Busts & Values + Fantasy Fisticuffs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/23

Here's your opportunity to play in the biggest, largest fantasy football tournament in the known universe and all the parallel universes. Head over to megalobole.com right now to find out how you get in. To the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Welcome into the fantasy footballers podcast. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, I'm Andy Holloway. Great show for you today. Excited to have you with us. If you're a fan of watching us agree with one another, this is not the show for you today. Some.

Polar opposite opinions shall be shared. Just some dumb ones. You know, just wrong ones. I completely agree. Yes, do I. I will highlight which ones to obey. We are sharing, this is not like a show built around disagreeing with one another. It is the busts and values episode. But the bust picks and the value picks that we have selected will provoke, dare I say, some fisticuffs on the show today. Yeah, this is not unanimous agreement. So we will make our cases. And then should they be disagreed with, you will hear the counter argument. And the judge isn't here today to even declare a ruling. So this is going to the jury, I will play the listenership. I will step in. I will do it for us. I'm not sure that's how the legal system should work where one side.

of the argument. Plaintiff, what do you decide? Yeah, I think I know what they decide. Like if the judge is running behind, if the judge is laid at all, it's just whoever calls it. Yeah, whoever gets to the front first and puts a wig on. Bust and values today, NFL news, to talk about a good quick question. So a jam-packed fantasy football show. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome into the fantasy footballers. This show is about equipping you. to win at every facet of fantasy football, whether you're new to the game, because I know there's a lot of people that have joined leagues for the first time, whether you're an experienced player that needs an edge. Our goal is to equip you with all the information that you could possibly need so that you can make decisions based on your league, the dynamics of your league context, and be better every single week. That's the whole point. That's why we have differing views. You can decide whether to go with the wrong one.

in Mike or the right one. In me. And Jason. Yeah, in Jason. There you go. But that's the point of this show. We're with you all year round or a year round podcast and we're every day of the week from now through the end of the season. So you're going to have new content every day. Just refresh that phone. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at Ultimate DraftKit. It has all of our player projections. So we have staff projections for every single player updated daily. It's got our sleepers breakouts, busts, and values that we do agree on. Those are our consensus. It's got the draft analyzer, which lets you import your team and then see what we think of it and where you can improve and give you a game plan for going into the season. It's got 100 plus player profile videos where we kind of break down and talk about these players. That's great toilet time watching where you can actually know.

Our takes, our agreements, our disagreements on all these players, we've got blurbs, write-ups, injuries, every single thing that you need to make sure you're not making a dumb pick. You know, we talk about this all the time. Like, you don't win your championship at the draft, but you can lose it. You're building a foundation. So stick with us through the season, build a good foundation with the Ultimate Draft Kit, and let's get championships this year. Absolutely. So that's Ultimate DraftKit.com, and then Mike said it at the top, but the Megalibola Bowl is open right now. That's our largest ever tournament.

megalobol.com for all the details. You can go, enter. It's going to be a blast this year. I am in it. Jason. Yeah. Jason is in it. Yeah. We're playing, Mike. Mike. I will never tell. Mike might be in it. I'm a gentleman. I don't draft. I don't draft and tell. Doesn't draft and tell. Also, the winner plays against us in the listener league next year, no matter what. Shout out to Reverb last year's winner. Oh, my goodness. Who is playing against us this year in the listener league. All right, Instagram. Quick question of the day comes from Zip Kicker. So I'm not sure his feeling on actual kickers, but seems positive. How much weight do you put on yardage bonuses? So you have leagues that have like one point for a 40 plus yard play, for example. What are your thoughts on yardage bonuses? Yardage bonuses are awesome. They are super fun. They give you a little bit of... We are two. In our league of record, we are two points for a 40 yard.

rushing touchdown, passing touchdown, and receiving touchdown. Awesome is your vote. Judge Moore. Yeah, awesome is. It's a lot of fun. A two-point bonus for like a 40-plus yard touchdown. And this is just coincidental timing. I didn't even know that this was the connection, but that is the scoring we have in the Megalabole as well. There are. bonuses for 40 plus yard touchdowns. You didn't know the scoring format in our largest tournament. No, I knew. I made the scoring format. I didn't know that this was the quick question. Oh, I'm sorry. That it relates to that. But it's a good question of like, you know, you're going to get more explosive plays out of, you know, the old school Deshaun Jackson's now, you know, a Tyler Lockett that you assume is going to catch a bomb touchdown or a Jamar Chase. And I factor it in absolutely not at all.

I have never once made a draft pick thinking, you know, I might get two extra points one of those weeks because he's explosive. I am, of course, trying to focus on explosive players. So it automatically goes together. Like if you're trying to focus on explosive players, younger athletes, those are the ones usually more inclined to break away for 40, 50, 60 yards. There's only... a handful of players that are on some level of like you can count on those plays like Tyreek Hill right is the name that kind of comes to mind in that regard but I'm not I'm not deciding on Tyree Kilt over you know I guess just Jefferson has big plays too but over like a Cooper Cup just because I think it'll be more bonus points I just think it's fun for fantasy yeah I'm in full agreement all right let's get into the news

News and notes from Around the League. Presented by USAA Insurance. Yeah, Avanti Adams had a ton of those last year. That's for sure. He would just disappear in the secondary. And he will not this year. Yeah, he will. Because he's great. He'll be fine. I am not saying he's going to have a bad season. I think he's going to be awesome, 170 targets. I just think they're going to be closer to the line of scrimmage with Jimmy Garoplo. Nope. Okay. The judge ruled. I'm the judge. As the defendant, I am the judge. News for the fantasy football world. Ian Rappaport saying the MRI revealed no significant injury to Terry McLaren. There's optimism for week one. Okay, okay. That also means that he could not be available week one. It's going to be down to the wire, but that's good news. Yes, we were holding out some optimism, you know, expecting the worst, but we got some good news.

I still do believe that there will be some ramifications early in the season. Even if he's there week one to push off, to kick off, to get off the line of scrimmage properly, it's going to, you know, he's not going to be at 100%. Jackson Smith and Jigba, slight fracture in his wrist, seeing a specialist, has not had surgery yet. Oh, really? Yeah, so that was misreported yesterday. But it's... It's not looking good for week one, for Jackson Smith and Jigba. No, it's less than three weeks until week one. The timeline that was being thrown around there optimistically was three to four weeks. I think that that is not a timeline we should be banking on. Sometimes these fractures could take six weeks. The point is you're not going to have him the first, you're not going to start him, I don't believe, the first three weeks of the season. That's how I view it. So when you draft him, you need to know he is.

Not a starter week one, but I'm absolutely fine with that still. Maybe there are other players around where he was going that you're like, well, now knowing I can't possibly start him in the first three weeks, I'll select, you know, player X, but I'm still fine grabbing him for the second half of the season. Yeah, you get to put him on your IR, which is nice. And then I'll be the dark cloud of doom just you, because we have to look forward. We have, again, this is just complete speculation, but. looking at the timeline of the injury, if it's going to go longer than we think. The Seattle Seahawks are on by in week five. You can put a player on IR and have them miss four games in return. That timeline is pretty nice for Seattle. Should they choose to go with that method? I'm not saying I have any inside information that this is going to happen, but it's something that you need to pay attention to. Hopefully we get some more news over the next couple of days.

All right, that was today's news and notes presented, as always, by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Bus. I did forget that the graphic, Mike, here on YouTube for bus. I had looked down. Was it the, is it the Humpty Dumpty one? It is the Humpty Dumpty and you are the Humpty. I mean, I fell off the wall and I had a great fall. What are you going to do about it? I'm going to try and knock you off the wall right now. I'm going to try my darnness. You can't, because I am soaring through the atmosphere hand in hand with this man. This is the, this is identical to my conviction on the positive side for Mike Evans is my conviction on the negative side for J.K. Dobbins, who is my bust here in the show, which I stand alone because I looked at you guys. Yeah, you're the rankings. And you're both. Stinky, stinky cheese. You're both.

crazy people. We're too low on them. You're way too high. Oh, should we move him up? Probably, yeah. I mean, I don't know if you both have him on one of your rosters together. I don't know if you have bets placed somewhere that is distorting your views. But J.K. Dobbins is unequivocally going to be a bust based on ADP this year. J.K. Dobbins, I will make the case every which way and see if I can persuade you at least to adjust him back a spot or two. This is a player through three years that has played in less than 50% of his games. So you have this overarching reality that JK Dobbins has not stayed healthy. This is a player who benefited from a run-first system with Greg Roman. And I have been relentlessly pelted with the darts of Todd Monkin from both of you all off-season, the optimism around the passing game, around a one tight-end system, three-wide.

the relentless truth that Todd Monkin is going to change how fast they play and how often they run the football. In his career, he has been extraordinarily touchdown dependent. J.K. Dobbins has had 14 of 23 games without a touchdown. So of the 23 games, remember, that's less than half of all the games he ever could have played because he's been hurt. In 14 of the 23, he's averaged six fantasy points per game when he hasn't scored. So. He doesn't catch passes. He averages less than one per game in his career. And here's a stat that I think will be eye-opening to you in a legitimate fashion. In the three years that Todd Monkin spent in Tampa Bay, his running backs ranked 28th, 30th, and 32nd in fantasy points. So you have a player in J.K. Dobbins. Care to give me their names?

I do not have them in front of me. We'll pull those up. I'm assuming if they're not J.K. Dobbins, they couldn't have done well. But the truth is, is he doesn't catch passes. And if he doesn't score, he doesn't produce. And that's in a historical system that has been extremely run friendly. The efficiency of... J.K. Dobbins has been matched by the efficiency of Gus Edwards and most players that have played in that backfield. I'm not saying he's not talented. I haven't projected for 200 carries and 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. That's 29th in fantasy production because we've talked about how valuable a target is. Will it get every goal line? No, you got a quarterback who's going to steal opportunities around the red zone. In fact, here's another stat for you.

Over the last five years, if you have a quarterback that rushes for 700 rushing yards, here's what the running back reception rank is for the team. 30th, 31st, 17th, 29th, 28th, 24th, 30th, 32nd, 20th. You don't finish in the top half of the league, even in receiving opportunities. So you have no statistical reason to believe J.K. Dobbins, who's not a receiver, will somehow become a receiver in an offense that won't have receiving running backs. Justice Hill? Great. Great camp preseason, probably profiles as the third down back for this team actually with the minimal opportunities in the passing game. I believe if you draft J.K. Dobbins where he's going, you're drafting Brian Robinson and you don't realize it. Because Brian Robinson is going to have a ton of opportunities in an offense that is going to be a lot better. It's not the Baltimore Ravens. I think they're going to be a really good offense. I believe you. I'm basically saying I believe you about Todd Monkin. But if J.K. Dobbins doesn't score.

He ain't going to catch the ball, and he ain't going to make you happy because he's going to score about five, six, seven points. He's going to be Brian Robinson last year when he didn't score. So I somewhat agree with a lot of what you're saying, and I think that the big disagreement is actually the touchdowns. You know, you talk about, well, what about when he doesn't score touchdowns? He's scored a lot of touchdowns. He's touchdown dependent. Well, he's been really good at that. skill, if you want to say. Now, that's not a sticky stat, but you've got him down for six touchdowns. I have him for nine touchdowns. We both have them for about, we're in the 1,100 yards. I only have them with 26 receptions. So I don't think he's going to have a wild PPR season. But I do think that when you look at this offense, the scoring opportunities, his history, when he's been on the field, this is a guy who could end up with 10, 12 touchdowns. And so if he ends up with the same stats you're saying,

But because it's a good offense with scoring opportunities, he ends up with double-digit touchdowns, then it's going to be a great pick. I have a note that says there isn't a case for J.K. Dobbins to have a great season unless you give him 15 touchdowns on the ground. 15 is hyperbolic. Well, look, so is. If you project, you said this yourself. This is from your own lips. That's going to sound good. You didn't have a player projected as double-digit touchdowns. in your projections at one point in time because you said you had a hard time projecting that kind of a number for a player. So if the case for J.K. Dobbins, a player who's played less than 50% of his games who scored in what? What's 23 minus 14? That's nine? He scored in nine games in his career. So nine of 50 possible games he scored. If the argument is I think he'll score a bunch more touchdowns, at a minimum you have to admit that that is a leap for the player when I think that there are other players on the board.

that it's not such a leap to say they'll get there. So that is my case against J.K. Dobbins is that you have to project something you have never seen in a past first offense, right? We all admit this is going to be a different offense. It will. And so if this was Greg Roman and this was a player that, you know, he was 100% healthy and you knew that he was going to be the running back, I could say, all right, he's going to get to 10, he's going to get to 12. This is my case for the J.K. Dobbins bus. Now, you guys have him way ahead of ADP.

I have them way below ADP. And so maybe ADP is just right. Maybe that's the case in the argument here. But there you go. So that's my case for Dobbins. And I know that Mike and I who often agree are diametrically opposed here. I am more in the middle. I'm not as hot and bothered by Dobbins. Can I get you to ADP then? Not all the way to ADP. I think I, you know, I'm looking at where I have Dobbins right now. I've got him currently sitting at running back 14. That is ahead of ADP. I am pretty comfortable with where it's at. I mean, there are some players behind him that I might take the gamble on a bigger opportunity. We're actually going to talk about another player here, maybe right this second, that I've got near him and behind him. So, Mike, why don't you, unless you want to talk about J.K. Dobbins, why don't you bring up your bus pick? Sure.

notes for J.K. Dobbins, one, pulled up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which, because it's a frightening stat when you say that. But then you say it was Doug Martin, Jacques, Wiz, Rogers, and Peyton Barber. And your fears certainly subside a little bit that those guys didn't have success in Todd Monkin's offense. J.K. Dobbins, as a rookie, who started the first half of the year behind Mark Ingram, played in 15 of 16 games. He finished as the running back 21. that year. That's one spot behind 80. You were in your 30s back then, Mike. I was. Imagine that. I definitely. I definitely was. I don't lean on rookie years three years ago. I'm sorry. He was a, he wasn't even started until the second half. Yeah, he has missed a bunch of time due to one catastrophic injury. The injuries that he had last year to me are completely related to his recovery, which is part of why the Giovante Williams recovery is absolutely just so insane.

to me. But Dobbins, while there are the fears, Lamar Jackson is a mobile quarterback. And mobile quarterbacks simply do not check the ball down to J.K. Dobbins, or I'm sorry, to running backs. But Dobbins, in his collegiate career, like in his profile, he caught over 20 passes a year as a college player. It's been too long. It's been way too long. The point is he can do it. And I think that he receives a stronger opportunity. This year to catch passes. He had seven catches last year. Yeah, well, how many games did he appear in? Eight games. Yeah, that was rough. He had 18 as a rookie. Yeah. So let's get a, all I need. I'll give you 18 catches. I just feel like you made such. I want him to get up to 30. You made such a strong argument against a so much more proven player in Jonathan Taylor.

I mean, the case against Jonathan Taylor was made profoundly who, and he is, he's won fantasy leagues as the number one overall player and has caught the ball a bunch. So that would be just my vehement. Yeah, he costs a lot more, though. I mean, we're not telling people draft J.K. Dobbins way ahead of ADP. We're saying at ADP, we think he can beat his, we think he can beat his. I mean, I'm not ever taking J.K. Dobbins. You know, as the 14th running back off the board. Am I wrong that Mike has him ranked ahead of Jonathan Taylor? That could be true. I would be surprised that. Which I guess is based on maybe more the situation for Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, Jonathan Taylor has more red flags than the red flags you're bringing up for Dobbins to me. Yeah, Dobbins, you do not, though. You do not. I want to give you a fair shit. Good, good, good. It's 11 and 12. Okay. So you got them back to back.

None of us have gone that far, although Jonathan Taylor's situation, which has no resolution, which Josh Jacobs has no resolution either. I mean, the optimism around Jacobs, I've been around the block enough to know that unless I see a real thing produce itself, both of those players are scary draft picks right now, personally. And I will say there will be more pro propaganda for J.K. Dobbins later on. Oh, I know. Stay tuned, everybody. But I'll just, I'll jump in with my bust pick because I hate the ADP for this player. My ranking is, it might be a little too rough, a little too savage, but I do not like the ADP of Travis E.TN, the running back of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is also a player if you want to knock people for missing time. He missed an entire season. He missed his entire rookie campaign. Last year, he finished off as the running back 17. And we all remember the middle of the season when

It looked like, holy crap, Travis ETN is, in fact, the next best thing at the running back position. He's getting all the snaps. He's ripping off 40-plus yard runs every single week. But look at the entire picture of what the Jacksonville Jaguars have done, including last year. James Robinson coming off of the Achilles injury was the guy. And I know ETN was coming off of his own injury, but the fact that James Robinson off an Achilles... Still held off Travis E.T.N. as the starter for the first month of the season. I don't know. That's a little bit of a red flag for me. And Robinson was coming through with some big time fantasy performances, even though it did not look great for James Robinson on the ground. Eventually, they trade him away. From week 10 on for Travis E.T.N. He was the running back 34. Five games outside of the top 24. Concerns in passing work? Like,

Is Travis E.T.N. a pass catching back. It is, I think, one of the great mysteries of fantasy football because he did it in college with Travis E.T.N. A season. Did it a lot. Like, as a senior, 48 receptions with 12 yards, over 12 yards of catch. Like, that's, that's ridiculous. Then Urban Meyer, who is the coach and the caller, like, for that team, they draft him in the first round. And immediately Urban Meyer says, well, Travis E.T.N. is going to be our satellite back. And you're like, What is going on here? I think the truth is with players like that, it is about will they be in this offense, right? Because his numbers last year as a receiving back, they were like Josh Jacobs numbers, the first two seasons of Josh Jacobs career. I think the capability is there. The question that we have to answer is.

Are they going to utilize him in that way? Right. All the weapons that they have. Because they did not. Only 14% of Trevor Lawrence's targets went to running backs. That was the second lowest in the NFL. In fact, that tied Jalen Hertz. If you didn't like Jailen Hurts checking the ball down, Trevor Lawrence wasn't doing it either. And this is, this is an old quote, but to be fair, like, it still haunts my dreams. This is a quote from Travis ETS when he's talking about catching the ball. I feel nervous, I guess, because the ball is coming, and I always feel like the defender's right there. So I run before I catch the ball, and I get spooked by my surroundings. Now, he had tremendous success in college when he said this, but it's still like, are we sure this guy is really someone that the team wants to count on as a pass-catching running back? And last year, near the goal line, these have been documented, 14 carries inside the five, only three rushing touchdowns. And yes, I did see the- Did you go watch them? I did watch every single snap. There was a really good thread.

highlighting Travis CTN at the goal line where, like, some of it's his fault, some of it's the offensive line fault, some of it's someone else. Like, it's not all Travis ETN's fault, but in the NFL, coaches don't necessarily care. Like, it's Kenneth Walker was inefficient at the goal line. What'd they do? They drafted a big bruiser in the second round. Travis ETN was inefficient by the goal line. What'd they do? They drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round, who is also a very versatile running back. And Coach Doug Peterson has said, I don't want to overload Tank early, but I'm going to see his role expand as the season progresses. And I think that Tank Bigsby is a very, very good player. A day two draft capital on a running back is still a big deal. So I just think that if the receptions are where they were last year, if ETN is splitting goal line work,

he's not going to come through at his running back 1380p. I'm not saying that... 13's very high. Like, ETN can still finish as a top 24 running back. I don't think that's a wild thing to say, even though I have him slightly... Peterson say he wanted him to have 1,700, 1,700 rushing yards? Yeah, but that's nonsense. Who doesn't want that? Yeah, I would love my all... I would love Tank Bigsby, my other running back to also have 1,700 rushing yards. It matters to me if the coach is saying that he's going to have that kind of workload to sustain that.

Yeah, but again, this is following the actions of the team, not the flapping lips of the coach, which those things have gotten people in trouble many, many times. Like we all remember, I'm going to give the Buffalo running back. His name is escaping me. Spiller? C.J. Spiller. I'm going to give C.J. Spiller the ball until he pukes. That turned into like. 10 opportunities of game. So we can't always follow what they say, follow what they're actually doing. So I just, I am concerned about Travis ETN as the running back 13. We all have them below ADP for what it's worth. I'm at 16, Jason at 18, Mike at 26. He's going on sleeper at 308. He is more reasonable in underdog in a best ball format at 405. And then ESPN is the same as sleeper. So he is being invested in, I think it's because of the youth.