The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy RBs + The Perfect Season - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/25

Running backs are the most important asset in fantasy football, and we are taking a look at the truth of the best ones in 2023 to make sure you are set up for success in 2024. Don't miss a minute. Make sure you subscribe. To the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Oh, it was an O sound today. The Fantasy Footballers podcast. Is that for my Minnesota sweatshirt? You've gone back-to-back Minnesota swag, and I don't get what's going on. Well, it was, there was Arizona mixed in. Just not on the show. Not on the show. So not mixed in. So the last two shows has been Minnesota swag, just like I said. We want to know what that's all about. Are there some people you're trying to support?

Up there in the Great White North. Yeah. My Minnesota Vikings. Well, you'd like to see cousins come back, right? Oh, yeah. That's kind of the only path forward. Yeah. I think people were shocked to see the twins because of, one, you're very outspoken about baseball sucking, about not liking baseball. But this was, what was this? A shout out to Johann Santana. Yeah, that was a throwback to when I was a. A little Kirby Pucket. A massive, oh, yeah, World Series champ. massive Minnesota Twins. What did you, well, then as a massive fan, you probably saw the Minnesota twin that was just elected into the Hall of Fame. No. Oh, Joe Maurer. Joe Maurer, yeah. Can we stop talking about baseball now? Just pretty please. Welcome in one and all. Thursday, January 25th, the fantasy footballers. Jason will get back to the sport you know and love. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Give me that football. American football. This is the truth episode for the running back position. So we'll look at the top 10 running backs.

on today's show, the last couple of episodes, broke down the quarterbacks. And look, there's some pretty interesting data about the running back position from this past year that we'll talk about today. What else is going on? You're in all black today. I'm in a jacket today. I've given in. You know, we talked about the debate like me versus my, no, not good for me. Yeah. No, it's great. I was at lunch yesterday and I looked at the lunch table and every. single person there. And inside our studio is in, just bundled up. I'm surprised they didn't have mittens on. They're all hoodies up. Yeah, they look real comfy. They are inside all wearing jackets. This is inappropriate. What kind of pants are you wearing today? Oh, I'm in shorts. Give me. That's, that's a bridge too far, Andrew. It's like the foot out the, the blanket. He's just trying to get, like he understands that winter is X amount of fabric.

And it doesn't matter where you... That's right. Like, so it's all on the top app. I'm going to get a huge hat. It's a big hat. Funny. New Dynasty podcast came out yesterday. Sensational episode. We talked a little bit about rookie tight ends and then some dynasty trade targets and trying to... And not just, not just targets because, you know, we have players where you're interested in trading for or trading away, but just more the thinking... about the concept of dynasty trading and versus the market and that kind of stuff. So check it out. Did you do any analysis of my kind of perennially great dynasty team and whether I can just write it out again for another year? No, we did not. Because the time is running out for that team. The creditors, I mean, they keep loaning. Oh, man. But eventually.

They show up and they say. Someone's going to go knock, knock. Is Andrew Holloway here? Oh, I keep opening up. And you don't want to say, yes, I am. Andy's avoiding it, like, getting served. Yeah. Oh, I open up the mailbox and there's just a lot of pink paper in there. And I just shut that mail box. And I'm like, I'm running this team back. Yeah. Um, yeah, check that out the Dynasty podcast. And, you know, during the off season when we have two of our main show, it's a great time to jump in there if you play Dynasty and get involved. Yeah. And we're going to start breaking down.

rookie prospects here pretty soon. Yeah, yeah. Started the scouting process myself. And let me just say Marvin Harrison Jr., I think he's good. Oh, wow. I Jason Moore think he is a good prospect. You dug in, huh? I'm going to go ahead. I'm going to say it boldly. Okay. This is a big moment. Mainstream media won't tell you that this guy projected to go with the top five. I would just love it if Jason came out with his own dynasty rookie guide. And that's it. It's just his breakdown of Marvin Harrison, top to bottom. Yeah, yeah, the days are coming. I mean, for those that are new with us this year or those that may have forgotten, Super Bowl Sunday is when we begin our pre-sale for the ultimate draft kit, the 2024 ultimate draft kit. And as soon as you pick that up, if you get the UDK Plus on Super Bowl Sunday,

You get access to the Dynasty Pass immediately. Yeah, so a couple weeks from now, if you play Dynasty, you have access already to the 2024 Dynasty Pass and the UDK Plus. So make sure you pick that up at the cheapest price you can on Super Bowl Sunday. Yeah, and that is, what, February 11th, right? It's coming quick. So we're going to have a lot of good content out then. We do have some news. News and notes from around the league. Well, I mean, the big. The big news. Jim Harbaugh. He's back to the NFL. He's back. The Chargers landed the biggest fish in the coaching pool. And he is, make no mistake, the biggest fish. Obviously, you've got Bill Belichick out there. He's the oldest fish. He's older than Pete Carroll.

You got two old fish out there. Yeah, though those two old fish, no. But Harba was just a great coach. Like I know he didn't get along with the San Francisco 49ers owners and he can ruffle some feathers. But you look at his coaching history and he was great with the Niners. He was great with San Diego in college. He just won a national championship with Michigan. He's like, I don't remember him ever not being good. And obviously his Harbaugh or other is also a great. Wow. Really good. No. Boston. I was pretty proud of that. You know, they've got great football minds, and I think this is a great hire for the Chargers who have been the most, I feel like they are cursed. Just every game, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if it's 24 to 3. You just go, how are they going to lose a close one? Well, I look at the division they're in. They're going to be facing Mr. Mahomes for a long time, and Andy Reed and up-and-coming, I think, Raiders squad.

Denver with Sean Payton. So you needed a coach that could come in here and compete. Jim Harbaugh, look, I think they got along pretty well his first year. They went 13 and 3 with Alex Smith back in 2011. They went 11 and 4. They went 12 and 4. And then 8 and 8th, the final year, I think it was Trent Balke and him that didn't get along. But he was the coach of the year. They went to the Super Bowl. This was back when Greg Roman was the offensive coordinator in calling plays. They were a very run heavy team at the time. In fact, during the four years, we saw this morning, Kyle was pulling this up. They never ranked higher than 29th in past attempts per game. But the biggest question for fantasy players is around Justin Herbert. Yeah. It'll be higher because that was, I mean, you're talking about Colin Kaepernick was running your offense for the majority of the Harbaugh era. And it's.

I mean, rushing quarterbacks, their pass attempts are lower. And you had Frank Gore there being a great running back. Good coaches usually coached to their personnel. Right. And when you've got Herbert, I do think he'll utilize the talents Herbert has. So, yeah, there'll be a lot of excitement around the Chargers setting into the year. There'll also be, you know, at a minimum, like you want a balanced offense. And this team's running back situation is one to watch in the draft. Sure. Yeah, I mean, goodness gracious. What are they going to do? Echler is not under contract, and they proved this season without a shadow of a doubt that they do not have someone behind him ready to step up. Yeah, and then we have a new head coach for, did you guys already, we didn't already talk about Tennessee, did we? Tennessee? Oh, I don't think we, I'm not seeing it in the news. No, we already talked about Callahan.

We did? Yeah. On this show? I thought so. I don't know. If we didn't, Brian Callahan. He's a coach. That was all the way back on Tuesday? I feel like we talked about this. Yeah. Okay. This is what happens. We don't have a show every day. Yeah. All right. If we talked about it, I'm not going to talk about it again. The Eagles are hiring Vic Fangio to be their D.C. Packers fired their D.C. Joe Barry. Is there any other news? I feel like the Vic Fangio hire is great. I personally think it's. Like, you've got, yeah, you seem to not care. You can play that he's 65 years old, but Big Fangio has always run a good defense. Was it great for Miami? Yeah, Miami's defense was very good. Why was it so great that they fired him? I think they came to a mutual agreement. I don't think it was a straight up firing. The fact that it was like, hey, we're going to let you go. And tomorrow you've got a job. I think this was, I mean, he literally went from like,

He was going to be hired by the Eagles last offseason. So, yes, it makes sense that he found a home. I'm not saying I think he's a good defensive coordinator. I would also say that I think Miami was kind of up and down. I mean, over the course of the past couple of years, it doesn't excite me that much. Yeah, I would be excited if I was an Eagles fan. Okay. All right. Different opinions. Mike, it has none. Any other news we need to talk about? Nope. Did you hear about the Titans? Oh, tell me more. They got a new coach. Who? Callahan. Still not positive. We talked about it. Everyone keeps saying we did. I mean, I guess you guys were not excited about that higher. That's what now it's coming back to. Yeah, you remember. It's fine. Talking about Rabel. Well, there was some news this morning that Belichick is not the front runner for Atlanta's job. We'll see if that proves true. Yeah, that could be true. Also, news came out that Pete Carroll.

was making a push. Making a push for the Chargers job right before in contract negotiation times. So I don't know. I take all reports of those with the grant. Pretty sure that was a PFT exclusive. All right. If we don't have any other news, we will jump into the truth. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right, before we look into the top 10 running backs and what they really delivered for fantasy managers this year, we'll take a little, a moment for a broad view of the running back position. It's kind of a weird year. Obviously, we had some injuries, but this was the fewest total running back receptions since 2014. That's a long time. Alvin Camara did his best, but he could not catch enough league-wide.

Austin Echler did his worst? Yeah. So it reached that mark. And it was also less efficient. It wasn't just less involved in the passing game. They were not as valuable. It really has been like over the last couple years, the whole running backs don't matter. Narrative, running backs not usually going in the first round of drafts, obviously this year notwithstanding. It just feels like NFL teams are saying. It is the least effective play to use a running back. And it is true. Like Pat, even passing to a running back, which is more effective than a rushing attempt, is less effective than passing to a wide receiver or even a slot wide receiver. So maybe this is a trend that we will continue to see. I don't know. I mean, think about the teams that are left in the NFL playoffs right now. Like.

Kansas City's gotten there on the back of Pacheco. Like, bills were succeeding because they transitioned to a running offense with James Cook. The Lions have two formidable running backs that have brought them to this point. Obviously, CMC is the backbone of the 49ers. Like, we did see a resurgence in rushing volume this past year in terms of total attempts. Those were really trending down. It was weird, though, because you didn't have... as many cheat codes at the running back position with the receiving totals. I'm curious on that overall rushing volume. Is that just running back? Total rush attempts. Okay. But I mean, does that include the quarterback is my question? Like Derek Henry had 280 attempts and that's the lowest for a league leader. In terms of, yeah, in terms of like one player, what they're leading the league in total attempts. Yeah. Yeah. And even this year, I believe McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards.

but it was like 130 less than Jacobs last year, and then it was like 300 less than the year before. So yeah, it speaks to your point, like efficiency was down, even though the volume among all of them was up. And with running backs, the fewest rushing touchdowns in the last six years, thanks to like 300 touchdowns being rushed in by Josh Allen and Jalen Hertz. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. There are teams like... I think the challenge for fantasy managers with running backs has become more difficult at times because you have teams like Detroit where it's like, I think we'd all say like you can play Montgomery and Gibbs every single week, right? Yeah, but they're also both on the same team. Right? You're not, you don't have as many of the, like Echler not playing a big role this year. Yeah, workhorse running backs are down. Yeah. Josh Jacobs became less efficient. Austin Echler became less efficient. And those are two of the like five.

were, of course, running backs. If you get rid of, and then you lost on it and Taylor. Henry was less efficient. Yeah. Yeah. So we are looking at the truth, Mike. Great games. I can handle it. Great games, 21 plus points at running back. That's how we're defining a great performance. Good games, 12 plus points. Bus games, we're looking at fewer than seven points. And just to remind people, when we look at the truth of these positions or these players, We look at their consistency. We're not holding their missed games against them. Specifically, the games that they did not start. So if they did start and they played and got injured in that game, that will count against their score because you started them that week or could have. But we don't count, you know, if a player misses five or six games, like Jonathan Taylor scores really well in the truth this year. Obviously, you've got to factor in the fact that it wasn't as great as you wanted because he wasn't there for a lot of it, similar to.

You know, when we're going to go through wide receivers, Justin Jefferson was great on the truth score. But that only is when he's on the field, when you could start him. That's how we use our truth metric. All right. Number one, you guessed it. It's Christian McCaffrey. And the summary of Christian McCaffrey is, he is very good. Similar to Jason's analysis of Marvin Harrison? Yeah, yes. He did the deep, do the deep point? I've just finished. grinding the tape on CMC. And I'm, I'm absolutely in, guys. I think he's, uh, I think he's talented. Honestly, when we were watching the playoff game, he makes no sense. He makes no sense how no one can tackle him. How he just, it's like every play is like, wait, why does, why, why is he so much better than everyone? It doesn't make sense. And he is better than everyone that I've seen for.

as long as I can remember. He is so good and always has been. Back to Stanford, he's just the best running back out there. And speaking of how good the season was, it was 50% of his games were great, which is just ridiculous. 94% good, and he never had a bust game by our metrics. So it was, I mean, it was a perfect season, and to highlight it, like, since... You know, 2017, only Todd Gurley in 2018, McCaffrey in 2019, and then this year of McCaffrey has hit that mark of 5090-0. So it was a truly difference-making pick to get him at 101 or two or three wherever he got. I mean, I think you just said a word that makes perfect sense. It was a perfect season. Yeah. Right? Yeah, I mean, zero bust games, no, no down game whatsoever.

There was that one week where you weren't sure he was going to play in the Monday night game. Oh, right. So, I mean, there was some anxiety. Yeah, you might have held your breath. Yeah, you did at one point during that week. Do I have to play someone else? Is McCaffrey going to play? And he did, and he was great. When you combine the, everything we just said about the running back position overall. And you combine that with everything we just said about Christian McCaffrey's unbelievable season. There's a reason why I think the craziest stat that we've talked about and discussed on this show for a long, long time. One of the craziest in the nine years we've been doing this was the fact that over 50% of championship games this season included Christian McCaffrey in it because he was as good as any running back has been for the last decade and running backs were far worse than they've been for the last decade.

He was an unfair advantage. And next year, you have to do the same thing. He's got to be the 101. He's in a perfect situation, a perfect system. He hasn't slowed down. You don't worry about the age. He's too good. Amazingly, this is not the truth you really needed from us. Because I think you might have known that. That Christian McCaffrey was really, really good this year. So we'll take a quick break and come back with number two, Rahim Mostert. Usually you say we're coming back with number two and then we'll tell you who it is. I thought it would be, I don't know, I wanted them to think about Rahim Mostert during the break a little bit. I wanted them to think about like picture before the season and what you thought the number two running back would be and then put Rahim Moster's face in that spot because, I mean, this was an incredible season. Rahim Moster at 18 rushing touchdowns on the ground in 15 games.

The great problem with Mosterts season, and by the way, he was fourth inconsistency, ninth in the first half, seventh in the second half. So he didn't, like, due to the age, he didn't drop off inconsistency over the second half of the year. He got better. The only thing that was really impactful was the fact that when push came to shove for your fantasy playoffs, you didn't have him. Week 17 and week 18, he was gone. Yeah, he helped get a lot of people to the championship game, and then you had to pivot because he was not available for the championship.

You can't, I mean, he won a bunch of footies. So this was a clear, if you had Rahim Moster, you know the value. Because you drafted him very, very late. And he was the running back two on the year. When you can do, when you can grab a great running back late in drafts, there's not much more to say. The question is going forward next year with Devon A. Chan. having established himself as an important part of this offense going into his sophomore season, where he Moster being 32 years old, how do you expect the split to go there? Because Devon A-chan was our consistency metric ranked number 10. He was great in his own right. Yeah, and A-chan finished at 24 overall with the missed games, but consistency of 10. Just to break down those consistency metrics, Moster was 33% great, 60% good, 13% bust, A-chan was 45% great,

in the games he played, 55% good, 27% busts. H&S splits are unbelievable. Now, it's hard to know. Share them with us. Just how noisy the data is because you only have 11 games. But, and it's, he beat the crap out of bad teams. And I mean, most running backs do that. Like Christian McCaffrey splits 18 against top half teams, 25 points a game against bottom half. You expect that because. Touchdown variance. But for 8-chan, in the four games against top 16 rushing defenses, he averaged 3.9 fantasy points per game. Bottom 16 defenses, which that's the seven games, over 23 points a game. I think that's extreme noise. Extreme noise that you throw out, and here's why. When you only have 11 games to start, and two of the games happen to be against the...

top 16 defenses where you basically didn't play. Like against New England and his first game, I think he had one carry in that game. He was not involved at all. So he scores one total fantasy point that goes against a top scoring or a tough defense. On the flip side, you have his 50 point explosion against the Broncos, you know, bottom 16 running defense. So I don't think the splits are that crazy. There's not enough data there. It is noisy. But I will say this, like this season in particular, One thing that happened is when they were in a major game against the major opponent. There was a trust level in Mostert that was exhibited. You also had the question going into next year with Mostert. He'll be older, obviously. All players will. But this is getting to an age where you're like, dude, are you going to be like Fred Jackson here and be able to just pull this off? And obviously a lot of his fantasy production came on the back of the touchdown. How many total touchdowns they have? 23. Mostert?

I mean, he had 18 on the ground. I remember his 22nd total. 18 on the ground, three through the air. So 21. I do not remember his 22nd. No. Was that in the playoffs? Maybe. Okay. But the other question I will ask you, Jason, because we all know that Devon A. Chan has an unbelievable skill set inability. He spent the preseason on the injury list with a shoulder sprain. He spent seven weeks on injury reports with a knee sprain. where he missed five games. He spent another three weeks on injury reports with toe problems and bruised ribs. And it feels a little bit like a fulfillment of prophecy to a degree because we said like, hey, he's little. This is something that could happen. He also seems too fast, like illegal. Like it's not like you're going too quick. Your body doesn't like that. So.

You know, I would expect there to be balanced next year. I would also expect most people to take A. Chan over Moster next season. Yeah, that'll be interesting. I'll be shocked if that didn't happen. I'm sure that will happen. You've got a second year player coming into his prime who looked just as good as Moster. I mean, when you watched A. Chan, it was like every time he touched the ball. I was like, wow, there's another seven yards. There's another. You just can't stop him. Now, the injury concern is fully legitimate at his size. You know, he came in undersized. That was why prior to drafting, to the Miami Dolphins drafting him, you know, we were kind of out on A-chan in as a, in the prospect season. After he went to the dolphins, obviously, I thought it was a great pairing and was all in on A-Chance. It was the only spot. Yeah, it was the only place where it was like, all right, I'm going to change and he's going to be good, and he was great. But I think it's legitimate to say I worry about injuries with him, but there aren't many.

fantasy assets that could ever go out and put up 50 points. And he can't. So you're going to have to take the gamble and decide what kind of fantasy player you are. I'm going to be in on age. Let me give you the weeks 13 through 18, end of season, last six games projected over a year. Healthy. 181 attempts, 960 yards on the ground at 5.3 Eclipse, which is amazing and yet somehow way lower than what he started the year with. 70 targets, 48 receptions, 357 yards, about 10 total touchdowns. It will all come down to utilization in the health of Rahim Moster. I'd imagine the team wants to run it back with these two and do very similar things on the ground, even if the pendulum swings a little bit through the A-Cham production. I think you're right. And Moster is under contract in 2024, so you've already got these guys both back. Yeah. Number three. Wow. Travis E.T.N. Wait, wait, real quick.

Where will Mostert be drafted, do you think? Rahim Mostert. The number two running back on the season. Nowhere near number two, obviously. Third, fourth round. It'll be so interesting. Yeah, I think he might drop to like the fifth. I think A Chan will go in the second. It'll be so interesting. Like the top of the second. Yeah, I agree with that. And so then Moster, I'm going to go late third. I don't know if people will have the. ability to pass on what he did. But the age, I mean, who would be in contention in that late third next year? Because that, I want to tease this out a little bit. Like who do you think we're running backs? Yeah, I mean, he's going to go ahead of Mixing, won't he? Yeah, I mean, he'll go ahead of Nogh, won't he? Man, probably. He'll go ahead of Noggi. Yeah. I don't know. I think Mixon will go back. Connor or Mostert next year. In ADP? Yeah, who do you think goes higher? Mostert. People don't like Connor anyways. Yeah, probably Mostert.

Those two are very similar. Yeah, they're both older and very talented and productive and not given the respect they deserve. Like Camara. Yeah, Camara will probably. Camara or a mustard. Oh, it'll be most. Really? Yeah, I don't think, I'm not going to be in on Camara next year. Wow, you're Mr. Camara. We're trying to speak for the public. That's what I'm guessing what they will. I'm only speaking for myself. Yeah. I said ADP. I set the ADP. I've been speaking for Mike this whole time. Andy draft position. Andy draft position is ADP. Don't you know what that is? I think so you think people will be in on Camarra. I guess I... No, no, I'm just saying between the two of them, I don't know if that's a really tough call. What happened over there? There was a loud crash. Let's throw the camera over there. Who is that? Something over this way. Did you throw something towards the garbage can?