Fantasy Football - Underrated or Overrated??? - Podcast for 6/19

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday, June 19th, the fantasy footballers podcast. Thank you for listening. Thank you for stopping by. Mike, the fantasy hitman, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Back with you, another episode, a new episode, a brand new segment where... breaking out today. Going to do a little underrated, overrated on the show. We've got a number of topics we've picked out. And two big thumbs. We do. We've got some big thumbs for those watching on the YouTube. But we're all going to weigh in. And I don't know what your answer is going to be to any of them. But we're going to talk through players and offenses and topics within fantasy and scoring systems and all sorts of things related to fantasy and figure out if you believe.

They're underrated or overrated. I can tell you right now my answers are going to be the correct ones. Okay. So it makes it pretty easy. So Jason's confidence, let me go overrated here. I see what you did there. We have a quick question to get through. And we have a little bit of news to talk about before we jump into the segment. A reminder, the Ultimate Draft Kit available right now at Ultimate DraftKit.com. You can follow the show over on X at the FF Ballers. You can grab the mobile app, by the way. The UDK. mobile app is available on all platforms. And then you can watch the show on YouTube. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballer. Subscribe. Click the bell during the season. Mike does a very sweet Sunday live.

oh yes event every single week before the football games kick off where you get to witness him sweating profusely but making all the right calls or some of the right calls yes also sweating on the inside right i don't it's not unpleasant to watch no you in the in the kind of rankings system here in the studio of sweat You're not near the... No, I'm pretty low. No, we got some sweaters in here. Al is, uh, I think Al is number one by a lot. Yeah, he has, I mean, I'm, I'm number two by a lot and I, there is, there's no one in tier two. There's no one in tier two. You used to be an S tier sweater. You were your sweat. I think you're down to A though. Yeah, I think you've dropped and Jeremy, I don't even know if S tier a, a, the only reason we had to make up stands for sweat. Yeah.

Like we were like A's not high enough. We need another one. For the amount he sweats. Mike, if you know it is, if you are sweat. No, it's a different. It's like a gel. Man, he's getting it. He's on vacate. Al's not here inducers out. Of course it's June. So he's gone. He's not here. He's on a well-deserved family vacation. But yeah, no, Mike, if you played pickle and you put on a full parka and a sweater, you would sweat less than Al does in athletic gear. That is. That is true. Yeah. Like, because sometimes you play a team, like pickleball is two on two. And so your teammate does something great. You want to give them a little tap. You want to like get them, you know, don't do that without. Just pat his shoulder. No, no, no. You'll drown. Yeah, it goes. All right, here's our quick question of the day. Hold on. Hold on. Wait, before we're done, Duncan on Jeremy. Okay. I just remembered we were out doing a pickleball game ladder.

like a little tournament and um we got with uh we we faced jeremy and and you were like wow oh yeah we were on his team we weren't on his team we were like wow jeremy you're a little your shirt's a little sweaty because his shirt was unbelievably sweaty. And he informs us, he goes, this is my second shirt. He had already changed. I was shocked. Yeah. Do it work. If you guys hit a chest bump when you're both full? What would happen? Tide a wave. That is how water is created. Okay. Can I move on here? Yeah. Quick question of the day. Doug writes in from Fort Worth, Texas. Hey, Doug.

Says draft is in a week. And I'm splitting hairs trying to decide between T. Higgins and Rashi Rice. Do you have any advice? This one, I want you two to weigh in. My advice is that I have them very far apart. Like it's a very easy T. Higgins for me. You are not, you are not high on Rice. I know that both Mike and I are believers that Rice is going to be more to the clear number one for the Chief's offense. But. I'm definitely on the T. Higgins side here, like easily on the T. Higgins side personally. The reason why is because while we know T. Higgins is not going to be the number one for his team, and Rushi Rice could be the number one for his team. We also know that T. Higgins is definitely the two. For a team that needs to score 30 points every game, we have so many more games of T. Higgins dominating for fantasy. Rushi Rice has a couple of small stretches. You know, the end of his rookie year was like,

There was glimmers. There was promise. Then he comes out sophomore year, three games of awesomeness. So you add the fact that like, okay, is Rashi Rice the number one for his team? I think he is, but he might not be. He might be the number two. Maybe Xavier Worthy steps up. Might be the number three. Maybe Travis Kelsey is still getting 24% targets. It might be just four. guys with Hollywood Brown or even more because Mahomes just spreads the ball around. They got a great defense. They don't need to score 30 every game. So I think there's so much more risk. And also one of these guys is coming off of a season ending injury. One is not like. And has the legal thing in the background with Rashi Rice. And, you know, we have ranked. He's a cumulative. Like if you average our risk rating, he's at 7.7 out of 10 compared to T. Higgins. Who is risky? I mean, he's got injury concerns and risk as well.

Both have similar upside in the UDK. Target percentage, right? You can label them a one, two, or a three. If you just, the target percentage is what's going to matter. Total passing volume in Cincinnati is going to be higher. And so if they have a similar target percentage, you have more reliability there. For me, I'm very comfortable going Higgins here. You pick a different name. We can have the debate about Rashi Rice. Yeah, I'm taking, I think I'm going Rice. If you have to draft a week, the legal thing I think is fair. It's really quiet on that front. Obviously, the closer we get to the start of the season, the more likely it is that the buck will get past another year. Even with the risk of it, a guy who in the first three weeks was averaging a 35% target share from Patrick Mahomes. And I know it's a different team now, but I think Rice goes right back into being the number one and being just a stud in that area of the field.

It is, he was so impactful in those games that sometimes it feels like he played more than he did. Yes, it does. In terms of the way, you know, that's the peak of the fantasy season. He was breaking out. So it will be interesting. And unfortunately, I mean, I know we're incredible legal experts, but we do have more legal things to talk about. Oh, boy. News and notes from around the league. Well, Rashi Rice is legal situation. The buck could get passed to a future year or time. We. are likely to get a conclusion to the Jordan Addison situation, the 2024 DUI speeding situation. There is a jury trial set for July 15th. The expectation that we've heard from multiple sources, including Vikings beat reporter, Ben Gosling, is that Addison will be suspended for the first three games based on the standard policy.

Yeah, that's not done yet, and unless something is determined to be over and above normal, three would be the max. Based on the timeline and trying to get this done right now, the jury trial that's set, it hasn't happened yet, but I assume, and I changed some stats today, to reflect that I believe the first three games will be missed. Three games is, it's not so many that you'd take Addison off your board. It almost is. For you? It almost is for me because of what he rep. It's not like, you know, if you have a superstar, you know, if Justin Jefferson, his teammate misses the first three weeks, whatever. I don't know that just, I don't know that Jordan Addison is a big enough differentiator, like someone that is going to just level up, be so awesome that I'm willing to wait three weeks holding a roster spot. He's got, I mean, his ADP will collapse. Yes. I mean, he will, he will go very, very late in drafts, not be drafted in some.

In that case, I think he could be impactful. Mike, would you still select Jordan Addison? ADP will be everything. Right now, he's going in the middle of the sixth round, wide receiver 32 on Sleeper. That's already low for what he's shown us. He's got a rookie, not a rookie quarterback, but technically a sophomore who is a rookie. And. I think that he would probably drop into the double digit rounds if you're missing three games. And then at that point, you do have to. You don't have an IR spot for him. He sits there. He takes up. You do not. But at that point, I would be willing to take the chance on him because he would, if he will be an incredibly popular waiver pickup. And so, you know, I'm trying to think about that. I'm going to save some fab. I'm just going to get out in front of it, hold him through those three weeks and find out. He is.

definitively the best receiver outside of Jefferson on that team. Oh, yes. And, you know, we'll see what happens with McCarthy. But last year, nine touchdowns in just 15 games played. Has a, I mean, 10 total, right? A nose for the big play. I mean, it just happens with him. So we'll see. But that's the situation with Jordan Addison. Rams head coach John McVeigh came out and said the team is, quote, made progress on a contract extension. How long can you make progress? If they were making progress for months. With Kyron Williams, just let me get in the whole thing out there so you know who we're talking about. But you guys have been eagerly awaiting a Kyran. I mean, we all have, as fantasy managers, been awaiting a Kyran Williams extension. This is the team that's been a fourth rounder on a running back. They spent a second round or third rounder last year. And Kyran's just been the guy. I mean, I kind of look at,

you know, Kyron and Chase Brown, like Chase Brown is like Kyron a year ago, where people still want to know, are you the dude? And then the team went out and they, you know, they brought in Kalil Herbert and it's like, oh, maybe now they don't want him to, oh, no, he's still the dude. Yeah. And then you go into this year and it seems like Chase Brown's the guy. The building loves him. Sean McVeigh loves him, but no contract yet. And so we are, we are waiting. No, no contract extension. He's obviously under contract this year. For Dynasty managers, it makes a huge difference. I think even in redraft, depending on what the deal is, if they pay him a ton of money, you know, it solidifies his spot. It makes me feel a little bit more confident. I personally am already still confident. I don't think that his workload is going to disappear. I believe where he's being drafted right now is behind where he'll finish. Certainly is far behind where he's finished the last two years. And I know last year his efficiency metrics dropped a little bit.

You know, but he still is a goal line monster. RB6, two consecutive years, despite not playing a full season in either of them. So hard to argue with that, but the contract would make us feel very cozy about the workload. The same way we'd feel about James Cook, maybe if he signed an extension, it was a team, a commitment. I mean, we solved the touchdown regression story, but at least you know the guy was going to be the guy. I don't think we have anything else news-wise. Do we have anything back there, Papa Josh? No. That's going to do it. Okay. Well, we will... News this time of year is overrated. Oh, boy. Underrated or overrated. Okay. You got my thumbs figured out. I think so. That's a weird, weird thing to say. All right. We'll start it here at the top. Underrated or overrated. And we'll start with this topic.

Extra flex spots in your league. So think about it. How are we doing it? Think about it for a second. I'll count it down. I'll count it down. No, I'm going to go three to one. Oh, extra flex spots in your league, underrated or overrated. Three, two, one. Okay. We are all unanimously underrated on the extra flex spots. We'll take the layup on the first one. But tell me why. Yeah, I mean, it is so much more fun to play. If you're in a league right now where you've got one flex spot, put a vote to add another flex spot. It makes more fantasy players relevant. It makes the better managers usually do better in those leagues because they are finding the diamonds in the rough. They are mining the waiver wire and finding people that in trade is just like.

Trades. When you have fewer spots, all you're trying to do is I need to get the big boys. I need, I'm trying to trade for Sequin. I'm going to, when you have a second flex spot, it matters. I'm out there trying to get players who I think are on the rise. The way I think about stashing players is a little bit different. And it, it is a more rewarding experience as a fantasy football player. Borderline critical in like smaller leagues too. Oh, yes. Like a 10. person league you should probably have a three flex you could definitely have three flex in there and you know we have our jason i guess is out there with the signs on the anti-kicker movement but part of that is you know you can remove a kick a kicker a position not heavily researched or enjoyed and put in a flex spot where you just have a week to week like more guys get played there's more variability there's more um players to follow that you've made a decision to you know you're not just rolling a random kicker out there

Yeah, if you can find the, you know, when you're the guy that grabs Joanne Jennings for a hot stretch and gets in that second flex spot, it makes a huge difference. This strategy is more fun. And that's really what, you know, we play the game for fun. And so I think it is far more fun with more flex spots. So we all went underrated there. Okay, underrated, overrated, the Washington commander's offense in 2025. So moving forward. The commander's offense, underrated, overrated, three. Two, one. Okay. All right. Two overrated. I went underrated and you both went overrated. I did. So the majority, the majority can speak first. You both put overrated. It was an impressive year. Sixth and points per game last year. Yeah, I mean, they obviously are great. Whenever we talk about the commanders, we talk about, hey, they're a good offense. I've talked about, you know, Brian Robinson. You want to target him at the very end of draft because he's on a good offense.

And while I still see the commanders as a good offense, I think they are overrated. I think that people are expecting their offense to be better in year two of Jane Daniels than in year one. And that makes sense. Yeah, that sounds great to me. Should get better. They were sixth in points per game. They were fifth in total yards per game. Like, they're... not going to top that this season. They had a super easy schedule last year, one of the easiest in the league. That is going completely the other direction this year. You know, Cliff Kingsbury, he's had some good offenses before, but it's also not something that can't be figured out. This was a quarterback that really surprised a lot of teams with how good he was, how mobile. And, you know, year two, it doesn't always get better, C.J. Stroud.

Sometimes the offense can take a hit. The teams in your division have an offseason to game plan to draft and sign players for your division mates. So I think right now that whether if you had to, if I had to put a dollar on whether the Washington commander's offense scores more points or fewer points this coming season, then I would put it on fewer. Where I'm going overrated is it, you know, gives me vibes of not last year's Ravens, but before that, where it was this extremely high-powered offense. I'm not saying they're overrated in terms of I think there's massive regression to the offense overall. I think I think Jaden's the truth. But it's like those Baltimore teams, you were really excited for Lamar. You were pretty excited for Mark Andrews. And then who? Like the...

For a team that's giving this incredibly high-powered offense, you don't want pieces of it because it's so sporadic when it actually happens. And Terry McLaurin won't take the season away from him, not QB, wide receiver 5. But he had under 1,100 yards. And I don't know that that can go up very much. And I like taking the shot on Brian Robinson, too, even Austin Echler, but I don't take the shot on him because I'm excited about their. players and really thinking it's going to work out. It's just a it's a lotto ticket at the end of the draft. Yeah, I mean, I think it is. Also, I saw Debo running roughs. Oh, gosh. Yeah, no, I mean, look, Debo is part of the argument for for underrated. The fact that you have another weapon in the offense that that is going to be explosive play potential. And if you look at the progression of Jaden Daniels, like this is, his stat lines are not like.

something outlier right this is not a 40 touchdown Lamar Jackson passing touchdown season he threw 25 touchdowns his pass attempt pace he's a rookie like he first half of the year he's averaging he was on pace for like 430 passing attempts back half of the year it's like 600 like they gave him more and he did more with it he had prolific fantasy performances against top defenses. You can talk about the schedule all you want. I mean, 36 points against the Eagles. They won the Super Bowl. That's a pretty good performance. 26 points against the top tier Dallas defense a couple weeks before that. Jaden Daniels has proven time and time again that when you doubt him, you regret it. And so I do think that there's a little bit of nuance to the answer because if you want to say overrated for fantasy purposes because of selecting

you know, being able to identify which wide receiver on one giving week or is it Zach Ertz or God forbid Ben Senate or somebody making. I'm willing to change my answer, Washington. Yeah. For Ben. For Ben. Yeah. We put Ertz on the bench and we put a superstar in. But I think the offense itself is, I think it's underrated. I think we, we have seen quite a few offenses that you want to, you want to look to the pushback. And look, it was about Stroud in Houston. It wasn't necessarily that the offense was the top five offense. But like with Detroit, when they've been doubted, they've had multiple years in a row of success. When Miami was doubted with McDaniels, they had multiple years of success before a fallback year last year and half of a to a tongue of Iloa out there. But I do think that the momentum continues. Washington is doing everything right. So that's the site I'm on. I'm going to be the lone commander here.

But we'll take a break and we've got a lot more underrated, overrated to go. All right, you guys ready for our next one? Yes, let me get back. This one, I think, will be a little fun. A little fun. Yeah, because it's very obvious. Let's just get to it. All right, yards per carry in general, yards per carry as a stat, underrated or overrated? Think about it for a second. Those of you out there think about what your answer would be yards per carry underrated or overrated. I wish there was a third here. I wish there was a third sign in some ways. Okay. Let's see. All right. Underrated or overrated. Three. Two. One. Oh. Once again, I stand alone. Here we go.

I fixed my sign. I'm on underrated. That's about where I'm out. Mike turned it sideways. Jason and Mike with underrated. I went overrated on yards per carry. When I saw this in the dock, I just assumed this is an easy three way overrated. The stat is always made fun of. You know, I think Chris Harris has always talked about how bad a stat it is. I feel like I say that. I'm like, here's this yards per carry. I'm like, it's not the best stat. Yeah, it's not the best stat. And so it's so I assumed we would all say. It's, you know, it's overrated. But I want to speak up for yards per carry for a second because the truth is I know that there's different backs. There's goal line backs versus the explosive backs. It's not always fair. You know, the guy who is getting the fourth and one carries all the time. Yeah, that's not going to be as helpful for him. But in the end, efficiency really matters for fantasy football. Yeah, it does. Let me read the best yards per carry out there in the league this last year. In order.

Derek Henry, Sequin Barclay, Jimere Gibbs, Bucky Irving, Jordan Mason, James Cook. Hey, Jordan Mason was good, but yeah, limited touches. He was very good for fantasy when, when he had the job. And so I feel like, yeah, you're right, Mike, even we, we crap on that stat. We say like, oh, yards per carry is not a good stat. I don't know, man, maybe it is. So I'm saying it's underrated in the sense that I was, I'm surprised at your answer. Sure, yeah. I thought you'd go. And Mike, you went that way too. I went that way because of Jason laid out a good argument. And it's to me, if a, if a player is a workhorse, you know, they're getting 200 plus carries. And yeah, well, you know, they're getting all this volume. But I think that does speak to. If you're, if you're a full time workhorse and you're under four or carry, like to me is that, you know, you need to do better. The problem with the stat is.

the team and the offensive line can affect things so much. That's where I would go. And I think that there are some situations where we've watched NFL teams devalue this step. Josh Jacobs got a hefty contract, big deal, 3.5 a carry, his last year in Las Vegas. That number did not rule the day when the team, when Green Bay decided we're going to bring him back in and he was at 4.4 in a new offense. Similarly with Joe Mixen, looked at it as a workhorse. Ken Walker was, I think, sub four last year, and it's like he's forcing more mistackles per run than anybody else in the league. It is a fallback stat sometimes that we use here on the show. It's not complete enough. But that's why I would say it's overrated is that it is not nuanced enough to take away the salting away the game at the end.

The defensive front is not factored in, right? You're facing an eight-man front versus a empty box, goal line carries, fourth down plunges, all of these different things. Now, in the grand scheme, it's pretty good at indicating efficiency over a huge amount of carries. I agree with that. But there's some variability there year to year. Sometimes you get a big play, because we didn't talk about that at all, right? Like, okay, you make a big play. your yards per carry is going to be affected by a 74 yard run, right, in a way that doesn't really show your efficiency on a down-by-down basis. It's just a balancing it. You're not losing 74 on another carry, right, to even it out. So I do think it's a, so I mean, in general, I don't, I don't love the stat. I just wanted to give it its due because we do actually fall into looking at this for legitimate.

real you know we look at the the life arc of running backs a lot of times and as they age and you start seeing those efficiency numbers go down and down it's a really easy thing to look at and say okay you know giovante williams it's like woof you know you've got kind of an easy barometer to know if someone is efficient or inefficient And more often than not, I realize, like everything you're saying is 100% right. It's so not nuanced. There's so much more to whether a running back is good or is not than that silly little stat. But more often than not, it's really helpful and it's correct. I will tell you this. If you are arguing for a player that I disagree with, and I can look at our website and see that his yards per carry have diminished for any sort of trend, I will throw that in your face. I will throw that right in your face.

All right. Overrated, underrated. This one's interesting. Rostering two quarterbacks in a one quarterback league. Two quarterbacks in a one quarterback league. I would say before we vote, you know, there's not something that I think we've prescribed very often. No. So I guess thinking about it fresh. All right. I've got mine figured out. Two quarterbacks in a one quarterback league, keeping them on your roster, underrated, overrated, three. Two, one. Under. All right, we all three. I have turned around dramatically on this. We all went underrated here. And we have a segment on the podcast every single week, quarterback streamer of the week, which is the, you know, the idea there is, look, if you don't have one of those top tier guys and you need to find a good start this week, that's what we're giving you on the show.

But that also presupposes you're grabbing them off the waiver wire. You don't have them on your roster already. And the way that I used to handle that is if I went into, okay, the, I took a later round quarterback. It didn't work out. I can stream. That's kind of the argument, a part of an argument for being able to wait on quarterback is if it doesn't work in the draft, you can stream. And as long as you know the right things to look for, very often you can stream and get. you know, a top 12 performance. You're not going to be streaming the top three guy every week, but you're going to have a strong enough team that you can just find quarterback points off the waiver wire. And the way I used to do it was, I would just drop whoever my quarterback was because I'm like, I'm not wasting a spot on a second quarterback. And just over time, I have run into issues on certain weeks. So I'm like, I shouldn't have dropped that guy. I didn't look at his next week's schedule. It was just, it was, it was.