Early RB Rankings Part 2 + Champion Challenge - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/14

then you disrespect Joe Mixon by putting him at 11. Oh, the Twitter was upset? Twitter was upset when I posted my first rankings a while back and Mixon wasn't number one or something. And then they were mad when these came out too. Love Joe Mixon. I think we talked about all the reasons why it might not be a top three, four finish. But let's start it maybe the least desirable player, but shouldn't be.

in the top 12. I'm all about it. Leonard Fornett of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I mean, when a player has kind of been put out to pasture like Leonard Fornett had been, and then they resurface, it is very strange for the long-term confidence in a player. He's 27 years old. Mike, you have him at 9. Jason has him at 10. I've got him at 13. But from weeks 4 through 15 last year, he was the RB3.

He was on pace for 349 opportunities, including a mind-blowing 88 receptions with Tom Brady and Tampa. They brought him back. They liked what they got last year. Running it back. And Ronald Jones is gone. So not that he was a, clearly was not a huge threat to the workload this past season. But looking at the depths right now, I mean, you have Kishon Vaughn. You have, is, is Geo back?

Is Giovanni Bernard? He's back. Okay. So Giovanni Bernard. Was he ever there, Kyle? Did you ever confirm that? That's a fair question to start with. His mustache was. Okay. But like Brady and the Bucks are going to be among the league leaders in points. And Leonard Fornett is used as a three-down running back. There's no reason to think he won't be used that way yet again. Now, the red flags for Fournette for me, he's 27 years old. He's had, you know,

He had some heavy usage in Jacksonville. So that's the red flag is does he start to wear down because of the age and all of the use? But if he holds up, the workload and the scoring opportunity is so outrageous. He was averaging five receptions per game. That's wild stuff. And it's not the first time he's done that. You don't think of Leonard Fournett as a pass catching running back. And yet we've had multiple seasons where he just...

is an absolute sponge for these targets. It's hard to really pick apart Leonard Fournett as a lower-end running back one. He really should be safe. Right. That's the truth of Leonard Fornett. He should be really safe from a volume perspective. He has missed three games each of the last two seasons. Speaking to the durability factor, you've got a new head coach and Todd Bowles now, but the same offensive system. So range of outcomes for Fournette.

I really doubt that he's going to finish outside the top 20. I think that that is a very low probability, a situation. I mean, I guess you could say another red flag is the touchdown, like, while they're going to score a lot and he has chances for receiving touchdowns and things, but Tom Brady throws a lot near the goal line. So you will lose some opportunities for how great Fournet was. It was only the eight rushing touchdowns, but that number can.

easily go up and just have a, you know, Fournett is one of these players when you're, when you're planting the flag early on these early round running backs, could, could Fournett end the season with 14 plus touchdowns on the years? Yes, easily. And absolutely. Easily. So that's one of the questions and scenarios you need to play out for these guys. And Fournette can easily hit that number. No, they like him. He obviously has the trust of the goat himself. So.

Number 12 after Leonard Fournette, DeAndre Swift. 23 years old, I have him at 8. Mike, you're at 16. Yeah, he's so difficult. This is a big gap. I mean, that is Jason at 11. Is this as simple as you're not a alliance fan, right? So you don't, the prospect of guaranteed high value touches for DeAndre Swift goes down. Is that in the mix for you at least? Yes, there is that. I mean, he's like,

We're two years into his career. On the field, he is truly an elite difference maker of, you know, rookie season, 46 receptions this past year, 62, has only played 13 games each of the, each of his two years. And that, like, that's a concern to me for DeAndre Swift. Not that I'm not calling him injury prone, but feeling like you can lock in, well, this guy.

just the way he takes damage to his body. He's going to miss a handful of games. But the receptions are just so outrageous. Where paint the picture for DeAndre Swift of can he easily hit the 14 touchdown mark? It's not easy. Can he? Yes. But is it as easy as someone like Leonard Fournett? No, not to me. But he covers that. Like he musks up.

with the receptions of 78 targets this past year in 13 games. That's an outrageous number of over the last decade, running backs with 100 plus receptions and 15 plus touchdowns in their first two years. The list is heavy hitters. It's Saquan, McCaffrey, Camara, David Johnson, Devante Freeman, Levium Bell, and now D'Andre Swift. So I am certainly on...

The others, probably the wrong side of the bet. But I just, I like the other running backs more than DeAndre Swift. From weeks, from 1 through 11, he was the RB 7. I do think that the kind of ideal season for him, it does mimic the McCaffrey 2018 season where he scores seven times on the ground, six times through the air. So you combine for double digit touchdowns. But it's, it's those reception totals in staying healthy. I mean, you give him another four.

games last year, and you're going to be, what, in the 80 reception range? I mean, that is an insane number for a running back. Yeah. So there's no reason, in my opinion, there's the odds of him coming out. He has the capability of giving you an Echler season. He has the capability of giving you that CMC season from 2018. Is it probable on the Lions? Probably not. Yeah, probably not. And you still have, and you have Jamal Williams who.

He's still around, too. Like, his snap totals always look low, but then you'll see the opportunity share. And it's, I mean, he's getting 10 plus opportunities every week. Who's more likely to be top five? DeAndre Swift or Leonard Fournette? Leonard Fournette. See, I think it's Swift. Yeah. Betting on the young guy. I get it. You're betting on the touchdowns. I'm betting on the youth. 13 is Aaron Jones. I already teased this earlier. He's going to be one of the most.

Polarizing players this off season. He was on the field for 15 games, 171 carries, 52 receptions. Finishes the RB 12 last year. We have my 13. You and Jason have a 13. I have him at 12. They lose Devante Adams and his 4,000 targets. Right. And so naturally... That's a little... That's low.

Sorry, I didn't want to be hyperbolic. Yeah, but you're in hyperbolic in the wrong direction. Right. But Aaron Jones has this history for fantasy football where even if it's not been steady, three straight years is an RB1, right? So that means our early rankings already have them outside of his last three seasons. He was the number two overall running back in 2019, number five in 2020, dropped to 12 last year. But a lot of that is just rushing touchdowns went way down.

But do they stay there with AJ Dillon's involvement in the offense? And does he do enough in the passing game to propel him up into the top 12? And that's kind of the debate. The big question is the receiving. For the past three years, Devante Adams, when he's on the field, he is seeing a 30 plus percent target share, which is, that's outrageous. And.

I mean, Kyle, I can throw to you as well, but we have, when researching vacated targets, that's something that you often look for. Okay, player X has gone from this team. Now who's going to fill in the target vacuum? And quite frequently, we see that vacuum actually is filled with extra targets to the running back. No one on this team can replace Devante Adams. No one in the draft can replace.

Devante Adams, even if they bring in a really high profile rookie in the first round. They're not getting that target. What's that rookie going to see? 20 18% of the targets. That's where Aaron Jones can become an absolute draft A value is if he is the player who fills the target vacuum void. Now, it could be split with both running backs. A.J. Dillon does it like, just like Leonard Fournette, you don't.

You don't think of him as a pass catching running back, but he was actually really, really solid in the work that he was given. I'll try and pull up the targets, but the difference between targets and receptions, he was catching everything. And then he was making things happen, like really big plays. And A.J. Dillon just keeps increasing the work. I think that's the biggest concern for people out there is that the timeshare is shrinking.

Or I should say, you know, A.J. Dillon's role in the time share is increasing. Yeah. Now, so the targets, sorry. So one guy's is shrinking. The other guys is getting bigger. Is that what you're saying? Yeah. Do I got you? That sounded real weird. But, but yeah. One guy's shrinking. One guy's getting bigger. 37 targets, 34 receptions. Like, that's a really high catch percentage for a guy that.

is not thought of as a past catching specialist. There are quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers, who trust goes a long way on what kind of target volume you're going to get. There's a reason why in the playoffs, we made fun of the box score in the playoff game against San Francisco. Everything went to Devante Adams and who else? Aaron Jones. Those were the two players that dominated the entire target share on that team. To me, this would be like the New England Patriots.

with James White and Tom Brady, and they lose Devante Adams off that roster. James White's going to get those numbers and that trust. Right. It's going to rise because a rookie can't step in and earn that trust overnight. And like you said, maybe they get 18%. So I think Aaron Jones actually has the potential to vault up into a safer running back than we think he is. Because he's been ping ponging between, you know, high bust rate, right?

31% of the time in 2019, then he was steady, no busts in 2020, 27% last year. Is it an accomplishment to finish at RB12 with only 171 carries? I think it is. So you're not counting on him to take a bunch of the rushing work away from AJ Dillon. You're counting on him being part of the fix, part of the Devante Adams replacement project. And it was the lowest rushing touchdown total since his rookie season. I think.

I don't know if I stand alone on that, but I think Aaron Jones could be a real steal in fantasy drafts because I don't think anybody wants to take him over some of the more attractive players out there. Yeah. The younger players. I agree. His current best ball ADP is the RB15. So that speaks to that fact. It's the fourth round pick. That's wild. There's a ho-hum factor. You know how you kind of felt about Dalvin Cook? Mm-hmm.

I think that's how people are feeling about Aaron Jones. They've been there, they've done that, they want to try something new. All right, we'll try discussing Nick Chub momentarily after a quick break. No matter what triumphs are in store this season, legendary game days start with a Miller Light. Miller Light is a true American Pilsner and the original light beer brewed since 1975, made with simple ingredients including malted barley for rich...

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