The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy RBs + The Perfect Season - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/25

No, I kicked the bottom side of the desk. Oh, goodness. That's all right. Grow up. Yeah. Learn to control your body. Be a professional. All right. Travis ETN. Let's find out the truth because this is why we do this show. Yeah. It's not a, it's not a happy truth. This was a third round draft pick Travis ETN was last year. Finishes at three in total fantasy output and yet 14 in consistency. 29% great, 53% good, 24% bust. The first half of the year, he was the third most consistent. In the second half, he was the 32nd most consistent. It was a tale of two seasons almost, right? I mean, yes. Dominated bottom 16 teams, which is why the first half was so good. They played a lot of bad defenses and a lot of good matches for him. Bad offensive line, you felt it. His efficiency was way down. We never saw a breakout for anybody else in that running.

you know tank bigsby oh goodness tank bigsby is i mean the tank was empty do we just call them kishon vaughn now i mean that's that's the season you got right there are always off-season players that you're like boy they're going to have a shot and then they don't and at least for bigsby in year one that's what the case was etienne is their guy Yeah, I mean, you can be confident going into next year of Travis E.N's utilization that he's going to get enough work, that he's involved in the passing game. I mean, there's, you know, when you look at the opportunity that running backs receive, you love what you saw. When you look at the talent and the ability of a running back, you also love what you saw oftentimes. But, and we brought this up about midway through the season, about the fact that he was actually pretty inefficient on the ground.

He was living on touchdowns that first half of the year. You know, when he had a four week stretch as the running back one, the running back three, the running back four, and the running back five, I'm pretty sure those came on the back of two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns. Do it again. Say it again. Okay, hold on, guys. That's super hard to say. Two rushing touchdowns? Yeah, no, say it four times. Two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. Oh, that was pretty good. That was so easy. Two rushing touchdowns, I closed my eyes though. I got real focus. Two rushing touchdowns. Okay, all right. All right. You at home, play along, pause it. Say it four times. That human torch was denied a bank loan. Here's something I will say about ETN going into next year. He's just 25 years old.

And the season for Jacksonville was not what anybody hoped for expected. You don't generally find, you know, a top-tier running back, consistency-wise, on a squad that is losing a lot of games and missing the playoffs. It was a bad second half for them. It was, I mean, the Jaguar's season fell apart. They collapsed. And so the question going forward for Travis E.T.N. is a matter of. For me, like when I'm thinking about Travis E.T.N. I'm thinking about Trevor Lawrence. And what I believe he is to this franchise and will they be winning games and scoring a lot of points? Or is he just really a middling quarterback that's going to be a Derek Carr level asset for the next four or five years? Because that, to me, impacts whether Travis E.N. is a fine running back option who will be an important piece in fantasy or he's a great running back option.

And I don't think he's going to be a great running back option. Travis CTN was drafted as the RB 10 in the third round. He was worth it, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I mean, from a draft value, people crafted a narrative as to why he wouldn't produce this year, and he did. So we need to keep that in mind going into the next year. But the second half, like if you look at week nine on, because this guy finishes the running back three on the season, that's how good his first half was and what he can do. But the second half of the season from week nine on,

He was the running back 21. Jerome Ford scored more than Travis E.T.N. So, you know, Tony Pollard, who everybody hated and never really got it together, outscored Travis E.T.N. over the second half of the season. Jay, did you, I'm sorry, when you were talking about the two rushing touchdowns, did you mention the in nine games without a touchdown, he averaged eight and a half points per game? I did not. And that's the point. Yeah. That's the point is he was. Touchdown Reliant. If he didn't get touchdowns, he didn't have a good fantasy game. At number four, Breece Lightning. Oh, baby. Breeze Hall, 22 years old, was a fourth round draft pick, the running back 14 off the board. There were doubts around how quickly he'd come back from the torn ACL along with the signing of Dalvin Cook. He may seem comedic at this point to have had doubts.

but that is what was circling around draft time. Otherwise, RB14 was not going to be where Brees would have gone. Now, bumpy start to the season? Well, the first month, the first month, remember, he didn't get the ball much. He had eight carries a game. That would have been a 17-game pace of 136 carries. He was coming off the ACL. So he was very underutilized that first month of the season. This was very much like the mental picture of like, One man put on a bunch of armor and was all alone and ran to face an army of 1,000 every week. I mean, no offensive line. You lost Aaron Rogers. The opportunity that he had, look, he had a ton of carries when the season was over, but not super efficient. 31st ranked offensive line. We all know who he really is. This season it was 29% great, 53% good, 18% bust.

But we know who Breeshall is. We know that this is a play. Like Brees Hall to go above Moster. Brees Hall should go above E.T.N. Brees Hall should go above the majority of running backs next season. And I don't think any of us have any doubt about that. I wouldn't doubt if he's a back-end first round pick. Brees Hall finished the season as the running back four without Aaron Rogers with the worst offensive line, coming off of an ACL injury, not getting the ball a lot to start the season. Now, I do think that there are caveats to that going to next season. He's not going to receive the target share and the level of dump-offs that he had this season when the offense couldn't do anything other than just throw the ball to breeze over the line of scrimmage and hope he could make a play. That's what the entire Jets offense turned into. But you assume if Aaron Rogers is back and please, please, Jets, Aaron Rogers is not the biggest problem on your team. The quarterback is not the biggest.

Please fix this offensive line. This offensive line, I don't know how they're ranked 31st. I'm not sure who's 32nd. But that's embarrassing. If someone out there is worse than the Jets offensive line, they need to fix it. But it'll change next year. But he's 23 years old next season. I don't know if 95, like if you took the over under 95 targets next year, I think I'd be taking the under. Yeah, me too. But this is a first round draft pick and fantasy, in my opinion. And. You just had to take the inconsistency this year on the chin because of the offense and because of where the jets were headed. Yep. And you're hoping that Rogers, I mean, more touchdown opportunity balances out. Your overall opportunities coming down. So I'll be in on Brees. Let me give you a tough question as we move to our number five running back. If you were in a dynasty league and you had Bijon Robinson, would you offer him for Brees Hall? Hmm. Jason.

I have both on my roster. You fell into my trap. Did I get you a championship last year? No. I also have Travis E.T.N. But no. No, I did not get a championship. So basically, who would you rather have Brees Hall or Bijon Robinson? I would rather have Bijon Robinson? And I love you know, I mean, I'm not on that side. My love for both of those men, please don't hear what I'm not saying. I think both are absolute phenomenal. I mean, that's probably the running back. They're two of the top four running backs and dynasty. I think I've seen more at the NFL level from Brees than Bijon in terms of elite play. That's it. That's fine. I think I think Bruce has proven himself to me more. And that's even with the ACL. Well, right now he's alone. They don't really have another running back there to challenge him. Well, if Arthur were the coach, someone else would have been available. That's true.

All right, number five was Joe Mixing, guys. Consistency rank of eight. 53% good games, 12% great. So you didn't get a lot of that. But you only had 6% bust. He was a value pick in fantasy because he went in the late third round at RB13 and was even better in the second half of the year. Now, we had the borough injury, obviously. I think there were a lot of doubts around mixing. He was like one of the least sexy running back picks people were making. Mm-hmm. And, you know, I fell into the trap. I didn't want to settle for Joe Mixing. I wanted to shoot for somebody with a higher upside. But I wish I had not done that. I wish I had taken Joe Mixon and just accepted the free fantasy points he was providing instead of some of the variables players like, I don't know, Damien Pierce provided this year.

Yeah, it's fair. And going forward next year, remember, Joe Mixen restructured his contract. He restructured his contract in a way that means he's going to be there next year. He's going to be their guy. Towards the second half of this season, Joe Mixon impressed the heck out of me. When you lost Joe Burrow and you want to rely on your running game and the other team just can't stop you. You know he reminded me a lot of James Connor at the end of this year. You had the backup quarterback playing. You had, you know, a hurt offense and the, you know, the opposing defenses, no. Joe Mixen is going to get the ball here and there, and they're trying to stop him. But he broke a lot of tackles. He played well. He looked like he was playing like, I don't know, like an older version of himself, not trying to home run everything, but always just getting that extra yard or two. He really impressed me. Next year, I think I'm going to be like in on Joe Mixon. The run that he is on.

Let me just give you the perspective of the back of the card, so to speak, for Joe Mixing. Throw out the 2020 year where you only play six games. Okay. So that means since 2018, every healthy year he's had. RB 9, 13, 3, 12, 5. He's the only running back in fantasy to finish top 12 each of the last three years. There's no one else that's done. Bravo. Yes. Bravo, Joe Mixon, you surprised a lot of people. Let me tease it the way Mike wanted. You won't believe who number six is after this. Who is it? Yeah, now the people want to know. I want to know. Is it diet? You guys both already know because it's right in front of you. Yeah, I knew before. Acting. This is a, I wasn't actually a wizard. See, right now they're going, just say it already, but I'm not going to. I'll say it. Diet CMC. Christian McCaffrey Light, Kyron Williams. Now, see, I feel like you just stole that from Rashad White.

We called him baby CMC. Yeah, but. So you think Kyron fits that. Kyron fits it much, much better. Yeah. Yeah. Kyron Williams finishes at six despite missing a lot of time. He was the number one most consistent running back in all of football over the second half of the year. Number two on the, on the season. 50% great games, 83% good, 8% bust. When we talked about Christian McCaffer at the top of the show, and we said he was the number one running back who had one of the most historical seasons, and you looked and you expected it to be like what we saw with Josh Allen, where it was number one on the course of the season, number one in consistency score on the course of season, number one in the first half, number one in the second half. Except it was all number one's except number two in the second half. And that's not because Christian McAfee was bad. It's because of how outstanding Kyron Williams. So you're taking them ahead of Breeze Hall next year.

I would take Kyron Williams ahead of Bijon next year. Yes, I'm taking Kyran ahead of both of those guys. Okay, so Kyran is probably my number two. He's the first round. He's in your number two. I mean, I'm taking CMC as far as at the running back position. Yeah. Yeah. I think you've got to go Kyra next. He, he was a revelation. And outside of missing games, he was unstoppable that he never faced stacked boxes because he's got a coach that schemes his players open. This offense looks great with Puka coming into year two and Kyron. Let me read fantasy finishes for you. 6, 23, 23, 1, 1410 to end the year. Yeah. Just kidding. That was Cam Acres the year before. Yeah, that was. That was Cam Acres the year before. So I'm just bringing that up because Cam Acres looked like this for six whole weeks with Sean McVeigh. I'm not taking it away from what we saw in the field from Kyron.

But he is certainly the beneficiary of a genius on the offensive side of the football. We need to see. Were you confused when I was reading those out, Mike? Yeah. Your face looked real confused. We're not reading the same numbers. No. The Rams, what they do at the running back position in the free agency period and the draft will be humongous. Because if we get, if we only get a backup caliber player or a later. pick, then Kyron's going to feel safe at the top of the Rams depth chart. He saw 37% of the team rush attempts and targets in his 12 games played. Christian McCaffrey's only one higher, 39%. Like Kyron was a true workhorse running back. And yet, Cam Acres had those numbers. Todd Gurley had those numbers. It's more about does Sean McVeigh?

want to go for it with Kyron Williams, that's his guy. And if the actions of the team specify that, then I'm with Jason. I don't know if he'll be at number two for me, but he'll be easily in the top five. There are two running backs ever to score 15 plus total touchdowns in 12 or fewer games over the last 40 years. Who, hot stats. Priest Holmes in eight games did it in 2004 and Kyron Williams. Yeah. You were going to. No, I mean, Kyran is, he was a centerpiece of the offense. And when you listen to, like here's a difference, right? We weren't sure if Cam Acres was the guy. We knew that the running system for McVeigh is great and Cam Acres finished the previous season so hot. But whenever you listen to McVeigh, talk about Cam Acres, you weren't sure he wanted him on the roster. When you listen to Sean McVeigh talk about Kyron Williams, he.

loves Kyron Williams. Kyron Williams, I believe, will be the centerpiece of this office. Obviously, Mike is right. Like if they go out and surprise us and spend a day two pick or, or, you know. Just watch out for the fifth round. Right. They are good at pick and fifth rounders. Look, Jared Goff was productive with Sean McVeigh. He didn't want Jared Goff. Right. So that's the similar thing. He wants Stafford. He wants Kyren and Kyrin dominated. And there's nothing to dislike. The utilization, fantastic. The receiving work, great. The goal line work, awesome. His success on every aspect of the field. Like, I don't know. At some point. He's barely 23 years old. At some point, you have to get rid of the draft capital. And I'm at that point. It's the only not on him. Let's move on to one of the most valuable draft picks in fantasy football for the 2023 season. Extra fat CMC.

Oh my gosh. Yeah, this is extra sugar. I will defend this man because I was the only one doing it in the off season. Rashad White finishes at seven, consistency rank of seven. It was 19th in the first half, fifth in the second half. He was the running back two in all of fantasy from week seven on. And very, very consistent, very, very productive. didn't do it on the back of 21 touchdowns like Rahim Moster, right? Like he got it done. He had nine touchdowns on the year, 70 targets, 64 catches on 70 targets. So you talk about just when you drop the ball down to Rashad White, he did not drop the ball. So this is what changed. If you remember, we were going into like week seven and you weren't even sure if you should be starting Rashad White or not because he would have a big game and a bad game and a big game and the bad games were.

Not even six fantasy points. They were atrocious. Three games under six points in the first five games. Yeah. So, I mean, it was like, can we trust Rashad White? He was very ineffective on the ground. They did not run the ball well. Even over the course of the season when he was awesome, 3.6. But there was a clear and obvious change in the passing game. And the nice thing is. Todd Bowles came out and talked about this about halfway through the season, like how important they need to get him the ball in space. And they just kept with that. Those first five games, those first five games, he was on pace for a season total targets of 57 targets. I mean, his fantasy value is entirely in the receiving game. That after that point, you know, he was on pace for 68 receptions. So he was just used in the passing game so much from week seven on.

He's a wide receiver for all intents and purposes because his efficiency was, but bad on the ground. So does Baker make the difference here? Yes. It makes a huge difference. Yes. If Baker is back, then I think Rashad White will be effective again. I mean, you don't need him to be. Like I see there as being more as much upside to white as downside. Like I think some people would say, hey, he's going to revert. Right? You won't catch as many passes. I see you could be more efficient on the ground. He can improve. Their offensive line was trash. Yeah. I think that's the, if I had to guess where they're going in the first round of the pick of the draft, I would guess they're going to try to add an O lineman here. And that would be very durable. That could be awesome for White. Who, who also, you know, I need to give more credit. I know he was ineffective on the ground, but like he surpassed all my expectations and looked the part in the.

In the receiving game, he became effective and efficient and was valuable. He broke tackles. He got touchdowns. He had an awesome season and it deserves mad dab. The 3.64 yards per carry for Rashad White, that is the lowest for a top 15 running back over the past five years, his 0.7 fantasy points per opportunity was below the league average at the running back position. So he, he's so difficult because he needs. everything to be exactly the same in terms of he needs Baker or an equivalent pocket quarterback who you know checks the ball down and then you need to make sure there is no one else on this team who can challenge him for work. I'm going to be a full apology for a shot white. I'm just going to admit that right now. A truther.

Yeah, because I look, he got, it's like Najee's rookie year. He got 272 carries and we're going to make every excuse for the efficiency for Breece Hall on that offensive line. And we know that Rashad White, look, he got so many. He had games where he had 27 carries, 27. It doesn't, he wasn't as effective on them. But they committed to the run and he was their guy. So yes, you always have to watch the depth chart. But this is the team that just made a run to the divisional round that no one saw coming. On the back of Rashad White. And the best part to me is that the organizational structure is not going to change. Their offensive coordinator is not getting promoted to a head coach. Todd Bowles isn't going anywhere. The GM isn't changing. Are you shutting the door for Mr. Canales? Yeah, I think so. Oh, I think he's probably hoping to still get a job. Yeah, you should. There's nothing wrong with hope. Everyone should have hope in their life, goals and hope. But yeah, it's not. You don't think so. No, I don't think so.

Assuming, I mean, that would be a big deal to me. Because right now this coaching staff completely relied upon Rashad White and they won games doing it. So I would imagine next year, like I'll be in on Rashad White should there not be massive changes. And it doesn't, like I would imagine Baker's going to be back. And I don't think they're going to add some crazy piece of running back. So I think you can expect more. volume, because that's what it was. He was a volume play. 342 opportunities on the season. That's incredible. Mostard or Rashad White in the draft next year? Mostard. Who do I want or ADP? Who would you rather take? I lean mustard. That was how I answered the question as well. I think White will go ahead of him 80P. Interesting. As of right now. Derek Henry came in at 8. Consistency of 11. That dropped to 17 in the second half of the year, six in the first half of the year.

Here's what you weren't used to. 29% bus games for Derek Henry. You had weeks where he was literally the reason you probably lost, at least five of them. I got great news. Henry doesn't have to play the Houston Texans anymore. Yeah, man, they just have his number as we all knew. The one, like the thing you look forward to the most with Derek Henry. Every year was you played the Houston, Texas twice. And I know I have two weeks that Derek Henry will win me my fantasy week. And this year they lined up to both be in the fantasy playoffs. I remember the underdog leagues, the best ball mania.

maniacs who were just looking at the week 17 matchup, the playoff matchup, the correlation, the comebacks, all that stuff. Derek Henry was king because two games against the Houston Texans in that stretch to which he put up three fantasy points and four fantasy points. You really should have gone with seven point two points. Total against the Houston Texans. Insane. Yeah. I mean, you would have been better off playing his teammate. Tajay Spears in that time. Alger, Chase Brown. Heck, Isaiah Spiller would have been a better start. Henry was baffling last year because you have, you know, we have five games where he was catastrophic to play him. And watching him play in those games, I mean, he could get nothing, nothing going at all. And then you would have other games. I mean, like the.

the week 18 watching him with the touchdown run following the blocker made a perfect cut look like vintage Derek Henry so he will be very confusing of I mean especially with landing spot I mean is Derek Henry a Baltimore Raven that's probably the odds on favorite since there was at least some smoke of him at the trade deadline going to that team Dallas To Dallas. I think Dallas is the dark horse. You put him on a high-powered offense like the Ravens or Dallas where you know there's going to be a bunch of opportunities. Tony Pollard was very ineffective, but the dude got a bazillion goal line carries. Those go to Derek Henry. That's going to be really hard. Those will be touchdowns. It's going to be really hard to turn down drafting Derek Henry, even though there are.

like flashing red signs of you need to be scared about Derek Henry for fantasy football. Yeah, it's a tough one. He's had a lot more tread on the tires than. He's 30. But most are it's going to be 32. Yeah, mosters just. And we're talking about taking him over Rashad White. They're both outliers just at the complete different end of the spectrum. Double digit touchdowns on a new team next year is what you're looking for with Derek Henry. Yeah, that's what you're hoping for. And it can happen. Obviously, we can't speculate yet, not knowing his team. I think the only thing we can really talk about is.

On the film, on the field, did he look like he lost anything? Did he look different to you? And sometimes it did. Yes. And sometimes it did not. I think. So I guess the answer is yes. The way that I viewed it is Derek Henry has never been one to break tackles at the line of scrimmage. Right. Like behind the line of scrimmage. He's a locomotive. He's a locomotive. You get him going a little bit. Nope. You're making business decisions. But if you can get him at or behind the line of scrimmage. He's never looked good. He looks like he's the easiest guy to tackle in the world. And man, the Titans offensive line. I think they were. We found him. Oh, was it? Yeah, we found the 32nd. Okay. Well, this works out perfect. So I guess my opinion. They're this 30 second ranked offensive line. Okay. That's what my eyeballs saw. And so I don't, I don't think it was actually Henry.

I think Henry kind of looked the same. Like you said, week 18. Henry was reported to say he was really jealous of the Jets offensive line. Yeah, so I think Henry still has it, and that's really all we can go off of right now. He didn't look bad to me. He just, he looked terrible in those games where it was eight guys on him two yards behind the line. Just for the fun of it, you'd be more excited in Baltimore or Dallas? Because for me is Dallas. Yeah, I would say Dallas because I think there'll be more. consistency. I think Baltimore, but I would love both. Bijon came in at number nine. Bijon Robinson, not yet 22 years old. 17th in consistency in the first half, eighth in the second half finishes the year as the 12th most consistent running back in fantasy football. I have been on record saying like Bijon's season was peculiar in so many ways. And I don't really know anybody. And I know you're out there.