AFC South Breakdown + Broken Promises - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/11

We got a great episode for you today, back into the divisional breakdowns with a lot to talk about, including Giovante Williams at the top, with some news and a whole lot more. Don't miss a minute. Unless one has an affinity for looking ridiculously foolish, it is wise not to stumble aimlessly into a fantasy football draft. The ultimate draft kit from the fantasy footballers contains all the information you need to avoid the jeers of your enemies. and to snuff out any glint of hope in their souls. Imagine the gasps those trouser-wearing turnips will emit as you make yet another triumphant draft selection. Imagine their tears forming a formidable puddle as you assemble an unstoppable force. The ultimate draft kit comes bursting at the seams with fantasy goodness. When you enter the draft room, you'll feel as if you were a monstrous beast let loose in a chicken coop.

Head over to Ultimate DraftKit.com today. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast Tuesday, July 11th. And I got to admit something. I'm a little on edge today. What's going on? Well, if you glance over in the direction of Deucer's Alley, which...

We try not to do very often. It's light. But if you look over there, look, my relationship to Jay Gris is, it's changing tremendously these days. Yeah. Is that because he insists that we call him Jay Riz now? No, that's not it, Mike. That doesn't help. Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous, Jay. But I think it's more a matter of. the bear problems we've been having in our lives. Oh, yeah. That's just not a sentence most people have to say. No, on bearstagram. Well, you see, what happened was is the Algo got you. Yeah, like we go up north here in Arizona, which believe it or not, I know that the storylines that have been, you know, all over Twitter has been the magma hot days that we have been having. Yeah, you go up north so that it can be only 100. Yeah, 90 to 100, which is just right.

And so you go up north a couple hours and we have a lot of wooded areas. And I had heard my whole life that there were bears. Never seen one. 39 years alive, never seen a bear. In the last three months, the bears are, the bears are back in town. Yes. And we've had big bears crossing property up there. We've had bears attacks. Yeah. Breaking into houses, going back into houses. I mean, bears are going. Eating people. I mean, it's a real bad, it's a real bad problem. Baby bears roaming around, scouting, I'm assuming. They're just looking for places to play. They are really cute. That's the problem. The baby bears are really cute. Looking for the picnic baskets. Yes, those two. Hey, hey, boo-boo.

No, Brooks, none of this means anything for the Chicago Bears this year. But it could. If you want to take that as an home in Bears fans, which I, look, why not? Maybe the Bears are out because it's a big season for Justin Fields. I'm all for that. I'm sure that Brooks is all about that because Kaleel Herbert's like his, my guy already. Yeah. So I'm just saying, Jake Grizz is. I'm looking over my shoulder with a little bit more apprehension than years past. I have never carried bear spray around on me as much as I did this last weekend. Oh, I thought you were carrying it now. No, you should have it for Jay. But when I look up and I see a giant grizzly bear, I feel like where's my bear spray? It's a little different. We have an AFC South breakdown episode today. A little bit of news to talk about a quick question on today's show. And we thank you for joining us once again.

on the fantasy footballers podcast three days a week right now in July. I just got done with a mock draft, including the deusers. Oh, great success. Saw a lot of positive feedback there. I came away from that mock draft very tired. Doing the narration of a mock draft with six people was more demanding than three. And you guys did a good job. Your team was especially well built. Brooks. Thank you. It was a lot of fun. So we just got done with that. We've got another divisional breakdown today and on Thursday. You can find us on Twitter at the FF Ballers over on TikTok as well is what I'm told we're over there. Oh, we're doing great things over there. Jason does a lot of dances, I think. Yeah, I mean, that's sometimes people just, you know, want sexy time. And so they go there looking for me dancing. Classy, bougie.

Ratchet. Yeah. There you go. Jointhefoot.com. Is that one still popular? No, no, Mike, it's not, but I enjoy it. No, because everything is that one stupid song. I'm sure we've done that one too. We don't know what we've done on TikTok. It's really, we'll find out with you. We're going to go there after the show and find out what we've done over there. The communities that join the foot.com, I encourage you check that out. It's an opportunity for you to become a part of the foot clan. 30,000 plus. You get access to the Discord server where you can find leagues and people to play with. This is the time of year. You're kind of building those leagues out or looking for people to come fill in a spot in your league. A ton of other perks, including the footcast, an extra weekly episode. And those are always a lot of fun right now this time of year. Here's the quick question of the day. Michael in Iowa, I lost my league last year. Oh, I'm sorry, Michael. Punishment awaits me.

Also, you really lost. But I also get to choose my draft spot for a 12 team league. Should I take the one spot and what slot do you prefer to draft from? I have two different answers for that question now because I, in a neutral situation, my favorite spot is the 103. That was going to be my answer. And I just take one of the wide receivers, Chase or Jefferson, or I take McCaffrey. But if I was Michael in Iowa, I would draft him the one spot. Really? I would. I would just take Christian McCaffrey at the one spot. Yes. So I am, I personally prefer the 104. You brought up Jefferson and Chase. I put Cooper Cup right there with them and then Christian McCaffrey. I want one of those four. What I found just today, I joined a new underdog league and I got the 101. And I was disappointed because I was like, I don't want to.

I was like, do I take Christian McCaffrey again? That's who I usually take it the one-on-one. I almost went Jamar Chase. I really didn't care which one of those four I got. Like I just experienced that where I was like, I wish I got a better second rounder because I'm just as happy with any of those four. And I've been thinking lately like maybe we are dumb. Well, that's a given. Well, right, right. But maybe we as an entire fantasy community are dumb for not having Jamar Chase be the 101 consideration. Yeah, like the 101. I mean, he, you know, Justin Jefferson's best wide receiver. You sure about that? He's sure about that because I know he was the best last year. He's obviously amazing. I'm not trying to take anything away from Justin Jefferson.

But Jamar Chase... You just want him to be considered. Yeah, I mean, he's a freak and his quarter... He's not having Kirk Cousins throw him the ball. You know, you want to talk about a guy who could level up again. Justin Jefferson's not leveling up from what he did last year, but I could actually see that happening for Jamar Chase. That was just my thought. Yeah, no, I... Sorry, sorry. It kind of reminded me when we were questioning, like, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup with Sean McVeigh, like... That should really work. And that's kind of how I feel about this Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, like just coming into the prime of their career. Yeah. And it's that type of thinking that makes me want him to take McCraffrey with the 101. Because you are, you were in last place last year. And the biggest thing that's going to prevent that this year to me is power at the running back position. We don't, we like these wide receivers because we've had so much to molt with different running backs.

But I feel like the biggest difference maker is, I mean, I don't think you guys disagree. If you can lock in a good running back with the position scarcity issue, I imagine if you knew that McCaffrey would be what he was last year, that wouldn't be in doubt. Almost every season, the most powerful fantasy asset is a running back. So just their higher risk. So, you know, it's hard with Chase because I think, I think it's fair to consider him in that spot. But I do, I do wonder why we. wouldn't just give Jefferson the nod. Like Chase could level up. Like Jefferson's not going to level up from the finishing at one. But like last year, Chase was hurt. He's never had a 90, or 90 reception season at least. So it does feel like he should, right? He had like 87 with injury last year. Yeah, he was 87,00046 and 9. So I, no, I get it. I don't think you're wrong to do it. I don't think any of us would say that. Chase, Jefferson, Cup, McCaffrey.

And if you wanted to say Echler, I think you're fine doing that too. See, for me, it's Hill. Like, I think we've had this discussion a few times. And I think Tyreek Hill is in that for me. So anywhere from 101 to 105 is where I want to be. And it's, if you want to lock in McCaffrey, that I have no problem with that, go 101. Otherwise hit that 105. And then you, I mean, your second player, then you get a little bit of a bump there too. Do you think that essentially you can't screw up with those. top four that's that's what it feels like to me i mean anyone can get injured but as far as like will their ability or talent or situation fall off or change or not be successful for fantasy no barring injury they're they're locked all right i'm going to give you some NFL news i need your thoughts on this is the uh kind of the second positive report in this off season i mean there have been um kind of articles that have followed up

events, but Giovante Williams, he said himself, the plan is for him to be clear for training camp. He says, I feel like I'm ready to go. It's about the evaluation how the Broncos feel about it. Just seeing how I feel and how I'm moving, just trying to get my speed back to normal things like that. Javante Williams, that storyline is huge because it has an impact on obviously his ADP where he's going to go in drafts. Smage AP Ryan. We trust Sean Payton with the running game. Javante is a very talented player. This recovery never seemed really feasible, but positive report number one, he was participating in OTAs. Positive report number two, he expects to be cleared, not for the season, but for training camp. So we're watching, right? But this would have huge ramifications if, you know, like Adrian Peterson, he was a quick healer from an injury like this and was able to get back out on the field. Yeah, it's part of the whole off season has been.

For me, at least when I'm thinking about Javante Williams, I know that this news is going to happen because this happens with everybody. J.K. Dobbins promised that he would be ready for day one for training camp so much as Ian Rappaport had a source from the Ravens who said he's not going to be there for day one. Rappaport put that out. J.K. Dobbins had some choice words for Rappaport saying, no, I will be there, was not there. And then it's just then looking at the season of what happened to J.K. Dobbins, because their injuries are very similar. Like, J.K. Dobbins wasn't ready to go at the beginning, then got re-hurt, which is a huge problem. That's a huge red flag for Javante Williams. It's not just, is he actually ready to go? He's ready to go, but the chance that he injures something else in his lower body.

because of he's still trying to recover from such a devastating knee injury, he's a really, really risky pick. But I know that the news is going to be positive because it's almost always positive of these guys. They're ahead of schedule. He's going to be there for training camp. And then even if he's not there at the beginning of training camp, we expect him soon. And we're really hopeful he won't be on the pop. Oh, we're hopeful he's going to be able to start week one. So it's. You got a, when you're drafting Javante or Somaget P. Ryan, you're making your bet. And I'm going, yes, Adrian Peterson destroyed the, like he is the standard. He tore ACL MCL in after 12. Last week of the season. It was after 12 weeks. And he rushed for 2,000 yards of next year. But he's not the only one. Frank Gore came back from his ACL two times collegiantly younger. Jamal Charles.

tore his ACL came back for $1,500. Sure, but those were just ACL tears to my memory. I just, I want it to color in the fact that, like, if the reports are positive, like, we don't want bad reports. So if they're positive and he can play week one, it will be a current surprise to us. I'm saying if it was Giovante had just torn his ACL and not ACL, LCL, what do we got, posterior lateral corner, like, I mean, he wrecked his knee, really unfortunately. If it were a clean ACL tear, I would be willing to take the risk on Giovante Williams. So does that mean you're out on him regardless of these reports this summer? Currently, yes. Yeah, I actually lean towards Mike's side. I mean, obviously, if he's full participant.

in all of training camp, then that's out the window. You look at what's going on with Brees Hall's ADP and you compare that to Javantes. And it's like, no one seems to care that much about Brees Hall. He's fine. He's, you know, a very highly drafted pick. And he had, you know, it was a couple weeks difference in the timeline for their injuries. The big issue here is. What Mike was saying, it's more than just the ACL. It was a much more egregious injury, although Brees was more than the ACL as well. I'm guessing that right now, Brees's ADP is too high, Javante's ADP is too low. They will settle somewhere nearer to each other. Brees was ACL and meniscus. Right. So it wasn't a little easier. It wasn't multiple ligaments. But so, you know, when I look at the bets that you make in fantasy, I find that the best.

odds is to bet against a guy off of the injury Giovante has. Yeah, right now that bet is not an expensive bet. Fair. Yeah, it's not costing you a lot. So the upside represents a lot more than where his ADP is. So, I mean, RB 29 on underdog right now, 26 on sleeper. Are you taking Monty over him, Mike? Yes. Rashad White. Yeah, probably. Okay. Alexander Madison for sure. Yeah. This news wasn't to say, I'm not making a declaration that he's going to be healthy. This was just passing along a second positive report of the offseason. It's a good conversation. To say, keep your eyes open because if he starts making progress like Mike said, in training camp he looks good. He's taking first team reps. This is not, I mean, this is going to be like kind of a quick swap to a different mindset for the Denver backfield than I've been approaching it with. Like, I've been looking at Somaget-P-Rine as a value later in drafts. And if week one is Giovante out there?

I don't think the P-Rine value is there anymore at all. No, if that training, you know, trying to stay water and be willing to, but it's just, you're like, at this point of this recording, I am, I'm not taking him at his ADP. I'm very happy for him if this is the case, because it was a major injury. Yeah. And for him, and he's come back, he said, you know, I only have one way that I know how to run with violent intentions. I'm going to be going as hard as I can possibly go. So. I do expect if he's back out there to be himself. It's just a matter of is that four weeks in? Is that three weeks in? Do they take a lot of pressure off of him with P. Ryan to start the year? I mean, these are all things we don't know yet. We don't even know what this offense is going to look like under Payton. So it should be interesting. Let's get divisional. Well, it is our second divisional breakdown episode this year talking about offseason changes between 2022 and 23.

looking at how these offenses could function today. We're in the AFC South, and we'll close it out like we do every divisional breakdown and make our predictions for who's going to win the division, maybe the order of the division like we did last week. Yeah, the order is going to be a little bit more important than the division winner. I'm guessing at the end of this episode. We did the AFC North, which we all had Cincinnati winning. I believe both of you went Baltimore as the two. I went Cleveland as the two. Yep. Which actually you two were going opposite of the sports books on that one. And then you guys had the Browns in the basement with Pittsburgh above them. And I obviously, according to Twitter, hate Pittsburgh. And Baltimore. And Baltimore. Yeah. And Baltimore. Yeah. And all the teams that I didn't say are going to win the Super Bowl, to be fair. Yeah. Hate her.

Last year in the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars won it at 9 and 8. Tennessee was 7 and 10, Colts 4 and 12, Texas 3 and 13. Just took an overwhelming control of the division. Yeah, this was a bad division last year. Tennessee dealt with significant injuries. They could not get it going as the perennial favorite in that division of late. Colts had a disaster of a season. They did everything they could to lose. Yeah, they were bad not just on Sunday, but on Saturday, too. And then Houston, 3 and 13. So they combined outside of the division to win four times total against playoff teams. That's not good. Yeah, and it was the, what, the Colts, despite having four wins, they had beaten Kansas City in week three. Jacksonville were the other three. They beat the Chargers, Baltimore, and Dallas.

So they were 4 and 21 against playoff teams last year. So we just talked about one of the best divisions at the AFC North, and last year this was one of the worst. So fantasy points wise, this is worth noting. Good insight here from Kyle. Outside of Jacksonville, wide receiver fantasy points were severely lacking in the division. Jacksonville had the eighth most, right? Because Christian Kirk was pretty darn good. Zay Jones spot start. Indianapolis, 20th. Houston 28th and Tennessee. 32nd at the wide receiver position. That's how Houston likes it, though. So, I mean, really you at, but that was still. Brable's like, I can bring that down. It was still what, Pittman, Brandon Cooks, and then Traylenberg's, those were the three names we would have been paying attention to. Didn't add up. Quarterback play was a huge part of that. Yeah, the division sucked. You had injuries to Tennessee. Obviously, Indie and Houston were just dumpster fires. But we could start with the Jaguars who got good.

They are a good team. I know that they're going to be a lot of people's darlings this season, but if you remember last year, they started two and six. They were not that great. And then they finished the year, eight and three in their final 11 games, including a five-game winning streak. And it wasn't a situation where... You know, they just kept accidentally winning the close games. They're one-score games. They were still sub-500. So there's room for improvement here, and the improvement is going to come from T-law. Trevor Lawrence either steps up and is a superstar, and then this division is completely owned by him. They all get the Trevor Lawrence tattoo, the long hair. Every team has to get that tattoo on their back because I think he's going to own it for a while. Or...

He isn't a superstar, and, you know, then this entire division just sucks. You see that as a binary situation? Yeah. You're pretty black and white about this. Yeah, that was, I mean, couldn't he just be kind of pretty good? And then Tennessee's pretty good and it could be more competitive? I think if he's pretty good and Tennessee's. pretty good, then this division still stinks. But my belief, I've shared this before, I've drafted this way in my drafts, but I believe Trevor Lawrence is going to do it. I think he's going to take this team to the heights that they have really not been at since. Well, you're going to get them on showcase week two, at home, Kansas City. That's going to be a fun game. They start on the road against Indy.

So they'll get to see potentially Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshu. Nine and eight last year, but ended eight and three. And that's where a lot of the optimism comes from. The five-game winning streak, the playoff victory against the Chargers. Last year, their win total was six and a half. This year is at nine and a half, although it's been bet down from ten and a half. So the division is theirs for the taking, that is for sure. Trevor Lawrence showed that he could in. kind of over not just one game here one game there he could step up and and be a fantasy force and he's going to be one of those quarterbacks in that range we were in the mock draft on Saturday where it's like you know middle rounds the Trevor Lawrence and Tua and Deshawn Watson and in you know maybe you throw Lamar in there maybe he's above but that group of quarterbacks has a lot of upside

Yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of who you believe in. I know you like Deshawn Watson a lot. I don't. I like Trevor Lawrence a lot. But that's why they're in those middle rounds. You're trying to take a shot on upside and talent. The reason that I believe in the upside of Trevor Lawrence, it's not just because he was drafted at the 101 to be a superstar, but it's because of the coaching staff and the players around him. Calvin Ridley, we haven't seen in a long time. We don't know if he's still great, but we do know that he has been a great wide receiver.

You add him to what, you know, we just talked about that was the number eight wide receiver core last year in fantasy points. There's a lot of weapons on this offense. And when you play in this division and you get to play, you know, the Colts and the Texans and the Titans six times, it's a good baseline. Travis E.T.N. Let's talk about him. Last year, explosive, 5.1 to carry. Nine yards per reception. But the big question mark is, can this Clemson duo that had such a rapport in college kind of in the passing game, can that be the source of improvement for Travis TN? Because only 14% of Lawrence's targets went to running backs last year. That was the second lowest in the NFL. Obviously, he is a mobile quarterback. So when a play breaks down, he's capable of kind of, you know, taking off as opposed to dumping it off.

But to me, that is an area of opportunity for this offense. It's certainly an opportunity, but now you have, it seems like this is more likely to continue than to see a gigantic increase in targets. ETN targeted on 12.7% of his routes, second worst at the running back position. They bring Tank Bigsby in. This is like Travis ETN is, I think, a. A very risky pick, as in the upside is there, but I think that the downside is there as well. The beginning of the year started off. The Jaguars were really working James Robinson in, and Robinson was having fantasy success. He didn't necessarily look fantastic on the field, which is why they eventually pulled him and then traded him away. But Travis ETN took over there.

They didn't have another plan because James Robinson was so much in their plans that ETN was getting the bulk of the work. But I think that Tank Bigsby is a threat to put this into far more of a committee, seemingly the way that Doug Peterson has done things, that that's what Doug Peterson would prefer. So that's why I think that your, I don't know that the targets are going to go up for Travis ETN. Meanwhile, I believe that Tank Bigsby will take away. more work from ETM than over the second half. Anyone was taking away from him before. Not that ETM will be terrible for fantasy at all, but just rankings wise, our consensus has him six spots below where he's currently being drafted. He's being drafted as the running back 13. Our consensus has him at 19.

You didn't mention Deerness Johnson either. Michael Hasty was involved last year. Yeah, Hasty was involved. They added Deeranis Johnson and then obviously spent a pretty high draft pick on Tank. That's why I was focused on Tank. Yeah. And if you look at the game log for. ETN last year. There was a stretch when they realized, oh, James Robinson's toast, and he was gone, that he's playing 80%, 79%, 81%, 78%, 78%, 75%. These are numbers that very few running backs in the league are on the field for that snap percentage. And when they come out and say, we want to get more backs involved so we can keep ETN healthy, and then they go and do it.