Trade Targets + Value Debates, Hungry for More - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/27

I believe that the talent of Garrett Wilson, we saw it last year. Did they have quarterback play in New York last year? Nope. When when Zach Wilson was off the field, they had. A little bit. They had better. But I mean, it was a challenge on offense, and Garrett Wilson still had a big year. Look, that's a couple of trade for ideas. I will hand off the baton. Well, since you're bringing up last year, I'm going to trade for a player who was great last year, who was bad the first three weeks of last year. Who's been bad the first three weeks of this year? Yeah, he has. Talking about Josh Jacobs currently, though, running back 25 and half PPR scoring, he has not eclipsed 10 fantasy points, 8.1, 7.4, 9.5 fantasy points per game. You look back at last year, the first three weeks, he averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game. 16.7 opportunities, so he was getting the ball just wasn't getting it done last year.

Don't know why those things happen sometimes, but they're happening again. Because this year, he is getting 19.7 opportunities per game. The running back landscape is putrid right now. Everyone is in need of running backs. The only teams that seem like they're okay at running back are the ones that just happen to get, you know, a Kyron Williams or Zach Moss and pick someone up that. was unexpected to add to their roster. Because a lot of these guys that we drafted to be relied upon have not worked out. And I think Josh Jacobs' managers are freaked out that like, this guy just isn't getting it done. He's not that good. This is an elite running back who is getting almost 20 opportunities per game with no one on the depth chart that's going to change that going forward. Josh Jacobs, this is the worst stretch of his season.

So for me, I will 100%. I've gone and made a couple offers for him in a couple different leagues. I'm not paying a premium. I'm not trying to say, like, I think he's going to be the running back three like he was last year after, you know, the bad start to the season. But he's a quality volume play that is not going anywhere. And managers who have him, I think, are willing to sell him cheap right now. After three weeks, the... The smell is starting to accumulate on the nostrils of Jacobs managers because I even found myself in my dynasty league going, is he the guy I try to move? Do I try to move him to try to get younger someplace? Because it's not been a fun ride. But I like that you brought him up here. It encourages me, Jason. Generally speaking, you have to.

buy into running backs. We're getting that opportunity. We do have, now we're only three weeks in, but you've got to make some decisions. Week one is what freaks me out. They played the Denver Broncos. And in that matchup that we have seen now two other games, the Washington Manders destroy them on the ground in Brian Robinson, the fiasco against the Miami Dolphins running backs. And in week one, Josh Jacobs and crew was only able to manage. 2.5 yards per carry against that Denver Broncos team. Now, maybe they were more fired up because it was week one, and they're now getting demoralized and losing faith in their defense. But that is the one note where I'm like, I don't know that Jacobs is going to turn it around. But the argument for pure volume, and if you can get pure volume cheaper than you would have paid for the draft, I would do it. Okay. Mike, your trade.

for candidate is? It is Zach Charbonnet of the Seattle Seahawks rookie running back who, and this is a play for the future. The snaps of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are cross-fading. Like, look, Walker has been great. Eli, for fantasy football, I think that's what makes trading for Zach Charbonnet an even easier proposition right now. When you go to whoever is holding on to Charbonnet and you go, Look what Walker's doing? You think Charbonnet is not the guy right now. Meanwhile, the snaps for Kenneth Walker, 63, 61, the snaps for Charbonate, 24, 26, 43. He was brought down on the two-yard line on an absolute beast of a run. He was drafted around two for a reason. I still, like, I don't think he's overtaking Kenneth Walker to be the number one.

But I think that this is going to morph into a timeshare sooner rather than later. And right now you don't have production that is matching the outside peripherals looking at the opportunities that Charbonnet is getting each week. Three opportunities week one, six the next, 11 the next one. And Charbonnet is going to be the guy they turn to when they need to pass the ball. And they're scoring 37 points each of the past two weeks. Like this is a... This is an offense that's starting to get it going. Both Walker and Charbonnet can have fantasy relevance. But, Andy, you're going to talk about Kenneth Walker. If a manager is in love with Walker right now, it's going to be pretty hard to go get him. Meanwhile, Charbonnet is not doing a ton, and I think that the arrow is going to be pointing up. Yeah, let's transition into tradeaway because I intentionally put Kenneth Walker into that category.

And you guys might both disagree with this assertion. He's the running back three. So it's rare to say, hey, a guy that's dominating for fantasy, you should move him. But it's very difficult. Charbonnet snap counts are going up. He seems to be the two-minute drill back. Kenneth Walker has scored four touchdowns in two weeks. Josh Jacobs, three games, all those opportunities, no touchdowns. You're not getting 38 touchdowns a year from Kenneth Walker. He has benefited from. Two weeks, Detroit, Carolina, 37 points in each week. I think he's a top 12 running back. But if you can cash in on the ceiling level, like you could go get a different running back right now. Like could you go and acquire, you know, make an offer for the tippy, tippy top of the running back position? If you attach Kenneth Walker with somebody else, would you be tempted?

You're saying to try to go get Christian McCaffrey using Kenneth Walker plus something else. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I would do that. I would do that. If I can trade up from Kenneth Walker, I would do that. Now, let me, let me offer one more, two guys we talked about. Would you trade Kenneth Walker for Josh Jacobs and Garrett Wilson if the manager had that? Yes. Okay. I would. I would. That's very, I would as well. You would? I would. I would. I would rather have the. the Jacobs and Wilson, Garrett Wilson's side. Yeah, I mean, those are two players that have been frustrating through three games. That opportunity and talent is something you believe in for both. And that would take a lot. I mean, Garrett, Kenneth Walker paid 51% of snaps this past week. And he was great. He was dominant. He is a super, super talented player. But he has dealt with injuries historically. And Mike,

You know, you just talked about Zach Charbonnet. There are going to be some games where I think Charbonnet is going to be more involved and Kenneth Walker is not going to fall into the end zone. And, you know, week one for Kenneth Walker is going to be part of his story. You know, 12 attempts, 64 yards didn't score. Well, that's good enough for running back 28 that week. Well, and if you look at the following week, I mean, he scored 17 fantasy points, but he scored two touchdowns. Like, Yeah, 17 for 43 on the ground. Yeah, two and a half yards of carry. He didn't have a great game. He had a very, very good fantasy game because he got a couple touchdowns. So it's just a matter of do you think the touchdowns are going to keep coming on on the regular? I'm sure he gets plenty of them this year, but it's not going to be to a game. And as of right now, would you trade for Bajon? Yes. I would much rather have Bajon. I mean, that trade offer will go through in leagues for sure. I think I would do that. I would try to extract a little bit more because Bijon had the down game.

But looking at five zone carries, no, that's the money. That's where we want our running backs getting attempts. Kenneth Walker has six total, three in week two, three in week three. Charms already has two. Look, I'd rather have six, but the point is Kenneth Walker is not the exclusive goal line running back. They're already... factoring in Charbonnet into those planes. And last year, I believe if my memory is correct, he was the only player in the NFL who had 100% of his teams inside the five already three weeks, and he does not. And he was very inefficient. He's been far more efficient on converting him this year. Yeah. He's a good player. This is not a, and it's really important that everyone listening understands us. This is not a saying Kenneth Walker's going to stink. You should trade him away. This is saying he's at.

probably a peak value that you can capitalize on if you squeeze everything out of that. That's the point is capitalize on peaks as opposed to just saying, oh, he's not going to be as good, so let me get rid of him. That's not what we're saying. Yeah, and he had nine touchdowns last year, but six of the nine came in three weeks where he scored two a week. So it is exactly about capitalizing on. the high performance of the most recent week trying to remove some of the emotion from the equation and looking at higher value options. So Jason, you have a provocative. Yeah. A provocative. I feel like you have made a decision here. I have made a decision. And my decision is if I have King Henry, Derek Henry, the Yeti, the unstoppable and movable force, the monstrous mountain of a man.

I am going to try to trade him away for something that I think is more safe. I think there's a lot of risk in Derek Henry right now, and he has not been terrible. His first two weeks was pretty good. This last week was a down week. But with his name recognition, his volume, the fact that he's still been okay this season so far, you're going to be able to have teams that are willing to pay. a premium for a premium player, for a player who was in the running for MVP over the last couple of years at the running back position. He's awesome. He's great. However, for the first time in his career post taking over, he has competition for touches. He has another competent running back on the team. He has someone stealing both carries and snaps away from him. He's obviously the oldest he's ever been and will continue to be so.

It's very astute. Thank you. This is a team that looks like they could be on the cusp of collapse. And I think that they will recover quickly as a franchise. I think they'll make a couple good transactions and pack it in if that happens. Right now they're going to be fighting for wins. Vrable's a good coach. It's a well-run franchise. But you look at the upcoming schedule. You say, okay, well, this week, Cincinnati. Who do you expect to win that game right now? The Tennessee Titans or the Cincinnati Bengals even with the hobbled Joe Burrow. I'm sure that the Cincinnati Bengals are the favored team. Derek Henry is going to do much better in wins than he does in losses. He also does better on the road than he does at home. And so this is a home loss. So it might not be a good week for Derek Henry.

You got Baltimore two weeks later. You got a buy week after that. And if at this point in the season coming out of the buy, this is a team that has not won a lot of games, I just worry that the future will be focused on. The risk is calamity. It's not just mediocrity. The risk to me in holding on to Derek Henry is that, and I don't think it's a guarantee. I don't think, oh, Derek Henry is done. But I see the path where Derek Henry could be done soon. And you don't want to be holding that bag, especially when it's a valuable bag you can get something for right now. So to me, that's the player I'm most scared of the future, the rest of the season. I think you could definitely find people that are willing to make the bet and the gamble and say, hey, he's going to be back to form. And there's going to be some people out there if you put him on the block that's probably interested in that. So if you believe that the odds are low, he comes back to form and this team competes, then.

I would rather have, so to talk about my trade-away and trade-for candidate, I would rather have Josh Jacobs than Derek Henry rest of season. I think most players out there, if that trade was offered, they would take Derek Henry over Josh Jacobs, who hasn't been good so far this year. So I think that would be easy, but you might be able to do even better. If you've got a good team, you've got some wins, and you want to take a shot at Sequin because maybe he misses this week and a manager is desperate or package him and trade up. There's a lot of...

You know, Derek Henry right now, and the reason why I'm saying trade him now is because he's got value. Like if he ends up having a bad couple of weeks, goes on by week, middle of the season, you're not going to be able to get anything for him. Mike, yours is depressing. Yeah, it's, look, any tradeaway candidate, it's depressing because, like, you're scared of King Henry that he's circling the whirlpool and he's about to head down. Swim strong, Derek. I want you to succeed. Yes, we do. My tradeaway candidate is Damien Pierce of the Houston Texans. He's currently the running back 29, and I still believe in the player of Damian Pierce, but I believe that he is in close to an impossible situation for his skill set. He has been, like, he had a good week this week. That's why I'm saying.

maybe you can find someone who's desperate for a running back and looks just at the total fantasy points and says, okay, I'll take on the risk of Damien Pierce that he's going to get better. But he's averaging only 2.38 yards after contact, which that is the same as AJ Dylan, who has been ferociously dunked upon throughout this season by you guys. He's averaging two and a half yards. What? He's averaging I love that guy. Two and a half yards per carry on the season. Again, I think it's the offensive line. Now, the story that you can weave is the offensive line is going to get healthier. And maybe that's something that you believe because they should. They got some guys on IR that are going to return. Maybe things do actually improve for Damien Pierce. But I think we're a long ways away from that happening. And it is not the...

The carrot that was dangled out for all of us for preseason was, holy crap, Damian Pierce might be truly a three-down workhorse in this offense. You're saying he's no Zach Moss. Yeah, I'm saying he's not getting 98% of snaps, Zach Moss style. They are going to, Devin Singletary is the two-minute drill guy. They're going to use Devin Singletary skill set when they're trying to catch up, which they will be trying to catch up in a lot of games. The upcoming schedule, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, the Saints, and then a buy week. And Pittsburgh's actually 29th against running backs. So if he fails again this week, I'm going to be real depressed, which you probably will. And that's the way I'm projecting it as well. So even if you're holding out hope for the offensive line to return, it might be five weeks from now before you're actually recouping some of the dividends from that gamble. And by then you're like,

then Damian Pierce's trade value could be absolutely cratered and you're just, you're all in. Your chips are all in on Damian Pierce. And if you're tempted to buy low on Damian Pierce on the other side of the logic train and you're saying, hey, I'm going to let him hit the ground, wait for that. He's got the single most depressing end of season playoff schedule I've ever seen in my life. He faces the week before going into the playoffs. He faces the Jets in New York. Perfect. Then he faces Tennessee. Great run defense. Cleveland. Great run defense. Tennessee. Same as the one before. Yeah, they have to. Wait, wait, wait. I hear what you're saying, though. Let's invert that. So you're telling me, Derek Henry is you're telling me the Yeti, Blank Houston. What am I doing? Trace for Derek Henry. You have made a terrible mistake. Retract. Get the jetty is. The Yetty is. The Yetty places.

Yet he is winning championships this week or this year. Houston, Blank Houston in the playoffs? Oh, that's rough stuff. Well, you make your own decision out there, Oakland. No, no, but between the Houston and Houston game, he does play Seattle at home. That's pretty nice. Going back to Damien Pierce, I think this is great to bring up, Mike, because especially bringing up what happened in preseason. This was a player. I was O-U-T. the whole offseason completely did not want Damien Pierce, didn't have any shares of him in best ball, saw the way that this could happen. And then preseason happened. And it was like, oh my gosh, they're actually going to use him as the two-minute drillback. As the as the passing as everything. They're going to use him as like a full-time workhorse back. And there's just not many of them. Well, they've, they've already shown that's not what they're doing. That isn't what they're going to do. And if he's not a.

work horseback, you're going to be disappointed a lot more than you're going to have great games. I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I don't think you can get anything for him after that three weeks. Well, not after this show. And I think you're at least going to have some volume from him. I mean, when you talk about talented player that's going to have volume, I don't think it's going to be a fun ride. I think you have to look at it like he's not going to win you weeks. I mean, he got into the end zone because someone got dragged down on the one. He's going to score every time. That happens. Yeah. So that'll be nice. But I mean, the yards per carry is terrible.

I'm somewhat happy with three targets a week every week. I mean, that is, that's going to help you a little bit. So much better than zero. But I mean, his fantasy production in the first two weeks was five points and four points. Yikes. I mean, and that was against, you know, Indianapolis and week two, Baltimore week one. His snap count did go up last week and they put up 37 points. And I'm encouraged that the offense could be better. But I'm with you, Mike. I've tried very hard in my brain to create the pathway for Damian Pierce, for it to get a lot better. But it's not easy to find. Yeah. And it's, I'm not disagreeing that it will, it could be difficult to find the trade partner to move on from Damien Pierce. But because you had the one spike week and looking at what's about to happen with the Houston Texans.

This is kind of you're either bailing out right now and maybe you're not getting a full return on the trade or you're fully committed to Damian Pierce because it's probably going to be rough three weeks. I want to put it to the test with names. Okay. Because you say you might not get the full return. Are you trading Damian Pierce for Isaiah Pacheco? I would rather have Pacheco, yes. Are you trading Damien Pierce for Najee Harris? Ooh. That is, that's super tough. I think I'm going to go nodgy. But, I mean, they're both in a very similar situation of their, it's, these, these are talented players. Breece Hall. And the offensive, oh, I'd go, Breeze Hall. I'd go for, I'd shoot for second half upside. Devon A-chan. Man, that sounds wrong. I'm still not over it. But yes, A-chan. That is, that is a.

That was a volatile move. The first name that came up when you brought this up in my mind was, okay, so would you, if you had A. Chan, would you trade for Pierce? Or if you had Pierce, would you trade for A. Chan? I know my answer, but I don't think things are going to be great over the next three weeks for Pierce. And they could be for A Chan. So I think I make that move. I would as well. Talk about a completely different type of player and a different. level of utilization. Pierce will have lots of opportunities to run for two yards. A. Chan may have minimal opportunities to run for 70. Right. And that is a tough thing because your lows may, I mean, it's hard to get lower than what Pierce gave you in week one and two. Okay. I've got one last question for us that, you know, we might have more questions from the listeners. But for me, I really want to know where you guys stand on this because I think it is.

a question that the answer will be so right or so wrong by the end of the season. And when you're trading running back for running back, someone wins and someone loses. Who would you rather have at this point going forward, Devon A-chan or Zach Moss? Oh, man. The 100% of Snap type of player who's dominating, but has a J-T problem possibly. So I want you guys to have to answer this on record. I think it's a very fair thing to bring up because it's if Jonathan Taylor comes back week five, I think he goes right into what Zach Moss is doing right now. Only is Jonathan Taylor who Zach Moss has been great, but Jonathan Taylor is a better player. There's a chance that maybe it's, you know, like only 70% of the snaps or something for Taylor. But.

The point is Zach Moss's value will crater if Taylor actually plays for the Colts. It's, oh, man, it's such a mess because it's not football stuff. Right. It is, I'm not in the locker room for the Colts. I'm not in the management. You don't know how real dug-in Jonathan Taylor is. Right. In the context of Erse. Yeah, and how dug-in Erse is. Yeah. And then over on the Miami side, what is the health of Jeff Wilson? When everybody is healthy. for them. And Ahmed, too. When everyone is healthy, all four players legit could take snaps for the Miami Dolphins. Like, that is something that could happen. For sure. Yeah, I mean, and this is. And that's a disaster for fantasy. Maybe not enough fantasy analysts say, I'm not sure. Yeah, I don't. I think it's okay to answer that one because I haven't traded my running back depth in part in one of my leagues because I know Zach Moss has a, it's like you look at the bottom of the milk carton and it says could expire.

next week. Now he might, you know what I mean? And then you're like, I'm going to take another sip of this and I'm going to keep it in my fridge and it's delicious right now. And it could be delicious all year, like legitimately. Let's play the hypothetical out. JTT does not come back. Let me just trade it to another team. I think that's more realistic. He does not play. Let me just throw this out because we do have a recent tweet from today from Dan Graziano. Colts running back, Jonathan Taylor, quote, still doesn't want to play for the Colts and the Colts, quote, still don't want to give him a long-term contract. So we are in the same exact spot we were with Jonathan Taylor, but someone has to leverage, someone does not. If Zach Moss is alone and Jonathan Taylor does not return to play with that uniform on. He's a great. What rest of season? Top 15 running back. I think he's the running back from here on out.

I would say the running back 18. I think. And then so you have to make that call because if that's the case, he's better than H.N. He's a better player. He's going to have a better outcome than H.N. if there's no Jonathan Taylor, I think. Yeah. If there's no Jonathan Taylor, you get a 100% snap player who's involved in the past. It's very difficult to follow up. Follow. Graziano says it would not surprise me if his first game of the season was in a different uniform. And guess who is the most interested? That's what's so funny. It was the Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins. Oh, I think they're still very interested. But although the Moster has been great, but they've dealt with injuries. Like Ahmed's been hurt. Jeff Wilson's been hurt. Mostard always gets hurt. A. Chan's been hurt. I think it would be difficult for the Miami Dolphins after having what happened this last week. I think it would be difficult for them to trade.

for Jonathan Taylor to give up draft capital and a contract. I disagree. Now, here's the thing. I'm saying that right now, like this week. If something happens where Jonathan Taylor continues to play chicken with the Colts and he's just waiting there for another injury around the league and A. Chan goes down or Moster goes down. Obviously, I think they're going to grab them. Crazy situation. Yeah, the A. Chan is the, that is a scratchers. I mean, you. pretty decent odds on it, but you just don't know. A. Chan could be unstartable. And A.N. could be a league winner. Yeah. That is a rare combination in a player. Let's do the league winner thing, A. Chan. Let's go, baby. Thursday night breakdown. I'm looking forward to this game. The Detroit Lions, two and one. Taking on the Green Bay Packers, they have to go to Lambo and do it. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Detroit minus one and a half. That is.

To me, that is a profound line. The over-under is 46. Both teams are two and one, which is another reason I'm surprised that the Lions are road favorites here. You know, Lambo is a tough place to play, and the winner takes control of the division. And it looks like the Packers are going to be healthy. I think as of this moment, the expectation is that both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones will be available. Obviously, it's still a little too early to know that definitively, but that's what's been reported. What's interesting is that Jordan Love has had a really fantasy relevant, productive amalgamation of a season. And I think this is really, really good for the Jordan Love fantasy believer because the first three weeks he produced because he has produced at a higher than sustainable touchdown rate. So he's throwing touchdowns at a really high percentage relative to his throws. I think he's throwing the most uncatchable passes.