AFC South Breakdown + Broken Promises - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/11

he's not playing that percentage of snaps. Now, he's super explosive. So when you get a young, explosive guy on a good offense that projects for nine and a half wins, I'm fine with the draft pick, but I don't see him having this show to himself. Well, one of the problems is he only had one touchdown over the last eight weeks of the season. And we should remember those first four games last year. He was coming off of a major injury that cost him the year before. So it made sense that they were going to ease him into the offense. All good points that you guys are making. Calvin Ridley.

We'll find out. We'll find out. He's 28, turning 29. Final year of his rookie deal, but he'll join Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. It does push, even if you don't, you know, have the confidence to invest the high pick on Ridley, which, like, you can take that shot. It does push down my expectations for Zay Jones to be a regular contributor with the return of Evan Ingram with, you know, Travis E.T.N's involvement. You mentioned Biggs B, but Ridley and Kirk, like it seems like predictability on Zay Jones's involvement is going to be very difficult. I would agree. I think it also personally impacts Evan Ingram. You just add another piece where you're splitting the pie four ways. And Calvin Ridley is someone that I'm willing to take a bet on, but I am also willing to admit I think it's a bad bet in the sense that historically you're talking about a 28-year-old turning 29 who hasn't played in a long time.

in an offense with other very capable wide receivers, he's being drafted as the clear wide receiver one. You're calling your shot there if you're taking that draft pick. And I'm fine trying that, but I do. My advice for most people would be the odds say that it's probably not the right pick. Yeah, and I don't want to like fully put these two situations together, but like there were huge expectations for the return of Josh Gordon because Josh Gordon had put up the kind of season. that was like wide receiver one capable, right? Like his physical ability and his talent, like they're not like parallel circumstances, obviously. But a long wait, finally a return, and then not necessarily like, you know, if Calvin Ridley is number one and the go-to guy in the most receptions, won't be surprised. But if he's also just a guy that gets like four targets a game and there's a bunch of deep threats and they work a bunch of other people into the offense,

That wouldn't surprise me either. So there's a lot of potential upside, but he's being drafted fairly high. Yeah, I mean, he's a fourth round pick, the wide receiver 19. He's being drafted to do it. And I think that there is a world where he ends up as the number one, and it's still not good. Like the number one for this offense, but that's just not enough target share with the other guys. And it not only is the part of the story is Calvin Ridley's being drafted for sure. Like the ADP in the crowd says, we know that Calvin Ridley's the guy.

Meanwhile, the wide receiver 11 of last year, who still is continuing to get that gigantic bag of money, Christian Kirk is being drafted in the back of the sixth as the wide receiver 32, which I get it. I get that. When I hear about, when I think about drafting Christian Kirk, it's not an exciting proposition. But to be the 32nd wide receiver off the board, if. If you believe in Lawrence. If you believe, that's exactly what I was going to say. There are many, many, many Trevor Lawrence believers. I think you should be thrilled to get yet another value. Where does T. Higgins go right now? Third round? Yeah, right around. Like, he's a, I think he's in the top 12 or so. So the question is, do you believe in Kirk the way, has the potential to be like Higgins and Devante Smith? Like, he's not those guys. But if you believe Lawrence can throw up for 4,500 yards, where's it going?

Well, I mean, you saw this two years ago where Christian Kirk was the number two for his offense. He was the wide receiver 26 in football in fantasy. So that, you know, he might just be good. Yeah, he's already out producing, you know, his wide receiver 33 draft cost. One quick evening room question before we move on, Mike. Would you take him in the eighth round? I'd be willing to, yes. Jason? No. All right. Quick break back with the Titans. All right. Time to move on in the AFC south to the. Tennessee Titans, a strange and bewildering sight, seven and ten. A projected win total before last year, a more Mike Vrabel asks nine and a half. And this year it's only at seven and a half because there are question marks on this team. It almost feels a little bit like a team hanging on to its identity from the edge of a cliff and everyone's like, just let go. Just let go. It's over. And then maybe they're like, no, we can.

We could climb this mountain again. It feels like a really, really nice go cart that's kind of made out of aluminum foil. And you're really worried. That's nice and light, man. Exactly. You get that speed. Oh, it's going to, you know, the acceleration will be there. Just don't have anything go wrong. Because if you hit a bump, it's all going to collapse. You've got Ryan Tannahill who can be efficient. He can be a good quarterback. I've seen it. He could also just end up getting. benched for banana ramma you've got derrick henry one of the best running backs in all of football for the last five six seven years and he's old enough and has enough wear and tear on his tires that it's like that could be this could be the end this team just seems like best case scenario is they win the division they're a 10 win team they're super well coached banana ramma never sees the field it doesn't need to

Worst case scenario is the wheels just fall off and this team could be, you know, by midseason playing for the number one pick. What helps them is the division they're in because I think that they're going to be able to hang on. They started so strong last year and it just fell apart. Do you need to read the numbers? The Tennessee Titans finished the season at 7 and 10. Heading into week 12, they were 7 and 3. They were 7 and 3. They lost 7 games in a row. to end the season. They had the third most. The wheels fell off. Games lost due to injury last year. They also were minus 54 in fourth quarter point differential, according to Warren Sharp. It was a disaster, but in the midst of disaster, which, by the way, I believe their offensive line is ranked 32nd after being 32nd last year, in the midst of disaster, can sometimes be opportunity. I think Derek Henry,

who's being drafted as the RB7, maybe had the most casual near 2,000 total yard season that anybody has ever had. I mean, he had another 349 opportunities on the ground for over 1,500 yards and, oh, let's just throw in almost 400 receiving yards. So the question of whether Derek Henry is still in the year is the running back one, I think is still, I think the answer is he still could. Absolutely he could. And the fact that they started getting him involved in the passing game, I mean, we've said this forever. Like Derek Henry is great. He's the only running back all draft that doesn't catch the ball. Except what if he does catch the ball? Because he did last year. You know, prior to last season, he had never been out of the teens in receptions. And then last year, he was at 33 receptions was actively involved. Now, some of that could have been the fact that they had.

absolutely no one else to throw the ball to. Traillen Berks was injured, Kyle Phillips was injured. There just was nobody. Obviously, Robert Woods was there. Like we said, they didn't really have anybody. You sure about that? Robert. Robert, Robert Woods was on the Alan Robinson playing last year. Yeah. I mean, he had 90 targets, Mike. Robert Woods had 92. He caught 53 of them for 500 yards. That's the, Alan Robinson was like, nice. That was a great season, Robert. Yeah. So do you think Henry, do you think they found something to get him more involved? Or do you think that was just necessity and he'll go back to the teens in receptions? No, I don't think they have other weapons. I mean, they have the most bewildering wide receiver room. They're putting a tremendous amount of faith in Traylon Burks, which for a fantasy sake is worth a great. I mean, he's definitely worth a shot. Like this offense to succeed with Mike Rabel might just need Tanna, Berks, and Henry to get enough done.

If it succeeds, it will be those three. And if that happens, that's fantasy gold. Because whenever you look around at the end of seasons and you see a real valuable asset in fantasy, it's usually very consolidated. You know, it's like Cooper Cup just gets everything. So Traylon Burks, if he is, you know, it's him and Henry. That's great for fantasy. And because the rest of the wide receiver room is Nick Westbrook Aquina, Kyle Phillips, Chris Moore, and Racie McMath, Chicka Conquil will have an opportunity to break into this offense. Yes, it will. And we've seen success at the titan position on these rosters before he's super athletic. He led all tight ends in yards per route run, second in targets per route run. I love him. He's one of those players that I think.

just stood out to me towards the end of the season. And I had a quick, quick couple games of watching film on Chicka Conco to say, this is a wide receiver that's running around out there. So it's tough to put a lot of eggs in the 28th ranked point per game offense from last year. And it is a, it's a machine that if you lose one part, the whole machine is going to break that, that, uh, Go Kart is going to crumble, and it's like you can't take Tanhill out, you can't take Henry out, and you can't take Berks out. No. Which like Berks may not be ready for that level of responsibility. He's going to get it. There's not a choice. And the reports have been very positive. So it just feels like a fragile team. Yeah, I would agree. I think it is fragile. There's value to be had. I would still like, I mean, Trailing Berks right now is the wide receiver 35 in ADP.

I love that. I've got him as my wide receiver 25. I'm well ahead of ADP on Trailing Berks. Berks or Christian Kirk? I would take Berks. Because they're both drafted almost at the same spot. I'd go upside pick of Berks. Okay. Yeah, that's where I would be too. And then just we're way too early, generally speaking to even consider playoff weeks. However, it's worth mention. However, Houston, Seattle, Houston. for Mr. Derek Henry, should he still be toting the ball in those weeks? So we have to wait for the playoffs to get Houston Derek Henry? I mean, or. That is a little sad. Or you get to wait. That's true. Depends if you've drafted him or not. We'll have to remind people. They might not remember right now. The Colts went four and twelve. They had a nine and a half win total last year. Give them their tie. Four, twelve, and one.

This year the projected win total is six and a half. You're taking the over or the under there? Excuse me. Yeah. I mean, I think it's like six or seven. So I think it's a good line. What do you think? I ask the questions. Yes, yes, yes. Honestly, it's such a great line. I will take the over. I wanted to see how you lean there because I think that is the right line. The coaching last season. was a purposeful calamity upon this team. The men were led, Jason. The men were led by Jeff Saturday after they, I believe, incorrectly sacrificed Frank Reich, got rid of him, didn't bring in a head coach to coach this team, and then they went hard after that great pick, which ended up in Anthony Richardson.

Yeah, say between Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich, one of the guys is still a head coach in the NFL. Right. And one of the guys never was. Well, they lost the final seven was Saturday after he won his debut. Which hurt, Mike, I'm sure. Oh, it was, it was tough. It was tough. But we came out on top, everybody. We've. Go ahead, Jason. Shane Steikens coming over as the new head coach. This was last year's offensive coordinator for Jalen Hertz and the Eagles. It seems like a really nice pairing with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. It's going to be a raw offense. So when I look at the win totals, I'm switching to under. Yeah, I really am. I leaned towards the under with a first time head coach and a very inexperienced and raw.

quarterback as a rookie who I think will start the vast majority of games. If he's not out there week one, he will be out there soon. And if you're drafting Anthony Richardson, one of the things that gives you a little bit of comfort is that even if he's not the starter week one, he'll be in on goal line packages. They're going to work him into those games where he's not the starter. So you can have some fantasy points. I'm speaking more of like best ball leagues. But yeah, I do lean the under for this team. It'll come down to, you know, can Anthony Richardson, if he gets in there, does he run the football? Because we know that's going to be a cheat code in fantasy. There's only four rookie quarterbacks with 600 plus rushing yards ever. And that was Cam, RG3, Josh Allen, and Lamar. But every rookie quarterback over the last 20 years with 80 plus total rushing attempts finished top 10 in fantasy points per game. Don't underestimate that. That's 4.7 carries a game. If Anthony Richardson starting, I will be shocked.

that he's not above 4.7 carries a game. And so that's like hiding in plain sight, ranked, being drafted as the quarterback 12. We've got him lower. We don't know if it'll be Gardner to start. But if he runs the ball more than 4.7 times a game, every single rookie quarterback has been a top 10 in fantasy points per game. And it's also, it's what Trey Lance would have been and he got to start as a rookie, who was also a goal line package guy that year. So don't underestimate that, but it does seem like the, like you said, the rest of the offense, it's not impressive. Michael Pittman last year, he did his best, but it wasn't great. And you lose Paris Campbell, who was a reliable pass catcher in the offense last year, and you replace him with Josh Downs and Isaiah McKinsey. So.

The ancillary pieces don't excite me. You've got Anthony Richardson, who I think in his own right, is going to be awesome for fantasy football. I'm not drafting a ton of him because I think he'll get off to a slow start, but I think I'm going to be picking him up off of waiver wires. If you do draft him, don't drop him to the wire. You look at Josh Allen's rookie season. He started the year just horrendous, worthless for fantasy. And yet he finished, like you said, as a top 10 per game because he ended the year awesome once they figured out how to, you know, utilize his skill sets. But he's going to hurt Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's going to be good, but not great. It's not going to be the running back one because you're going to have rushes vultured and you're not going to have Matt Ryan, Philip River dumpoffs. You're going to have Anthony Richardson rollouts. So that hurts. And then Michael Pittman, you're taking a pie that.

was, you know, 4,500 yards or at least 4,000 yards with some of those veteran quarterbacks. And you're going down to, I don't think he throws for 3,000 yards. So if that's the case, it's just you're not getting a ton, even if you're 25% market share. My biggest concern, too, is like, is this the kind of rebirth of the Colts identity as an offense? Because Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are both in contract years this year. Josh Downs was a draft pick that they invested in. They have a young Alec Pierce, who I think is really talented. So was Michael Pittman a part of the future for the Indianapolis Coles? Because I'd be shocked that they would invest heavily on Michael Pittman as they're trying to turn this roster over and go youth with Anthony Richardson. I think they have to, though. I think they will. I'll be shocked.

If they invest it. I think it's much more likely they bring Jonathan Taylor back on a contract than Michael Pittman. I believe that they need to set Anthony Richardson up for success. They don't have the wide receiver court beyond Pittman, in my opinion, to let Pittman go. They may be in play for Harrison. Sure. I mean, we'll see how bad it goes. I mean, you get to take advantage of the rookie contract. Like when you have a rookie quarterback, that's when you have the room that you can pay. or overpay, I should say, for a wide receiver. Let's spend a minute on Jonathan Taylor before we move on because I feel like we've probably talked about him. I think Jay Gris is making noise back there. Was that Jay Gris? Maybe. What, Al? Okay. Nope. Get in there. Oh, Al. You've been called. Get in there. You're on the show now.

Put the camera inducer Sally. Oh, yeah. Because let me just explain what happened here in the shame. Go ahead and hide behind wherever you want. We're sitting here where I think we're probably breaking down this team as excellent as anybody could. Yeah, has ever done. And then I hear just clank, blunk, blank sounds over there. And I'm thinking Brooks is making all the noise. And instead Al Borland, who's now hiding behind a bear. What happened? Somebody explained themselves. He just ran into something over here. He ran into something. He was trying to work on something. Yeah. I knocked this over. Yeah, I did put that. The other deucers sign that we have. Yeah. Well, impressive. Good work. Al making his one contribution to today's show. That was his worst nightmare, by the way. Oh, as you guys know. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Well, he can, you know. We suck it up, buttercup. We really enjoy taking.

as big a bus as you can drive, and then rolling that right over your friends, and then backing that up, and then putting it right into drive. You ever seen a quadruple Decker bus? Oh, yeah. We drive it. Scorish. What did you say? Scourge. It's like a squash, except it's way worse. It's got an R in there? Yeah. Speaking of buses. Yeah. Talk about Jonathan Taylor for a second. He is a bus. And I'm going to let Mike, I'm going to give you the. the moment here because Jason kind of shared his thoughts about the way this season may play out. But Jonathan Taylor is, let's not forget, the number six and the number one overall fantasy finisher last year, lost season in a lot of respects due to the injury and re-injury. So he still ran for four or five a carry. Half of it was on an injured ankle. Do you agree with Jason's take on his ceiling? Does he not have running back one potential? Because in our mock drafts,

Recently, we've seen him as the second running back off the board. Yeah, right now, RB4 in ADP, and I'm not willing to go RB4. We have him as a top 10 guy, but there's just so many things stacked against him. How good is this team? And because that's compounded by you're going to have a rookie quarterback in there sooner than later. Maybe Gardner, maybe they give him week one. because he gets to go to a revenge game against the Jags. But Anthony Richardson is the future of the team, and he'll be in there sooner than later. Anthony Richardson is a mobile quarterback. So that takes away all the, like Jason said, the Philip Rivers checkdowns and the Matt Ryan checkdowns. Those will not be flowing for Jonathan Taylor. And then you have goal line being taken away from Johnny Taylor. And running backs just, when a running back is on a

A team that's not great, more often than not, it takes away from their fantasy upside because that team's not putting a point. So I am, I'm not concerned at all with Jonathan Taylor's ability, but his situation is not great. And for him to be taken as the running back four, I don't think that's factoring in enough of the situation that he finds himself in. All right, I want to talk about the Texans. Really? And I was going to bring up the fact I think they are going to be much, much better than they were last year. And then I went and I looked and the projected wind total reflects that. So the opinion, last year they were four and a half. This year they're six and a half. That's the same as the Colts. I think they're going to make huge strides this year. C.J. Stroud arrives. The future, I think, is very, very bright with the transition to D'Amico Ryan's at head coach.

who will fix the defense. That's going to happen in Houston. They invested, obviously, early draft picks to bolster the defense, to add a quarterback in C.J. Stroud. It's been a good offseason. They added Devin Singletary and Mike Boone to the running back room. They added Dalton Schultz as the tied in. They added Robert Woods and Noah Brown, lost Brandon Cook's a wide receiver, but they also drafted two guys, Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. One and a half. Is that because of Tankdale is so teensy-tincey? Yeah. He's a, he's petite. To me, there's a lot of addition this offseason that I like with Houston. And I would take the over on the six and a half. I think there'll be a seven-win team this year and I do not think they'll be the basement dweller. You know, what's funny is whether or not this team or the Colts team is going to go over or under.

probably will be dictated by who wins the series of those two games. Like do the Texans beat the Colts in their matchups or vice versa? This team should be significantly better. Will Anderson on defense. They trade it back up to grab, you know, it's like, oh, are they going to take Will Anderson? They're going to take CJ Stroud. Why not both? Yeah. And thank you for that, by the way, as a Cardinal fan, because I want a good pick next year. I would take the under on the Texans. I think that the elite talent, if I had to say who's going to win the heads up matchup between the Colts and the Texans, I think the Colts win those games. But for fantasy purposes here, there's a lot of question marks. Damian Pierce last season was a revelation. He was the best fourth round rookie running back that we have seen ever, or at least back to 2000, where most of my data comes from. But he wasn't.

He was really good on film. He was really good for total fantasy points. But there were a lot of problems and inefficiencies there, too, for having an offensive line that is very expensive and should be good. This now is a new regime that comes in, and they bring in Devon Singletary as a free agent. This team is not heavily invested in Damien Pierce. So... And Damien Pierce last year when he was having great success, he was it. His market share of the running back room was a stranglehold over the position. So I find myself pretty much out on Damian Pierce, even though I love the film last year. I don't know if you guys agree or disagree with that. I think that there's an argument to be made on both sides. Yeah, I'm okay with the draft price. Like I think Damian Pierce is a much better running back than Devon Singletary. I think both will be involved.

And I think he overperformed because of what you said, the amount of volume. You know, you talk about it. It's the Travis E.T.N argument to a degree where because of the situation they were in, the snap counts were extremely high. You know, this was the running back 13 from weeks 3 through 13. So we know he can get it done for fantasy. And last year's team, Houston, they were 30th in points per game. This is not a good team, 31st in total yards. And yet he ran very, very hard. That's what he does. He's a violent, vicious runner. Singletary is much more, I think, at this stage of his career, a tried and true runner, a guy that just gets the job done. But I think there's a difference between them. And so, you know, if you believe that, like the sports books say, that they're going to be a little bit better this year, can you be, you know, can you improve that points per game as a team overall, or are you going to be stuck because of this rookie quarterback? That's a big question. It will be interesting.

Because this is now, like, you know, this is Central America in the middle of the country, but it's San Francisco. Like these are, like D'Amico coming over for San Francisco. Bobby Sloak, the offensive coordinator, has been a Shanahan guy. Like since 2017, when Kyle Shanahan was the head coach of the 49ers, Bobby has been there, you know, in one way or the other. He started as a defensive quality control. But then he moved into an offensive assistant, then a passing game specialist. And the Shanahan system, if he's going to bring that run scheme over, very valuable. Like we see a lot of players who you don't think they're like, oh, that's just a, that's a jag running back. You put him in the Shanahan system and incredible things happen. But also for Kyle Shanahan, before McCaffrey, this would be a running, a very,

very running back by committee. And you don't even necessarily know for sure who's going to have what role at what time. So I think that that needs to also be a factor of if you're looking at Damien Pierce, he needs an overwhelming amount of volume. And I don't think he's going to get that. Running back 27, that's not an ADP that says he's for sure going to be locked in and do what he did last year. So maybe he's worth that draft price. No, no, no, he's the running back 19 right now. We have him. Oh, we have, oh, I'm sorry. Running back 27. Okay, flip that reverse it. I actually, I read the RB 27 as well when I said that I would approve. Oh, did we? That I would approve that I would approve. Whoops, the doozles. I would approve an RB 27 ADP. Yeah, that's why I agree. That's not where we are, apparently. And if he's going in the fifth, there's going to be other players at different positions I want.