Favorite Stacks + ADP Risers, Megalashow! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/11

standingly outproduced their ADP. And in a way, you know, we talk about the stack because you get double touchdowns at the same time. So it's a weak winning performance that you get. When you've got a running back on a wide receiver from the same team, they're going to kind of inverse correlate because, you know, every Bijon touchdown is a touchdown that won't be scored by Drake London. But the problem with Drake London is right now, let's take Bijon out of the equation. I'm okay drafting Drake London, but he is darn near being drafted at his ceiling already. You know, he's sandwiched right now between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Devante Adams. If you go wider, you're talking about Chris Olave and you've got whatever Texan wide receiver you want. Like, there's no reason to put all your chips in the Falcons basket. You know, all of a sudden, Kirk Cousins has a problem with the Achilles, doesn't come back, and now your first and second round pick are just toast. No. Yeah. If you told me it was a flyer,

on a guy in the eighth round that happens to be on the same team. I don't care at that point. These are two have to depend on them selections. Yeah. So when the question is like, is he off your board? No, he's not off my board if he falls to the fourth, but he won't fall to the third. So yeah, he's off my board. Regardless of the Bijong question where he's going. Like Drake London this year just seems risk. I can't see myself drafting him right. I can see myself drafting him, but I will. fully admit that the risk-reward balance scale is far more on the risk side when you factor in where he's going and what you could take instead of him. I can't imagine you on the board with Marvin Harrison Jr. Oh, no, no way. There's a couple. There's still a couple at ADP. I have other wide receivers ahead of them. Right, right. Yeah. YouTube question from JJ. He says, will Pat Friamuth have a career year due to Arthur Smith?

Probably not. Probably not. I think absolutely yes. Mike? The question is because last year, 34% of Atlanta's targets went to the tight end position. Now, that was number one in the NFL. It was mostly split up between Jono Smith and Kyle Pitts to the point of not really pleased with either of those guys if you were starting them on a continual basis. And is that what Arthur is going to do again? Like, will he? find another player on the team that you end up losing. Like if Fryermew could somehow see a 20 plus percent target share, then yeah, he'd have a career year and he'd be great for fantasy football. I think he's a good tight end who he has enough skills as a receiver that if he gets featured, he can come through. But I just, I don't know that he's going to get that featured role.

Yeah, I mean, when I say absolutely yes, I think he has his best season of his career. That's not to say that he's still good for fantasy. That's, so his number eight finish was 63 for 732 and 2. Exactly. That's a pretty solid year. That's solid, but that's two touchdowns. That's not that great for a fantasy finish. I mean, I know he finishes the tight and eight. I'm not sure I want you to say absolutely yes about me at some point in time. You just said absolutely yes, and then now you're taking it all back. I'm saying that he has his career year this season. I think that's absolutely true, but he can have a career year. He can get to 750 and 4. That's his career year and still not really be a difference maker for fantasy is what I'm saying. But with, I mean, you've got Deontes, Deonté Johnson is gone.

And so the amount of targets vacated, you've got a quarterback change and an offensive coordinator change that seems like it should be improvements for Fryermuth, and he was dealing with injury last year. So if I have to, you know, push my chips somewhere, I believe he has a bounce back season. I think they need him to. Like this offense really needs him to be a quality weapon in the past. I think the big question is just, you know, going into year four, who is Pat Fryer Muth, really? Sure. You know, is he capable of going Ingram and Najoku later in his career? I think so. Or is he more middle of the road where we just accept, like you're not going to build your offense around him. He might score some touchdowns. He might be Kyle Rudolph. That's a tough thing to predict with Arthur Smith and Pittsburgh. The projected. He's also been hurt every year. The projected wide receiver starters for the Steelers right now are George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Roman Wilson.

Yeah. Yeah, they need him. And I do think that he's... Who's their other tight ends? Because that's who I would make him. Well, you have Darnow Washington. Darno Washington is the monstrous beast. Career year. But, you know, I don't see him having... I don't think he's a superstar where you build your office around him, but sticking with the Steelers, like a Heath Miller type, who is very good for a long time. I think that that is in the easy range of outcomes for Fryerbuth. All right, a question from Nathan. He says, do we, do running quarterbacks really take away from overall running back production? They obviously take away volume, but I would expect running back efficiency to be boosted. So we do have data on this. Yeah, I mean, the running back efficiency sometimes is boosted, but in the end, we've got a whole article on this. But since 2015, only one running back.

has scored 15 fantasy points per game alongside a quarterback who scored 100 plus total rushing fantasy points. So it is, it is rare. The ceiling gets lower. Exactly, because the rushing touchdowns from those quarterbacks is one thing, but then also you've got scrambles that don't turn into dump offs. Yep. I think that's the more continuous throughout the game because, you know, you might finish a game. where the quarterback didn't have a rushing touchdown. He didn't vulture a rushing touchdown. But what he did do is on all these plays where a Kirk Cousins would, you know, just check the ball down to the running back because the pass rush is getting there. Lamar takes off or whoever takes off. Anthony Richardson should take off running. It's probably their best play. Yeah, Lamar's teams, they are bottom five in running back target percentage. And then over the last two years, Jalen Hertz, the Eagles have been 28th in targets to the running back position. That's a...

It's one of the reasons I did move Sequin in our League of Record was fear of that situation. I guess I'm just asking Jonathan Taylor with how you guys feel about Anthony Richardson and then, you know, Sequin Barclay with Jalen Hertz. Like, do you factor this question into the considerations there? I do. Again, this is really ceiling where. Jonathan Taylor to me, at least what I watched last year was that's a guy who could still be the RB1. In the framework around him, it'll be really difficult for him to get there because of receptions. You have to have receptions. But for me, like Sequin, the fact that you have so many Jalen Hertz, one-yard touchdowns, at least we did last year. And not even just the one-yard of.

Sometimes they'll get to the two and they say, we're going to do this two times in a row and see if it works. You have that combined with low target share plus Sequin's age. Barkley's an interesting fantasy player for me this year where I can see every single path and talk myself into it. But at the end, I'm just, I don't like his ADP and I don't think he's going to be on a lot of my teams. I will say this, the one running back who. had 15 fantasy points per game with the Russian quarterback, Seiguan Barclay with Daniel Jones. Also, so that the folk clan has good context here when we say that, we really are just talking about upside, not whether they're good for fantasy. Last year for context and half PPR, there were only five running backs who scored 15 fantasy points or more on a per game basis, one of which was Alva Camara, who obviously you got to go per game because he missed a big chunk of the season. So, I mean, you're talking about the best of the best who get to that point in half PPR.

So, like, can Jonathan Taylor be the number one running back? Probably not. Can he still be outstanding for fantasy football and, you know, the running back five or six? Yeah, I think it can. For the fun of it, I wanted to look back at last year's stats and see the rushing leaders at the quarterback position. Okay. Number one. This is where I'm going to fill in the blank. Oh, okay. What are we doing? Yardage. Yeah. Because I was just saying you could think in your, you could think real quick about what the running backs did. rushing yardage for quarterbacks? Yeah, like Lamar. Lamar was one. Okay. Fields was two. Oh, Fields was two? Yeah. Hertz was three and we're at six hundred and five yards. Josh Allen was four. Yeah. Joshua Dobbs was five. Dude, yeah. That's why he could stream him sometimes. Payson Hill counted in our stats as sixth. Then it was Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Okay. Russell Wilson still at eight last year with 341 yards. You did not have.

I mean, that's like less than a third of the quarterbacks at 300 or above. Yeah, I mean, obviously. No Richardson. We add in Anthony Richardson and Jaden Daniels and Tyler for the season. So I think it should have more of an impact this season. Unless three of them just get knocked out hurt over year. Sure. I mean, one of those wasn't hurt last year. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Quick break back on some more questions. Instagram question from Evan Randall says Josh Jacobs or Stefan Diggs. right now they're going back to back in ADP on Sleeper right now top of the third they are both being drafted much higher than we think of them I would much rather like if I had to take the gamble I'm taking the gamble with Josh Jacobs I feel like and Jason you've said this like I can see I can see the path for Jacobs to have a great year yeah

I guess I could see that path a little bit for Diggs too, but it's much riskier because of like one team tried to get rid of Stefan Diggs and he's on the older side of the prime. The other team went out and pursued Josh Jacobs to give him opportunities. Yeah, I saw one player be terrible the whole season and I saw one player be terrible for like half a season. So does that mean that you? Between these two, I would take the chance on Stefan Diggs. It's crazy for a terrible season for Josh Jacobs. He had a heck of a middle.

I if I if I have second this is these are both players that I are generally passing on in my draft I like other guys around where they're going and I I see the pathway for them to be unsuccessful at their draft position right now but if I had to pick one of these guys it would be Josh Jacobs I know I've poo poohed a lot on um Is that an absolutely yes, Josh Jacobs, or just a regular yes? That's just a regular yes on Josh Jacobs. There is a clear and obvious path towards fantasy success. He's replacing someone who almost every year was a top 12 running back. He's going to a great offense. Two years ago he led the league in running and he's getting paid a lot of money. So the options for Josh Jacobs to have a great season are certainly there.

ETN is two spots behind him. Henry is five spots behind him. Yeah, I'd rather have both those. Pacheco's around behind him. Yeah, this is why. Todd White's around behind him. This is why I'm not drafting either of those guys, but the pathway is there. Stefan Diggs is tough because even if Stefan Diggs has a good season, and this is kind of my hardest, this is why I'm drafting Tank Dell if I grab one of the three, because I could see all three having good seasons. But the problem is if all three have good seasons, they're coming. in inconsistent formatting. You know what I mean? Like, it's not like all three are going to have good weeks every week. It's going to be this is a Nico week. This is a Diggs week. This is a Diggs week. This is a Diggs week. You taking Mike Evans over Stvon Dix? Yeah, I think, yes, I would take Mike Evans over Stefan Dix. You too, Mike? Yeah. Adele Week. Sorry, I know. That's all I heard. I heard it. Hello? Yeah. I couldn't find the joke, though. Is it me? You're looking for. That's Lionel Richie.

Oh, yeah. Why did you sing that, Jay? Because Adele has a, hello. Oh, that's wrong. It's me. That's a Lionel Richie week. Oh, man. I've been sick all weekend. Can we get Adele to cover that song? Because she's awesome. I just sang Lionel Richie. That song's great, though. I know it is, but it has nothing to do with Adele. They both say hello. Oh, it's the hello from the other side. Yep. That's the one. Oh, dang. Is we going to do a mashup? Is that you getting that going, Al? Yeah, I can handle that. All right, we're moving on. Tileo Crown says, what do you three gentlemen look at when making tears for players? Jason, you're the man to answer this. Yeah, so we look at a lot of different factors. We're trying to group players together with the most likely range of outcomes. It's not just so when we stab people out for the UDK.

We've got their kind of median expected projection in there. We give a risk grading. We give a, you know, an upside meter with them. But when we group them for tiers, there might be two players who are actually pretty close. You might look and you're like, well, these guys are only projected to be two points apart. And there's a tear break between them. That's because we're making intentional efforts to group the players together where we feel like when you draft one of those guys in the tier. At the front versus the back, you've got a similar enough range of outcomes between them. It helps you take the right position every round because you can look and say, I'm maximizing my value. There's so many people left that have the same range of outcome. There's only one guy left at this position with that range of outcome. I'll take that one. All right. Instagram question from Beuland says, am I crazy for being all in, all capitals?

on Troy Franklin. I forgot we had that. Crazy mate. If you're all in, that's crazy. What does it even mean to be all in on drafting him on every single one of your squads? But he costs nothing. Yeah, but that's, there's other guys who cost nothing. So this is wild, okay? Four percent of the 165 wide receivers drafted on day three over the last decade. have hit 10 plus fantasy points in year one. The 4%? 4%. Do you remember earlier this episode when we said a 71% bet is a great bet to take? Yeah. This would be a 96% bet against Troy Franklin being good this season. However, let's just make it a little worse because he's got a rookie quarterback. And so the combination of how a rookie quarterback helps sustain a wide receiver 1 for redraft purposes. I mean, look,

I love Troy Franklin. I'm the Troy Franklin stand here. I don't remember how. I liked him, not as much as you were the captain. I loved Troy Franklin. Absolutely, Captain. I'll stamp that. I'll tattoo that. I was pre-NFL draft. Absolutely yes. I was an absolutely yes on Troy Franklin. I still love his traits. I hope that he works out. I'm 100% betting against Troy Franklin working out this year. Gotcha. What? He's going to be in the gym. That's what I heard. That's what I heard, because we're dumb. We hear dumb things. I don't like it. Switch. Hello from the other side. Happy offseason, everybody. Just imagine what our live 10th anniversary show will be. I don't like Troy Franklin. I didn't like him. Pre-N-FL draft. However, I think that's that's kind of misleading. How so? Because day three spans the fourth round through the end of the draft.

And so many of those, when you're talking about six and seventh round picks, they're all special teamers. Like we should be looking at least at the fourth round and then we should look at. The hit rate is like the guys who do it are actually. We could get up to 10% here. The guys who actually have overcome, they're mostly fifth rounders. Oh, Puka. Puka, Tyreek. So that's the Amin-Raw, St. Brown. I said mostly. Okay. Stefan Diggs was a fifth rounder. Like I said, not misleading at all. Terrible odds. And I did see Sean Payton talking about mims again. Oh, no. He talks about him all the time. No. He does talk about mims a lot. He talked about them all last year. I'm going to get him more involved. You liar. Yeah, but it was as soon as Jerry Judy's gone, I can get mims on the field. Some coaches are going to be so happy that they can just ostracize some of these players on that kick return play I was talking about.

And then think about the conversation you have with the, hey, coach, why am I not getting any wide receiver snaps? You are just too important. You are so important. Except it might be true now. I know. But like Mims, I bet you Mims is returning kicks. Oh, and he'll be exceptional on it. And Franklin will be dying to do it. Yeah, Franklin, get on the field, buddy. Show what you got. Show them after burners. Honestly, him working out in the way that we said would be good for him. That's true. He's 176 pounds. Although I think he was like 180 something at his pro day. Wow. This question comes from Instagram. Nick C. Mitchell, can you explain why you believe in Brian Thomas so much? It's directly towards Andy. Yeah. Andy, you have the floor. Let me see his ADP right now. 904. So I'm very, unlike when we had the discussion about Malik Neighbors, a player that we all love and we believe in, Malik Neighbors is being drafted very, very high.

What is like the ninth wide receiver 19? Oh, you mean like top five in the NFL draft? No, he's being drafted third round, okay? Malik Neighbors is a third round pick. You don't get a discount on taking the chance on the rookie. Brian Thomas being in the ninth round is one of the reasons that I love him. He's got huge opportunity in front of him. He is the best athlete on that team at wide receiver already. Like that's just, it's done. Like they don't have Calvin Ridley anymore. Christian Kirk is a great player. He's a great wide receiver. He's a tactician. He's a route runner. He's not a better athlete than Brian Thomas. Gabe Davis, not a better athlete than Brian Thomas. So I believe that the cream rises to the top and that he's going to have opportunity from the jump. And he'll take advantage of that opportunity. So to me, that is a good bet. Now, if you told me Brian Thomas was being priced at the ceiling, we're not having many conversations about Brian Thomas anymore.

So, you know, that's my number one reason I love him is that right now he sits there as a late 8th, early 9th, flyer pick. He's probably one of the guys liking our quick question that'll rise up the draft boards and ruin this entire discussion. But as of today, that's one of the reasons. And I loved what I saw in film from him. He was one of my favorite players. He was ranked very high in my rookie rankings. So if you go to straight opportunity, I'm going to fall in love a little bit. Yeah, and there's. Like the cut up of Trevor Lawrence just missing on so many opportunities for huge plays, which Kyle just dug this up. Lawrence was second in the NFL and 20 plus area yard touchdowns last year behind Brock Purdy. But there was so much meat left on the bone. And maybe Brian Thomas clicks with Trevor Lawrence and those start to connect more often. This is like the bet to me on Brian Thomas.

Ninth round for, he was the first round, right? He's not, oh, yeah, yeah. Yes, that's, that's, when we talk about targeting rookie wide receivers in your, your fantasy draft, that's what we're talking about. It's guys who were in the first round who are being drafted as afterthoughts, as sleepers. Like, those are the players that you really should, you should load up on those guys. And, like, I didn't like Brian Thomas nearly as much as Andy, but I know. my strategy of going after rookies in a certain position. So that's where I'm going to do it. But my point being, it's more a bet on can Trevor Lawrence take the step that we've been waiting for him to take? Yeah, and it's really touchdowns. Touchdowns to me are the, that's what hasn't clicked for Trevor Lawrence, and that's going to be what makes Brian Thomas actually a star. Do you, how do you feel about Jermaine Burton? Redraft possibilities for Jermaine Burton in Cincinnati.

Because you loved him in, you know, on film. Yes. Alabama. Yep. Yeah, there was so much about his profile to love. No, Tyler Boy drops into the third round, presumably because of off the field stuff, which that's, look, that's a red flag. Like if you're, if some scouts are saying you're a first round talent and you drop into the third because you have already gotten into it with two different coaching staffs. That's a problem. But you can overcome those. Like people evolve, they mature. But in terms of redraft, I put the odds lower because I think that T plays out the year. Yeah, and he's a deep, like best ball. If you want to take some shots in a best ball league on Jermaine Burton, I love that late in your draft because he's someone that could catch a few over the top top behind the defense balls from.

Borough, you know, he averaged over 20 yards a catch his last season, Alabama. But I redraft it does feel difficult behind, you know, without an injury to T. Higgins or obviously Chase. Isaac in California says, hey, ballers, my girlfriend beat me in fantasy in her first year in our league did knock me out of the playoffs and put her into the playoffs. She brings it up anytime we talk about football. Is there any coming back from this? I have been playing for 10 years and this was her first time ever. I would say I don't think you have to, man. That sounds great. Like the losing part, not great. But the fact that you have, you have somebody that you're with who it seems to be like entering a very passionate phase of being a fantasy football player. And you guys, you can share that together. She brings it up every time we talk about football. That's awesome. Congratulations. Yeah, but also you can't come back.

You can't come back. I mean, I agree with Mike. Like, this is really cool. But now you are, you're just a loser. What is death? They never die. You've now got a wonderful partner, you lose her. You know what I mean? Like that's kind of how I feel. Yeah. Forever. Someone still wants to be a loser with you. Right. That's crazy. You know what I mean? Why would she stay? Oh. That's a good point. That's a good point. That's the actual argument here. She turns she could do better. She turns you in a loser. and she still sees redeeming qualities about it. Oh, man. Good for you. What an angel. Yeah. She goes back to back. I'm not going to last. No, good luck, man. Finding somebody new. All right. That is going to do it for today's episode of the show. Come and see us live in Los Angeles, August 24th at the Palace Theater. Ballers Live.com. Head there right now and grab your tickets. We are excited. It's going to be fun. Celebrate our 10th anniversary. My goodness. We got to get that shark.

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theFF ballers.