Mid Round Madness + RB Surprises

between where you finished in total targets and your fantasy finish was 1.75. So, meaning you let's say you got the 10th most targets, the average finish was less than two spots from there. Maybe you were 9th, maybe you were 11th. That's really crazy. And there were two. Sounds like bad math. It does. I'm just kidding. That's crazy. And look, it's not, the correlation was not, is when you go back historically.

It's still very, very strong. This year in particular was extremely strong, and you had, this is a good place to find outliers, right? Guys who are getting the opportunity, do you project they'll still get opportunity? Because there's going to be improvement. There were two huge outliers in the top 20. Des Bryant, okay, look at the inefficiency, do you buy in, he doesn't even have a team, maybe he's done. But Demeris Thomas, he had a gap of over 10.

between where he finished in total targets and his fantasy finish. Now he gets a quarterback. Now he gets a quarterback. Case Keenham, who this past season, was 25 points higher in his pass rating than the garbage that Demeris Thomas had to play through. I think it's ridiculous for people to be writing off what Demeris has done in his career. In very recent memory, he is not an elite separator,

We have Matt Harmon charting people out for the reception. He had the second highest success rate of contested catches. So maybe he's not an elite separator anymore, but he can still get the ball when there is a fight. You're comfortable spending your fourth pick on him? If I am in the middle of the fourth round.

I'll probably grab Larry Fitzgerald, but I wanted to highlight somebody else and not just be all Larry all the time. So I think it's ironic that the two players that had that gap were Des in Demarius, because I was going to bring up Des as almost a comp to Demarius in the sense that how do you know when you're going to get Larry from last year? Right. Or you're going to get Des from last year, which is, look, these arguments were made for Des for the past couple of years of he was this player for this long and now he's this.

I think the case is strong for Demarius. I didn't see things that made me say, boy, this guy's done, and he's still the best, biggest target on that team. But it is hard to know if the wheels are falling off, or you're going to get value with an older guy. And I'm strongly on the camp that the wheels are not off yet. I think that Demarius Thomas still has.

a few years left of being a high-level fantasy player. Yeah, he's 30 years old right now, and usually for a big-bodied wide receiver, they've got another year or two before those wheels do fall off. I want to tell you this, Jason, before you choose which one to bring up, I love and hate one of yours. Sweet, let's see which one it is. I'm going to talk first. I wonder. I'm going to talk first about Carlos Hyde. Yeah. Do you love it or hate it, Andy? That's the one I hate. Yeah.

Let me tell you why. Let's go, Carlos. Let me tell you why it's a good mid-round. Where's he being drafted right now? He is being drafted at the back of the seventh right now as the running back 34 and he is plummeting. I don't really mind it as much anymore. The more that Nick Chubb continues to get publicity and oh, he looks great, the reality is they spent.

three-year, $15 million to bring in a running back who has proven in the NFL he's good. I mean, two years ago, he was the running back 15. Last year, he was the running back 9, and this was for a really bad 49ers team for the majority of that season. Now he's coming over to the Browns, where we've seen, you know, certainly better than running back 34 finishes over the last couple years. And, you know, yes, they drafted Nick Chubb, but that's why.

I remember at the beginning of this offseason, at the beginning, Carlos Hyde was a fourth rounder. And I was like, man, I wouldn't draft him there. I think that that's too high. But now he's the 34th running back being taken. And you have a history over the last couple of years of when there is a kind of proven veteran, given money. And a team comes in and spends a little bit of money on a rookie. The one that comes to mind the most to me is when Henry,

What Derek Henry was drafted and everybody said, oh, DeMarco's done. DeMarco is going to get supplanted because they drafted Derek Henry in the second. But it wasn't that way. They kept DeMarco in that role. He was their free agent they signed. And I think that's what we're going to see. They traded for it. They gave up garbage to get it. I would have a counterpoint example for that, though, with Latavius Murray last year. Team had an opportunity to improve their. He's getting paid. This year he's getting paid basically what Carlos Hyde is getting paid. He's getting paid $4 million.

Hyde's getting like 5.1, and they instantaneously made a transition to Dalvin Cook because he was available in the draft. Yeah, but except for they have a great team. And Carlos Hyde is on a team that has not been able to run the ball successfully and now has three weapons. My counterpoint to that would be Latavius Murray was coming off of surgery. They gave him the money knowing he was injured and would not be ready. But they did draft Dalvin Cook after the fact. Of course. And.

Same with Gio Bernard, by the way. Gio Bernard is being paid $5.1 million that was drafted Joe Mixing. But Gio Bernard, he's another example where he was drafted in the second round. Everyone thought he was the better running back. He was the one who was drafted. Meanwhile, Ben Jarvis Green Ellis continued to be the workhorse for that team. So even with second round running backs, there are several examples of the incumbent still holding on his job. Completely agree he's going to be better than RB 34. I think Carlos Hyde is a running back two this year.

And so when he's in the seventh round and falling, maybe the eighth, ninth round by the time the season comes around. The problem is it's a zero-sum game to me with Hyde. If Chub burns first and second time, it's not like he's out there on third down. It's Duke Johnson's third-down job. He got paid, right? Yes. So if Chubb takes any carries from Carlos Hyde, where's he getting his value?

They didn't score on the ground last year. Where's the value? Well, I mean, you've got to keep in mind. Yeah, Duke Johnson's going to be there. He's going to be split out. He's going to be in the slot a lot of times. But you did see a lot of passing volume last year from Carlos Hyde. So I don't think he's going to be never out there on third down just because Duke Johnson exists. I would guess he's never out there on third down. Mike? I think that he will still be used. Duke Johnson will be the predominant.

third down back. He's the RB 34 right now. Right now, the 34th running back, you can draft a guy who's been a top 15 running back the last two years, just got paid, and is the starter on an NBA team. What is that? On an NFL team. If you can get a starter that's, yeah, if he's playing multiple sports. I think it's actually really good value, especially, I mean, if you look at the chart of where he was. You can't argue the value.

And where he's going, he's not going to end at the seventh. He's still dropping. Even if you roll the dice, that's what mid-round madness is about. If you roll the dice on him, it's not going to cost you an arm and a leg if it doesn't pan out. And the potential, I think, is the zero-sum potential, which is he'll end up where you're saying, where he's a top 24 guy, or you fail. And it doesn't matter that much because he's the back of the seventh round. And I think it's only going to go, it's only going to get worse for him. The Chub hype's only going to get more. Agreed.

All right, I'm going to go with Sammy. Oh, I love it. Not biscuits, no, but Sammy Watkins. Right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 32. And the way I think of Sammy Watkins is this, you know, he came into the NFL as this beautiful carved marble statue for everyone to observe and hype up. And then years of erosion have...

have chipped away at what we see and saw in Sammy Watkins, culminating in 39 receptions last year on 70 targets. He's the fourth highest paid wide receiver in football right now. Sammy Watkins. Good for you, Sammy. And he's being moved around the formation in Kansas City. You have no established rapport between Mahomes and Hill any more than you have between Mahomes and Watkins. He's a weapon. He's still got four, four wheels. He's still six one.

And here's what I thought was very interesting. Over the last two years, the number 12 wide receiver in fantasy football. And this came from our case for Sammy Watkins as a wide receiver one article on the website written by one of our fine writers. Crack writers. Crack. Not crack pot. Crack. Over the last two years, the number 12 wide receiver has averaged 90 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns. If I had to modify that for Sammy, 80?

1,100, 7. I mean, somewhere in that kind of an adjustment. That seems very possible for Sammy Watkins to be in the 12 to 16 range. It's a great offense. It's an offense that has a quarterback that can accentuate the traits of Sammy Watkins. They paid big money to bring him in. And I really like what that opportunity represents in the mid to late 7th round.

It seems crazy to me the disparity between Watkins and Hill ADP-wise. Yes. I've said that all off-season. And look, Watkins is 25 years old. Question for you, because I am with you very much. You can polish that statue. Very, very much on Sammy Watkins, his value is incredible. Do you think there will be some hype and some upward movement in Sammy Watkins' draft price come August? I don't think there's going to be a difference between now and then.

I really don't. Because what are you going to see? I mean, you don't get to see regular season games with him. People are still burnt. I thought we would have seen it already. I'm surprised we haven't. Tyreeks going, what, third round? Yeah, right around there. I mean, and Watkins is going seventh. This is like. Fool me three times. You know, you just stop drafting him. For those that believe. But at least you have a full reset. You know what I mean? Right.

you have an opportunity. And in his rookie season, I mean, he had a target share that was much more representative of what I think he'll get in Kansas City. I, you know, yeah, there are things working against him. I get it if you don't want to roll the dice. But, you know, wide receiver 32, the opportunity to be much better than that is there. I am so thrilled as the resident Sammy Walker's truther over the last several years to have you on board, Andy. Welcome. You can ride shotgun.

I'm just shocked that you made it, Jason. I mean, the car had a couple accidents along the way. You weathered a various of your store. A couple flat tires, but we're still, we're still on the road. I think good things are in store. Couple pitch stops. Now we're good to go. I want to talk about a running back going in the back of the seventh round. Man, this guy has really become somebody you're waving the flag on. Yeah, maybe he's my guy this season because I just did a double check on.

Fantasy football calculator. This guy's going right after Carlos Hyde. So that would make him running back 35 if my math holds up. My calculation is all correct. Marshawn Lynch. He's old. I get it. Apparently Gruden loves them old guys. He's all about it. Last year. The problem with Marshawn last year was the hype was so strong. People were incredibly excited.

Because before he took the ear off, we all remember Beast Mode. He was a locked and loaded staple running back one. You took Marshaun, you're set at running back because he was dominating the league. So the hype got out of control. But here are the actual facts about how Marshawn did last year. He only had three games last year where he was outside of the top 36. He had 20% of his games as a running back one.

40% as a running back too. That puts him at 60% of the time he was either one or two. That's better than Jordan Howard. That's better than Devante Freeman. I think people felt like he was on a pitch count almost. Especially because when he had 15 carries, they were like, I get off the field. Right. And he had those weird games where he was sitting on the bench for prolonged periods of time. Like I said, he had those three weird games. But his percentage as a running back one or two was better than Howard, better than Freeman, better than Christian McCaffrey.

who everyone loves Christian McCaffrey this year. The offensive line, while they were disappointed, they were still ranked out as a top 12. And Gruden, the last four years of his coaching first stint, let's call it, his lead running back was getting 220 or more carries, except for his final year where Ernest Graham went down with an ankle injury, but he was still pacing to be over that threshold of 220 carries.

Marjohn Lynch last year. He was in 15 games. He missed the one with the suspension. His pace, 221 carries, 950 yards, and seven touchdowns. And he's going at the back of the seventh round. And he's running back. I mean, that's the point made by Jason with Hyde and you with Lynch is that, look, if you have a shot at a meaningful fantasy running back at this point in the draft, here's the value that's jumping out off the page.