Deep Sleepers: Late Round WRs | Just The Tips

Welcome to the fantasy footballers, just the tips. I'm your host today, Jason Moore. Now, there is nothing quite like calling your shot on a late round pick or finding a wide receiver off the waiver wire early in the year who ends up being an every week starter. In 2023, the signs were there with Puka Nakua. Not to waft in my own farts too much, but I drafted him in our league of record, and I did that because I wanted a shot at what he could be. Now, I didn't know puka would become puka, but the signs were there for a potential breakout. In this episode of Just the Tips, we want to give you a few markers to consider for late-round players and early waiver-wire potentials before the 2025 season starts. Now, this isn't...

an exact science, but we've undertaken the task of mining out wide receivers who could become startable weekly players for your team. Average draft position, it's certainly improved over the years, as we as a fantasy football community, ma'am, we've gotten better. We can sniff out potential breakouts often before the season starts. Consider the last few months of this summer. Guys like Emeka Egbuko or Ricky Pearson, who were double-digit round steals, now they're on everyone's must-draft lists. So we want to go beyond that. Finding diamonds in the rough is all about identifying the few inefficiencies that still remain before the NFL kickoff. Now, Mike highlighted ambiguous backfields on the first Just the Tips episode. So this one will lend itself towards finding the wide receivers late who can make noise for your rosters. Now, let's set some ground rules. Yeah, we all want to find this year's Pooka Nakua, but perhaps the better target is finding late round guys.

or draft leftovers who could potentially become a starting flex for your roster. Now, last year, there were a boatload of wide receivers going late who won leagues like Brian Thomas Jr., James, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy went at wide receiver 58, and even serviceable veterans like Adam Thielen, Garnell Mooney, Joanne Jennings, they were all part of the regular conversation each week at wide receiver. So we looked at every player drafted wide receiver 45 or later. in the last five years and then the largely undrafted guys like puka nukua or even the 2021 hunter renfro now this gave us a monster sample size over 400 different players from puka to brian pringle or k j hamler here's the big stat to start from over the last five years we've seen seven wide receivers on average each year who score more than 10 fantasy points per game that were drafted at wide receiver 45 or later

Now, we use that 10 point threshold per game because historically, that is the expectation for a wide receiver starting in as your wide receiver 3 or better in a half PPR league over the last decade. 10 points per game, it might not seem like a lot, but consider that in 2024, that range of production includes early round picks like Zay Flowers, a D.K. Metcalfe and even Tyreek Hill, who was disappointing, but still finished as wide receiver 2s or 3s. So let's find a couple threads with these diamond wide receivers over the last five years to see if we can mine some out for 2025. Number one, youth. 68% of the wide receivers were still in their rookie contract, with the majority of those being first and second year players. And number two, team pass rate. This makes sense intuitively. We want cheap wide receivers.

on teams who potentially could see a lot of volume. 65% of these wide receivers came from passing attacks that were ranked in the top half of pass attempts per game. If you could envision an offense throwing a ball 33 times a game or more, well, now you're in business. So who are some of the late round diamonds for 2025 going past wide receiver 45 to pay attention to? Keon Coleman, wide receiver 50. Okay, so the bills don't pass a ton, I get it. But could Coleman carve out a bigger piece of the passing pie in 2025? He started getting it going. He started getting in a groove. And then he suffered a wrist injury in week nine and missed the next five weeks. He has been the rave of camp. Andy is very bullish on him. And I think that there is a world where he becomes an alpha. Jaden Higgins, the wide receiver 51. Ignore the current depth.

chart chatter and remember this player was drafted to be great they took him 34th overall and they gave him a fully guaranteed contract to be a starting outside wide receiver and remember opposite neco collins we have seen meaningful fantasy production from tank dell and stephan diggs before they were injured it might be a slow burn but higgins feels like a young wide receiver that we will be drafting a lot of and next year in 2026 he'll be going much higher Kyle Williams, the wide receiver 63. Mike brought him up recently as a sleeper in the third round. He was a third round NFL draft pick, and he's so different than any other wide receivers they have on this depth chart. He's explosive off the line of scrimmage, and he's dynamic in and out of his cuts. After totaling the fewest combined fantasy points of any wide receiver room in the NFL last year, he could work his way into being a...

Big play threat for Drake May. Now, I'm bullish on the Patriots this year. Dante Thornton Jr. wide receiver 64. It has been a steady drumbeat for Dante Thornton, the fourth round rookie, who might be forgotten after the team signed Amari Cooper. If you want upside, why not look at this mammoth of a man? He's 6'5, 205, and ran a 4-340. Now, Gino led all quarterbacks in 20 plus air yard touchdowns over the last three years, and that seems like a Thornton specialty. Stash him on your bench and see if the Raiders' offense could possibly be better than we imagine. Here's my favorite. Cedric Tillman, the wide receiver right now in drafts. He is a starting outside wide receiver for a team that ranked number one in pass rate last year, and now they have Joe Flacco back ready to chuck it.

He had a stretch last year where you saw him soak up 24% of the team's targets, and it wouldn't be a shock to me if he became the early waiver wire name. He can't be for you because you're going to draft him in your last round and already be prepared. Becoming a waiver wire expert. Now, hopefully your roster is stockpiled after your drafts, thanks to the ultimate draft kit, and you're able to hit on a few late round wide receivers that could pop off. But you know how fantasy football works? And you've heard me share this adage way too many times over the years. You don't win your league at the draft. But you could put yourself in a position to win your league if you play the waivers right very early. If you play in a league with a free agent acquisition budget, a fab, and you should, here's a tip I've shared on a Tips and Tricks episode a few years back, but I'm doubling down. Take dumps now, not later.

And first of all, that's just sound life advice. It's applicable to everyone out there. But come for the fantasy football advice. Stay for health tips from trained medical experts like myself. You know, that's why you're here. Our research has shown that you should hit the waiver wire or spin your fab early in the season. There are exceptions to this rule and obviously outwire insurance running backs can pop up at any point during the season. But ignore the anecdotes. And the waiver fab complaints every one I've heard under the sun. I don't want to waste it early. Oh, I'm waiting for an injury to bring me a league winning back up running back. Oh, I want to save something for the playoffs. It's mine. Don't tell me what to do with my fake football money. There's a ton of them. But we looked back at the data over the last decade and we found that week one breakouts, they have a higher fantasy points per game.

average than the rest of the season than any other week. Not total points, a higher average points per game. This is likely an information issue. In week one, the fantasy community doesn't have as much intel about rosters, depth charts, and playing time as we all might think we do. The beginning of a fantasy season is also rife with group think. Therefore, it's easy. for the under the radar breakouts to emerge in week one because we simply know less after week one when the fantasy community has a more accurate understanding of the NFL landscape it's more difficult for players to break out from obscurity apart from those ambiguous backfields you want to pounce on early for the waiver wire young wide receivers who are involved early they tend to have staying power through the season here are the wide receiver situations i have an eye on for the first

few weeks. Denver. Between Marvin Mims, my dude, Troy Franklin, and third round pick, Pat Bryant, someone will probably emerge from this group to be a weekly flex play. Now, Mims recently had a groin injuries, so it's possible Franklin or Bryant secure and every down type of role. As Sean Payton's preferred outside starting guy, if Bo Nix takes another step forward, someone else could benefit. And betting on those young wide receivers is my preferred strategy. Carolina. Despite Teteroa McMillan's arrival, there is still room in this offense for another target to emerge, especially if Bryce Young continues to chuck the ball like he did down the stretch last year. Adam Thielen was legit good at the end of last year, yet it feels like an afterthought in drafts. Jalen Coker and Xavier Leggett, they are both second year players who have room to grow.

And tight end to Jotavian Sanders. He's one of the young players to pay attention to. Be willing to pounce on a panther early. Tennessee, we usually want to bet against rookie quarterbacks, as Mike touched on last week. But there is a chance. Cam Ward is one of those outlier rookies who plays beyond his years and creates and extends plays for his wide receivers. The rookies. Elic Eo Manor and Camira D.K. are both starred in platforms as guys I want, and I'm going to watch for in the first month. What is their playing time like? Do they overtake the old men, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Lockett? You know, that's not real competition. We want to know who's starting opposite Calvin Ridley. There is nothing quite...

like finding late round gyms in fantasy be aggressive early on the waiver wire and be willing to take shots late in your drafts for wide receivers left for dead in the double digit rounds thanks for watching if you want access to all the fantasy footballers draft information check out the ultimate draft kit let us help you dominate your draft and we'll see you next time