Bounce Back Players + Fantasy Freedom

And if this team gets off to a very bad start from a wins and losses perspective, you could end up in a quarterback situation through the season where now it's like people are calling for the backup and wanting to move on from Dalton. And if something like that happens, that's another risk for AJ Green. That's that is that a fair worry? I think it's a, it's definitely a wrinkle in the in the argument that this is a guaranteed bounceback. I mean, you have.

You have to believe that Zach Taylor is going to be given enough leash with this offense and quarterback situation. They weren't going to move on from Andy Dalton for the cap hit that that would have represented. You know, the other thing that's been brought up a lot is the contract situation because Agent Green is not under contract next year. If he's not extended, you know, they could franchise tag him. It would be $18 million for next year. His base salary this year is 12. He doesn't see himself going anywhere else, but you've brought that up in shows past. Okay, so I've got a question.

for you guys, a fun little game here. Okay. All right. If you had to pick, you have to pick one of these two. Andy Dalton finishes as a top 10 quarterback or Andy Dalton finishes outside of the top 27 quarterbacks. What are the highest odds? Which one would you believe happens? Because I would believe he would be top 10. I mean, out of those. Out of those two options. The two extreme options. Yeah, I don't think he's.

I don't think he'll be a bottom five. I think the entire probability that he escapes the bottom five. That's unanimous for me. I mean, on paper, why the number 27? Dude, the tummy. The tummy is the number 27. I should have got top 10, bottom 10. The tummy's affecting the mind for sure. But what you were just about to say. No status update. You just pulled the number 27? Dude, I'm in a special place right now. This show's going to be awesome. Look, but what you were about to say is true. On paper.

he has a great receiving court with A.J. Green, hopefully John Ross could be something. Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixin, G. O'Bernard. We're so fatigued of the Andy Dalton experience because he's had years inside that top 10. He's had an MVP caliber season where he spent the first 13 games performing for fantasy owners. Maybe it's not like Kyler in Arizona with Kingsbury, but you do have a...

a rejuvenation happening in Cincinnati and weapons. You want to talk fatigue. Even Andy Dalton is fatigued of being Andy Dalton. He looks in the mirror every morning. He goes, ugh, not again. Still Andy Dalton. Still the red hair. So rude. I wasn't even going red hair. I was going, I don't want to be Andy Dalton anymore. You mean who I was for Halloween? Yes. Spot on. Actually, I, what? I thought Andy Dalton was in on Halloween. Oh.

I thought you took the day off. Acting. Acting. All right, Mike, kick it off with your bounce back player. Sure. I'll talk about this player until I'm blue in the face all off season. This is, who knows, you might end up being one of my guys, but Devonta Freeman. Do not forget. Do not be put off of what has happened. Last year was extremely disappointing because of the injury.

Here's what's happening with Devonta Freeman. You're paying a third round price for an absolute touchdown machine through 2015 and 2017. We have 43 healthy games. 29 rushing touchdowns in that time. He's on one of the highest powered offenses in the league. And he's, Dan Quinn has been, he's been with Devonta Freeman the whole time. And over the past five years, here's where Dan Quinn,

His lead team, now I know he's not the offensive mind, but it's still his team. He's leading the ship. He's the captain. Here's where the Falcons have finished in offensive yards. 7th, 2nd, 8th, and 6th under Dan Quinn. That's a really good team. Matt Ryan is an absolute upper echelon quarterback. And in that time, Devonta Freeman, 1,011, 1,011. He was basically on pace for 1,000 years, 2 years ago.

A thousand years. Incredible. What do they call it? An Eon? They say father time is undefeated. He laughs at his face. Not too DeVant to Freeman. I get a thousand years. And in those times, I mean, running back one, running back six, running back 13. It's the fantasy burns from last year combined with the end of two years ago. We're talking this is second degree burns.

from Devante Freeman, which is causing him to drop to the third round, somehow being drafted as the running back 17 on fantasy football calculator. That is behind Leonard Fernette. Somehow the general public, they are more forgiving to Leonard for net than Devonta Freeman, who was a known pass-catching running back and on an excellent offense and not a Nick Folesled Jaguars. That's a very interesting comp, right? Because I think you've got a few more years of.

ups and downs with Devante Freeman. Yeah. No, you won. Well, no, he's been injured for more. He's been injured during portions of more than one season. And in that season, he was the running back 13th. I think, look, I don't disagree with it. Last year, Atlanta was 30th in the NFL in rushing attempts, 27th in total yards, but the rushing offense was like 13th in yards per attempt. They could run the ball. They didn't run the ball. They didn't trust Heaven Coleman, and Devonta Freeman was hurt.

I feel like you have to at least look Edo Smith's way beneath the surface too. Look, how do you give Devon to Freeman every ounce of this offense? Well, you don't need to give him every ounce. You just give him the workload that he has gotten before. Right. Which is you get him in the 230-carry range. And not to mention. But let's say you gave him 230. Okay. That is 121 up for grabs. Just throwing it out there for fantasy owners. That was last year's 27th ranked.

rushing attempts. If you go more average, middle of the road, let's see you give Devonta Freeman 230. Indianapolis was 17th in the league, 408 attempts. That's a lot of attempts on the table for another rusher in Atlanta as well. I'm not going to make the case against Edo right now because I'm busy making it for Freeman and the targets will go up.

Under Dirt Cutter, who is back as our offensive coordinator, the running backs average about 22% of the targets, unlike the past two years, which the running backs were seeing 18% and 14%. That's Freeman makes his money because he can get in that 230 carry range and still catch 50 plus passes. It's wild to me that the players that are going around, I don't fault people for being hesitant to draft him because he's...

He was hurt all of last year and the end of the year before. But you still, you've got to take your shot on a running back in a great offense. I will grant you this. If he's healthy, he is an extreme value. He's definitely good enough and on a good enough offense, proven enough, well-rounded in the sense that he's a pass catching back. The question is, look, he's dealt with a lot of injuries. He's a smaller-bodied guy for the position.

and, you know, the knee injuries and then the groin surgery, is he going the way of Doug Baldwin? That's the fear. And so I'm kind of out on Devon to Freeman, but you do get to a certain point where, well, if you're going to have the injury discussion of Freeman and Fournette, they're like, if they're both healthy and I knew both were playing 16 games, I would take Freeman. Yeah. And he's a great bounceback candidate. Yeah, no, he is. Do you believe he'll get the goal line work over Edo? Yeah. Oh, yes.

They only scored 11 touchdowns on the ground last year. Middle of the road would be 15-16. About the same size, but Freeman's a bigger. He's heavier. You say they only scored 11 touchdowns on the ground. Three of those were Matt Ryan, who is not known for that. Edo could not punch those balls in on the ground. And so I think Devon T Freeman, who has always had a nose for the end zone, if he's healthy, he'll be used there. Again.

I'm not super confident in this. They have one other guy, though, right? They have the rookie quadre allison. Yeah. Yeah. It's who's much larger. So, all right, my first bounce back here is Hunter Henry, tight end. He's one of those guys that, you know, he missed the whole season. And for some people like Cooper Cup, who had an ACL and is coming back and you're like, I'm worried he's going to get off to a slow start.

It's because the timeline is different. You know, Cooper Cup halfway through the season, some other guys, you've got late year injuries. It takes time to come back from injuries like that. But the timeline for Hunter Henry has been, you know, he missed the entirety of last year. He got hurt before the first game. And so the recovery timeline, not worried about it. Now you've got to remember what Hunter Henry did. I was going to say, have we ever seen a bounce?

Yes, 100%. You consider that even though he's never played, you know, he played like 10 games, 13 games. So I consider it from the standpoint of if you compare his first two seasons to anyone else, literally anyone else. His first two seasons over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. And you compare. Scottie Pippen. Compare him to Scotty Pippen. He had more than 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns more than Scottie Pippen's entire career. But total. Like when you're reading that out, it sounds like you're saying he had.

that in one year. Those was two years combined. Right, but I am comparing that to the two years combined of every other tight end. So for instance, if you just take fantasy points, right, which at the end of the day, that's all that matters. And you look at the first two years for other tight ends in the last decade, the guys above him are Gronk, Kittle, Jimmy Graham, Hernandez, Evan Ingram, and shockingly Jermaine Gresham.

I mean, and then it's Hunter Henry above a bunch of other guys. So, yeah, you feel like he didn't bounce because he was still in his first two years as a tight end. All the hype last year, too, I think is what plays into that. So it's a post-hype sleeper because of the injury. And you've got a guy who, you know, the Chargers still have 110 vacated targets. You have lost Tyrell Williams. He's out of the way. And also you've lost, I know this is kind of silly.

but is not at all in the fact that you've lost one of the best tight ends in the history of the game who got 45 targets last year. Scotty Pippin himself. How many Scotty Pippin jokes can we fit in a show? Antonio Gates isn't there. He had 45 targets last year. Let me ask you a question. Who has more receptions in your mind this year? Hunter Henry total receptions or Mike Williams total receptions?

That's a fair question. Henry had 45 and 13 games last time we saw him on the field. Last year, Williams had 44. Both have opportunity to step into some target vacuums. Yes. I have right now Hunter Henry. I have Hunter Henry down with nine fewer targets than Mike Williams. 89 to 80. Okay. So you're calling for the bounce back. So then you are in on the sixth round draft price.

I think the sixth round draft price, if you're someone that doesn't want to take the shot at the super late tight ends, and you want to have one of those middle tier tight ends, Hunter Henry to me has a better, like I would take Hunter Henry, you know, if you're comparing Hunter Henry to, say, Eric Ebron and the draft cost, then, yeah, I think, I think that's better. Angroom?

Ingram, I would definitely have a head of Hunter Henry. But that's the type of pick it is. You're talking about a middle-tier guy that could have volume. And we're not even talking about the other positions. I mean, you're bypassing, you know, James White, Lamar Miller, Tyler Boyd. I'm just saying, like, if you're all in on Hunter Henry saying, yeah, I'm going to pay the draft price that it takes to get him. It might be a late fifth round. I am 100% not saying that Hunter Henry is a breakout, that he's going to.

be unbelievable. You still have Mike Williams. You still have Keenan Allen. But he's going to be a top, you know, look, at tight end, to be a top eight tight end, it doesn't take much. He'll be there. He will be there at the end of the year. And if he falls in a draft, I would totally be willing to draft him. All right. We need to move on. Next, bounce back candidate. I want to bring up, it's kind of on the heels of these arguments that have been made about Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense. A lot of excitement, news, intrigue, mystery.

All of those things kind of surrounding the Cardinals' offense. I've heard so many national news outlets. Just curious about what this offense is going to look like. Mike, you've talked extensively about Kyla Murray, the capability in this offense. I read some things about Cliff Kingsbury wants to try to get to 90 plays a game. That's really an unheard of level. He wants to play in the shotgun. More plays, more opportunity, but we have not talked a lot about Larry Fitzgerald. That's true.

I don't think anyone wants to talk about him. Well, and that's the thing, though, but if you believe in the offense for Arizona, if you believe that it's going to take a step forward, we've seen enough of Larry Fitzgerald's career to see the ebb and flow of quarterback play in the effect that it has on his production. Two years ago, Larry Fitzgeraldives is the number five fantasy quarterback. Running wide receiver. I couldn't even correct you. The point being is last season with the just doldrums.