Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early Breakouts & Busts

Straight out of the UDK. So this is one we all agree on. This is one we all agree on. It's one that we really liked last year. And there were a lot of reasons why. It's Willie Sneed. You got that need for Sneed. One of the things, if you were around in the off season, early off season, we did a show where we say, you know, what are things we want to remember from this year so that going into 2017, we can become better as analysts, as fantasy football players.

And one of those things for me was to realize that sometimes we're a year early on a guy and that the guys we liked the year prior that didn't really break out the way we wanted. They did that last year.

And so coming into this year, Willie Sneed could be one of those guys that's just, we were one year early on him. What happened with Willie Sneed, and he was still great this last year as far as just overall production in the 15 games he played. But he moved from the outside. He was, you know, in that, for all intents of purposes, his, you know, quote, rookie season, which was two years ago. He was on the outside, 70 plus percent of the time. This year he moved to the slot 70 plus percent of the time as Michael Thomas came in.

Well, now, Michael Thomas. Now you have the, you know, the departure of Brandon Cooks, and Ted Ginn is not going to be able to fill that role. So there's seven missing touchdowns, 117 missing targets. I am not necessarily saying that those things are going to elevate Willie Sneed to a different level as far as, you know, he's going to soak all those in. Drew Breeze is spreading the ball around. But Drew Breeze, just like last year, he made two wide receiver ones. He's going to make.

two wide receiver ones, and if not, he's going to make a wide receiver one and a wide receiver high two. And that's going to be Willie Sneed. Willie Sneed over the last two years combined, playing only 15 games each season. You know, his total yards, 1879, that's just behind Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper, Alan Robinson, AJ Green, Pierre Garcana, head of Randall Cobb, Stefan Diggs, Jeremy Macklin. I mean, some of those guys have missed games in that time. But then you talk about the talent.

Do you know how many guys, so we, you know, the gold standard for wide receiver, you know, just looking at their routes, that's reception, that's Matt Harmon. That's why we've got it in the ultimate draft get this year. Do you know how many guys of our top 50 wide receivers scored above average rate in success against coverage in every single route? How many wide receivers do this? I know the answer because I'm looking right at it. The answer is one.

There was only one in the entire league, and his name was Willie Sneed. He is a good wide receiver. He's a good wide receiver. He hasn't changed it. With a great quarterback and an opportunity that's left. Willie breakout, maybe. Hey, look, I'm going to put you on the spot before we get into the bus. My name is Willie. Listen. Willie Steen. I think people already, I think they're already listening. I think they've seen the ultimate draft kit because here's the thing. Willie Sneed is going ahead of Stefan Diggs right now.

Willie Sneed is going right where Jameson Crowder is going. So this or that. Oof. Stefan Diggs. Willie Sneed. Which one are you taking? Man. For the draft price right now, I'm going with whoever's later and that's Diggs. They're basically the same. They're basically the same. They're basically the same. They're back to back wide receivers. I'm going Willie Sneed. So you'll take the upside two versus the possible breakout one. Correct. You're doing terrible things to me over here, making me go. You can never decide anything. Name one.

I would go digs. Brooks, who do you got? Diggs or Sneed? I got the need. Oh, yes. I was hoping you'd go. I would take digs. I was hoping you'd go Crowder because that's a lot easier for it. That's neat. Mm-hmm. Yeah. All right. All right, let's move on. Bus. I waited. Like a professional. Sure. That's what I am. All right. Let's get into the busts. Early bust. Everybody wants to know who a...

An early avoidance candidate might be. For me, for my rankings, what I see in the average draft position, I'm going to make the case for Carlos High. Now, Mike, am I correct in the fact that you still believe in Carlos High? I still firmly believe in the player. The draft price is a little sketchy to me, but I still believe in Hyde despite all of what's happening. You'll get to a lot of that stuff, though.

Right now, Carlos Hyde is still a third round pick in fantasy. Yeah, that's a little rough. And you can believe in the talent. You know, I think he has talent. I think he's a very talented runner when he's been on the field. Let me give you the timeline that pushes me towards Carlos Hyde the bust for 2017. Preseason last year, concussion, week six last year, shoulder strain missed a couple of games coming off of, you know, that was an injury plague 2016, coming off at 2015 where he was hurt as well with the foot stretch fracture.

But let's turn to this year. The 49ers that go out, they sign Mike Shanahan or Kyle Shanahan, and they bring in John Lynch. So a new regime. In fact, when you listen to John Lynch talk about Carlos Hyde, he says, hey, there's a new regime in town. He has to prove himself. They asked him. A lot of people thought Carlos Hyde, maybe he's on the outs. They went and they talked to John Lynch. And it was, his response was filled with equivocation. It was filled with, I hope, he might.

We think it wasn't something that made you think Carlos Hyde was firmly cemented as the one. We think he can be a highly productive player. We're eager to see it. But there have been questions throughout camp about the scheme fit for Carlos Hyde. If you fast forward now to the draft, Kyle Shanhan handpicks Joe Williams in the fourth round trades up for him, gets permission to do so. The team trades for Capri Bibs. Somebody they obviously felt fit their system.

brings in Tim Hightower. Spend a ton of money on Kyle Eustach. Yeah. OTAs have hit now. Carlos Hyde beat reporters are watching the 49ers and they say, slowest and most indecisive running back on the field. Yeah. And there's a lot of running backs on the field. They said his vision. Tim Hightower's there. Yeah. The vision isn't matching up to the scheme so far. Now that could be whatever. Maybe it's taking him some time to find his way through the system.

In his defense, Kyle Shannon has come out and said, it's not all about the system. If you're a good runner, you're going to be a good runner. But it's not turning the right direction. So is he the number one running back to start the year for San Francisco? I think it's possible. Will he be traded? Will he be cut? Will he lose the job? I think that's a possibility. And to me, a third round pick in fantasy draft cannot be filled with words like we think and hope and might. You need to know what you're getting with Carlos Heights. So it's too shaky for me.

I think leaning on Carlos Hyde with a third round pick is like trying to grow a garden in an Arizona summer. It's your likelihood of it happening. It's possible. It can be done. But the likelihood of you ending up burned is pretty good. I was going to say I did this once. And I put in a lot of work. I made a garden. And we had a really nice garden grow. And I, you know, I looked the other way for about two days.

And it was scorched earth. It was gone. And honestly, that's what's going to happen to Carlos Hyde. No, I do agree with that. Carlos Hyde is a talented guy, but the best that talent has ever gotten you is a running back to finish. His other years, he's been inconsequential. He's an injury risk. So what you're hoping, if you're drafting him in the third round, you're saying, okay, I don't buy any of this camp garbage about Joe Williams and all the other people. I don't buy it. I'm banking on Carlos Hyde. He's going to be.

great for the Niners who aren't that great and he's not a good pass catcher and I mean it's like what what is the what's the real upside what's the real upside like if everything goes right I think you're going to get an RB2 when I hear Carlos Hyde not right you're going to is he's going to drop off when I hear hiding the third John Stewart in the eighth I just am confused yeah that's that's weird it is yeah

All right. All right. Which one of you guys wants to throw your bust out there? I'm very interested in both. I can go. I'll go last. All right. Jason, you have a name that we haven't talked about a ton on the show, probably because we're not as bullish as others, but who's your bust candidate? Well, yeah. When I was looking up, you know, I'm trying to find, I'm looking through the ADP and who doesn't belong where they're being drafted. And one name that stuck out to me like crazy is the hype of a rookie.

in O.J. Howard. Oh, he's going to be a bust if you're taking him as the 11th tight-in off the board. I mean, I can virtually guarantee that. I'm not saying O.J. Howard is a bad player. By any means, the guy is a beast. He's a physical freak. He could end up going into the Hall of Fame one day, just like Greg Olson. But just like Greg Olson, you know, he's not coming in and lighten the world on fire year one.

Tight-ins just don't usually do that. I mean, the best one in the last decade was Gronk. That was great. I mean, if you're saying he's going to be a generational player, but if you look at what Gronk did in college, it was basically that. If you look at what O.J. Howard, he gronked out in college. If you look at what O.J. Howard did in four years, he caught seven touchdowns. But, but Jason.

That was the scheme that he was in, and it's not his fault. Like, sure, okay, it's not his fault. That's what you always hear. I'm just going to leave. You can have the conversation. That's what you always hear is that, you know, it's like, well, he wasn't asked to be used in that way. So he's going to come in, and in his rookie year as a tight end, be asked to do that and succeed in the NFL when no other rookie tight ends virtually do this. Let's say he has.

Maybe not the best. You know, you got your Gronks, your Aaron Hernandez. But in the last decade, let's say he finishes with the fifth best rookie season over the last 10 years. He will surpass Germain Gresham. Germain Gresham is the current fifth best, and he finished that year at the tight end 21. That's not good. That is not good at all. And then you've got the fact that look.

Cameron Brate is there. They didn't go all in Joku, you know, where they draft the guy and then kick Gary Barnish to the curb. They actually drafted him and said, okay, now we got two good tight ends. You know what? There's a rapport with Cameron Brayt already. Cameron Brate must have been watching the draft going, what is going on? Why is O.J. Howard dropping? No, no, no, no. Because this wasn't the plan for Tampa. No. They got a great player. But that wasn't the plan for Tampa Bay. Now you do have Brate there. I'm with you on that. I think.

I think what's hard with Howard, too, if you draft O.J. Howard, you're buying in, which makes him hard to cut. Yeah, you're not going to want to cut him in week two or three. It's easy to cut Zach Miller. It's not easy to cut a rookie with the pedigree and the excitement of O.J. Howard. I couldn't believe where he's being drafted. You said 11th tight-in? Yeah, he's the 11th tight-in off the board. That's a guy you're saying, I'm going to start him. Yeah. All right, Mike.

All right. I think you've got the hottest of hot takes here on the bust train. He's in our UDK bus too, right? What's funny about this player is he's going to demonstrate this year how you finish as a wide receiver two, but you're still a bust. Because he's going to be a two. And that's Brandon Cooks, who is going at the back of the second round people all around.

the world are excited all around the world. Brandon Cooks. He's going to a Hall of Fame level quarterback where they score a ton of points. And that's where he came from. I mean, he's making at best a lateral move. And he's going at the back of the seconds. Here's the problem with Brandon Cooks. He's also been charted out by Matt Harmon. And he scores very poorly.

in success in routes run. His contested catch rate 50%. If someone is blanketed on him, he's not catching the ball. He was surpassed by a rookie to be the wide receiver one in New Orleans. In three years in New Orleans, Brandon Cooks has seen double-digit targets in a game six times. Three years. It took Michael Thomas one year to get to five of those games. And on top of that, New Orleans said,

Yeah, we don't need you. We're going to shift you out of time. We're not going to pay you. That's because of Willie. I will grant this. This is the Patriot Magic, right? This is Bill Belichick wants this guy. So obviously he's going to turn him into a stud. As much credit as we give Bill Belichick, they have made some very poor moves with wide receivers. I know they hit on Randy Moss, but they've also. They didn't hit on Brandon Lloyd. They've whiffed several times. But now.

I'm just going to break down some simple mathematics for everyone. I look at target share. Andy, Andy's very intrigued. I know. Don't let your eyes glaze over with the math. Mathematics. The three, uh, what is it? The three M's. Yeah, whatever. Great story. I thought you were going Pythagorean theorem or something. Yes. A square. Way off. Since 2013, Gronk has averaged a 22% target share. Julian Edelman, 26% in that time. Running backs.