Starts of the Week + Week 10 Breakdown, Steel Underpants - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/10

On today's episode, a never not working where we break down, touchdown regression, go through all the news, a whole bunch of matchups and the boom boom kicker of the week. A lot is revealed and finally explained for all of those who are confused out there like yours truly. Subscribe to this channel, like the video, and enjoy. The fantasy footballer studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. To the fantasy footballers podcast with your host. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. It's about time. Lot of some rain. Welcome, one and all. Thursday, November 10th, the fantasy footballers podcast. Mike, the fantasy hip man, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Sometimes you just got to find some filler words.

Lot of some is. Is that what you said? That is. I was just moving on because I didn't, I couldn't distinguish the words. Lot of some rain. Oh, so you were. Yeah, there's a lot of some. Lots of some rain, which is different than a little bit rain, which we do get from time to time. It will not be a little bit rain tonight from what I am seen. This will be a lot of some of it. This will be lots of some rain. Dr. Seuss on the other side, taking care of business. We have the fantasy forecast today. The forecast is lots of some rain. News and notes, never not working. Starts of the week in the boom boom kicker. Jason, consecutive days with the pickleball t-shirt. Oh, yeah. Maybe I can't. I have pickleball. Pickle ball continues to ascend. Oh, man. The haters are starting to form their groups, their councils. They're the pickle haters? Oh, yeah. There's only one type of pickle hater. Tennis players? Tennis players.

The rest love it. Yeah. To be fair, there are tennis players who also love pickleball. Yes, that's true. They convert and then they make money on the pickleball side. And they're way better than us. Yeah. That's fair. That's true. What are we got going on today? We have a lot going on today. We have injury updates. I already saw that Brandon Cook's decided to practice. The wrist is feeling better. So that's good, right? That is good. Yeah, I get back to disappointing your fantasy roster. Talked on the party room last night that I think he's a decent trade for target, just because he's a borderline free pickup. I think you can scoop him up for managers for very little. He's done nothing. He hasn't been playing. He's had basically one good week on the season, but I still believe that he is a talented wide receiver who has a good target share and has brighter days ahead. I mean, you're picking up guys off of waivers that.

aren't nearly that good. Yeah, I would have Brandon Cooks on my roster over Donovan People's Jones. Yeah, exactly. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballer. Subscribe, click that bell. Catch Mike on Sunday live each and every week, helping you out right before the games kick off. Twitter at the FFBallers. You can follow us over there. At Andy Holloway at Jason FFL at FFHitman. If you want to follow us individually. We are very verified. We're, yeah, verified plus. It is our accounts. Right. At least for now. Yeah. Mike has been following the world of Twitter, as we all have. It's a good time. Yeah, I mean, we'll see what happens over there. Join thefoot.com is our fantasy football community. Let's move on. Never not working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart.

All right. Well, this week we wanted to take a look at calling our shot on some touchdowns coming the way for players who haven't been scoring touchdowns. We just recently talked about Joe Mixen. That was your call, Andy. Prior to that, it was Alvin Camero. These players that, look, they're getting the ball a lot. They are being productive. They're not scoring touchdowns. That's not common. I mean, we know Jacobi Myers. like set the world record for not scoring touchdowns last year, but he's the outlier. Colquamette was competing with him, trying to beat him. There is a reason that, you know, the NFL averages exist because it's just what happens on average. So these players are going to return to the NFL average, if not their own outstanding personal average. So we wanted to take a look at.

running backs and wide receivers and see maybe these are good trade four targets or players you can have a little bit more confidence in. So running backs, the league average for touchdowns is every 29.4 opportunities. That is how often the average NFL running back scores a touchdown. And we took a look at some guys who, minimum, you know, 10 carries a game, 10 opportunities a game that are over 50 opportunities a game right now. without scoring a touchdown. Some of these guys are way higher, and I'm going to start at the top. 132 opportunities per touchdown for Jonathan Taylor, who only has one touchdown on the season. We've talked about the disappointment, the injury, the fact that he hasn't been on the field. And we've talked about, well, he was disappointing when he was on the field. You want to know why? Because he just wasn't scoring touchdowns.

And the thing is about the NFL average is that's for good offenses, for bad offenses. This isn't like, well, the Colts offense isn't going to be good. So he's not going to score any touchdowns whatsoever. He's going to return and score touchdowns. I think, you know, I've been the pro Jonathan Taylor rest of season guy. Maybe it'll still take a couple weeks, but I do think he returns. A couple other names. that are good. We mentioned one of these as a trade four target yesterday, James Connor. He led the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns last year. He has 85 opportunities per touchdown so far this year. That is a crazy outlier, not only for all running backs, but specifically for a player like James Connor, who is good at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Two other names.

Devin Singletary, this one's a little bit more scary because you have Naim Hines there, you have Josh Allen who could be the touchdown vulture, but you want to remember that last year when he was awesome down the stretch, why was it? He was scoring touchdowns. It's not outlandish to think that the bill's running back can't score touchdowns. He is right now 114 opportunities per total. touchdowns and um i don't know if you saw this yesterday paul uh himbo on twitter posted every bill's offensive touchdown this year oh yes and josh allen was responsible for 23 of the 25 via pass or rush there was one cook james cook rushing touchdown and one mackenzie rushing touchdown otherwise josh allen every other touchdown was his fault

And I think there's a good chance. He is excellent, yeah. That he might not play this week. He will be responsible for zero touchdowns when he does not play. That is what my math is showing me. Good work. Thank you. David Montgomery, the last one. He only has two carries inside the five this year. But David Montgomery, great matchups coming up. Yeah. 61 opportunities per touchdown right now. So positive regression is coming for those players. That wide receiver. wide receivers have average, basically a touchdown every 186 receiving yards or 22 targets. And there's a couple of guys. Tyree Kill and Justin Jefferson, they're underperforming. Like, they're awesome. I mean, Tyree Kill is literally on pace to break the single season receiving record, but he only has three receiving touchdowns. That's not going to be how his season finishes. There's nothing on the field that says he should.

You know, he should have three more touchdowns if he was just playing at the NFL average. I feel like he's just got too many yards. He's just like, slow down. Yeah. Get those averages back. Yeah, we got to get Jalen Wattle the touchdown. Why don't you take a break here? Yeah, Wattle has six of them. So I think even brighter days, it seems impossible, but even brighter days are ahead for Terry Kilt and Justin Jefferson. But the two wide receivers you might want to target to actually look at bringing them on board. Because touchdowns are coming their way. One is Deontay Johnson. He has 76 total targets right now. No touchdown. Now, obviously he's not being used down the field. And he's got a rookie quarterback. Yeah, they're not sustaining drives. They're not scoring a lot of points. So my expectation for him would be that this year he is, he would be under the NFL average. But he's got 76 total targets. It's 22.

targets on average per touchdown he's at 76 touchdowns will come his way and the one that i've i've been talking about probably the most and trying to lift you up uh andy because i know you traded for him and he's been a little bit disappointing but chris godwin right now is 9.3 targets per game 65 total targets and he has not had a touchdown now he is not finishing this season with no touchdowns let's say he finishes the season with a poor touchdown rate, because right now he's being used like a Jarvis Landry, right? Real short passes. He gets a four touchdown season. Ho-hum, that stinks. If he finishes the season with four touchdowns, that means they're all the rest of the season. Like, they're going- Seven, nine, seven, five. That's what his touchdown total were the past four years. Yeah. And if he finishes with four, that means he's got four touchdowns in-

only the second half of the season. He's going to positively regress towards the NFL average. Those are players that I would personally be targeting for touchdown upside. The last thing I just want to throw in here is just to understanding or return to positive regression, as we say on here, or just a return to the mean, however you phrase it, it doesn't mean they have backlogged. or stored a whole bunch of touchdowns. They have to get them in in these next few weeks or they break the law. Yeah, like Joe Mixen just bottled up his touchdowns and unleashed them in one game. It simply means they should return to the average of how often they score in their career, which means that moving forward, the touchdowns should be much higher than what we've seen. And that's the essence of averages over multiple years anyways. Like you don't, it's not like, you know,

At this point in time, we look at Alva Camara's career and we say he scores this many touchdowns per year, but he also had a six touchdown game, you know, on Christmas or whatever it was a couple of years ago. You know, Godwin's had multi-touchdown games before. Sometimes they come in bunches. Sometimes they come every week. It's just an average of, you know, these players are kind of bucking their normal trend. It's an anomaly. So I think the biggest lesson for me on Godwin was like, Don't overreact to how you feel about this player simply on the basis of how the touchdowns are making you feel. Yesterday, I literally almost overreacted on Godwin. I sent out three trade offers, and I was going to overpay to go pick up a Hopkins in a Dynasty League instead of a Godwin for a playoff run and to go pick up a day. And then I literally just clicked withdraw on all three offers after I got done with it going, you know, these players aren't different.

They're the same, but God was just not scoring touchdown, so I feel horrible. Yeah, what it is is it's about current today value. The value of these players that we mentioned, Chris Godwin, Deontay Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, James Connor, they are undervalued because they have not had the least predictable statistic happening to go their way. We talk about it in the offseason a lot. Touchdowns aren't any sticky stat. You have players like Dalvin Cook who goes from 20 touchdowns one year to six touchdowns the next year. Not a not a worst player the next year. Exactly right. There's a lot that has to go right to get the touchdown. So target the players who are underperforming in that metric because their values low right now. And it shouldn't be. All right. That was never not working. You can get up to 100% standard of protection that is never not working.

with head and shoulders scalp shield technology available at walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo and see the difference. News and notes from around the league presented by USAA Insurance. We'll jump into the news here, try to get through it quickly because we have a lot to talk about with the forecast that starts of the week. Darren Waller, limited, has not played in week five. Since week five. Yeah, since week five. Waller has basically come out and said what we know and have seen evidence in. like Keenan Allen situation, you have to be 100 with the hamstring before you go out and try the hamstring out. Otherwise, you go back to square one. And he kind of said that and that it's not smart to play with a risk to your hamstring. So his situation, he seems to be limited in practice, getting out there, getting reps every week, and then not playing. You can't count on him. You need to make other arrangements. And then when you get him back, maybe have some confidence that he is back and healthy.

That's all it's saying to me is getting in a bunch of limited practices but not playing. It can be very frustrating for fantasy football. But if he's at least getting the limited ones in, when he goes, I would put him back in and feel confident that you're not as likely to get the reaggravation. You should get Darren Waller back. Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury on the other side of the football in that game. Anthony Stafford in the Concussion Protocol. So there's some questions around these two players. Pick up the Arizona defense. Yeah, right now I feel as though, you know, I think Kyler will be out there. And I think that Stafford's much more of a question with the way a concussion protocols have worked. The fact he was a later edition that we didn't know about. Yeah, they added him to the concussion protocol on Tuesday. We didn't find out about it until Wednesday. But when you're added that.

time period, I think it's unlikely that Matthew Stafford is going to play. Tyler Higby was my start of the week this morning. But based on this news, I still think you can play him with Wolford, but certainly not a must-start player if Matthew Stafford is not playing. That line is down to 41. So Vegas generally, they make their bets, just like they're doing in the Buffalo game because Josh Allen officially did not practice. Matthew Betts, our injury expert, would be surprised if he played. And we'll talk about that matchup later today, so we don't need to get into it all now. But a tear is streaming down my face. Sure. Cardinals talked about those situations. Damian Pierce added to the injury report.

with a chest and shoulder injury. These two pieces of news are really ironic. The Damian Pierce added to the injury report. Colts running back John of the Taylor returned to a limited practice Wednesday. Yesterday we were talking about the safety of Damian Pierce and the risk of the John of the Taylor injuries. Is this our fault? I think this is your fault. I just want to be clear. I didn't do anything. Are you the Fancy Reaper, Mike? No. I'm not the Fancy Reaper. No. There is no safety in football. That's what we should. That's what we should have led with. I see Brooks. You're nodding over there. Everybody's hurt, right? Yeah. Everybody's hurt all the time. It's a rough sport. Keenan Allen, day to day. Oh, did not participate in practice Wednesday. Zeke took some snaps and team drills. Wasn't ready to say he'd be good to go. Says he needs more reps. I think there's a shot he sits. Yeah, his quote. Oh, that'd be soft.

His quote seemed pretty soft. If he hears this, he's playing. He, you know, he plants my words. Those are Zieg words. To play deep into the playoff. So he's focused on the long game. Well, he has the luxury. I mean, the team has the luxury of having him focused on the long game. The thought process was you're going to take the week off so that you get the buy week two total weeks and Zieg will be back ready to go. Now it seems that's up for debate. And that's a Green Bay game. And then Traylen Burke's return to practice from injured reserve. I still think it's going to be tough for him to contribute to your fantasy team just with the way the offense was, but maybe not. Especially if it's Malik Willis. Right, which we don't know yet. That was today's news and notes brought to you by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Fantasy forecast. All righty. Let's do it. Seattle.

Six and three, taking on the four and five Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bonjourno. Oh, in Germany. Thank you. In Munich, Germany. Take a moment to let that sink in. Six and three, Seattle, four and five, Tampa. I don't know what the money line would have been or the betting line on those two records at this point in the season. Oh, you would have. But you'd been a rich man. Plus like 50,000. The Drafking Sportsbook line, though, has Tampa Bay minus three in this game. The overrunners 44 and a half. It is in Munich, Germany, technically Tampa's the home team, whatever. I just, you know, Seattle is a, they're a machine. And if you wanted to know whether they were a machine, swapping out a potential Hall of Fame quarterback for Gino Smith and doing the same things shows you how much of a machine they are. Kenneth Walker, where's defenses down?

The Seattle draft class. Look, I don't want to give Seattle any credit for anything. No, of course not. I'm a cardinal fan. Look at your hat. I want them to be at the basement. That would be my goal. 12th man, I have no respect for you. Thank you. Well said. However, six and three is so impressive. Yes. The draft class, amazing. Just home runs. Home runs. The most starts of any. draft class in football, both sides of the ball, making a huge difference, and they deserve credit. They do. They've been incredible. And they get the Broncos picks. I mean, oh my gosh. If you want to fix your franchise in one trade, I mean, shipping off the salary of Russell Wilson, getting the draft picks and doing what they did with them, Bravo. So on that side of the ball, though, in this game against Tampa,

Tampa's ninth against the running back position, but that doesn't cause you to sit Kenneth Walker because you can't. Kenneth Walker's too good. What about DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? Are they both in your lineup? Yeah, they're both in. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett. They've been really, really solid on the season. Gino Smith throwing two touchdowns, the majority of his games, and they're going their way. So I think both those players have to be in lineups. All right. Well, is Gino Smith somebody that is in your streaming? consideration this week. They are not favored. 20 point implied point total. He's been pretty good. QB8 on the year. It's, I think he's a fine play. The question is, is Gino Smith with the level of play that we've seen from him? We had, you had three kind of down games, Arizona, when they were at home, then the chargers and then the Giants. But then a bounce back for him this past week against Arizona. Is Gino?

For you guys still a streaming guy or is he like if you're in a 14 team or you're just, you're just playing him? A 14 team or sure. In a 12 team. In a normal league, I still view Gino as a as a streamer. You know, Dax and, you know, Herbert is a real question right now without any weapons to throw the ball to. So if you're talking to Herbert and a bad matchup without those weapons, maybe I would take Gino ahead of him. Okay. But I'm. I'm not just saying Gino is an automatic start. He has not been an every week great play for fantasy. We just know that he actually does have upside. He can be good. He was very good this last week. In this matchup where I think he should need to throw the ball more, not necessarily because the Buccaneers are going to score a ton of points, but because they've got a very good run d. And, you know, this isn't one where you'd project just a smash.

200 yards and two touchdowns for Kenneth Walker. They're going to need to throw the ball with D.K. McCaff and Tyler Lockett to win this game. I do believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win this ball game. I didn't even know what the line was. I'm surprised it's Tampa minus three, but... Well, they're the home team. In Munich, Germany, yes. Get that bump. Yeah, right. But Tom Brady, you know, it's been a rough ride of late. They rallied. I think that meant a lot to this offense figuring things out at the end of that game. But Brady passing touchdowns over the last five weeks, one, one zero one. You want to talk about the Chris Godwin issue as part of it, right? And his one touchdown went to Kate Otten. So, you know, Mike Evans, I don't think he scored a touchdown since week five. Chris Godwin, he hasn't scored a touchdown all year. And then.

you know, Kate Otten, he's running routes and he's participating in this offense. Are all three of those players in your lineup? Oh, the wide receivers, of course. Kate Otten was lined up to be my start of the week. The second most routes run among tight ends over the last month. Seattle dead last against the tight end position. But Cameron Brate returned to full practice yesterday. So I don't know, I don't know that you can. play Kate Otten with full confidence. If Cameron Brayette still misses, which is possible with the injury that he had, he could be practicing in full and still not play. Then Kedon would be a great streamer. If Brate is active, I'm going to be, I would be nervous to do it. Leonard Fournett, we talked about trade candidates yesterday at length. We talked about Fournette at length. Still playing him. Okay. And then would you take any chances with Rashad White in this game? Seattle's defense 22nd against the running back position.

A lot of rumors coming out of the buy that he may get more work, kind of like the Jalen Warren situation. I'm not looking for the glory shot in getting his first game of relevance right. I think that you are waiting for a Leonard-Fornet injury with Rashad White, and you're just seeing him get more and more involved, more comfortable and competent in the offense for if that should happen, more confidence to just throw him in as a top weekly play. All right, quick break and back with the Vikings bills. All right, we are back with the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo bill. You know, sometimes things get typed in the chat. I mean, I can't contain the laughter. Nothing Jason said was humorous. So, Jason, that was not about you. I was confused.

I apologize for breaking. That was entirely... Be professional over there, man. That was due to reading some secret stuff inside of the company slack. The Minnesota Vikings are 7 and 1. They take on the Buffalo Bills at 6 and 2. One has to be a little disappointed that we may not have Josh Allen in this game because... You know, it's a matchup of heavyweights right now. The Draft King Sportsbook line still has Buffalo minus three and a half. The overender is 43 and a half. I can't believe the Vikings. That's an updated line, Kyle. Yeah, that's updated. It opened at 49.5 at Buffalo minus six and a half. So hedging right now, the sports books considering the fact that Josh Allen might not be out there. Case Keenham is the backup. Oh, man. We get Keenham and Stefan Diggs.

Yeah, and you get Keenham, yeah, right. His old team. The game is in Buffalo. Keenham is a competent quarterback. So when you look at this game, let's say you said today Case Keenom is playing no matter what. I'd still be taking Buffalo. Like I still think Buffalo wins the ball game. Their defense is extraordinary. They're at home. We saw the Minnesota Vikings offense have trouble last week against Washington. And so it's a harsh environment. Tough matchup. Think you can still have confidence in Stefan Diggs, of course, regardless of the quarterback situation. But once you move beyond your main target in the wide receiver room, that's where I think not having Josh Allen is going to really put questions into your mind about, you know, Gabe Davis, how risky. He's already a risky start at times with Josh Allen. But you have the ceiling is so high with Josh Allen on one of his good games that you play him.

In this matchup, it seems a lot riskier with Case Keenom if he's the quarterback. Yeah, it certainly does. I mean, if you're talking about a Donovan People's Jones level, start sure, I might be willing to, but I'm not, you know, I love Gabe Davis. I love having him in my lineup when I've got Josh Allen there because at any time you can have an 80-yard touchdown. If Josh Allen does not play, I am looking to absolutely bench Gabe Davis if I can. You'd be playing Darnel Mooney. Yeah, absolutely. Cortland Sutton? I would. I would. Mike Wood is the best answer to a question. Zay Jones against Kansas City. Kansas City is, yeah. Yeah, I would play Zade. I think he is the best barometer here because no one's ever excited. He's always on the way for water. To play Zay Jones. Jay Jones lives on the way or way. But I would play Zay Jones over Gabe Davis if Josh Allen does not play.

That'd be a funny rule in a league. Like certain players are tagged as you can only sign them, play them and drop them. Yeah, Sunday morning pickups only. Only. And you cannot have them on your roster once Wednesday comes around. Right. That is Zay Jones, though. I mean, everybody grabbed. He is the spot start. If you have a nickname for Zay Jones, it's spot start. Yeah. The old spot start. Yeah. Devin Singletary, 74% of snaps last week. Not that we expected Naeem Hines to get. a ton of opportunity yet on the new team. He was traded midweek. I don't expect Singletary's snap count to stay at 74%. Not over the season, though. With Naim Hines, an intentional addition by this roster. But I think Singletary is still okay to play in this game, especially if they need to depend on the run game more. Dustin Knox, not messing around. Not without Josh Allen. Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson. Yep. T.J. Hawkinson. Very impressive in week one with Minnesota, nine for 70.