Fantasy Football - Underrated or Overrated??? - Podcast for 6/19

too rash. I know why it's changed, Mike. Why is that? Because this has changed over time. If you, if you're a long time listener of the show, I mean, we would have, we would have told everybody, you know, when you're drafting a second quarterback, don't do it. There was no need in single quarterback leagues. But there is actually need now because over time. the fantasy football landscape shifts and you know the the late round quarterback model became more and more popular and as that happened and people are streaming more people in your league yeah start holding onto two quarterbacks and as soon as they do

Now all of a sudden, streaming off the waiver wire isn't that good. You've got to look a couple weeks into the future. You've got to play the matchup game like you do. The supply demand has gone down. Exactly. And so right now today in 2025, I think it's an underrated strategy. You also give yourself the opportunity in draft season to go after the big wild card players that could be awesome for fantasy football like Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson or these guys. It's like, I don't want to have that be my quarterback. But what if? You know, I want the chance. Yeah, no, it makes sense. I think it has changed a little bit. We never would have, I think, voted that way about five years ago. No. And even in the draft, I would, years ago, I would never have drafted two quarterbacks. It was. And then, you know, finding a late round guy who runs as opposed to, hey, I'm going to take my shot on this sleeper. And I hope in four weeks, three to four weeks, I know if this guy's going to pay off.

with a quarterback, Justin Fields go out. If week one, he runs for 75, throws for 180 and two touchdowns, people are going to be sweaty for Justin Fields immediately. I just think the timing of knowing if that quarterback is going to pay off, I think there's a slightly higher probability you'll know early, and then you can make moves accordingly. Yeah, no, that makes sense. All right, next one. Mike McDaniel as a play caller. So the Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel going into year four. Underrated or overrated. We'll see what the reaction is like after last year. Underrated, overrated. Mike McDaniel as a play caller. Three, two, one. I'm going over. Overrated. I'm going overrated as well. I took underrated. Okay. The cheese continues to stand alone over here.

I loved that short area, Johnny. Look, I will, I'll start this one just with my defense of Mike McDaniel. There are years that are just plain, you know, they circle the drain early and they just don't work out. That's how I look at last season. Sometimes you can't even flush a turd. No. I've been there, brother. Gotta get that poop knife. Sometimes it builds a bridge. You know what I'm saying? Please tell me. Please tell me that's not a thing. It is not a thing for me, but it is a it is a real thing in the world. I know about it. No way. We just made it. If people out there have not read the legendary poop knife store. It's because it's real for some people. I'll tell you what. Poop knife underrated. Okay. Poop knife is underrated. How do I even? Anyways, where were you going? You were talking about Flushing a turd.

I thought Mike Big Daniels, the season last year was just an unmitigated failure for the Dolphins, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances on this roster. And they began with Tuatunga Vaila, the injury and the uncertainty around his return. He's crucial to the offense. Tyreek Hill, the injury, his lack of performing. The last two years, number five and number two in points per game, we already saw him follow up a... a debut head coaching season with a better season. He was one of, you know, they were one of five teams to average four plus four point six plus yards per play over the last three years. I think the resume speaks for itself. I think last year you look at what happened and it was just a mess. I mean, I know that there's a lot of negativity around them and for good reason. They don't beat good teams very often. But from a fantasy perspective, I am happier to know Mike McDaniel as the head coach and offensive play caller for that team than I would be.

somebody else. So he's still on that side for me. He's definitely, I'm going to go underrated. He's definitely on the side of I would prefer to have him versus like a defensive minded head coach for my fantasy players. However, you know, the can't be good teams narrative. It's, it's been sticky. I mean, we're talking about just teams over 500 in the last three years. His record is three and 14 against them. That's bad. And oftentimes in those games, those aren't close games. They, they, They don't look like, they look like a team that when they play bad teams, they just, they've got a gimmick. They've got a schick. And the other bad teams can't figure it out. But if you're a good team, you're like, oh, just no problem. And so I feel like he got a little bit overrated with, you know, look, when you've got speed like Devon A. Chan and Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle, you can come onto the scene and really surprise. The scene's two years?

Two years of the scene? All I know is last year. They figured him out after 34 games. I mean, he was number one and points per game two years ago. Number two, but yes. And then number 18 this last year. Obviously you lose a little bit of Tua. A lot of bit. Well, yeah, you missed several games. And then when you got to a back, it just wasn't the same. And so I don't know. And you blame Mike McDaniel for that. I don't blame Mike McDaniel solely and only for that at all. But I do think he has seen as this.

um real mastermind and i'm not sure he's a mastermind i think he's clever i think the shine's wearing off yeah so i rapidly i'm saying publicly i think people are more and more out on him but for me it's like some of the metrics and watching tyreek last year it is weird i was infuriated watching the dolphins it is weird that if you're if if your superpower is offense and calling plays How are you not getting these guys the ball more? Well, I mean... And you go with Janu. Yeah, I mean, a lot of the metrics, if you look at Tyreek, he was just as effective when you did give him the opportunity. That's what I mean. You know what the record was last year? I mean, that was a bad year where they lost their quarterback and had lots of issues. They still went eight and nine. They still went eight and nine. I think we look at last year, and we've got this narrative of the three and 14 against winning teams, and it's fair. Do you think he's the head coach in 2026? Yes.

Yeah, I think they're going to be okay. So split opinions there. How about Caleb Williams? Just Caleb Williams, underrated, overrated. I thought this would be an interesting name to bring up because he's polarizing. So underrated, overrated Caleb Williams. You're shaking your head over there. I'm going to make you make a choice. All right. Three, two, one. Once again, I'm overrated. Me and Jay are locked in, baby. You are so smart. You said you were going to get the right answers. And we have. You know what I mean? My opinions right here. Okay. I'm all alone on the underrated. And this is for right now, it could change. Just watching him play last year. I know the offensive line was a rivically bad. But he just more often than not looked like.

He was completely outmatched at every level. And I know we had a few fantasy games where they're getting just absolutely demolished in the first half, and they have to mount a comeback, and he's able to put up some points. And they still lose, but his fantasy day is sort of salvaged. Yeah, yeah, five finishes in the top six at the quarterback position. I'm going to be honest. I'm shocked that Jason voted the way he did. I don't know if you, I don't know if he just wanted to be with you again on the on the vote. I didn't know what he was voting. I'm completely shocked because I feel like I don't feel like you believe in what you put up. Okay, so. Or you want to believe what you put up. I certainly don't want to believe what I put up. I hope Caleb Williams is excellent. The fact that you get three new offensive linemen at that center and good ones. Like they, they totally upgraded that offensive line. Amazing. They have three dudes playing center?

Yeah. Wow. One really wide jersey. Guard center guard. That's a good plan. Ben Johnson coming over like I'm really hopeful that Caleb Williams is a super star. And I went into this season, especially after those transactions, believing that, thinking that when I went through the first pass of the UDK. You know, I'm pretty bullish on the opportunities. I still want to draft DJ Moore. I still want to draft Roma Dunezay because the avenue for them to have great successes is clear and obvious. The truth is I went back and I watched him after all of that. And it was just simply clean pockets passing to guys not giving them catchable balls. That was my issue. I'm like, wait, this is, that can't be, you can't be an inaccurate.

quarterback and thrive and succeed. He was 44th and 47 qualifying quarterbacks and catchable target rate. You saw that. He had 31% pressure to sack rate where he's, he is part of the reason he's taking the sacks. I know that the offensive line was bad, but that was, you know, only Will Levis was worse than that. And so I just watched the film and I was like, man, I don't know why he's not able, he kept throwing it behind people so much. And you can correct that. Josh Allen was. you know, is the poster child for inaccurate, not consistent into super duper star MVP caliber MVP. He's the most MVP. MVP caliber MVP. Well, I was saying MVP caliber player, but he won the MVP this year, right? Yeah, he did. Josh Allen, to be fair, I mean, he was a 52% passer as a rookie. Caleb Williams was a 62 and a half percent passer as a rookie. And I think, I think.

I'm going to choose to believe a lot of that had to do with pressing, offensive line situations. So if you talk about uncasurable balls. Bad play caller, bad play designs as well. Yeah, and so, you know, you need to be more accurate. I agree. You need to make, give your receivers a better opportunity to make plays for you. I agree with that. He missed guys all the time. It's not a, it's not a defense of a rookie season. That's not what I think an underrated viewpoint is hinging upon. It's a projection towards the future and seeing enough elite performances where this was not a rookie that came out here and laid an egg in every moment of every game. It was trying to do too much, taking too many sacks, playing for a really bad offensive line, getting a little gun shy, missing guys when he needed to hit him, but still showing me enough elite performances for fantasy. That I think that that's in the range. His range of outcomes is very...

Like there's a positive Caleb Williams story to be told. And I think I think we could get it with the level of weapons they had. They invest in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. You've still got, you know, a Dunez A in year two and DJ more. So I'm excited about it. I would have, I would be a little bit more excited if they had brought in somebody who had more confidence in it running back than DeAndre Swift. But I'm going to still vote on that side. I am very, like I'm a very proud Papa of the fantasy community here of we didn't.

We haven't yet overreacted, I believe, to the addition of Ben Johnson being the head coach of the Chicago Bears. Where we are this year compared to last year, it seems like a much healthier spot. For all Bears. Yeah, for all. I'm talking about 80Ps where he's the QB 14 right now compared to the QB12. And if you remember last year, all three, you know, Kenan, DJ Moore and Rome were all like top five, top six round picks. And it was. And I talked about Rome on one of our bus shows. I think it wasn't. I'm like, it can't, it's impossible for it to work for all three of these guys. So I'm going to pick Rome to be the one that I think is the lowest odds. But it was just a, we were so, and I'm saying we, the fantasy community, so hyped for Caleb and the past catchers there that it got out of control. And it's been more managed this year. And yeah, because we know. To the point where it is, it, it's okay. I don't love. I'm not on.

I'm still not on Team Rome having the year two breakout. But in round seven, okay, I'll take that chance. Now that Caleb's played a year, we know how it'd go wrong. Yeah. And we didn't. Poor quarterback play. I'm just saying that's how it could go. It was a part of the issue. Look, I hemmed and hawed before this. This wasn't an easy one for me. And I'm not, I don't think it's a slam dunk. It's just if I have to pick one. Which you did. I'm on the underrated, the overrated side. we're going to take one more break and then we're going to come back i've got a handful more of these that we're going to get through it's been fun all right i think this one is uh i might still be deciding on it we're going to go overrated or underrated or overrated with completion percentage underrated or overrated with completion percentage i think this one's really tough because i could see a justification for both answers but um all right

I think I have my answer. All right. Three, two, one. Of course. Underrated, baby. Oh, my goodness. Mike and I are together almost every time. I've got all the right answers. You wrote them down and I'm copying. So I went overrated. I'm shocked at your answer on this one. Jason went underrated. Mike went underrated. I would not have answered this way three years ago. I am, I'm going to answer overrated on this one because I do believe that much like yards per carry. There is an aspect of nuance here that has entered the playing field. There was a time in which I feel like the direct correlation of completion percentage and fantasy excellence. I mean, it was right in your face. And the Drew Brees era, right? And he was elite. You know, he was special. He broke all the records in that department. But you do have offensive systems now where players can go out and they can dink and dunk and short area targets. And there's no.

deep at you know depth of target throws so i do feel like it can get a little bit overrated and telling you the story of what a player can do so gino smith might be an example of somebody that uh really high completion percentage somebody i don't believe in as much as a fantasy option or as an NFL star derrick car very high completion percentage same category we could all watch with our eyeballs and say well the completion percentage is not translating to greatness to a Tua? Yeah, Tua is a good example. I mean, he was number one in 72.9%. Jared Gough even, who we talked about on the Jameson Williams Sleeper Show, like, Jared Gough wasn't throwing the ball deep very much. And he's a really good quarterback. I'm not saying it doesn't matter. I'm saying it's overrated if that's your standalone metric. So what's funny is the reason I'm underrated and I think it's a good metric is not for the good completion percentage.

Everything you just said, I agree with. That's for the bad. It's for the bad. And that's why I'm shocked you didn't go underrated because over the last couple of years. About dogging Anthony Richardson? Exactly right. Over the last couple years, when we hold on to, you know, I know Josh Allen is that poster child of the completion percentage changing, but he's not just a poster child. He's it. He's the only one. Like when you bet against guys with bad completion percentages. You win. You win other than Josh Allen. It is an indicator of the worst quarterbacks in the league. And, you know, especially in today's day and age. So I don't look at the top end, you know, and say this guy's great because he's completing 70% of his passes. What are the passes? You know, it's just dink and dunk so many screens in today's NFL. But if you can't in today's NFL, have a high completion percentage.

You might be an inaccurate, inconsistent quarterback, and that don't work in the NFL. So that's, I am more. underrated on the bad completion percentage. I think you do reach a Mendoza line of sorts. There's a point you get to where that's a baseball reference. You wouldn't understand it. I did not understand it. You are correct. There's a point where, yeah, you go below a certain mark. I completely agree. You know, Alex Smith was always the poster child of like super high completion percentages. He had a 70% completion percentage season where he averaged like seven fancy points a game. So, um,

Yeah, it doesn't tell the whole story, but I agree. I think there's a point you get, you get below a certain point and you are not, it's not possible to be a successful NFL quarterback. And you just, you need to keep drives alive. You need to find your second, maybe your third read. And just making good, it's part of like, you're making good decisions. You know, sometimes you're going to take your chance and you missed on that one. Okay. So I just, I think overall, if I'm, it. We've all said it. I'm betting on if you can have a good completion percentage, I'm going to bet on you being at least a competent quarterback who I'm okay having fantasy weapons for you. Didn't we? I'm remembering this with Aaron Rogers. He had some completion percentage metrics that people began to believe he was working to preserve on a career perspective with decision making. And if that does become too prolific in a quarterback's mind, it can impact.

taking your shots down the field. We've had these quarterbacks in fantasy history where it's like, oh, like Derek Carr, like please just throw it. Throw it. Throw it down the, oh, you took another check down. All right, overrated, underrated, Isaiah likely tight end of the Baltimore Ravens. Overrated, underrated, Isaiah likely 25 years old. We've lived with Mark Andrews there. Jason's face is that of a terrified man. All right. All right. We'll see what he weighs in here. He's really, he's struggling here. Overrated, underrated Isaiah likely. I think he's a fun topic for 2025. Three, two, one. What will you two pick together? Overrated. Andy, we're together. Oh my gosh. This is what it feels like to be part of the majority. Part of the correct. Oh, okay. Mike went with overrated. I went underrated. Jason went underrated. Mike, go ahead.

When we, the story of Isaiah likely is essentially week one last year. And where he had, he exploded. You know, in game one of the season, everybody is watching it, gets 12 targets, goes nine for 111 and a score. And was that, like a one big toe away from tying it? And we all, and Mark Andrews had essentially nothing. And it was, oh, it happened. Isaiah likely is the guy. Mark Andrews is completely dust. And then, look, over the last three years, you know, fewer receptions than Austin Hooper. He has the same receiving touchdowns as Joanne Johnson. And it's, he's a, I think he's a fine NFL player. But for, and I'm okay with people having the take of, I think Mark Andrews is on truly on the downside and he's not going to be really fantasy relevant. To me, that doesn't make Isaiah likely just, this isn't just copy paste over. Isaiah likely turns into.

the Mark Andrews stats. You know, I went back and watched week one because I was, I was watching for Rashad Bateman of after he got that extension. And it was like, man, there were so many plays where Isaiah likely was not, he was not a part of that plan. It was Lamar Jackson scrambled forever and then happened to find Isaiah likely. And to his credit, made some stuff happen with the targets. But so for me, it's just a. I don't think he's taking over for Mark Andrews. I think it's far more likely that Mark Andrews bounces back this year than Isaiah likely takes the step and becomes the tight end we want for the Baltimore Ravens. I think we're still one year away because, you know, you talk about Austin Hooper's reception, Juan Johnson. I don't care about cumulative stuff right now. Those guys weren't playing behind Mark Andrews on the team. Like Isaiah likely is not going to go out there and dominate stats-wise.

while Mark Andrews is playing the majority of the snaps, yeah, as the primary pass catching tight end over the last several years. Mark Andrews is on the roster this year. So from a redraft perspective, I think without Mark Andrews being injured, yeah, Andrews probably isn't going to step up. We have seen him step up, though, like nine career games without Andrews, 11 half PPR points per game that is outstanding for a tight end. I think we know he can do it. And from a dynasty perspective, I believe Mark Andrews is one and done with the Ravens this year, and that the 25-year-old Isaiah likely is the future, they'll resign him. Yeah, he's going to, they're going to need to pay him. Yeah, yeah, he's in his last contract, right? Yeah, last year of his contract. And so I think this is more of a future play, which works at the tight end position. Usually if you got a guy going into year four and you're like, ah, he hasn't really done anything, the one position I would want it to be would be tight end. It's slow to start.

and then you put someone behind the team has always since since rookie years talked about him how special he's looked how good he is and it's like well then why hasn't he broken out well he's been playing behind you know i don't know if mark andrew's a hall of fame he's also had breakout games which is enough if you're the backup tight end to me i would not expect him to have done anything more than what he's done until he is the guy until he can get more than 58 targets in a season the question will be will he be allowed to become the guy

And that'll really be the answer to this question, because if he never gets the chance to be the guy from this team or another team to be the primary pass catching, then he's overrated right now. Because some of us are waiting for that to happen. Yeah, I would, I'd love Isaiah likely as a late week one flyer to see what things look like on this offense. Maybe the snap shares and target counts go. likely first, Andrew's second this year? Not that he can beat last year's week one and still, you could still be wrong, but that was 20% of his targets. I mean, Jim Harbaugh came out and talked about their expectations is all pro performances from Isaiah likely this year. He's definitely the future. There's a reason they talked about trading Mark Andrews all throughout draft season. His time is coming to an end. And so I'd like to be on the front end of a very athletic tight end that has shown high end performances. So that's why I lean on the underrated side.

I don't think we've got to see it all. We just, when he's full time, Jason mentioned it. The numbers are great when he's full time. All right, we got time for probably one more. Let's go contested catches. Overrated, underrated, contested catches. What do you think? This one's interesting. Do you already have your answers? I have my answer. Jason's over here. Sorting his thumbs again. Sorting his thumbs up, thumbs down. Contested catches. Oh, gosh. All right. I got it. You guys got yours? Yeah. Oh, no. Three, two, one. Oh, my goodness. Triple overrated. We started unanimous. We end unanimous. Oh, wait with overrated. So tell me, tell me why you answer. Because this one was hard for me. You know, I started with the.

perspective of like all the best receivers I've ever known are incredible at that skill but there's also been players that are completely irrelevant as wide receivers that have been pretty good at that skill so I I wonder The reason I think it's overrated is a very not sticky stat. You look at some players who, you know, one year, Joanne Jennings has two contested catches on 33% catch rate on those. The next year he has 18 and catches 75%. T. Higgins one year has four contested catches on only 30%. Oh, he's bad at it. And then the next year, he's great at it. He's got 16 on 61%. Where I like and care about contested catches is I...

I don't love contested catch college superstars because it scares me. That's why I'm overrated. Because contested catch college DBs are not. You should not be so contested in college. You should be separating. If you are the elite 1% of college football players at the wider zero position and you're going to make it in the league, you shouldn't be having contested catches all the time. Yeah, being good at contested catches is a great skill to have. Having a ton of data on that. But, you know, that data point is like a yellow, maybe red flag. When I'm doing my prospect scouting of college players, and I'm looking at how, like, what percentage of your targets are contested? Like, that's a negative to me. Well, it's funny because I think about Mike Williams in college and being a big bodied receiver that could go up and get it. Drake London, the last two years, has led the league in back-to-back years at this skill. So it's obviously a special talent for him. There are.