Ice & Fire Picks + Best Movie/Player Comps: LIVE in LA - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/1

But he's not going to go to a level of elite pass catching. And that takes his ceiling down significantly. But the other side, and to me, even bigger, because it says what the team is doing, what they believe in Antonio Gibson, who has fumbled away a couple of victories for them, they go out and they sign a third round running back, or draft a third round running back, which is high draft capital in today's NFL from Alabama, R.BU. And they're bringing him in to give him the ball. In fact, over the last decade, the third round running backs have averaged 127 rushing attempts in their rookie year. I have Robinson down for 125 rushing attempts. Now, you might say, well, look, that's not, he's not coming in and taking the job. No, no, he's not. But did you know, I did not know this until, like. I thought it was your job. That's a really good counter. Oh, I f-

Oh, I'm so upset right now. Uh, Brooks, can I get the boom shock lacquer drive? I just got dunked on. If you can find it. Yeah, he can find it. He already used it once. And... Boom... I feel like you're deflating my boom shock laika right now. This is all I got for you. Keel! All right. I like that one. But this is what I was going to say. Antonio Gibson last year had the fourth... most rushing attempts in the league. He was, he had 258 rushing attempts. That was more than Dalvin Cook, more than Zeke. They drafted a third round running back and they re-signed J.D. McKissick away from Buffalo who wanted to have him. So he's not the passing downs guy. He's not the 258 rushing attempt guy. Who is he? He's just a dude. He's Ansononeo. He's Ansonio Gibson this year. So look.

Is he going to be okay? Yeah, he's going to be okay. He's not a bum. He's a great athlete, but he's not going to win fantasy leagues for people. And he's being drafted as a middle of the pack RB2. And I'm not going on Antonio Gibson. It also throws red flags up as like, where in the world would you draft him in a dynasty startup? Oh, yeah. If you, if you see that project. Because he's, I've seen people drafting and he just, he lasts and he lasts and he lasts and he lasts because nobody can paint the picture for what the future looks like.

And it's, you know, it's not a good future. And what if he fumbles a couple of times like he has always done? That gets really, really scary. All right. Next player, ironically, we're going to put Hollywood Brown up on the board here. Okay. Now, they're saying, ooh, they're excited. I mean, this is a player that Jason has actually touted many, many times. Because he's great. And, well, maybe this drop will tell you what I think. Hollywood. Put it up there, Brooks. We got a fire for Hollywood Brown. Listen. Homer, Homer. Okay. All right. Explain it away. I will. I will blow your mind because I blew my own mind when I was looking up these numbers. Listen how good Hollywood Brown. Mind you, Hollywood asked out of Baltimore.

This is not conducive for me, right? Right. I want to do more. Here is what before the Lamar injury. So one through nine, weeks one through nine, that's a decent sample size last year. He's a wide receiver five in fantasy football. The wide receiver five with Lamar going to a new system without Hopkins this year. He had five wide receiver one weeks in that span. That's as many as Jamar Chase had the entire. season. He did it in nine games last year, goes to Arizona where they pass the ball a lot more. Players with more top 12 weeks than Hollywood on the year. You want me to read you the list? It's a long list. Hold on. Cooper Cup. Impressive. I'm done with the list. Whoa. It wasn't even a list. It was a name. Hollywood Brown was elite at the beginning and when it mattered.

Weeks 1 through 9 when people were competing for the playoffs. You just forget because the injury to Lamar, the way it ended, he had those drops. It was an ugly end of the season. This is a player that goes back with Kyler Murray. You can make fun of Kyla Murray. You can make fun of Arizona. We do it all the time. It's fun. It's our only way to live in Arizona is to make fun of it, to laugh instead of crying. But that connection from Oklahoma, that's a real thing. We saw that collegiate connection last year with Burrow and Jamar Chase.

This is a player Kyler wanted to bring into the fold. Who's the best deep ball thrower in all of football? Statistically, it's Kyler Murray. As much as you may hate him, he tied Tom. Someone says too low. Yeah, thank you. He had great numbers on those five throws, man. They were very accurate. He completed a pass in training camp, guys. It's crazy because Hollywood is going late fifth, early sixth round in redraft leagues. He's being ignored. You've got players like Amari Cooper going ahead of him, Jerry Judy going ahead of him, a hurt Chris Godwin, you're insane if you do that. Hollywood is going to put up huge numbers in Arizona this year, and he's similar enough height to Kyler that I think it can happen. Oh, yeah. Good friends. Good friends. See, that's a good case. Yeah, they actually go to the same daycare. Oh, man. Brutal. For their children, you know. I was going to go with, like.

They sit on the bench while everyone goes on the roller coasters. There's an endless amount. But we would, we're a highbrow show. We would never stoop. Never do that. As low as. Yeah, we'll just look right over that. Oh, no. You know, very easily. Just straight ahead, take the, what looks like a high road to them. All right, that's enough. All right. Mike, you are back up. And unlike Trey Lance, I think this player... Yes. Maybe a little bit more suspense. Yeah, I want to talk about another quarterback, Super Bowl participants. We want to talk about. Super Bowl participant. Well, I can't call him a winner because he didn't win. And if I say Super Bowl loser, it sounds bad. Now, hold on. I know, I know everyone listening at home, they may not perceive it as well. But before you reveal, Mike, I would like you to cheer if you think it's fire for Joe Burrow. Okay, okay.

That's a good cheer. And I would like you to now, I guess, hoot. No, I want to hear this. Let me hear hiss. Thank you. Hiss if you think it's ice. Ooh, that's a strong snake in the room. Many snakes. I thought it was about split. I got a snake, man. It's an old shout it. That goes way back. So here's the thing. Joe Burrow, incredible season, takes his team all the way to the Super Bowl. Being drafted as the quarterback five on sleeper, the quarterback seven on underdog. Very handsome. Very, yeah, I mean, his swagger is off the charts. But so is his ADP. It's a little bit too high for me. And I'm going to cast my Elsa spell upon him. Impressive. I'm letting it go in the draft, Joe Burrow. You're letting him go by? Yeah, look, and here's the problem. Who?

Joe Burr, what? Oh, Snow Burrow? Snowboro, yeah. Okay, fair enough, fair enough, thank you. I don't know if they're in on all the snow puns. I can only hope there's one more. So Joe Burrow, wait, look, I'm not arguing that he, like, he is great. But here is the problem for fantasy football. Last year, he was not just good. He was historically good. He led the league in completion percentage. He led the league in yards per attempt. He was third in the league in touchdown percentage at six and a half percent. Those numbers that he put up, a 70 percent completion rate with an 8.9, 8.9 yards per attempt. That has been done in 16 games two times in history. He did it and Deshaun Watson did it. Historically great quarterback, got it. Oh, and when you hear all those numbers, you're like, Joe Burroughs smashed.

What an incredible fantasy football season. Who was that saying that? I don't know. That was just Joe cool. Randy Savage. Oh, Joe Burrow smash, brother. But here is the unfortunate part. Until the playoff boomtacular, Joe Burrow, to that point, had never had a 30-point week. He was, in fact, the quarterback 12 in points per game, which is barely a quarterback won in points per game scoring. The Bengals were 20th in passing attempts. Second year quarterbacks that hit the six and a half percent on their touchdown rate. Historically, the next year we've seen that number dropped by an average of just under three percent. Don't tell me that. And I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom for Joe Burrell. I'm just saying for him to pay off at where we are drafting him currently, either Zach Taylor has to pump up the volume to a, yeah, pump up the jam and pump up that volume. Pump it up.

Sorry. This is what I'm here for. Thank you. Or Joe Burrow just has to play at historic levels again. Jalen Hertz, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russ Wilson. These are quarterbacks that are all going after Joe Burrow. In ADP, and just in a heads up, I would take all four of those guys over Joe Burrow to be my fantasy quarterback this year, so I just can't get behind the ADP. I'm not saying Joe Burrow is an absolute... He's going to bust and be an awful fantasy quarterback. Not at all. I just don't think he'll return on the ADP. Yes. You don't want to pay. He's icy. All right. And dicey. Snowborough. Yeah. I like it. All right. All right. Well, you can continue lifting material from us. Go on. Yeah. Let's talk about someone that is.

giant, he's 6-4-224 Michael Pittman Jr. Or, or... Tread lightly, my friend. Or is it possibly, because it works well, Michael Snowman Jr.? No. No, of course not! He's fire! Let's go down to the city! I was... We built this city! I was concerned for your safety making it out of this building. Yeah, no. Look. From me. So Michael Pittman already had his breakout, right? Last year, he was drafted as the wide receiver 45. He finishes the wide receiver 15. That's what Wins can do for you. Right. I mean, well, that's... You almost spit out of his water. The thing about Michael Pittman that I think sometimes is overlooked because, you know, he...

Maybe he's the last target in town or, you know, whatever reason. He's attached to Carson. I think they don't give enough credit to Michael Pittman for being a great wide receiver. You know, a good friend of the show, Matt Harmon, reception, he destroys those charts. Michael Pittman is fantastic. It's just a great wide receiver. He became one of seven second year wide receivers since 2010 to put up 85,006. The list of those, which is by definition actually a list, is A.J. Green, Alshon, Jeffrey, Josh Gordon, O'Dell Beckham, J. Schuster. Justin Jefferson and Pity City. That's a good list. That's a great list. And last year I talked a lot about the sophomore bump second year wide receivers breaking out. That's when it happens for wide receivers. That's when it happened for Michael Pittman. But the third year is not when they break out from nothing, but it is when they hit their true ceiling. So over the last decade, there are players that have been drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft because they were drafted. Yes. Thank you to be great. That was.

I expected that guy won. That guy won. Yeah, look, when they're drafted to be great, and they're entering their third year, if in their second year they had 120 targets. That list of players, the next season, on average, finished as the wide receiver 10 in fantasy football. Pittman had 129 targets last year. I have them down for 144, and I genuinely think that's conservative. There are not a lot of other players to throw the ball to. Paris Campbell will be out there for at least six quarters. Rookie Alec Pierce? He's a rookie. He's a rookie. Moe-A-Cox is gigantic. But he's bigger than Michael Pittman. He gets, did you just say he's bigger than Michael Pittman? Moe Alley Cotson. Yes, of course, because he's the largest man in the entire universe. Yeah, but it is difficult to be bigger than Michael Pittman. He's a big dude. And the upgraded quarterback is significant. Matt Ryan.

has spent his entire career supporting wide receiver ones. Obviously, he's got Julio Jones, and that's great. He's a Hall of Fame talent. But I'm telling you, Michael Pittman is a great wide receiver. He's not a first ballot hall of famer like Julio Jones, but he hasn't really had the opportunity yet. Can I jump in for a second? Please do. Because we've had these debates on the show. We've talked about Michael Pittman. I've worried about him not having a higher ceiling than last year. Well, one thing we talked about in the office, I was watching Kyle Pitts highlights, You know, it's fun to do. He's a really good player. But what I came away with was how many tight window, difficult downfield throws that Matt Ryan was delivering to him, which made me think maybe Matt Ryan has a little bit more left. And maybe he's a lot better than Carson Wentz at finding his wide receivers. You did it. You won over the crowd by saying Matt Ryan is better than Carson Wentz. Yeah, last year. I knew I could do it.

Last year, 99 of the 129 targets that Pittman got were even deemed catchable, which is 44th at the wide receiver position. The targets are going up. The quality of targets are going up. And where he's being drafted right now is as the, well, he's going to go up. I mean, after this show. But he's being drafted currently as the wide receiver 15. That's where he finished last year. And things are so much better for him this year. And he's going behind guys like Terry McLaurin, who's never finished as high. as Pittman already has. And he has Carson wins. At least you're making my McLaren argument to yourself on that one. All right. So Michael Pittman, you're in now. You're chasing, you're chasing, two members of Pity City. Yeah, there's two members. Well, one of us is the mayor. Yeah. One of us is a janitor. Okay, you know, that's fine. I'm the janitor. Head janitor. You think you. Head janitor. Thank you. Thank you, Brooks. That was wonderful.

One more player for you before our live mailbag. Put him up on the board. His name, Jerry Judy. Ooh. Now, he's up on the board, and maybe the sentiment, I'm hearing a lot of kind of negative energy. I'm hearing hisses. Thank you for that, Mike. I didn't want to hear. Okay. A couple of Maracas and then there's. Jones has left the building. We got it. One of those was definitely a rattler. Now, see, I wish I could believe the hisses. But unfortunately, Jerry Judy is being drafted in most drafts ahead of every one of those amazing options in Detroit. And that's terrifying. He's an ice man. Oh. I hear you. Jerry Snowdy. I hear you loud. Listen. That was, you had so much time. That's what you came up with. Jerry Snowy?

I apologize to my mother. I'm going to make my case real quick here for Jerry Judy because he is being drafted ahead of Cortland Sutton or exactly where Cortland Sutton is being drafted. Jason, you're a man of many birthdays, would you say? Yeah, I've had 40 of them. Yeah. So you know a thing or two about birthday parties? You make a big deal about birthdays. Here's the situation with Jerry Judy and fantasy players right now. This is Russell Wilson's birthday party, right? Unlimited. That's how many invitations he's actually sending out to the party. Let's ride. But fantasy players, for whatever reason, think it's like a one-on-one birthday party with Jerry Judy with where he's going in the draft. And we've really never, ever seen it from Jerry Judy. And it's not even about disrespecting the talent. It's because there are so, Oceans 11. Yeah. There are so many options. He's being drafted. A lot of big stars in that movie. He has to be Neo. He has to be the one in order.

for him to pay off in his draft costs. And it's terrifying. We have Cortland Sutton as the one, consensus-wise. But think about it, Fireball Jones, super reliable in that offense. You've got Hamler coming back, who is a speedster, who will help Russell Wilson. You have two dynamic tight-ins. You've got two dynamic running backs. And so you're asking Judy to do something he's never, ever done before, which is to barely even sniff greatness. I mean, he's been in the league for, this is third year. You're telling a Michael Pittman third year superstar story. Jerry Judy, two times in 26 career games that he finished in the top 20. So, yes, I mean, maybe all he was missing to show us greatness was Russell Wilson. But 7.7% of the time in his entire career where he was even fantasy relevant is a huge problem. And guess what? Alan Robinson.

showed you greatness with poor quarterbacks, Deante Johnson, Amon Ra last year. You saw more glimpses than you did with Jerry Judy. And so there's a lot of excitement with this system. Nathaniel Hackett's coming in. But here's the thing. He ran a ton of two wide receiver sets in Green Bay, 30-something percent of the time, 33 percent of the time. If it's Patrick, who's large, Cortland Sutton, who's large. And they've got tight ends inside and only two wide receivers. Judy's sitting on the bench, adding to that 7.7% of the time. So I think it's a huge risk. I don't mind. Taking away from it. What's that? Decreasing the 7. Yeah. Yeah, I mean. Not adding. I'm just trying to, you know, drop some math. You're a wizard. So just if you want to jump in on Sutton, at least you have the argument that you've seen a lead play from him before. He's produced. You haven't seen it with Judy. The price is too high. Everyone's trying to get the Neo in the offense.

And it might just spread out and make a bunch of people unhappy. I don't want to overdo drops either because, you know, that's... You don't? Well, at the same time, I just watched a video just like last night. It just happened to be in the Twitter feed. And I did not remember how many perfectly placed balls Jerry Judy dropped. I mean, just wide open running down and hit him right between. It's like, catch the ball, man. By the way, in the fifth round... If you want to pass on Jerry Judy, you can take Sutton, like I said. You can take Mike Williams. You can take Mike Williams. It's as close as I got to a pander here in Los Angeles. Oh, you got one more left on that list. You can take Alan Robinson. Cooper Cup! All right. That is it for ice and fire, but I need the Los Angeles fans here to give us the singular greatest mailbag drop we have ever heard. You don't drop the hisses into this one.

Until I said that. Yeah. You ready? Hit it, Brooks. Mailbag. That was crisp. That was on time. Spectacular. They had been holding out around us. A lot of performers here in Los Angeles. A lot of waiters. All right. Let's jump into the mailbag here. I can't see you, but I know you're out there. We've got a line of people over here. Oh, a brave fella in a Raiders shirt. Okay. That was once. Can we get the mailbag mic on? Yeah. Hi. All right. What's your name? How's it going? I'm Jeremiah. Nice to meet you guys. Thank you for everything you do. Yeah. My question is, will Jalen Hertz's fantasy value significantly decrease with the addition of J.L. With A.J. Brown based on his running production values. That is a great question. I'm going to hop in because I love Hertz and you know I'm going to be.

Pro Hertz here, but the reality is, you know, it's like, okay, we make a big deal about the fact that mobile quarterbacks, rushing quarterbacks, are more valuable than non-Russian quarterbacks, but it's not like you don't want them to be good at passing. Look at who's great. Look at Josh Allen. He runs a lot, but he passes a ton. Look, all you want in the end is a ton of everything. You want more yards, more passing yards, more passing touchdowns, and look no further than Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray, off of an ankle injury last year, ran the ball more when he came back. You want to know why you ran the ball more? Because he didn't have DeAndre Hopkins. So why wasn't his fantasy value better when he was running more?

Because he didn't have DeAndre Hopkins. Like, of course it is better to have a great wide receiver. He's still going to run the ball. He's going to throw more touchdowns, more yards. So the nice thing is that that line of thinking does exist. Not to the foot clan, y'all smart, but keep his ADP down for me, okay? It reminds me a little bit of how you would have talked about Josh Allen before he got Stefan Diggs and how active he was in the running game and the concerns about that. Not that he'll make that leap, but... It's not impossible that Hertz does make that. I took a deep dive on AJ Brown because I've been way lower than consensus on AJ Brown. And I like, because I'm like, this is it. I'm going to get him. He's going to be my ice player. And then after that deep dive, he got moved way up. He got moved up. He didn't end up on the show. He did not end up on the show. Jalen Hurst, I got a little more confident secure in. So Jalen Hertz is going to be fantastic.

Next question. All right, what's your name? What you got for us? What's up, ballers? My name is Greg. Stoke to be here. My question is, is we head into August and draft season. What are your up-to-date feelings about Alvin Super Camario? Yeah, I mean, he is going so low in drafts out of fear. People are afraid. The suspension is a fear. It is looming. It just seems like it's probably not going to. be this year? Yeah, so there's right now on Underdog, he usually ends up at the back of the third round. And that's where you've got to make a decision. Do you want to take a shot on him if he might be suspended for six games? You look at DeAndre Hopkins. DeAndre Hopkins goes way later in draft. He's missing six games. But Camara is a great running back. He is a true bell cow on the field for the rushing nouns, one of if not the best receiving.

So I think that the risk reward is fantastic in the third round. And we don't know about the suspension yet. We know that he's got the legal trouble, but the reality from the way that that law will go is that the NFL right now. is letting the legal process play out. Their team is going to do their best to push it until after this season. So there is a significant chance. It's not a guarantee, but there's a significant chance that his suspension comes next year. Now, if we knew that he wasn't suspended, where's he getting drafted? In the first round. Yeah, the sixth, the seventh spot. So here's the thing. It's worth the risk to me where he's at. For Camara. Because you get something no matter what. Camara on his...

By far, the most inefficient year on the ground. The guy was at 3.7 yards per attempt, where before that, he was at 5, 4.7. Like, he was way about that. Well, this was the most attempts ever, right? Yeah, yes, his most attempts ever. Misses four games. He's running back 8 last year at the end of the season. So I still feel very confident in Camara. My... Not a lawyer, but my gut is that the suspension will be pushed and the court case will be pushed until next year. Then we'll have this argument all over again. Yeah, that'll be fine. For right now, I'm getting the, I'm buying that dip. Next question. Thank you. Hey, best friends. What's up? What's your name? I'm Darcy. Darcy. And trading makes fantasy fun. But my question is, so with the increasing popularity of best ball,

Do you find that team stacking is making its way into other formats in an adverse way or can that also be beneficial? Sure, that's a good question. Jason's the best ball guy, so we'll go to him first. Yeah, so stacking is making its way a little bit more into redraft, and there's questions as to whether or not that's valuable, whether it's, you know, oh, there's more boom, there's more bust, yada, yada, yada. Matt de Sorbo, one of our great writers, he did an entire deep dive crazy data study on this a couple of years ago as to whether or not you should use it in redraft leagues.

And the answer is yes. You want boom, bust games. I know that that sounds bad. You're like, here's the deal when we play in our normal redraft leagues. You want to take the W. You want to go out and outscore your opponent. If you build a really consistent roster that's going to score 105 points every week when you need 115 to win, you're going to get some wins. You're going to get some wins when your opponent stinks. You want to... build a roster that can go out and take the wins that's going to amplify that stack and score 135 or 200 points and just win it showed basically in that study that whether you stack your quarterback with the receiving option or whether you don't on average you score the same exact amount of points but when it turned into how many times do you win it was different