Favorite Stacks + ADP Risers, Megalashow! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/11

On today's episode, we talk about some players that we see rising in ADP over this offseason. We jump into all of your questions because it is a mailbag show and a huge announcement for a huge anniversary. You don't want to miss it. Make sure you subscribe right now and enjoy the show. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in one and all. Well, you just, you just time out the space. You still, you could have jumped in like at the normal spot. I did. You just missed it. You went to a, I welcomed everybody in. A supersonic frequency that human ears cannot perceive. It was there, Mike. All right. I promise. Welcome in. The fantasy footballers podcast, Tuesday, June 11th. Happy to have you with us. Jason Moore is here.

black shirt today black hat today i went black shirt black hat today uh and if you want to watch youtube uh stay tuned for thursday because i'm not going to tell you what i'm going to wear but it might shock you it wasn't always this way no it wasn't always this way you had much more variety far fewer hats yeah and then i got much bigger and much less hair so it's like this is Perfect. But you, I mean, obviously at some point in time, you decided this was the best way to deal with both of those issues. It's just the best I can do. You know, we're all out here trying to do our best. Trying to do our best. And that's all I'm just a man of the people. It's just people can't tell the difference between this show and any other show. No, no, no. It was exact same. It was funny to see the montage of like weeks of me very quickly changing. And it just, it doesn't look like a montage. It doesn't just looks like there's some choppy video.

Mike Wright is here with us. Indeed. Excited for today's episode. We have an ADP question. A quick question of the day. We'll get to momentarily. But first, don't sing. It's a big one. Go ahead. It's a big one, people. It is not just a live show. Not just a live show. a Megalah show. It is the fantasy footballers 10th anniversary live megala show in L.A. We are doing it up special. We are doing it up unique. And we want you there at the Palace Theater for our 10th birthday. Like this is a 10th birthday is a big birthday. And we want you there. Double digits. You don't even have to bring presents. No, just be there, man. Yeah, be there. You are our present.

Exactly. And by the looks of the 10th anniversary of Megalus show graphic, we will be wearing cowboy outfits riding a giant shark. Or at least that's the theme of the event, because that is this show. We got to get a price check on, can you rent Jaws from Universal? The old one? Like, does he still, do they still have that tour thing where Jaws comes out? Yep. We can borrow him for a day. See, the deucer said if you had gone with, your presence is our present. That would have been like a fun play on words. They're very proud of that. Yeah. I'm sure they took 30, 40 seconds to figure that one out. Good job, guys. It is our 10th anniversary Megalus show live in Los Angeles, Saturday, August 24th at the Palace Theater. Tickets available now at ballerslive.com. They will sell out. We want you there with us. So please go grab the best seat in the house.

and come join us, which is basically every seat in the house. Which is any seat. I hate how they, full disclosure. The mezzanine, when you go to ballerslive.com, it looks like, oh, that's super far away the way they display it. It's not. There's no bad seats in this place. No, the mezzanine sits above the other seat. Therefore, they're in the same depth. Exactly. Which means you can catch a t-shirt. I was going to say, I'm not firing my t-shirts to the front row. Kill a man. Yeah, the mezzan gets the shirts. And, yeah, ballerslive.com. Tickets available now. We want to see you there. Very exciting. Looking forward to that. That'll be towards the end of August, August 24th at Palace Theater. Great venue. It should be a lot of fun. It will definitely. What is this should nonsense? It's just conversation. It's not a good pitch. It will be. It's a 10th anniversary. We will have special things planned. It's a special show that we don't want. We will spend money. We shouldn't.

Oh, we're going to lose so much money on this. To do something we should. Again, price check on Jaws. We can look into that. We can look into that. I don't know if you need to go to one of those movie memorabilia websites, the auctions. Somebody has to have the original Jaws for now. And I will ride him into the palace theater. Oh, man. Quick question of the day. What player do you expect to see rise the most in average draft position throughout the off season? which we've had a couple of mock drafts in recent weeks. There are players whose values are currently, you know, not very high that we know aren't realistic for the way they're going to end up in the midst of draft season in August. You have the primary one that I think when we're on the mock draft show, we just know. Like we know from experience. We know from, you know what's about to play out that one of these guys is just completely mispriced. So should I not even mention my guy?

No, you should. Too obvious? You should mention him first because he's the true, like, if you're in drafts right now, this will not be his price later. I will mention him with an asterisk to include some other players. Jonathan Brooks, rookie running back of the Carolina Panthers currently drafted in the ninth round. We know the facts around rookie running backs and opportunities and the fact that two, at least two rookie running backs have finished inside the top 24 every year since 2012. So he has good odds of being one of those two. The depth chart, it's not intimidating in Carolina. He fits the mold of what Dave Canales wants to do with a pass catcher, somebody who's versatile like Rashad White. And so Jonathan Brooks, right now, not even close to where he's going to be drafted, assuming, you know, his injury doesn't have an extra issue or something weird at camp. But Jonathan Brooks, ninth round, is going to be much, much higher. But I will say that, like, this is going to be true of several rookies, whether it's...

Debt chart battles and where you figure out where they actually stand on each of these teams, opportunities like that. Hype train. Yeah, those things are just going to happen. Yeah, you start seeing Keon Coleman being reported that he's got a great rapport and he's dominating in the red zone drills. All of a sudden he's going to be, you know, flying through it. When I look through, I try. Right now and he's a ninth. He's almost directly next to Jonathan Brooks. Yeah, I tried to avoid a rookie simply because. I mean, it's kind of a cheat code right now if you're in other drafts. Drafts, because they're not where they're going to finish. The guy that I am going to bring up as an ADP riser is just the guy I've believed in for as long as I've been alive. Zach Moss, superstar running back for the Cincinnati Bengals. Right now he's the running back 31. Just one spot ahead of Jonathan Brooks is the running back 32 in the ninth round. And this is a player that I think right now,

People don't want to say that he is the starter, that he's going to be the primary dominator of touches. They're not sure. Maybe it's Zach Moss and, you know, maybe it's who's it? Chase Brown? Chris Brown. Chase Brown. Chase Brown showed a lot of juice in very few plays last year. I just cannot believe that it's going to be Chase Brown. He was, I mean, he had an opportunity to get use. He, he didn't. They go out and they sign a guy that fits their system perfectly in Zach Moss. So I think as we get closer and it becomes more established, I think beat reporters will start saying this is Zach Moss's backfield. Brown will mix in a little bit, but it'll be primary Moss. Breaking news. I was going to bring it up. It's pretty important. Yeah. We have.

Our research team is just outstanding. Are we sold out at the palace theater? No, that's like 10 minutes from now. The original Jaws animatronic shark, nickname Bruce the shark, is on display at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles. Based on Mike's research, Mike, break it down. 9.6 miles from the palace theater. That's where Jaws is. So it's a 25 foot, 1,200 pound shark. So logistically. It's going to take the whole foot clan to get it over there. When they made Jaws, they made him 1,200 pounds? Animatronics in the 70s? You kidding me? That's pure steel and son, baby. I was going to say they only had steel probably. But if there's someone who works at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles and you want to parade Jaws down the street, just 10 miles. I was going to say the easiest way to get him there is to parade Jaws down the street. I'm going to ride him.

Yeah, make it a big deal. This is supposed to happen, everybody. So do that. I imagine it takes a little while to get pushed 9.6 miles on a mechanical start. The Academy Academy Museum of Motion Pictures. It's almost next door. Okay. So close. I'm asking chat GPT how we can get this done. Oh, really? Yeah, they said they can't assist with that. It's illegal. You get back to me. Oh, it's illegal. Yeah. Well, we're borrowing. We're not going to keep it. Yeah, no, no, this is nothing illegal. We're just borrowing it back. Whenever you have to announce it's nothing illegal at the top. He says even borrowing without permission is still illegal and unethical. We're getting permission. Bodying me on my morality? You're a robot. It doesn't say at the end. Take a look at the mirror, pal. Yeah. Mike, who is your, who is your ADP riser? Somebody that you think is going to shoot up draft boards. So I believe we've kind of mentioned him.

recently in passing, but it's Jerome Ford is right now the RB 42. He's going in the 12th round. He's there right now because people are leaving margin and hope for Nick Chubb to come back from his devastating knee injury. I'm just on the side of I don't, I don't think that Chubb's going to be ready to start the season. Who knows if he's ever going to be good this season? Like back to being anything close to Nick Chubb. And last year, Jerome Ford was the RB17. He was a top 24 running back 11 times. 11 times. And with the information we have right now, Ford would project to be the guy who gets the most work. He's been with the team for years. One, they keep bringing him back. Two, he was pretty good for them last year.

You know, he was third on the team and targets per route run. So he's getting those targets that are super valuable on top of all the work that he got on the ground last year. So if, as we get closer. I think Chub's going to be one that moves up too. He could. Potentially because two videos of Nick Chubb running and he's going to shoot up draft board. Which we will see before the season starts. I just saw it. Yeah. You'll see Nick Chubb running. But we saw Javante Williams running. Like this is why. Just beware. Beware of these injuries. There are Adrian Peterson's in the world. They exist. There's some Wolverine blood going around for some of these elite athletes. But most of them, it takes real time to recover. And that's why, as of right now, I'm betting against Nick Chubb. And Jerome Ford in the 12th feels like a free running back. Matthew Betts, our injury expert, he just posted a chart.

on the injury dip. Do you guys have that accessible? Yeah, it was it was it was it was like 71 percent. Yeah, basically we had him we've done this for years now. We've we've asked him to compile the guys who are lower in ADP because of being injured or recovering from an injury and then we look after the season what that expected ADP was versus how they finished. buying the injury ADP last year in 2023 resulted in 71.4% of the time failing to meet that ADP. And keep in mind, that ADP is the bargain ADP. It's already a depressed ADP. So, I mean, sure, sometimes it's not 100%, 71%. So, you know, 29% of the time they are meeting it. But if you're just going to end up needing to.

We talk about this all the time on the show. We're making calculated bets that we are just trying to get better and better odds of being right. This is like a clear, clear cut bet that you make. If you can be up at 71% of the time being correct on a take, then don't draft guys. You know, they're coming off the training camp hamstring injury that's kept them out all summer. But they're back. They'll be fine for week one. Adrian Peterson is the one that ruins the situation is because, you know, or even like, like Brees Hall is one of those players that technically outperform their ADP due to injury dip. But it wasn't a fun ride. Like the ride, it took a while to really get what you wanted. So, you know, don't let the outlier be the rule and leave you disappointed because it's going to take high draft capital selection sometimes. There will be outliers, but it's finding edge and a 70.

percentile edge in fantasy football is. That's massive. And to speak to Jerome Ford, you know, obviously they brought in Deont to Foreman. And so there could be some debate as, as to whether, you know, Foreman will take that big body chub role. But Ford was pretty darn good. And I don't think he's by any means some sensational running back. But he is very serviceable, very capable. He's 210 pounds, runs a 4-4-6. He's not a bum that can't handle it obviously we saw him thrust into that role and we have to keep it my cream hunt cream hunt was a part of this last year and he's gone yeah yeah yeah so it's almost hard to remember that feels like it was you know forever ago but last year cream hunt got a ton of work and he's not on the roster all right let's talk about some news news and notes from around the league it was very uh enjoyable to me to watch kairn williams return to the field he and run through drills

That's because you traded for him. Yep, that's how it works. Last Thursday, he came back to the field, so that was good because he had a minor issue that was, you know, I mentioned a trade offer to you, Jason, and you were afraid by his injury. It worried me for a little bit because, you know, he had dealt with a foot injury before and, you know, that Kyron's only knock has been injuries. He's awesome when he's on the field, but he has a smaller back and... has an extreme workload. I'm still very, very much in on Kairn Williams. Big offensive line upgrades there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Shane Steichen said Anthony Richardson is dealing with some soreness. This made headlines. He was throwing with his left hand, not his right. He said, quote, rest assured if we had a game on Sunday, he'd be out there. Throwing with his left. Yeah, he's ramping up, but you just don't want to hear about it at all.

Right. You don't want to hear about it. The timeline was that he's supposed to be okay by training camp. We're not there yet. So the OG timeline is like he's still in recovery, and we have seen him throwing powerfully with his right, but obviously he's getting sore right now because he hasn't been doing it through the entirety of the recovery. So this is somewhat to be expected. I will say this. I don't know if you guys watched the video of him in the camp because he throws at the end of this big long drill where he's. you know, doing all this footwork exercise looks great at it. But I'm telling you right now, if he has to play lefty, it's not going to work. That throw was terrible. It was like, it was a full 10 yards over the guy's head. Still powerful arm. Breaking news can't throw with opposite hand. And so I just want us to be aware. Maybe that's why he's practicing. We don't have. Oh, just in case. We don't have left hand rankings for all the right hand quarterbacks on the UDK. The offhand? Yeah, the offhand.

Darren Waller, guys. Oh, we have another announcement. Ugoo goodbye. This is. Darren Waller has finally, officially retired from the NFL. This will be the last time we announced his retirement, I hope. Can you retire a retirement statement? Because that's what I'm going to do today. He is gone. One year in New York. Yeah. Draft in 2015. It's a sad day for the show. It's a bummer. Darren Waller was. The year it happened, it was so much fun. It was a big hit for the show. The Walleris is a nickname that will hang from the rafters. And it's sad to see him go. But his body is done. His body's not playing football anymore. It is funny to think like he had a nine year career. And he only had two seasons. Yeah. Yeah. A lot of potential. And was in the upper echelon for a little while there. What else do we have?

Really important announcements. Mediocre signing of the week. The drop might be longer than tenure with the team, but Sterling Shepard, one year deal with the Bucks and the chiefs have re-signed McCall Hardman. The Bucks are doing weird things because we had the announcements, you know, that we're going to move Chris Godwin back into the slot where... When Chris Godwin was great for fantasy football and looked like he was actually the number one wide receiver on the bucks, he was playing in the slot. Yeah. And then, like, they're making all these moves where I'm like, though. Well, they drag Jalen McMillan. Jalen McMillan's a slot player. Yeah. Yeah. Sterling Shepard. Yeah, I would think that he should be in the slot at this point. He can play outside, but he's great the slot. Honestly, I think Sterling Shepard is just a.

a really great NFL water receiver or has been for he's 31 years old. A long time ago he was. Yes, yes, yes. But they just, they're doing some weird stuff. Yeah, I mean, what do you trust? I don't trust that Chris Godwin is going to rejuvenate his entire career. I trust the fact that they're making moves that are contingency plans. Could be. Trust actions, not words. And McCall Hardman back. And I, you know, that matters in as much as he's going to be one of the active game they. wide receivers for this team so you know they have a whole bunch of players at wide receiver and when hardman's there that means the justin ross truthers are going to be let down or whatever you know whatever the case may be it's going to be like hardman's just hitching a ride man yeah maybe he's going to be their kick return or something i am so excited yes for the return the new rules i am so excited to see the new

kick return stuff. I forget it. It's happening this year. It's completely different now. The kickoff has been modified. Listening to coaches talk about how they, how, well, let me re-clarify. Listening to really smart, good coaches, talk about how much they're working on the kick return and all the data that they're getting on how they think that, you know, successful kick returners will have what, like over a hundred. carry 100 touches 100 touches in that aspect of the game and that they will i mean this is going to be a big part and it's funny because every year every single season you wait all year fantasy football season kicks off in august september comes around you got preseason and then you all gather for the kickoff the first play of the season and watch it going to the to just not now it's like okay we'll be back after commercial it's like i'm now we get to see something

Mike McDaniel came out and said that he would not be surprised if within three or four weeks all the wide receiver ones and the skill position players were begging to have opportunities to return kicks. Because the league has set up the new rules in a way where the statistics show that injuries are not going to be a disproportional aspect of the play. And you're going to have, it's more beneficial for the kick to land and be received and run back. And so. Because they're moving it out to what now? Isn't it like? If it's a touchback? Yeah. Yeah, it goes back further. I don't know if you have the exact number here, Kyle. It goes basically back to the, I think it's a 25 or the 35. I thought it was something crazy like the 35. We'll look that up. Yeah. It's been a while since it was announced. But I'm just excited for the opportunity for skill position players and other players to, you know, produce plays that matter for fantasy.

And yeah, you know, most leagues don't count return yards, and it's going to be touchdown specific. But if my guy gets 100 chances to score a touchdown, I'll be excited. Yeah, it goes to the 30-yard line. Okay, 30. So that just means, you know, if you're a special teams or head coach, you know, one of those coordinators, you're saying we got 30 yards to get a guy to tackle them to where it's a net positive for us. So you're going to be kicking it to the player over and over. And if you've got a Devon A-chan back there. returning kicks, that's going to result in a couple touchdowns. So look at your league scoring settings because some, I think every league should reward special teams touchdowns to the player, but I think it's still in the minority that do that, but there's a healthy amount that do. Even rookies with opportunities on kickoffs like Trey Benson in Arizona, does he get a chance to do that like David Johnson did? It'll be fun to see, fun to watch.

All right, quick break back with some mailbag. All right, let's jump into it. Mailbag. Mailbag. All right, if you have a question for the show, go to the website, the Fantasy Footballers.com, click the submit a question button or dial our voicemail. Hotline 302464 TFFB. We got a voicemail today, Al? We do. All right, let's do it. Ballers, this is Bradley from up in Canada. Super curious to know your guys' favorite stack going into the 2024 season. Appreciate it, fellas. Bonjour. Yeah, favorite stack. Is this including ADP? I mean, or is this? Yeah, no, this is including ADP. Like, if you're looking at the 2024 season, what have you been targeting? I could say that the one I have the most right now is that I think we, we, I think, Andy, did you do this on the mock? It was that three, four turn of grabbing Jalen Hertz and Avanti Smith together.

It's easy to do, and you're not grabbing two onesie positions. So I like that. I will throw out that I think it's the best year ever, even though you don't know where to target it. There's going to be success with Mahomes. Mahomes is cheaper than ever falling to the fourth round. You don't usually get that in the last couple of years. He's been a second round pick. And then his wide receiver options, because they are a little bit more nebulous and you're not sure if it's going to be Hollywood Brown or if you want to wait on Rushie Rice or whatever. But all of their values, they don't cost a lot.

It's an actual easy stack to pull off that could be very valuable down the road. And even though I don't like to do the two early onesy positions, like the cost right now on the Kelsey Mahomes and just like own that and hope that the chiefs have, you know, a bounce back to what they have just, just near what they've been averaging the previous five years and touchdowns per game. That could be very valuable for fantasy. I could see Jane Reed, Jordan Love happening. Sure. For later round stacks where. You know, you get it more upside. My favorite stack considering you get a little bit of a later quarterback. It's Jamar and Joe Burrow. Like Joe Burrow is going right now as QB7 over on Sleeper. So like if for high and wide receiver budget quarterback, the Kyler Marvin Harrison Jr. stack is very interesting as well. And then I, if I leave.

I've talked about Jared Goff as kind of my safety net at quarterback. If I can leave the draft with Amman Ra and Jared Goff, like I'm happy. At least the first two weeks, maybe Jared Goff isn't my entire answer at the quarterback position, but I have the confidence to at least those two games, that's fine. I'll start with golf. Amman Ra is the seventh pick off the board. So is that something where if you ended up in that position where you could draft Alman Rae, you are actively changing your quarterback strategy? I don't know that I would actively change it. To seek out the stack? I'm going to make sure that whatever, if I'm using the UDK or if I'm using an old man printed sheet like Andy, like I'm making sure that I have a note that I'm not going to forget that like before you select your quarterback, make sure you like this ADP, you got on and wrong. You can get golf later if you want them. Yeah, and that's one of those things where it doesn't change your strategy. Like now I'm absolutely targeted golf, but it is, oh, should you go through the draft and now you're in late?

quarterback mode, then yeah, if you're like, oh, like I'm looking at ADP and it's like, oh, Justin Herbert and Jared Gough are going near each other. Well, complete that stack. It does work in redraft leagues as well. It's not just a best ball tournament. I mean, if you're playing basketball, you pretty much have to stack. But we had one of the Disorbo brothers do a study on this for redraft leagues. And it proved to be valuable in redraft to have that stack. So, you know, put them together. All right. By the way, I do my cheat sheets on typewriter. actually, Mike. It's typewriter. Grant says, is Drake London off your board if you drafted Bijon? If not, is adding Kirk Cousins late in the draft too many players from one team? Someone likes their Falcons. Yeah, man, if I start my team with Bijon, it's so, that's so difficult to have such over exposure to pure hope where, like, the Falcons.

have not, we don't have a track record here of like this is the Aaron Rogers Green Bay Packers where you're like, yeah, I'll just, I'm a load up. Like Prime, Prime Rogers, everyone on that team was great or like the Peyton Manning years when he was on the Denver Broncos. You could, you could be just overexposed to that team because you know it's going to be great. Drake's a second round pick. You can't do this. Yeah, you can't do this. And there's no. He's really in the second? Two six. There's no reason to do this. I can't do it. It's not to say that there isn't a world that exists where both those players end up beating their ADP at the same time. And it works out. Again, we're just trying to bet on probability. And probability says that that both those guys don't out.