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Main show · August 10, 2020

RB Rankings Part Two + Bag O' Money, Time After Time - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

RSSAug 10, 2020 · transcript indexed
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RB Rankings Part Two + Bag O' Money, Time After Time - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

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Inside the episode

149 passages
14:08 ↗

usurp the backfield. That is not the situation you have here with Antonio Gibson. You have players that are more experienced, both in third down roll and first and second down role, that are going to, it's going to take Gibson a little bit of time. Sure. Jucco, okay, he plays some Juko. He played, he has 33 carries in college. That's not. At Memphis. Correct. Yes, at a, at a FBS school. Here's the thing. I'm not saying that as a demerit, and this is to quote Robert Wilson.

14:39 ↗

His 33 carries is a question mark about his experience, not a demerit to his talent. He does not, and this is the bigger point, he doesn't have to be the guy to be the highest scoring fantasy output at the position for Washington. This is the last place scoring team last year. Ron Rivera, when he came into Carolina, it took him a couple years to get things going record-wise. It could take a little bit of time and it's a deeper room.

15:04 ↗

He's working. Antonio Gibson is working with the wide receivers as much as he's working with the running back room. He's also going to return kicks. He's going to be the Swiss Army knife. And there's nobody behind Terry McLaurin. When I look at opportunity for Antonio Gibson, it's not this path to, you know, if he gets 100 carries this year, I'll be shocked. I will be shocked. He doesn't need it, though. I have him at RB 41. I think he will finish higher than that. I won't be able to predict when that will happen because he's going to have the...

15:31 ↗

Percy Harvin-esque type. I mean, Percy Harvin, you go back and look, he had seasons with 50-plus rushing attempts to go with all the receiving yards. There will be opportunity for Gibson, but this is to pull it back to the final conclusion here. Watch camp. Pay attention to camp. If Bryce Love is making headlines in camp, it changes and muddies the water more. If he's not and he's more reserved.

15:55 ↗

You know, when will Gibson learn blitz pickups? When will Gibson get opportunities on third down? It's going to be fun to watch him on the field. And I'll say this is from T.J. Hernandez, he talked about the play calling of Ron Rivera. So Ron Rivera, in neutral game scripts from 2011 to 2019, he was the 10th highest passing rate. And so, and his, TJ's point was simply,

16:22 ↗

They, like, Ron Rivera likes to pass when the game is close. So they have J.D. McKissie? Well, I'm just saying like, you have, they want to pass when the game is close. And then when, uh, when Scott Turner took over, they jumped into a neutral play script percentage of passing. That's a mouthful there. But that would have been third in the league. Like they, they're not Callahan anymore. This is going to be a pass happy offense when the game is close. And then if they're losing.

16:51 ↗

Guess what they're doing? They're going to pass. Like Gibson, he's in, people are excited that Cream Hunt is taking meetings with the wide receiver team. Antonio Gibson is also taking meetings in the wide receiver room as well as the running back room, which, look, that could be bad for a rookie for his development if he has to fully learn two positions. But if you're drafting anyone from this team, nobody to me, no one has a ceiling.

17:19 ↗

except for Antonio Gibson. I'll probably end up with Adrian Peterson on more teams than Antonio Gibson. The real question I had for you, and that's just because of the draft price. You're not going to pay anything for him if you need like a start for a couple weeks. I will pay you the waiver wire for Adrian Peterson. Yeah, that's fine. Is there any chance you have Antonio Gibson on any team here forward? Honestly. Is he worth the price that he's going to cost? I have no idea where this ADP rocket ship is going to land.

17:45 ↗

I would still be willing to take him in the 8-9 range because of what I perceive as his upside compared to these other flyers. At that point of the draft, you're swinging at every pitch that's thrown at you. We'll be watching. We'll be watching Washington's camp and seeing how this thing breaks down and how many snaps he's getting with the running back core. And we'll stay water and keep.

18:10 ↗

modifying those adjustments. Look, it's talent and opportunity. He's got all the talent in the world. What opportunity will he have will determine his draft position? All right. Other bits of real quick, I guess this is more like what Mike Wright hype news. No preseason games, no joint practices. Lewis Riddick said Clyde Edwards Allaire looking real good. Progressing well, given what they have given him.

18:36 ↗

Mahomes said he's wanting to learn more, gets in every single rep that they let him, getting better every single day. Yada, yada, yada, what we think about Clyde Edwards-Alaher is going to come true. Yeah, it's going to be good. It's happening. It's going to be a good season for Clyde Edwards-Layer and the chiefs and Pat Mahomes and that offense. And you want a piece of it. You want two pieces. You want three. If I could start the draft with three chiefs, I would do it.

19:01 ↗

Yeah, and Ron Rivera also said Alex Smith, if he's activated, we'll be in the throws of the competition for the team starting quarterback spot. You brought the statistics up about their passing frequency in close games. It makes a huge difference to me. That number will continue if Alex Smith is the quarterback. But if Dwayne Hastings is turning the ball over in those circumstances, they're going to have to protect him. And so that could make a big difference as well.

19:24 ↗

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19:54 ↗

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20:17 ↗

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20:43 ↗

Fantasy Football Trophy or a belt, one of those big, bad championship belts. Oh, they're big and bad. They're very heavy. When using the promo code, baller draft, use that code. You get a free draft kit. They've got tons of great, you know, swag for your fantasy league. So you can go over to Fantasychamps.com, use the code baller draft. It's running back time. Running bags. Part two. That's 11 through 20.

21:18 ↗

Maybe. That's right. Kenyon Drake coming in as our consensus number 11 overall running back. If I had told Jason Moore that a year ago, if I had told him a year from now, we'll be talking about Kenyon Drake in your top 12. He'd say, I believe you. Yes, I would. I'd say, oh, did he finally get the opportunity? You'd have been thrilled. I would have said, does he finally get the opportunity to be a lead back? Because he'll be outstanding in that role.

21:47 ↗

Oh, it's for a really high-paced fast offense? Fantastic. Oh, he already dominated with this offense? Okay. Okay. I'm in. You say that like you were ever out. Yeah, I've never been out on. Ooh, I'm in. I've got him at 11, Jason at 8, Mike at 12. Jason has taken him in the majority of his mock drafts. And his average draft position is the RB9 right now. So actually, Mike and I are a little bit below ADP.

22:16 ↗

But he's a top 12 back. I mean, you saw it last year. Week 15, he was the number one overall fantasy running back. Week 16, he was number two. That was Cleveland and Seattle. He had a huge role in Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins comes in. A lot of people expecting Kyler to take the step forward. And they went out and they actively pursued Kenyon Drake. They recognized the fit, the way fantasy owners recognized it.

22:44 ↗

And they said he has to be our running back this year. David Johnson, we're going to get rid of you for nothing. Oh, I'm sorry. I mean, for DeAndre Hopkins. What are we going to do with this contract? I don't know. Can we turn it into DeHop? Sounds made up still. All right, but looking at Kenyon Drake, RB4 from week nine on, big league winner for fantasy owners last year. I mean, what can go wrong?

23:15 ↗

In Arizona for Kenyon Drake. Injury? I think that that could go wrong, not because he has some proneness, but we haven't seen him carry the workload for an entirety of the season. He was on pace as an Arizona Cardinal for 246 rushing attempts and 70 targets, which turned into 56 receptions. That's the 16-game pace as a Cardinal. So we've never seen him.

23:40 ↗

be a 250 carry 50 reception running back ever. So that, to me, is the worry. I'm not super worried about, and Andy, you might speak. We're all Cardinals fans here. We follow the team very closely. I may speak. I'm saying you may speak to. I will allow you to speak upon Kenyon Drake. To your belief that Chase Edmonds is more involved. But last year.

24:06 ↗

David Johnson was also here, obviously injured for a stretch. Chase Edmonds was here, but injured for a stretch. But those guys were there. And Drake was still, without a shred of doubt, the guy. So to me, what could go wrong is simply injury. Otherwise, he's going to be on pace for 300 total touches involved in the passing game. He was on pace for 1,286 yards.

24:33 ↗

Throw the touchdowns out because that's not a sticky stat. He was on pace for 16 touchdowns. Maybe that goes away. Maybe he's even a touchdown guy. Maybe Kyler's more successful in the red zone a little bit. It actually, and you can tell me whether it's a fair comparison or not, it was interesting because when I look at Lamar Miller, when he was with Miami, 177 carries, 216 carries, 194 carries, and he was super efficient. 5.1 a carry, 4.5 a carry, big plays. Went to the Texans.

25:01 ↗

jumped up to that 260 carry mark. Efficiency went down a little bit. Still got over 1,000 yards. Chase Edmund's involvement doesn't change really how I look at Kenyon Drake, obviously ranked inside the top 12. It's just a matter of how much work do they give him. And I think they give him enough to keep him in the top 12 each and every week. He's going to catch passes.

25:22 ↗

But I don't think he has top five potential. I do agree that the Lamar Miller comp is very good. It was one of those, oh, he always did it. He's also the same age. He was 25 when he changed teams. Same ages. And so, you know, what did he do that first year in Houston? He was the running back 18. Well, if you're drafting Kenyon Drake as the running back nine and he finishes his running back 18, you're not going to be happy with that. You would be disappointed. The only difference being that, you know, we hadn't seen Lamar Miller.

25:51 ↗

with Houston. We saw Drake in this offense with Arizona where he dominated. Is that 18, RB18, his floor somewhere around there? Yeah, I think that's the case. And I would say that the difference of, if you're looking at Lamar Miller changing to the Houston Texans, like you're going to, you're going in with O'Brien, like the Cliff Kingsbury system. Sure. Last year, David Johnson faced a stacked box of eight or more defenders on carries, 5.32% of the time. That was David Johnson.

26:21 ↗

They spread out the offense, very similar to the Rams where they've been able to get historically. You know, they were able to get Todd Gurley very easy light boxes to run against. That's just what the system is in Arizona. Well, what's crazy about that is the reason David Johnson's numbers were so good is because if you remember the beginning of the year when he wasn't injured, they were running 10 personnel a ton. They completely went away from it. That's what they want to do, but they didn't have the receiving core.

26:49 ↗

in order to do that. Krisha Kirk got injured and they just weren't that deep. Now with Hopkins, Fitzgerald, Kirk, Isabella, Butler, I think they get back to running more 10 personnel, which Drake didn't see that few of stacked boxes as David Johnson did. He's going to have an even easier time in 2020. All right. Number 12 on our list is Nick Chubb. I think Nick Chubb is an extremely interesting fantasy player this year.

27:18 ↗

season was incredible, 1,494 yards, eight touchdowns, 36 receptions. I think he's one of the best pure runners in all of football, yet you have, coming into the season, people don't know exactly where to put him for two reasons. One is, you know, the Kareem Hunt piece in general. Fantasy owners like Clear Paths. And with Kareem Hunt's talent and ability there, it just kind of,

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