver being awesome in the NFL versus a bust for fantasy football, it's a good bet to make. And so it's, and then in the long term, once that player turns on,

they're so much more valuable than this like RB2 on your bench. I just think the burn hurts more when you feel resigned to take a position versus the players that you believe in. Never. If it does work out, okay, it worked out. But if it doesn't, you know you made the mistake at the time because you wanted, you had a conviction about another player, but you felt like you had to fill a gap. I never, I never do it anymore. I take the best player available on the board. Yeah. Regardless. of position team needs are obviously very very important they're the devil they are the they are the devil in the sense that like i mean i've done this i drafted tray sermon way too high because i was desperate for a running back you drafted royce freeman way too high because you were you were desperate for running back i drafted nobody because i had no picks yeah when you're saying do i draft team need or best player we're just talking about running back we're just like i need a running back and so it's like do you overdraft them and i

promise you this. This is the real takeaway. A bad running back will never be a good pick. I mean, that's just the truth. Like, if you draft a crappy running back, it's not going to help your team. So, so don't do that if you don't believe in that player. If you actually don't believe in them, don't push them over a wide receiver you believe in. It won't work in the end. Best player available is the way to go. Always. I've never made a draft mistake. Next question. You can't make mistakes. I've never been in a draft. You miss every shot you don't take. All right.

Bonjour guys. Bonjour. This is Buckwheats from Germany. Germany. All right. Down the street. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Shout out to my dynasty league. Okay. Like, did you come here just for the show? Yeah, flew in yesterday. What time? What time is in Germany right now? 6 a.m. All right. Make some noise. Oh, the man from Germany. Yeah, that I'll do it. Thank you. With the crowd control. What's your question, my friend? All right, so do you guys have like any weird rituals or superstitions that you swear help you win you a week? Do we have any weird superstitions or things we do? Yes. Yeah. There are things that have developed over the years. There are things that exist in this world in the metaphysical. And one of the things they work every single time. Yeah, one of the things that has happened over time for whatever reason.

is that oftentimes specifically Jason and myself, because we've had this divisional rivalry for years. It is insufferable. And the second the week starts, for whatever reason, we will, like if something goes wrong, one play, one moment, we'll congratulate the other person on the victory. Instantly. Yeah. And sometimes we've taken that to like a pre-congratulations card or gift. I have, I have. I have gotten a card and put money in it because no one wants to get. Don't give people cards without money. Okay, don't do that. That's not going to get you a win. No, you got to open that card. You got to have money. If it's like a birthday or a victory card. Yeah, I've gotten a card before the week began. Like, congrats on your victory this week with a $20 bill inside. I find, I really do find this. And this is anecdotally scientifically proven that people that talk a lot of trash the week leading up.

to a matchup, say the biggest loser who's here and is named that for a reason, you freaking loser, they end up losing. But alternatively, if like when I went up against Brooks in the championship matchup, instead decide to dote on him and buy him pizza delivered and give him gifts. Did he buy you a pizza? He didn't. And I won. So treat your opponents with kindness. You talk all that trash post victory. Okay, don't hear what I'm not saying. Be a monster. But wait until you're a victor first. Kill him with kindness. Kill him with kindness. And pizza. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. Give it up. Bonjour. Next question. Thank you. You're not. I forgot. What's your name? Jose. Jose. Jose. Oh. Jason's black polo. Very nice. He's wearing Jason's black polo. I'm going to be Jason for Halloween.

I was missing it. Yeah, I'm pretty much got to get up right now. Shout out to the Toe Clan. I just want to let you guys know. So my question is, if you only got to keep one my guy, the my guyiest my guy, who would it be? Okay. Oh, all right. Keeping one my guy of the three my guys, the my guysiest. Yeah, maybe Kyle Pitts is sneaking in for Andy. Wait, you didn't make me do that, right? No, no. I can jump in first because I know it's, for me, it's Kyler Murray. I just might, my faith. that Kyler Murray is going to come through for fantasy football. A smattering of applause. Thank you so much. The Kyler managers. I really believe in Kyler where, like, I mean, I believe in all of my guys, but certain players carry higher risk than the others. And Kyler, to me, is he is in that perfect spot of low risk, incredible reward. You're going to be booing when you're playing against Kyler Murray.

So that's my my guy. So I completely understand that, right? We always have different levels of confidence in our my guys. And sometimes we're just really sure of one or two and then we're searching for others. My my guy is my guy. Yeah. I'm going to go with Devon A. Chan, but it is, it's not because I have extreme confidence. I am confident, but I'm much more confident in the. the floor and ceiling outcome of like Isaiah Pacheco. I don't I don't think he's safer he's safer but when it comes to like who's really the my guyiest one it's like I'm I'm willing to take the risk I'm willing to go and say like I don't want to be burned if I'm wrong here and so I'm I'm all in and it's really one of those things where early in the off season I just went back and forth like I was a point where I was like I am I am too afraid to take this guy and I really

I came around and I said, I don't want to be the one, because I believe in him. I think he's super talented. I watched him dominate last year. And if he comes out and dominates, I will be so mad at myself if I didn't just follow my belief. So that's the, so he is like a, my guy. My guy. My guy. Are you doing Matthew McConaughey right now? Matthew McConaughey did me. My God. All right. Yeah, my people. I think, can you guess mine? Calvin Ridley. Yeah, it's Calvin Ridley. Yeah, yeah. We have a whiteboard at the office and we start jotting names down. And sometimes they have a little lock next to them when you, when you have a strong conviction. And Ridley's just been down there, the whole off season. He really has. I mean, for me, it was Evans with that conviction last off season. So we'll find out if I'm dumb or not. Yeah, peel back the, the curtain a little bit. He went to CVS. He bought nail polish.

And he wrote it on the board of nail polish. Super weird, but that's how it's strong. You ruined our board. Yeah, I don't know why I did that. Got to get a new whiteboard. Thank you, sir. Thank you for your question. Thank you for coming. Next question. Hey, ballers. How's it going? What's your name? Good. Chris from Jacksonville, Florida. What's that, Chris? Yeah. Got a keep trade cut nasty boys edition for you. Oh, you're doing like them nasty. With Jerry Judy, Jacoby Myers, and Hollywood. Oh, gross. All right, nasty boys. Oh, no. Oh, Andy. Oh, look at this. Oh, look at this. Oh. For the podcast listening audience. And please turn around for our live audience. This man is wearing a shirt. I got golden ticketed and I got a t-shirt. This man is wearing a shirt with Andy Holloway's face, missing a tooth. Yeah, you get both sides.

No? It's not happening. Okay. All right. Nasty boys edition. All right. That is a bright t-shirt. Yeah. That is bright. Keep trade cut. There's one dark spot on it. Yeah. It's where there. These are nasty boys. Jerry Judy, Jacoby Myers, Hollywood Brown. Hollywood Brown is actually another one of those hot starters, but he's injured going into the year. Yeah. I mean, did you hear they starting to call the three whiteouts in Kansas City, Fahrenheit 451? Did you see that? Real. No. Those are they burning books? Those are three numbers. Oh, because you got Rashi Rice and Hollywood and have they read the book? It doesn't seem like a great idea. They might want to catch up on some literature. Hollywood is nasty. Yeah. Jacoby Myers. Like if you, if you already think Devante's risky, Myers with those quarterbacks, nasty. Yep.

And Jerry Judy has never been nasty. Yeah, this is gross, man. Why did this question get in here? Yeah, you don't have any better questions? Um, I, you know, Hollywood is the, is the clear best player of this group, but I feel like you have to cut him. Yeah. Because you're not drafting an injured guy to start. I think Judy's a better player. You think Jerry Judy is a better player than Hollywood Brown? Yeah. Based on what? I think the opportunity. College film? Like. I just think Hollywood, we're already seeing the problem with Hollywood. Like the last two years has been injury riddled and then one play in. Like at least they gave Judy the money and he's going to be on the field every play. Yeah. Jacobi Myers is the best player of this bunch. Look, Jacobi Myers is the best player of this bunch. He's, look, it fell off at the end of the year with Aiden O'Connell. Do we have three different answers? We do. I'm keeping Jacob Myers. Nasty. Look, Gardner Men's shoe and that magnificent.

A mustache will do enough for Jacobi Myers. And then I will trade Hollywood Brown and Jerry Judy is my cut. I actually think I'm going to keep Jacobi Myers as well. Yeah, you are because he's the best of the three. I will trade Jerry Judy and I'll cut Hollywood because I didn't believe he was going to be good enough before the injury to draft a player who is actively injured going into the season. So I'll let someone else grab Hollywood. And I'll be that guy that keeps Jerry Judy despite everything he's ever done. Hopes and dreams. All right. Thank you for the question. Appreciate it. And no thank you for the shirt. No, that shirt was fantastic. All right. We have one more big thing to do here on the episode, which is to give away a signed Cooper Cup helmet and a signed Cooper Cup jersey, which will also come along with this.

And we're going to do that. Pristine auction for. Yeah, shout out to pristine auction. And all the stuff that we've been throwing out and all the stuff that they donated for the silent auction for Fantasy Cares. So big friends of the show. Here's what we're going to do for the giveaway. We already gave it away. We already gave it away. Because we threw a lot of stuff out there. And if you caught a hat, there is one hat that has a golden star under the bill. And if you have that hat, You are the winner. People are checking. The giveaway. Everyone check your bill. Do you have one? You got it? You got the golden star, bro? The golden star? We've got a winner over here. All right. But we want the hat back. Hey, a number 10. Number 10. Congratulations. No, no, no. Oh, no. Hold on. No, stay in your seat. At the end of the show, you've just come up and we'll get you the stuff. Again, round of applause. Yeah, it's a pristine auction.

Can I get a round of applause for Sleeper? I know why you play on Sleeper. They sponsored this event. They got this event going. And appreciate everybody that participated in the silent auction, ballers auction.com. You can keep bidding on that silent auction up till 11.30 p.m. tonight. And all proceeds go to fantasy cares. Yes. And so thank you to anybody that has done that. And thank you all. Yes. Yes. Thank you. We love you, Foot Clan. You guys... 2,000 shows over the last 10 years. 2,000 shows. Thank you. Yeah, glasses up to the Foot Clan. A toast to the Foot Clan. Thank you all out there. We will be back in a few minutes to come out and do a live Q&A. Anything you have, any question you have, fantasy or not. We'll be back out here in a few minutes to spend that time with you.

Jason, I believe it might be time to pick up that T-shirt can in one more time. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at theFF Ballers.