Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Upside Players - Podcast for 7/18

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the podcast. It's the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, if you're nasty. Just two best friends talk about the NFC North. Oh, a couple of... And a bear, the cardboard bear. Oh, yeah. I mean, what an episode for Jay Grizz to be a part of. That was not planned, but you are making a good point. Yeah, I mean, we've got a Packers fan in the house, a Bears fan in the house, and then a couple of guys who don't care about either of those teams.

Welcome in. It is Saturday, July 18th. Thank you for joining us. Like I said, today is the NFC North. We've been breaking out all the divisions, going over the important players, sneaking in little nuggets, little truth bombs. But we're going to have a good time today. Reminder, Ultimate Draft Kit, it's available, and the mock draft tool is out. It's out on Android. It's out on iPhone. It's not on the web. Just yet, we are working on that, but it is available in the app, ultimatedraftkit.com. Make sure you go check that out. That's the only draft tool you need to be prepared to dominate your draft coming up in August.

The Megalist Show. And reminder about that, we will be live. The Fantasy Footballers Live, The Megalist Show, presented by SiriusXM, sponsored by GMC and PetSmart. Ooh, look at the script. Oh, look at that. Fancy. Got some footage, the B-roll going there on the YouTube. So we will be doing a live recording of the podcast Friday, August 28th, live at the Van Buren in Phoenix, Arizona. There are a handful of tickets. BallersLive.com if you want to join us. It's going to be a party. It's going to be awesome. It's going to be a Megala. Show. No, no, no. It will be Megala.

Yes. It's such a good time, and you guys can come down and be part of the show. Make it on the recording. Get some questions answered as well. And we've always got some shenanigans there, some special moments. Yes. So make sure you're a part of it. It's always a good time. The quick question of the day. Did we tell them the URL? I didn't listen. Yeah, BallersLive.com. There you go. Jason and I are about, no, not about to, because I guess when you're hearing this, we're already there. That is true. As of this recording, we're about to go to the airport because we are going to New York.

To Fanatics Fest, where we will be hanging out if you see us. Come say hi. And then Sunday, we're going to be talking to Dart, Scad, and Eli. That's right. Some giants of New York. Anyways, quick question. Andy in Australia. Oh, bonjour. Hey, Ballers. As a redraft league commissioner, how do I deal with three inactive league members? They set their lineups. They pay their entry fee. But they're completely offline in every other way. They don't speak in the league chat. Don't send trade offers. They don't accept any. They don't even decline the trade offers. Can I just boot them out of the league?

Is this worse than true inactive managers? Because a true inactive manager, you're not paying your league dues. You're not setting your lineup. You can't. You're just like, well, you're out of the league. We're going to go to footlandleagues.com or the Discord of the footballers to find some cool people, fill out those rosters. But if someone is really paying their dues, setting their lineups every week, what do you do? I mean, I guess that's what the question is. The piece of advice that I would say is this time of year in the offseason is when I would text them and just say, hey, I want to make sure you want to be in this league.

You don't usually. I mean, just say this. Just it's doing it for them. You're like, hey, do you? You know, you don't have to be in this league. If you don't want to be in this year, I just I'm checking with everybody. You didn't, you know, talk a lot or or you weren't very active in the league. Are you sure you want to do it this year? And then you do that every year until they get the hint or they change. That's the only piece of advice I think I could have. Would you be willing to boot them? Yeah, I'm willing to do it.

It's it's what you got to talk to him first. And it's like, hey, guys, it's just it's it's frustrating to have three. I mean, what is that? So one fourth if it's a 12. Yeah. Like that. You have to be able to talk to people and make trades. And it would be easier to boot them if you already had someone lined up. If you've got, you know, a person or two that are like, man, I really want to be in the league. And you're like, man, I got these three. That's another kind of feather in the cap where you can go and say, hey, I've got someone who wants to be in the league.

They really want to be a part of it. I don't know how involved you are because you don't you're not very active. Right. Might make it easier to let them say no. That's a tough call. Alternatively. Oh. You are going to leave the league. You're just done. And then you start a new league that with about seven other players or eight, whatever the number is. And then you create a new league, add three to that. And you just you're done with this league. Yeah. This is this is just some good old fashioned communication, which if they don't respond to that, then go ahead and boot them out.

All right. It's been 20 minutes. You said nothing. Oh, oh, yeah. The Camara news, if you didn't hear that at the end of the mock draft. Well, a couple of days ago, Alvin Camara did rework his contract and he will be sticking around. He will be part of the Saints. I mean, that's what I assumed all offseason. I wasn't quite as high on Travis A. Chan Jr. as the rest of people, just because I assumed that Camara, who is a Saint, like he is a quick Dorothy Mantis. Such a such a good man. But he is like a quintessential New Orleans Saint.

He is, you know, he's been there his whole career. Yes. He's a leader. He's been there through the ups and the downs. And so I assumed he's going to finish his career there later in the offseason. It seemed like, oh, man, maybe they are really wanting to move on. And I was I got excited for that. But he'll be there and make problems for fantasy. I thought he was a Saint for fantasy football. Oh, he's not going to do anything on his own to be important. Right. And whatever he does do and he's not going to do, you know, a ton.

He's not going to be in a 50 50 timeshare. But whatever he does do comes at the expense of someone that you want to start for fantasy. That's fair. Moving on. Let's get divisional. We're talking the NFC North. A reminder, this is we're doing like a general overview, you know, things that have changed for these teams. And just taking a quick look at the players, how we're feeling. Last year, the Chicago Bears. From worst to first. Eleven and six. What a year for the Chicago. Then there was the Packers, the Vikings and the Lions actually tied at nine. It to me, the Vikings at nine and eight still.

It's mine. Still blows my mind. I think you're lying. Right. Exactly. No way. Of like the way that the season is thought about because of how things went with J.J. McCarthy. You're like, well, they they must have won like three games. Like, no, they they won nine. They actually won the same amount of games as the Green Bay Packers who were second. They just the Packers had a tie. So they have fewer losses, which is also funny because this is a complete inverse of 2024. 2024 was the Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears. Then this last year, Bears, Packers, Vikings, Lions. And this division for what for what felt like this is a very easy division to predict last year.

Yeah. This this division is so close that it could genuinely go in every single possible direction. I don't think that there's which means like the Bears who finished first. They are, I think right now, everyone's love affair in fantasy. Everyone is excited about them. The fans are very excited. They could absolutely finish fourth in this division, not because they're not good, because everyone someone has to. Right. Like the Lions, who are a really good team, just finished last in this division. It's it's a brutal, brutal division. They have the most combined wins in the last two years of any divisions by a wide margin.

They have 83 wins in the last two years. The next closest is 75. That's not bad. Well, let's start at the top. The Chicago Bears, they were 11 and six last year. Their Vegas projected win total was eight and a half. I'm Jay Grizz. There's so much Jay Grizz on the screen. I'm so happy that maybe I'm not. I don't know. But people usually really love when Al hits that drop. Right. And interrupts us with Jay Grizz's moment. And I guess I am happy that people like it because I hate it. I just I just hate it so much. I get like usually all those silly little things that give me a little piece of joy.

I'm just always annoyed. But at least people like it. Yeah. And also, we it still catches us off guard. I know it's going to happen. I didn't. I didn't see it coming. We are dumb. Seven and four in one score games. It was their first playoff win since 2010. This year, Vegas has them projected at nine and a half. Very, very strong offense. Defensively, not the best. 29th in pressure. 29th in yards per game. But they had the third most turnovers. Which this that when you're saying, Jay, this is a team that could go from first and then finish in last place of their division.

You don't get those turnovers. You can't be. Your defense can't be that. Yeah, they have to have thrive the way they did. Their defense step up. I think they had some injuries last year. I mean, every team does. But it's a well-coached team. Ben Johnson has proven that he is who they thought he was going to be. Yes. And a very exciting offense. There's obviously also changeover at the offensive coordinator. Yeah, sort of. Well, okay. Yes. Because Ben Johnson is the head coach. It's like when you're like, hey, McVay has a new OC. Sure. I'm like, yeah. I don't know that I really care about it.

Is this the new spritz? Oh, yeah. Oh, the cologne. Declan Doyle. Yeah, the cologne of Ben Johnson is the new Sean McVay. Yes. So press Taylor next year is going to be, you've touched Ben Johnson. Come run our team. We'll see. But it's going to take the Bears being really, really great again. Now, I will say this. It is tough. Every year there's a team that goes from last to first. Every year. And last year it was the Bears. They are legitimately good. However, they had the last place schedule. This year they've got the sixth hardest schedule. So it's going to be a different world for them.

Instead of being like the underdog Cinderella story, the new kids on the block, now they're going to be expected to do good, and they're coming at it from a different perspective. And sometimes that really has an impact on the ability to perform. You know, now the pressure is on them. All right, let's start with Caleb Williams. Solid for fantasy purposes. Not necessarily the most, the great news on the accuracy. He completed 58% of his passes. Only Shadour and J.J. McCarthy were worse among qualified quarterbacks. He was dead last in completion percentage versus zone, dead last in off target rate. I mean, it's weird, man.

It is. Like how prolific the offense was to have a quarterback. How talented he is. Right. When I went back and I watched his film, it's so weird for a guy who's so good to constantly be so bad. Like his arm strength, his playmaking ability, just his physical attributes is really, they are special. I mean, we knew that coming in. That's why he was drafted number one overall. But then it's like, what happened? Like every fourth play is like, wait, what are you doing? And it's tough because he can go boom for your fantasy team in both directions. And like looking back over the game log,

you have some just absolute monster games, especially he closed out the season as a QB9, QB4, and QB11. But you have just, like you have two games of single digit points from a quarterback. So where are you projecting, Caleb? Like are we going to improve? Do you think this is kind of who he is? I do think he improves. Obviously, as a young player, he should be getting better. More time in the system, more time with the players. You add in the fact that this is a very, very, like two-thirds of his weapons last year, of his prime, Luther Burden and Mr. Loveland, were rookies.

Right. Like they should get better as NFL players. They should step up. But DJ Moore did not do anything special on his own. He barely broke tackles, which is like what he was so good at last year. So I think just simply the offensive weapons getting better, Mr. Loveland getting better and healthy to start the year. Luther Burden coming into year two. And then Rome, I believe, is a very good wide receiver, a true alpha one. I'm worried about the foot, but I've read things recently that make me realize like maybe that's overblown. I think the last thing that I saw like statistically with this injury is production should not take a hit at all.

Okay. From meeting back to whatever his peak is. However, the only thing that does happen is a little bit higher re-injury risk going forward. Okay. For the first month of the season, Rome was the wide receiver three. We talked about a bit on the mock draft that we just did from weeks six through 13. He was the wide receiver 38. Really, really plummeted. Let's stay with the wide receivers. So you're, we have a gang fight. Yeah. Like the Chicago Bears for fantasy purposes. The Rome people, the Burden people. What is the weapon that you have with Luther Burden? Because I feel like with Rome, it's like a lead pipe.

Okay. You know, it's like a, it's not a speed weapon. You know, it's a big, powerful weapon. That's, that's the, that's the Rome of Dunes. What is the Luther Burden weapon? Luther Burden, you know, the, the butterfly knife. Oh, definitely. It's the butterfly. Absolutely. But it's still not that. No, it's not that big. And then in the end. That's not a knife. Right. And then it's like, oh, who's going to win? And then Mr. Loveland's got a gun. It's just like, all right. We, we know how this plays out. But yeah, I, I like this. I like this gang fight mentality here.

So let's get into our gang fight. Rome of Dunes, a V Luther Burden. Okay. So Rome, like we said, he, he started hot Luther Burden. He was banged up in training camp, you know, around there. So it took him longer to get integrated. And the truth is production wise, he didn't do a ton. Yeah. We do have a weeks 14 through 17, where he had a 21% target share. And in that time, Rome was hurt. And Mr. Loveland was down at 17%. And then they got into the playoffs and Colson Loveland said, give me that. Yeah. 28% target share for a rookie tight end in the playoffs is, that's wild.

That is wild where I believe that's the, that's the signal of the answer to all Chicago Bears pass catchers. It is, it's Colson Loveland. And there is the, the slight bugaboo of 42% of Mr. Loveland's points came in the fourth quarter. Cause if you recall, the Chicago Bears had a, I mean, probably because of the defense, but they had a habit of getting, uh, getting manhandled. And then in the fourth quarter, having a miracle comeback, uh, you know, often on the back of Colson Loveland, his draft price, he's going in the fourth. He's the tight end three. I think it's very worth taking on the, the, the risk for the upside for the wide receivers.

I, we talked on the mock draft, the Luther Burns ADP. I, it's just so high and leaving little to no margin for error. He's drafted 10 wide receiver spots ahead of Rome as of this recording, which that's fine. So now, so part of the argument, that's fair. When, when you're talking about which guy you want, which guy could break out. Cause it's really important, like for fantasy football, for, for the footland that are making their decision. And it's really important to get this right. Obviously we don't have the answer cause we have two different answers. One of us or neither of us has it.

Um, but the argument I think for both of us is talent of the player and really not burden. It's talent of Rome. Right. I think that the reason that you love, because we both like the talent of Luther Burton. Yes. He looked great on the field. He has some, um, really nice metrics behind the scenes. Yeah. His targets per route run and yards per route run are incredible. They are really incredible. Now on the flip side, he only had two really good games and everything else was kind of worthless, but it really comes down to what do you believe in Rome?

You weren't a huge believer in Rome, the prospect coming into the NFL draft. I was much higher. Obviously he was drafted in the top 10. Um, I think he's a, I think he's an alpha. I think he is a, uh, a true wide receiver one for a team. And what I mean by that is the target earner, the guy who is going to, you know, if you look at the first seven games, um, I brought this up, uh, sometime in the off season, but you know, listeners were, were lower the foot injury that started and caused all the problems with Rome that started, um, heading into the week nine matchup against the bangles.

And from that point on the rest of the season, he was literal hot garbage. I mean, you couldn't touch him because it was so stinky. But prior to that injury, the first seven games, he had a 25% market share of the team, 37% of the wide receiver targets. Uh, he was on pace for 135 total targets. He was the clear number one for the team got injured. And then it kind of went a bunch of different directions. I believe as he is currently healthy, he will be the number one target. Okay. Which would make him going in the sixth round is that's perfectly acceptable.