Busts & Values + Fantasy Fisticuffs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/23

I think it's because of the explosive ability. I think it's because this is a running back for a winning football team that should take the division or has a chance to take the division to compete for it, which is something you invest in. But it's all baked in, right? It's all built into the draft price. And there is a case for it not happening, which could cost you if you spend up on it. And on top of that, Doug Peterson in Philadelphia was an absolute nightmare for. running backs for fantasy football. You just, you never knew who it was going to be because his committee was so strong. Yeah, this is one of those things we're going to leave the season saying we need to remember and learn a lesson here because Kenneth Walker, Travis E.T and these are guys where it's like, do you draft the young, super explosive, already proven on the NFL field talent? Because of course you should and they're going to be great because they are great. Or when they bring in competition.

who can eat away in valuable fantasy touches, did that ruin them? Like, I think we're going to learn a big lesson here with these two guys. I agree. Back with Jason's bust, his stupid bust in a minute. All right, back with my stupid dumb, dumb bust according to Andy. Andy tells me, I wish I had a drop for that. Andy tells me before the show, he's like, he's actively targeting this player. That's right. That I think is going to not produce. where he is being drafted right now, which is the wide receiver 20 on Sleeper. We're talking about DeAndre Hopkins superstar wide receiver over the course of his career. Now the wide receiver won for the Tennessee Titans. He was traded to the Titans. Actually, he was cut. He was cut and signed with the Titans at 31 years of age. So he is an older player.

Changing teams, that's not necessarily best, but he still looked great last year. Last year, Hopkins averaged 10.7 targets per game, and in Arizona, he really lived off pure volume for fantasy. He was good when he played. Obviously, he had to do the suspension to start the year, but he was a volume machine averaging over 10 targets a game. In 2023, at 31 years of age, that ain't happening. It's not happening when you play for the Tennessee Derek Henry's. This is not a team that is going to have enough passing volume to make D'Andre Hopkins really the dude. I mean, we have Ryan Tannahill in Tennessee starting exactly 55 games. And in those games, he's averaged 29 and a half passing attempts per game. And his wide receiver won.

has been nowhere near 10.7. And you go, well, yeah, but he didn't have DeAndre Hopkins. He had AJ freaking Brown. Like, AJ Brown obviously can be used in a volume way. He just was for the Philadelphia Eagles. But AJ Brown, a young explosive athlete, was 7.6 targets per game, eight targets per game, valuable targets deep down the field where he'd break a tackle and have amazing yards after the catch. I just don't think that a young AJ Brown can... you know, that an old DeAndre Hopkins could do what a young A.J. Brown can do. This, he's not going to have the volume. And, you know, I just brought this up on the tips and tricks episode when we were talking about wide receiver won't. We, yeah. Please leave me out of that. The whole fantasy footballers crew, we were talking about that great. No, we weren't. Anyways, the point was when you look at bottom five teams and pass rate over expectation of which Tennessee has been.

and projects to continue to be, their corresponding wide receiver 1 during that time averages 95 targets, 10 fantasy points a game, and finishes as the wide receiver 35. Now, that's the average. DeAndre Hopkins is above average. He will beat wide receiver 35. I'm not saying he's a bust as in. He's Adam Thielen, don't draft him. He's not going to be able to do anything this year. But he's being drafted as the wide receiver 20, and I don't think when you take him there that he has... Upside, you know, there's a lot of good wide receivers on the board when you're drafting around wide receiver 20. And you say, well, does he have the chance to be this volume play or this young explosive athlete play that will really dominate for fantasy? No, I don't think so. Can he have a solid season and end up with enough touchdowns to be relevant at the end of the year? Okay, I'll grant you that.

But also, could he just not have enough volume and enough touchdowns in this offense that goes to Derek Henry where it's like, eh, he just wasn't really worth it. He still had it, but pretty much a bust pick. And I think that's what's going to happen. I think he's being drafted off of name recognition alone, primarily. You still have Trelon Burks there who, you know, is dealing with his own injury, but he's going to be there this season. He's not out for the year. And where he's going, you know, there's a, you know, I'd rather take a shot. If you're going to go low volume, I want the young explosive athlete like a DJ Moore, a Terry McLaurin. You know, I would rather take a shot on Christian Watson. You know, I know Andy loves Brandon Ayuk. There's just players that I think have more upside and are in better situations for volume or offense than drafting the name recognition of Hopkins that just doesn't, you know, it's like maybe he'll just.

Be the wide receiver 20 that you're drafting a wide receiver 20. But that's it's not what I'm looking for in those early rounds. But in the fourth round, no, no thank you. Okay. So where are you targeting him, Andy? I'm comfortable with him at ADP. I mean, I don't see a lot. Other than the offense, obviously the passing volume is a case that differentiates these two players. But I would see Hopkins in the same vein as the value of Keenan Allen in terms of in the offense. Keenan Allen is not an explosive player. Keenan Allen is a 10 a catch. DeAndre Hopkins is big enough to still bring in touchdown numbers, and they don't have Trailing Berks for maybe the first six weeks of the year. So when I see I'm targeting him, it's opportunistic because of the Burke's injury and because this offense functions really well in a play action situation where Hopkins has shown no difficulty in getting separation. But I'm comfortable at 20. You would say Hollywood?

You would take over Hopkins? Oh, that's a good question. That one's really interesting. Former teammate? Yeah, I think I would take Hollywood. I would rather have Hollywood. Would you take Mike Williams? When you talk about explosiveness? I would rather have Mike Williams. Chris Godwin, who's in an offense with probably middle of the pack passing volume. The baker nears? Godwin doesn't have necessarily. I think Godwin and Hopkins are pretty equal to each other. So that's like a roster construction build. If I need. more volume and safety and consistency than I'd go Godwin if I wanted bigger, upside more touchdowns through the season for week winning performances than Hopkins. Where was hot? I am curious. Oh, he was suspended for six games. Yeah. What was it? I was trying to remember his ADP the last time we saw him in the kind of this time of year. Two years ago? Yeah, I just, I wonder if the name recognition, like if it still was there for Hopkins, I feel like he'd be higher than 20.

I don't know. Because this was a perennial top five player at the position for so many years. But I guess that has worn off. Yeah, it's worn off. And I think the Titans, the boiling it down to just real simple volume is when DeAndre Hopkins came off of the six game suspension and you weren't really sure what you were going to get. And he was actually fantastic for fantasy football. I mean, wide receiver 10, 2, 2015, 15, 12. In that stretch of games, though, He was seeing 10.7 targets per game. That's really, really strong. Hopkins, we're talking about basically a 30% target share. If you give him that 30% target share off of the numbers Jason just mentioned, the 29 pass attempts a game, the 10.7 targets drops to 8.7. And if he's seeing between 8 and 9 targets versus between 10 and 11, that's a pretty big deal for,

for his offensive output. Not only that, but if you look at how he performed last season Hopkins, Hopkins came back from his suspension and dominated. Week 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, he was the wide receiver 10, 2, 20, 15, 15. Almost like I just said that. Almost. Well, I was giving the specifics, but all of those games, every single one, was without Marquis, Hollywood Brown. Right. So he was the only guy. And maybe to start the season, you don't have. He's always done that. Maybe he's always had those targets. Sure. Well, when Hollywood came back, you know, he was the wide receiver 34, 37, 100 and something. But I can't remember if Kyler was there for those games. So that might not be fair either. But he's not 11, 11 and 10 targets. I do think that with Traylon Burks and Hopkins, Chig Conquo coming up with a smaller passing volume.

I just don't think it's, I don't think the upside's there for Hopkins. Yeah, to me, it's just, it's the pie. Like, Hopkins, I think, can still be a 30% target share player, which is absurd. If Hopkins had gone and signed with the Chiefs, this isn't like anti-Di-Di-Ondre Hopkins. This is more anti-the-roll for the Titans, because if he signed with the Chiefs, I'd be drafting them wide receiver. No, way above, whereas now, I'd be, what, wide receiver 10? Drake Leonard or DeAndre Hopkins. based on, since you have a passing volume situation. There we go. I will go with Hopkins there. I do have worries about Drake London. Values. All right. Let's talk about some players that actually represent good draft a value in fantasy football. We're not saying reach for them, but we're saying these are guys that are going to drop the places they shouldn't be dropping to, and you're probably going to get a player that deserved to be drafted.

around or two higher when the season is all set and done. And this player has had a tumultuous, difficult off season in a lot of respects. He had to take a pay cut. He had to go to court. He got to make headlines in the worst possible ways. And because of that, you get to draft him a lot later than he should be drafted. Another finalist for the my guy, but Joseph Mixin. running back for the Super Bowl threatening Cincinnati Bengals is being drafted in the fourth round of fantasy drafts. What are they doing to the Super Bowl? They're threatening to destroy it. Oh, wow. But I love the Super Bowl. An assembly of villains. No, look, Joe Mixon, do you remember how many targets Joe Mixon had last year?

It was not the number, but it was so many. No, 96. He was on pace for 90 targets. He had 76 targets because he, or 74 because he missed a handful of games. He still caught 60 passes last season despite missing three games. A reception, a target to the running back is worth two and a half times a carry. They have no one. I looked at my offseason projections this morning and I adjusted them because Chris Evans is now the leader in the clubhouse. to be the third down involved back. Trayvion Williams, Chase Brown, Chris Evans. These are back row running back room names. Joe Mixon is literally stepping into more opportunity with less competition. Samajai P. Ryan, who was capable, is gone. On a team that is going to be great, where you could see touchdown variation trend back in his direction. I just don't understand it.

I don't see why he is going where he's going. I haven't ranked at RB9. You guys are with me on this one as a value. And, you know, he got a not guilty in the courtroom, which will not have an imminent effect on his availability. So to me, he is just kind of sticking out like a sore thumb. I think players are fatigued on taking Joe Mixon. They want to go with the sex. Like a good example is Travis E.T.N. They want to go with a younger, sexier, more explosive player. Joe Mixon's days of being the next Adrian Peterson are over. But he's still the current Joe Mixon, which I think is going to provide a lot of value because he's a great pass catcher. He has the explosive game possibilities. You get a couple of Jamar Chases dragged down on the goal line this year. You're going to have touchdown variation come back into his favor.

Where was he total? I'm pulling this up. Total touchdowns. He had seven rushing touchdowns last year versus 13 the year before. Almost double the rushing touchdowns the year prior. Yeah, the great and disappointing Joe Mixon was the running back. He's discrepancy, though. Well, he missed. He missed three games. So this is a player we finished at RB12 missing three games last year and is being drafted as, you know, a fourth round pick. So keep your eye on Joe Mixing in your drafts. He's a great option. specifically for players that go in on a onesie. So if you go in on a tight end in the first or the third round, Kelsey and Andrews, you go in on Hertz, Alan Mahomes, because you're like, I got to have that guy. Now you got Joe Mixing, who's a possible top 12 back in the fourth round. Yeah, no, he is a very good value. It's kind of easy sometimes. There are certain things where you can look at and say, okay, well, this guy will clearly be a value and beat his ADP. And two of them sometimes.

that are easy to predict are positive touchdown regression, meaning when a player last year was inefficient on touchdowns specifically, then they're probably going to bounce back because that's just what happens with touchdowns. And that's something for Joe Mixon. His opportunities inside the five, I mean, the opportunities are there. The touchdowns didn't come, and that's just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. So he drops an ADP. And then the other way to find a discount is, A lot of bad publicity and question marks around someone's name, you know, especially with suspension looming the questions of will he miss time? Well, that was scary. That pushed his ADP down. That meant that when he was in the third round and you're looking at a draft in him or someone else and you go, well, I don't know what's going on with his legal situation. He could get suspended. I'm going to go with the other guy. So his ADP keeps falling. Now we've got clarity there that he's almost certainly not going to get suspended for this.

Just to throw in, I haven't heard anything about the suspension, but due to the player, what are the player conduct, whatever it is. Player conduct policy. Policy. I couldn't think of the last word. The NFL, like guys have been ruled not guilty in the court of law and then still receive a suspension for giving the NFL a very public situation. Yeah, that is definitely true, but I mean, if you go back and look at the times where. They've been found not guilty, but then a suspension has come. It's usually a very, it's a much more significant crime being accused that's kind of been thrown out. So I don't expect a suspension. If we had video of it, I'd be more worried. Yeah, Alvin. Joe Burrow, third and check down rate in the league. Yeah, Burrow loves checking it down. I think I'm in agreement. I think Joe Mixon is a value. I get people not wanting to draft him.

And I get people for his off the field stuff. And I get people not wanting to draft him for on the field. It's like, is Joe, he's a good pass catcher, but is he a great running back? I mean, I don't know. I mean, he's essentially like when you look at his efficiency over the last four years of his career. It's declined for sure. He's sitting right at four yards of carry. And that includes two seasons. under four. One of them was six games, so maybe he had time to get that 3.6 up. But it's like, this is, he feels more like Najee Harris when it comes on the ground, but his pass catching role is, hey, the numbers are the numbers. But the pass catcher roll, his is much safer, I think, than Najis. You know what's crazy is part of the, part of the sell to me is that you have a football team with Joe Burrow, who's not yet paid, right?

Correct. He hasn't. Herbert got his. So you have this team that's like in the hunt and their entire administration decides they don't need to go get a running back. Like there's something to be said about that. That is a little bit surprising. Yeah, especially when there have been running backs out there that they could have acquired. I'm going to hop in because, you know, I just talked about the way to find a value is positive touchdown regression versus, you know, people that underperformed. No one has ever underperformed in touchdowns in the history of the NFL the way that Deontay Johnson did last year. That is a historical fact. Everyone knows that he got the goose egg zero touchdowns. He had 147 targets and zero touchdowns. I mean, that should be in the Guinness book. That's like. Jacobi Myers would hang with him. Yeah. I mean, how do you do it? Jacobi Myers is such a good example here because Jacobi Myers, the year prior, was that dude. He had so many.

It was a storyline. It was like, is this the week he's going to finally catch a touchdown? And then eventually he did and all of that. And so you go, well, he's not a touchdown guy. He's a guy that, you know, can get 100 and whatever targets and get no touchdowns. Well, Jacobi Myers last year had six touchdowns. You know, it bounced back for him. Deonti Johnson is a very talented player. He was my bust pick on last year's episode, and that was good. It was on the basis of the fact that rookie quarterbacks don't support a top 36 wide receiver. 70% of the time, a rookie wide receiver, the rookie quarterback's wide receiver won is the wide receiver 39 or worse on average. So.

If earning targets as a skill, as we often say, then Deonti Johnson is as skilled as it gets in the NFL. If you look at players who have had a 23% target share over the last three years, it is a list of superstars and Deontay Johnson. It's Keenan Allen, Debo, Samuel, Stefan Diggs, A.J. Brown, Devante Adams, Justin Jefferson. Cooper Cup. He would have really liked it if you had just said it's a list of superstars. Yeah, I know. He would have appreciated the period at the end of that sentence. It would have been great. I do think that Deonté Johnson is limited versus those other guys. Those other guys have some physical traits and talents like Debo Samuel and A.J. Brown and, you know, just a much bigger, stronger athlete than what Deonti Johnson is. But you've got Keenan Allen on that list, too, a guy that's just...

much more similar, just always getting open, always a great route runner, catching the ball, doing great stuff. And in a PPR league, he's going to be outstanding. But last year, he finished as, I believe, the wide receiver 39, and that was, that's almost where he's being drafted right now. He's being drafted at the wide receiver 34, and that was with zero touchdowns. Can he pick it? We haven't talked about him. But he's looked good this preseason. He's had a really, really good preseason. I think his reads, his throws, he's had touchdowns in preseason. And when you look at rookie quarterbacks versus sophomore quarterbacks, that is always the biggest jump. The biggest leap for them is their touchdown percentage rate. If that goes up, and Deonté Johnson just stays as a primary target, which he will, and he gets touchdowns, there's no way he's going to be the wide receiver 35. He's going to beat that ADP.

People are ripping their pants off for George Pickens right now, too. And I think that that is affecting the stability and the ADP of Deonti Johnson. I don't know if you heard this. But like George Pickens is a highlight machine. So he gets posted around on Twitter and it's easy to find videos of George Pickens' greatest hits. Yeah. Ryan Clark just called George Pickens more talented than Justin Jefferson on national television. What are you doing, Ryan? So when I say that like players like that are exciting, I've heard it from the Sealer fans. And I'm not saying George Pickens is incapable of giving you some great games, but you are kind of passing over the guaranteed target share for the, I don't know, excitement, one-handed catches, backflips of George Pickens. And Pickens wasn't a player that was able to demand targets last season.

Yeah, I mean, it's simple math. You know, the wide receiver 35 is where he's being drafted over the last decade. That player averages 100 targets, the wide receiver 35. I mean, Deonti Johnson is going to have 140 targets, but he's guaranteed at least 120. And at 120 targets, that should be 10 spots higher in ADP. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You had the most like sliced alone. pause in your speech ever. Oh man, two slide references in a show. All right, Mike, I am very excited to hear this value pick that you have selected for today's show because I want to like I'm willing to receive. I have no opposition or excitement for this player thus far this off season. I have been very neutral. I am sitting me and Jason both right around ADP. I want to hear the case for your guy.

And my excitement lies only in his ADP. Is this player good? I don't know. I do not know. But I know that he's going to have a massive opportunity and you aren't paying up. This is not a dead zone running back in the back of the third or the fourth that you're just like, is this player good? I don't know. But I like his opportunity. He's going in the seventh on Sleeper as the running back 28. And it is. It's Rashad White. Rashad Wade, a third round pick just last year. So he's coming into his sophomore season. He was behind Leonard Fournette, aka the dump truck, which we've all been behind a dump truck, and it's hard to pass them on the road because they're just, they're very large, they're very large vehicles. And he just, over the second half of the year, though, he was starting to get used a bit more. But here's where it's exciting. From weeks 10 through 17, 53% of the snap, 17 opportunities a game.

Five top 24 finishes for Rashad White. And the offense just was not exciting at all this past season. It's not really exciting this year. So you can kind of wash those out. But we're talking about looking at rookie running backs with 50 plus receptions and what did they do in their sophomore year. And it's actually a pretty strong hit list of players who game through. It's really basically just like... Duke Johnson and Naim Hines, who are truly satellite running backs, that they failed. But Geo Bernard, 50 receptions, finished as a top 24 running back the next year. Kareem, Alvin Kamara, McCaffrey, even Tariq Cohen is on this list. So it's just players who get used in the passing game. We know it. Two and a half targets, like Andy said, two and a half times more valuable than a carry. And Rashad White should get a whole bunch of targets.

The Buccaneers, much like the Bengals, who lost a big piece of the running back room and then did really nothing about it and it was kind of confusing. Like, Rashad White is the guy. I do like Sean Tucker, who was an undrafted free agent, but he was an undrafted free agent. He had a heart condition that led to that as well. But Rashad White is set up so much. to see all the opportunity. Like he's set up to be the goal line running back, the past catching running back. He's currently set up to be everything for this team, the absolute main guy. Will Baker target the running back position like Tom Brady did? Well, Baker checked it down 11.9% of his attempts with Carolina and Los Angeles last year. That was the highest in the NFL. So expect Rashad White to see a whole bunch of work. Is he actually good?

That's kind of TBD, but the fact that his draft price is where it is, I think he represents a great value at the running back position. I feel like Rashad White has kind of withstood potential challenges all offseason, where this is a team that we said, oh, they'll add somebody. I mean, they're a target to add something. It hasn't happened, right? And then, like, when your biggest competition is Chase Edmonds. Right. You know, then you don't have any competition. You know, Rashad White. Kishon Vaughn is still there. Yeah, and he's fallen behind Chase Edmonds, which tells you everything you need to know about him. Rashad White is going to have opportunity in this offense. And they've also... Exactly. Full stop. I mean, that's it. I mean, you lost Russell Gage, you know, like the distribution tends to lend itself to running backs when you lose valuable targets in the receiving game at wide receivers. So...

Look, he's a fine flyer where he's going. Exactly. I am blind to him. Which I don't. I was, I spent most of the offseason like, I'm not, I don't want anything to do with Rashad White. Because I figured he'd, I figured his ADP would get pumped way up. Yeah. And he would be a dead zone running back. And yet he has just stayed. I think because. because of the stink of the quarterback competition, it has depressed the ADP of everybody for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I do completely understand your argument. Like, I fully, fully get it. He's got opportunity that you can't usually get in the eighth, but I just went and I checked my underdog exposure. I don't know how many 50, 60 leagues I've got. And I was like, I wonder, because I just, I'm blind to him. I just, I never want him. And I was like, how many leagues have I,

Taking him in, zero. Yeah. Because you don't see his name in the list. Yeah, exactly. It's like, I've never had the opportunity to draft him. Which I don't blame you. All right. I've never had the opportunity. You've had many, many opportunities. No, I've never seen his name. It just skips. There's a black line over his name. Which means that if any of you out there would like to. play against Jason in the Megalobole. You will have every opportunity to draft Rashad White that you would like. He's a great value I hear. Please head over to megalobole.com for all the entry details. And we will be back with another episode tomorrow for you. Thank you for joining us today for all the debates, disagreements, sliced alone. We'll catch you tomorrow. See you. Goodbye.