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Main show · July 18, 2026

Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Upside Players - Podcast for 7/18

RSSJul 18, 2026 · details onlyYOUTUBEJul 18, 2026 · transcript indexed
Original source

NFC North Breakdown + Upside Players | Fantasy Football 2026 - Ep. 1935

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Transcript links use the exact YouTube video’s clock. Machine transcripts can contain errors.

Episode notes & curated moments 8 records
moment

Cardboard Jay silently fills in for absent Andy

The live show is explicitly two best friends and a cardboard bear. Direct full-runtime review shows Jason and Mike speaking beside full-size Jay Griz for the entire episode, while the close says Andy is missing and will be back. Jay receives no live line.

moment

Al's Jay takeover delights viewers and annoys the hosts

Al fires the audible Jay cue while animated I'M JAY GRIZ lettering fills the set around the physical cutout. Jason and Mike say viewers love the interruption, they hate it, and it still catches them off guard even when expected.

moment

Ben Johnson's coaching tree becomes cologne

Declan Doyle's connection to Ben Johnson is described as a new spritz or cologne replacing the Sean McVay coaching tree, with future teams hiring anyone who has touched Johnson.

moment

The Bears pass-catcher gang fight ends with Loveland's gun

The Rome Odunze and Luther Burden debate becomes a gang fight: Rome has a lead pipe, Burden a butterfly knife, and Colston Loveland ends the contest by arriving with a gun.

moment

Baby LaFleur must obey forehead mathematics

The hosts roast Baby LaFleur's vertical hairstyle, establish that a large forehead requires hair brought down across it, and call the rule simple mathematics. Direct video verifies a produced baby-faced LaFleur graphic.

moment

Hockules ages into Hawkstrap

T.J. Hockenson is declared to feel forty-three despite being twenty-nine, with an assumed fully gray beard; his former Hockules-or-Hawkstrap choice is reduced to Hawkstrap alone.

moment

Jason calls himself a boom-bust chicken

With Andy absent, Jason says Andy enjoys boom-bust players while he dislikes the weeks when they disappear. He asks Mike for roster-construction guidance and diagnoses himself as a chicken before Mike defends the archetype at the right price.

summary

Episode notes

Complete transcript review plus a full-video storyboard and targeted direct-video review establish a two-speaking-host episode: Jason sits at center in a black cap and glasses, Mike sits at the right side in a pale shirt and teal cap, and a full-size cardboard Jay Griz occupies the left host position for the entire 71-minute published program. Andy is explicitly described as missing and due back for the next show, so Jay's fill-in is credited to Andy even though Mike has shifted from his ordinary left-side position. The opening calls the live group two best friends and a cardboard bear and says it is an ideal episode for Jay to be part of because the subject is the NFC North. At the Chicago segment, Al fires the audible 'I'm Jay Grizz' cue and direct frames verify large cyan-and-yellow I'M JAY GRIZ lettering around the physical cutout. The speaking hosts say people love when Al interrupts them with Jay's moment, admit they hate it, and say it still catches them off guard even when expected. Jay never moves or speaks live. Other personality material includes a coaching-tree cologne in which anyone who touched Ben Johnson can run a team; a Bears pass-catcher gang fight in which Rome Odunze gets a lead pipe, Luther Burden a butterfly knife, and Colston Loveland simply brings a gun; and Baby LaFleur's hair being governed by forehead mathematics, reinforced by an actual baby-faced LaFleur graphic. Kyle supplies an off-camera regular-season-touchdown correction with no distinct reply or image. T.J. Hockenson is said to have aged from Hockules or Hawkstrap into only Hawkstrap at age twenty-nine. Near the close, Jason asks Mike how to handle boom-bust players, calls himself a chicken, and contrasts his discomfort with Andy's known preference for them; direct dialogue then confirms Andy is missing and will return. Routine NFC North projections dominate the remaining runtime and are omitted from the personality database.

Inside the episode

108 passages
19:44 ↗

I think I don't have a problem with, with where Rome is going and the, the upside. I don't, I don't know if burden is going to be on very many of my teams. It's just gotten to this point where it's the ADP is so out of control. And it doesn't seem like it's getting cheaper. People are still, people are still like steaming them up higher. They're like, Oh, I'll take up number one. So just, that's what I would say. Be careful with that, with that ADP, the running backs. I really liked DeAndre Swift. He is actually the only world. I know.

20:18 ↗

It's, it's terrible. Uh, the only running backs to finish inside the top 24 each of the last six years, Derek Henry and DeAndre Swift. He, no, no matter how much garbage I would talk about DeAndre Swift, he would still be able to finish in totality with a bunch of fantasy points. Now the breakdown of DeAndre Swift versus Kyle Monungay, do, do, do, do, do. It's over the, over the second half. It got a lot closer in terms of Monungay. It was starting to be trusted by this team. He felt like a player, you know, cause I think he was a seventh rounder.

21:00 ↗

I mean, he was a very late pick. He felt like a running back that could get replaced in the offseason, but I guess he built up enough trust and he's, it's going to be a timeshare. I, I prefer DeAndre Swift because of the, the upside of, you know, he wasn't used as much as a pass catcher as he has been in his career, but he can do that. He, and he can do that. That's like his superpower. Yeah. In, in my evaluation of DeAndre Swift, but you're, you just, you want pieces of, of, of this type of an offense and I have no problem with where DeAndre Swift is being drafted.

21:33 ↗

And in our mock, Kyle Monungay was like a second to last pick or something. He was in the double digit rounds, which is like, that's incredible value. There's, there does exist a world where Monungay has more rushing touchdowns than DeAndre Swift. That is true. I don't think there exists a world where he is a true 50, 50 timeshare or certainly not takes over the lead role over Swift while healthy. However, when you talk about insurance backs, there's not always a clear cut backup and there's not always a clear cut, um, opportunity should an injury happen. This is one of those that needs to be highlighted for this year.

22:13 ↗

Should DeAndre Swift go down to injury? It will be Monungay and he will be up towards league winner status simply because of the offense, the team, the way they want to run the ball. And what we saw him do, he was a seventh round pick. I'm not like bullish on Monungay. People think he's a flex with benefits. I don't see it that way. He got a lot of touchdowns last year and there was a little bit of a lot from week 10 on Monungay handled 45% of the carries. Yes. And it was about a 200 carry pace. Um, I just don't know that you're going to want to start that if he gets a touchdown,

22:45 ↗

you're fine. But on a, on, on the reg, I don't think you're going to want to. However, there was one game DeAndre Swift missed last year. It was week nine. And in that game, you had 31 opportunities go to Monungay. So we have the proof that should Swift go down, Monungay will be pretty much a bell cow. I mean, 31 opportunities. He scored 21.3 fantasy points. It was 26 for 176. The Bengals. Oh, oh. Grain of salt. But the point is they gave him everything. So I do like, I do like Monungay as a late round insurance back. Because Caleb was the QB one against the Cincinnati Bengals.

23:27 ↗

The Bengals are so nice to play against. They put a shellac in 47 to 42. Man, I forgot that game got that crazy. They're for the schedule. They open on the road against Carolina. Then it's Minnesota, Philly, the Jets, and the Packers. They are. So they're favored in five of their first six games. It's telling that they are favored against Minnesota and favored against Philadelphia. Both are at home. Minnesota's at home. Yeah. But Philly, I mean, that's a tough matchup. And they're currently favored. So, yeah. All right. We're going to take a quick break. And then we'll talk about the Green Bay Packers.

24:08 ↗

Green Bay Packers were 9-7-1. So they did not beat their 2025 projected win total of 9-1. This year, Jason, they are projected for 10-1. It makes sense. The team finished 9-7-1, but the team was 9-4-1 before Jordan Love had a concussion in week 16. So this was a team at that point in time that looked like they were – honestly, they looked like they were going to win the Super Bowl. Like they – That was before Micah Parsons went down to injury. It was the Micah Parsons injury, and then that just destroyed their defense. He's so good. But it's worth knowing that Micah Parsons will be back this year, but he will not be back at the beginning of the season.

24:56 ↗

So – and that's good for fantasy purposes. They're going to need to score more without Micah Parsons there. I expect he will start on the pup. He's come out and said, like, he's going to take his time and make sure he is completely ready. If he misses half the season – and honestly, if you're the Packers, whatever. You're going to win enough games without him where you want him at full strength, fully healthy for when it matters in the playoffs. It's a good team. They were 4-5 in one-score games. Warren Sharp has them down for the 14th toughest strength of schedule, so it's kind of right there in the middle.

25:30 ↗

Offensively, it's a great team, and the defense was very strong as well. Dude, do you see this stat? Which one? This is an unbelievable stat. Christian Watson, Tucker Craft, and Jaden Reed. Last year, they did not play one snap together. That's crazy. That is. Wow. They just took turns being injured, I guess. Matt LaFleur, 76 wins, tied for the second most in NFL history by a coach through their first seven seasons. So, it's solid. Weren't people like – Yes. Weren't people wanting to fire LaFleur? He was on the hot seat. People were getting sick. It was like he lost a couple of games after losing his two most important players.

26:18 ↗

Goodness gracious, people. Man. It's a long season. It's a long season and – Have some grace. Just take a breath. I remember as a Cardinals fan trying to pile on. Yes. Yeah. I hate that guy. You should fire him. You should definitely fire him. And then we got the other LaFleur. So, you know. Yeah. Hopefully it's – Matt's hair is much better. Oh, my gosh. Than what – My hair is better. Honestly, honestly, baby LaFleur, I hope you're great. I was rooting for you to get the job. You have too big a forehead to go straight up with your hair.

26:59 ↗

You can't – Guys, guys, if you got a big forehead, you got to have some of the hair hit the forehead. That's just the rules. If you got a really tiny – I don't make them. I don't – Yeah. Just follow them. If you got a really tiny forehead from your eyebrows to your hairline, go up. It's just math, people. It's like vertical stripes. Right. Yes. Vertical or horizontal stripes. They do things. Anyways, the floors. All right. So, Jordan Love, let's start there. He is a good quarterback. I, in fact, think Jordan Love is a great quarterback. The numbers for him.

27:37 ↗

Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, he's first in EPA with a clean pocket, sixth in passer rating, seventh in completion percentage over expectation, fourth in pressure-to-sack ratio. Like, he is – Jordan Love is very, very good. I think he is a good quarterback, definitely. I do not think he is a great quarterback. I think he is a good quarterback with a great offensive mind. Okay, yeah. You can give credit to LaFleur. He's in a system where – oh, we got LaFleur. See what I mean? Baby LaFleur is on the screen. Baby LaFleur, you just got to – just bring the hair down a touch.

28:13 ↗

You've got great hair. Yeah. Just don't do that with it. Anyways. Yeah, I mean, so Matt LaFleur, head coach of the Packers here, he is – he runs a great team, a great offense. He knows that, you know, the running game with Josh Jacobs helps them win ball games. That opens things up for Jordan Love, puts him in great situations. I expect this to be definitely a top-half offense no matter what. I mean, last year, 11th in points per game. I think they'll be right around there. Not like one of the Bengals, you know, Lions barn burners that you expect to be putting up massive points every game.

28:58 ↗

But they will be a top-half offense, if not a top-third offense. And so you want pieces of it. There's a nebulous wide receiver room. And let's talk about the running room first because it's a lot clearer with – you know, it's cloudy with a chance of greatness, which is the clouds are Josh Jacobs has still some pending legal – Yes, his off-the-field issues. He was accused of domestic assault. Yes. I believe he was arrested. Yes. Then new evidence came out. He was released. As of this moment, what has happened is the legal team for Josh Jacobs has said they're happy with where it is,

29:40 ↗

and they expect nothing to come of it. I think legally it's probably gone. It's probably gone. However, it has also been reported that it is not case closed. They're still leaving room to investigate. So there is – you know, and the risk rating for Josh Jacobs in the UDK will factor that in. Let's take that out and say he plays because I do believe that he will play, you know, as many games as he's healthy for this season. I don't think he'll be suspended. I don't think he'll be arrested. And in which case, Josh Jacobs is a darn good pick, man.

30:19 ↗

He is – You don't have any concerns of – Like on the field? Yeah. No, I don't. Obviously, last year he got injured. If you want to be – Well, he did. And, I mean, he's still getting – his role is clear. Like he will be – he's the primary and featured running back of this team. Now, he's the primary scorer of this team. What I love is that after the first half of the first season that he was a Packer, they figured out, holy crap, when we get around the goal line, let's give it to him. And they haven't changed.

30:53 ↗

They haven't wavered. And he just scores touchdowns. Through the first nine games last year, he was on pace for 20 rushing touchdowns. And he's done that every year as a Packer. So, I don't have fears. He was not even – he was a running back two or better every single game before the injury. And he had several games where he was a top ten running back. And I'm seeing three games where he was a top five running back. Then he gets injured with the knee injury. Comes back way too fast. Pushes through it. Still has good games for fantasy. And then flames out.

31:25 ↗

Had that game where, like, he's trying to play and LaFleur was mad at him. Yeah, he got, like, a weird benching. Yeah. He got four carries in the game even though he started – so it was a weird end of the season. I think that's really weighing on people's memory. Well, there's that. He's essentially 28 and a half. He was not incredibly efficient. Like yards per carry, we say it's not everything. But it's a piece of the puzzle. He was right there at four. Over the first month, still electric for fantasy football. But, I mean, three and a half, 3.7, 1.9, 3.9.

32:06 ↗

And where I was going is he is the featured running back. But the health of the other running backs of the team, specifically Marshawn Lloyd, I think has kind of forced more work on Jacobs than maybe the Packers really want to give him. Now, a bet on Marshawn Lloyd getting injured has been foolproof. 100% hit, right? Yeah. We have six total carries through two years for Marshawn Lloyd. But he's currently healthy. And, you know, I've been reading from beat reporters over what's been taking place over the summer that he looks great. He is a talented back. He was a day two pick.

32:45 ↗

He was pick 88 in the third round, Marshawn Lloyd. I really liked him out of USC. Very explosive. And they don't have explosiveness with Jacobs. So they need that speed. They're not going to have it. I refuse to believe three years into the career that Marshawn... The greatest, you know, it's said over and over, the most important attribute in a football player, the most important ability is availability. Right. He doesn't have it. And so, sure, one path towards Josh Jacobs not being good is Marshawn Lloyd. That's an easy bet for me to take the other side. There's that. There's just Jacobs getting older, perhaps slowing down.

33:29 ↗

And then will the... Will the game scripts allow for what they did last year? Like, because the defense was so dominant. But, you know, like at the end of the year, when they lost Micah Parsons, they were a very, very different defense. So, like, over the first part of the season, do you see any risk that Jacobs won't be producing? I don't. I think for fantasy football, he is near a bell cow. He is always given the touchdown opportunities and converts them. He's still involved in the passing game. He's paid to be their main starter. And so, I don't have a lot of fear.

34:10 ↗

The fear is age and injury. Yeah. So, he's going right now as the running back 14. There are guys, like, when we did an early mock draft, we were talking about, we've got Omari and... We drafted Omari and Hampton ahead of Josh Jacobs. And we were looking at it and we're like, man, Josh Jacobs is just going to score more fantasy points. And that might be potentially true. I will say that the upside case at 29 is not... Josh Jacobs is not going to be a top three running back. He's not going to be a fantasy football breaker, which is why he's drafted as the running back 14 right now.

34:45 ↗

He can't do the high-end outcome that some of these young bucks can do. But he will score a ton of fantasy points. I'm not even remotely worried about that. All right. The wide receiver position, it has been cleared. As Romeo Dobbs is now a New England Patriot and Dontavian Wicks is a Philadelphia Eagle. Leaving Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden as your primary starting three wide receivers. How are... I have expressed... I'm very interested in Christian Watson right now, especially when you talk about his price going as the wide receiver 30. He just got another extension. He is truly a curious case of a guy who doesn't really have a lot of statistics to his name.

35:36 ↗

As a rookie, 611 yards, 422, 620, 611. A lot of that being injury-related. He's capped out at 15 games a couple years ago. But they keep paying him. And they keep wanting him around. And they were not aggressive in trying to bring Romeo Dobbs back. And then trading Wicks away. They're going forward with these three as their main wide receivers. How are you attacking the Packers wide receiver room? I think you... I am attacking it. That's what I'm doing. You want all three of these guys. You want a piece. You want a shot. Because someone, I think, is going to be very relevant for fantasy football.

36:19 ↗

You still want Jaden Reed? Yeah, I do. I mean, last episode, I took Jaden Reed over Matthew Golden. I still want Matthew Golden as well. He's a first-round, second-year player who is going to get the opportunity to be that dude. And I won't be surprised if he comes out and he is the one. He is the alpha. That's what they drafted him for. The first time in whatever, 10,000 years that they took a first-round wide receiver. Optically, it makes sense. But I would be pretty surprised. Well, I mean, there's a reason I took Jaden Reed. We didn't like Matthew Golden's collegiate tape.

36:55 ↗

We were shocked that he was a first-rounder. I had him as a third-round grade, which isn't bad, but it certainly isn't a star player. And then he really did get opportunities as a rookie and fail. I mean, Matthew Golden, here's a list of first-round wide receivers over the last decade who failed to score a touchdown in their regular season. And keep in mind, he wasn't injured. He still failed to score a touchdown. Here's the list. Kevin White, Josh Doxon, Laquan Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Kadarius Toney, and Matthew Golden. So Mike Williams got it together. Corey Davis had a career, and most of the list was bad.

37:31 ↗

Considering that we went into last year not believing in Golden. Hey, Laquan Treadwell is still in the league, Jason. That is unbelievable. What an accomplishment for a bad player. Which Kyle wants us to make sure. Yes, he scored a touchdown in the playoffs. Yes. We're talking about regular season. Regular season. So you want to take a bet here because nebulous wide receiver rooms on good offenses, you don't have to pay up for them. Right. If I'm going to take a bet, the problem with Jaden Reed is not talent. The problem with Jaden Reed is they refuse to play him in two wide receiver sets.

38:02 ↗

If you're not on the field, you can't score fantasy points. Which at some point you have to say you've got to question something about the talent, or at least the way that Matt LaFleur sees Jaden Reed. I think they love how they use Jaden Reed. I don't think they think of it as a negative. They think of him positively in the role he has, and so they've got that locked in. I don't necessarily think that's a lack of talent. I do think that there is a world where if they go halfway through the season and Golden isn't getting it done, and or Christian Watson gets injured again, now all of a sudden Jaden Reed isn't,

38:34 ↗

you know, forced to be on the field in two wide receiver sets. I think Jaden Reed is a very good wide receiver. If he gets that opportunity, he'll do well. But we have to anticipate that Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, those are the two wide receivers on the field the most in two wide receiver sets. Christian Watson has proven a lot more than Matthew Golden, so I take my bets Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden in that order. All three are worthy picks in fantasy football. For where they're going, you know, the risk is already baked in. All right. And then Tucker Craft.

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