RB Rankings Part Two + Bag O' Money, Time After Time - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

He is going to be the primary guy of the running back committee. That's a bag of money. Absolutely. Well, gold, what Bitcoin? I don't know what's in the bag. But it's worth. Stuff it full of a lot of Bitcoin, actually. You can fit more Bitcoin per bag than just about anything. Look, there's a lot of cold storage inside of that bag. Yes. I get it. Justin Jackson, he's an interesting player. Joshua Kelly is.

Joshua Kelly's more of the prototype that you're talking about. When you say a running back, I need a big beefy man. 220 pounds. Yeah, that's what Joshua Kelly is. He was a fourth round pick, and we know that the success rate of players in the fourth or later, it's just much lower. And I know it's funny to say that as I'm praising Austin Echler, undrafted free agent, but he's already the outlier. We've already proven who he is as a player.

You saw him over those first four games, really getting attempts that he didn't see once Melvin Gordon came back. And perhaps that was not what they wanted to do. That's why they drafted Joshua Kelly. But I believe there will be enough targets and enough work that Austin Echler does return as a running back one. I don't have him projected to be what he was last year, which was, what, the running back six and half point PPR? So if he's my running back one, that's because I drafted

Michael Thomas or Devante Adams, a top tier wide receiver. He's going to be a camp mover for me. Camp's going to tell me a lot about the volume he's going to get as a runner. So when we speak default here, we are half PPR. That's the leagues that we play in. We prefer, Andy, and a full PPR, would you be confident with Echler as your RB1? I think so. I think I would. Full PPR, you're on the clock. You could take Chubb.

Or Echler. Chubb. You still take Chub. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. But I think I'd be, if I ended up in that situation where Echler needs to be my one in a full PPR, I'd be all right. Be all right. He's going to have, you know, maybe he doesn't have 92 reception. But he's going to have 80 and probably more carries than he had over the back half of last year with Melvin Gordon involved. Agreed. David Johnson comes in at number 15, 16, 16, 17 on our rankings, 15 by consensus. And it's a whole new world for David Johnson in Houston.

And I think it's going to be okay. I think it's going to be okay. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. You hate that. You think that? Yes, because he's the running back 25 in, in. We're way ahead of his ADP. And that's why I hate it. Because he's there. He's there for me every single draft where I've taken him very few times. I look at my rankings.

And what I believe is going to happen, and he is always there for the taking. I don't like it. And I hate it because I don't want to bank on David Johnson again. He looked slow and busted. But at the same time, Carlos Hyde was a thousand-yard runner. He is a good pass catcher. He's going to be needed. Carlos Hyde busted years ago. I know. And Carlos Hyde was fine last year for the Houston Texans. So when I look at my projections, David Johnson is a real value.

in this draft. And I don't want to take the value. What does that say? There's like a $5 bill on the ground. You're like, I don't know. It's way down there. I don't know if I want to pick that. It looks really dirty. What's on that dollar? Well, the problem, the only problem that kind of sticks out for me is the fact that Duke Johnson is such a good pass catching running back. So I don't know exactly what the third down breakdown is going to look like. It could be one of those situations in Houston where Duke Johnson is better at literally everything than David Johnson. And it doesn't matter.

David Johnson gets two times as much work as Duke Johnson does. Duke is a better yard per carry runner. He's a better yard per reception receiver. That's the Duke Johnson career. That is the experience of Duke Johnson. Yes. Like this.

This dude just can't give him an opportunity. But Houston's storyline as we move on in this ranking show, the storyline for Houston is vacated targets. Do they go to Brandon Cooks? Do they go to Will Fuller? Do they go to David Johnson? It's probably some combination of all of those things. And David Johnson is simply going to be on the football field more than a lot of running backs out there. Hopefully that equates is something. Last year he couldn't run. He hasn't run in Arizona just for the record. He has not run in Arizona well for two.

two plus seasons. He caught passes, big time receptions. And Deshaun Watson has the ability to, you know, just extend the play. And if David Johnson is sitting in the middle of the field, he's going to find him. He's going to have opportunity. To me, that's where everything comes down to for David Johnson. If I don't really care about his market share when it comes to rushing attempts, like he could get 250 attempts. I don't think it's...

going to be great. I know you're comfortable. Well, Carlos Hyde did it. I think at this point, Carlos Hyde is a better rusher than what we, than David Johnson. To say that David Johnson can hit that, like Andy said, we haven't seen it in multiple, multiple years here now for David Johnson. It comes down to the past catching. Do we see 50 plus receptions from David Johnson? If that's the case, then he'll return value. He'll be a,

you know, a running back 15 to running back 20. I have to wonder how comfortable he was in Kingsbury offense ever. That too. Even when he got, it's one of those things that stacks on itself. It's like, I never get a chance. So when I get a chance, I got to do everything, which makes me try to do everything. He, you know, stringing every play to the outside. And I was just on a pod talking about that, the fit where he always looked uncomfortable. And, you know, it was perhaps maybe he's all busted, but let's give David Johnson a little bit of end fit here and say maybe it was the system.

If an NFL running back has to take any time at all to think what should I be doing instead of just muscle memory reacting, your body knows exactly what to do in this scheme, you're toast. You're going to look hesitant. You're up against the 0.1% athletes in the world. You're, you will not have success if you have to think at all. Man, I hope this is the case because I really have.

I say I don't like it, but I look back at my drafts that I've done, especially the real ones. I have shares of David Johnson. I am drafting him at a value. And you say he hasn't been good on the ground in a couple years. That's true. But if it was the Cliff Kingsbury system that didn't match up, think about the year prior. I mean, that was the Josh Rosen, no offensive line, worst offense in the history of the NFL. Yeah.

Nobody, you know, I don't think you put anyone there and they come out on top. Yeah. More stories of why David Johnson is going to be what he was five years ago. I don't know if I could do it. But he's, we rank him a lot higher than his ADP, which is what we do with the number 16 running back on our list. Levy on Bell. And I have faced this decision. Levy on Bell, David Johnson, in many a draft. And I'm, I'm like at the.

Flip the coin. I actually end up taking Lev Bell more often than not. It's Levian Bell for me. Because of the ceiling, and my rankings have them back to back, and I probably need to flip-flop because Lev Bell is with the Leonard Four Nett category of great opportunity to score touchdowns. Didn't work out. 245 carries turned into three rushing touchdowns. And there's a lot of positive praise for Lev Bell around New York in terms of, you know, his work.

what they're expecting out of him, the way he looks. And you got nothing special all last year. But you did get, you know, 10 games where he was a top 24 back. So you're not going to get burned by him. You just hope that you get a handful of games where he's scoring a couple of times. He's got the high receiving totals. I mean, I think when I compare these two players, the...

The higher baseline is Levion Bell because of the known receiving work. You know that he's going to have the ball pass to him a lot. He had 78 targets, 66 receptions last year. We have no idea. You know, Deshaun Watson hasn't really been a guy that's targeted the running back heavily, but then he hasn't had a pass catching back.

Like David Johnson? Like David Johnson, who goes a little bit more downfield and can catch some deeper routes. You know, but it's, I think that you're limited here by Adam Gase, Sam Darnold, the Jets' offense as a total. So I look at Lev Bell as a guy who is a low floor, low ceiling. I don't see.

a great year for Lev Bell in the cards. I know his touchdowns, you say it should be higher from the touches he had. I think he gets fewer touches this season. Well, you have him ranked exactly where he finished. Yeah, that's basically where I... Which is still five spots ahead of ADP. His range of outcomes... Which is 17, by the way. Last year it was RB17 on a disgusting year. Yeah, the range of outcomes to me is very limited.

I feel like he's going to be a safe, meh. Like 16 to 17. Yeah, that's the floor ceiling. No, I mean, it's hard not to look at the team and the surroundings when you see Lev's situation. If the offensive line makes a significant move forward, that's the big question. That's where ceiling can be achieved for a Levi-on Bell. They tried. I think he can be an RB1. Mike, do you? Do I think he can be an RB1? Yes. Yes, 100%. Okay. So we see a little bit higher ceiling than Jason sees. And it's been gross in New York, so I don't.

I mean, I don't blame anybody for passing on that experience for 16 games in 2020. Chris Carson, 17 on our list, Melvin Gordon at 18. Melvin Gordon's actually going both of these guys, 16 and 17 by ADP. So we're a little bit lower, I think, on Melvin Gordon, at least Mike is. Yep.

So Carson, Gordon, what are the headlines here you would want to get into? I mean, Carson last year from weeks 1 through 10 was the RB7. Everything got off to a great my guy type of start, except for the fumbles. Well, I would say the vast majority of the season was excellent for Chris Carson. The headline to me that is Chris Carson is we are still waiting for that full confirmation that he's going to go. He's going to be the guy week one. Once that confirmation comes in, he's too low.

for our rankings. Jay, you have them the lowest right now at 21. Tomorrow, Pete Carroll, Peach Cobbler comes out and says, he's smacking on his gum, but says, Chris Carson, he is good to go. He's starting week one. How high do you think he jumps in your rankings? Or does he just stay there at 21? No, I mean, full, full bill of health. He's ready to go. He's a full go, which we could find that out today. I mean, you know, more field work is going to happen at camp starting

you know, this week. So when I know he's got a full healthy slate, I'm going to move him up because you look at all these players. We're talking about the question marks, right? Is Love Bell going to be better than he was last year? I don't know. How's David Johnson is going to catch the ball? Melvin Gordon's got a new team. Chris Carson, the only question is the health. So if he's healthy coming in, he was already successful. He was already the lead back on this team. It's a great offense. There's continuity everywhere.

I would rather take my shot on Chris Carson from this range. But one thing I did want to point out, we're talking about, I mean, listen to these running backs. We haven't got to Todd Gurley and, you know, James Connor yet. These just giant question marks in these rounds three, four, five, and the wide receivers are so good there. This is why, like, when I, when I go through this, I don't want this decision.

I don't want to be like, well, who do you have to take Melvin Gordon or Lev Bell? I don't want. So does that mean you're passing on wide receivers early so that you don't have to make this decision? Because you like the wide receivers here so much. You don't want to make the Lev Bell, David Johnson, Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon decision at all. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I feel like we're always about stay water. Let the draft come to you. And that's...

that's the right way to play it. You know, don't go in and say, I'm running back, running back. But for some reason this year, and I think this is the reason, the question marks in this category of running back and the wide receivers that I just love that are being pushed down because of how early running backs are going, I just feel like I can't imagine not going running back, running back right now in a draft due to these players. Carson and Nick Chubb were not very different stat line-wise last year. I mean, obviously Chubb had a...

A couple hundred more rushing yards, but opportunity-wise, receptions, those type of numbers, very similar. And then Melvin Gordon, nobody knows what's going to happen here in Denver. Is Drew Locke legit? Is Melvin Gordon going to get the majority of the workload? I think so. To me, for Melvin Gordon, the theme of the day now is just questions, and they are just the wheel barrel full.