Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Regress or Impress Candidates for 2017

Then Mike needs to make Zach Ertz the number one tied in because he was actually the number one if you project his back half stats last year. So for me, it's a very easy on paper regression to me and I'm not buying into Rudolph. A rookie Teddy Bridgewater and Christian Ponder and those type of things, you know, quarterbacks that he had.

before this last year are why he had four or 500 yards, not because he doesn't have the talent. He's always had the talent, in my opinion, and he will have the opportunity of the talent and we'll finish as a top six. It's rough for your career when Sam Bradford coming in is the savior of your quarterback. All right. Well, I mean, look, difference of opinion. I've got the regress. You guys got the impress, and we're moving on to our last name here, which is Zachary. Oh, Zach Hertz. There he is.

I was more excited for Zach Ertz when I saw the rapport he was building with Carson Wins and the target share that he had before Alshon, Jeffrey, Tori Smith. Yes. And the two draftics came in. That being said, I'm not going to throw him away. Okay, this is a guy who finished nine. Then he finished six. He would be the example of what Rudolph wasn't, which is somebody who is progressing forward over his career, not five years of mediocrity and then one good year.

For Zach Ertz, I have him slightly above Rudolph. I haven't at number seven. So I'm going to call him a impressed because last year he finished six. Next year, I think he finished top seven. So that's my piece. I said enough of it on the last guy. So you guys can go ahead and round us out. Yeah, the trouble for Zach Hertz is Alshon, Jeffrey, in Tori Smith, and Jordan Matthews getting to play back in the slot. So on top of that, Zacherts shows up for the last four games.

And then things just make his stat line look nice by the end of the year. He just doesn't score touchdown. That has been the huge problem. He certainly does not. I have him as a regression candidate and mostly because of the new targets. I'm with Andy. Before Alshan was there, I love it. The Earth's breakout. Let's have it. Let's have it really happen.

I just, I can't buy into it. Yeah, one of the things that made Ertz was just his target share percentage. And there's no way he can sustain that target share percentage with actual capable wide receivers now in Philadelphia. I have him as my Titan 8, so I can't really say regress. But because his trajectory was high, you know, impressing to me, I feel like Zachert's impressing would be he's taking that leap into a,

locked and loaded top five. So I'm kind of in between, but I think he's going to be an all right tight end. Nothing I'm excited about. There's a couple things that's nice about Ertz when you're looking at a projection for him. One, much like Amari Cooper, you don't have this unsustainable tight-in touchdown number that is going to regress and hurt you. Two, he hasn't had a season where he stayed fully healthy, and yet he still finished nine and six. So he only played 14 games last year, and he was part of that whole, okay, he was looking great with Sam Bradford.

moments before the season begins, Sam Bradford's gone, you have a rookie coming in, still put up a number six season. Those three things make me say, okay, core part of the offense, top six, top 70s, number six for me and half point seven in standard. So I don't think either of those guys, after all this was said and debated, I don't think either of those guys is going to kill you this year. I don't think either of those guys is necessarily going to drop out of the top 10. But, you know, you're going to have better seasons from Jordan Reed, Rob Grankowski.

I'd expect Greg Olson and some guys, Tyler Eifert, healthy, that I like a lot more than spinning. You know, you're going to see leagues where Kyle Rudolph and Travis Kelsey go way too high. Right now, what I love about both these guys is Rudolph and Ertz are the 10th and 11th tight end off the board. Both of them in my projections are higher than that track position. 10th and 11? Yeah, and you know who's going in front? Are rookies going ahead of them? No, but here's two guys going in front of him. Martellis Bennett. Yeah.

I can see that. Hunter Henry. I can see that too. Yeah, I mean, I can see it. I see why it happens, but it shouldn't happen. But it should not, is the point. You can only do so much in this world, Mike, and then everybody makes decisions for themselves. We're going to take a couple seconds, answer a few voicemails, and then we'll wrap things up, but we want to answer some listener questions. Mailbag. Mailbag. Oh, it's time. Let's answer your questions. A lot of dynasty questions coming in lately.

With it being May and all. What? It's going to be May. Visit the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Go to the more tab and then click submit a question. And you can send in your question to the show. We answer a few on almost every show. And then you can also dial our voicemail hotline 302-464 TFFB. And that's where we're going to kick it off in today's mailbag segment with a voicemail question.

That I have not heard. This has only been heard by... Oh, man. The pressure's on Brooks. By Brooks. So, I hope there's no profanity. Hey, guys. I love the show. Longtime listener, Book Clan member. Just a question about figures. I am the commissioners away last year. Half the league loved it. Half the league hated it. I'm wondering if there's an in-between solution that I can find, perhaps removing the points.

per yardage for kickers and rather just giving one point for every field goal that's made. I'm curious to hear your thoughts. This is a heated topic in my group and I want to find a democratic solution. Thanks, guys. Sounds like a good commissioner here. I was going to see a thoughtful commissioner there. Look, he hit on what I would have done. I don't think you need to take kickers away. I think it's a fun thing to have more players to watch.

I would nerf the scoring the same way I would do defenses. And so his solution would have been nerfing it more than I would have even suggested. I probably would have said three for a make, no matter the distance, no penalties for missing. And so you can't go negative. Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what I would nerf it to. Every year in our league of record, when I would stand up before the podium and say, I vote to remove kickers and would immediately be rejected in that, I would say, I vote to nerf kickers. Because, you know, when you get those.

Oh, he kicked a 50-yarder, so you get five points. That's silly to me, and I agree with each other. Or you get a blocked 30-yarder, which wasn't his fault necessarily. So, yeah, I would say three points for, you know, a field goal and one point for an extra point, no negatives, and move on with your life. Although you may need to look into the fact that you have a group of owners that are upset about kickers.

That could concern you. All right, Eagles question about Alshan Jeffrey. Why should I draft Alshan Drefrey with my third pick? When players like Doug Baldwin, Keenan and Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Cooks are also available. I guess he's asking this based on our rankings. Possibly. Seeing Alshan Jeffrey up in the 10-11 range from me. Look, I have a very complicated answer. So track with me. He's enormous.

Okay, I think I'm following you. You with me so far? So far. Look, at the end of the day, you've got a guy on a one-year deal with an up-and-coming quarterback, and he's enormous. When he plays, he's... When he plays, he scores. The end. Yes. The end of the story. So, unless you're projecting injury, which, by the way, Keenan Allen is very familiar with, I don't... If you want to take one of these other guys, take them.

Our rankings are based on our projections. I'm not sure Jason is where me and Mike are with Alshan Jeffrey. He did have to move him up, and I loved it. Yeah, so here's where I am on Alshan because I don't want to like him, by the way, because I don't like guys that get hurt like Mike. Mike likes those guys. I had Alshan at 30.

And I was throwing some shade on Alshan. I looked into it. You were strutting around, like hot stuff. Look what I did to Alson, Jeffrey. Well, I took another book, new information. And I had to move him up. I did because, you know, the touchdown total I was projecting for Carson Wins was. Four. There were some. There were some absent touchdowns. But I will say this.

His upside is not what his upside has been in the past. And you could say, oh, all he does is score touchdowns. But, you know, he had that one year where he played 16 games, got 10 touchdowns. So it was great. But we're living on that. Like, his next highest touchdown total was seven. The next highest is four. He has not really ever strung together, you know, multiple years of great touchdown production. We just think he is because he's big. And so I think Carson wins.

He is not going to be throwing 30 touchdowns next year, and he does have more options. You know, he's still got Zach Gertz, maybe some touchdowns start going his way, or Tori Smith or Darren Sprouls, and you have injury risk. So for me, I think he is a fine, you know, he's going to be all right. He's a wide receiver two for me. But in the third round, if Doug Baldwin's there, I'm taking Doug Baldwin personally. I also like that he's a chunky guy.

He's always been a high yards per catch type of guy who grabs those big chunk yard plays. But Mike, any thoughts on Alshan? I would not draft him in the third. I mean, the thing about rankings are they do not always tell a whole story, which is why we have our tiered rankings and our full projections available in the ultimate track. You got to get the whole picture. Yeah. Sometimes you got to take a step back because it's a PPR league. I would.

I'd rather have Larry Fitzgerald than it depends on who else is on your team. So there's a lot of big questions here. I'm not telling you to take Alshan in the third because I would not do that. I'm laughing over here at this question. We'll wrap it up with this one. A reminder, Mike just brought up the Ultimate Draft Kit. There are 16 days left to get it at pre-order pricing at Ultimate DraftKit. The cheapest you can possibly get it. That's true. Way to say. I'm standing by it. Good, good.

This question came in, and the title of the question is all capitals, and it says, Kelvin Benjamin. And he said, listen to this. Last year, guys, I traded away Michael Thomas for Kelvin Benjamin. Oh, no. And the person I traded with will not let me forget about it. As they shouldn't. Is Kay Binge going to have a bounce back year? I am getting him very late in mock drafts, but when should he be going? Look, Calvin Benjamin to me.

The loudest panic alarm. I may not have turned the sound down after that voicemail. But here's the thing. Hopefully you had Calvin Benjamin for weeks one and two because that was spectacular. Oh, that's when the trade happened. Very good. Oh, that's absolutely when the trade happened. Right off the – I'm guessing week four because he had the two good weeks and he had a down one. And then I bet that's when the trade happened. Probably Michael Thomas had a good week.

But look, Calvin Benjamin has some things stacked against him. One of the concerns about Benjamin when he came out of college was the motor. Did this guy want to play football enough? And I think you've seen the intermittency of Calvin Benjamin. Yeah, he had the injured year. But last year, sometimes he looked into it. Sometimes he didn't. You've had weight reports. Now you have Curtis Samuel and you have McCaffrey out of the backfield. Although he also did lose again. Yeah. And Corey Brown.

Yeah, no, that's true. But you have to bank on a couple of things happening. You have to bank on him returning to form, and you have to bank on that quarterback.

Mr. Cam Newton finding himself against. So I am not a Calvin Benjamin. Calvin's going to have a wide range, I think, depending on which draft you're on. Like a wide range. Some people still really like him, and he might be drafted in the fourth or fifth round. And in some leagues, you're going to have him fall to the sixth or seventh. When I'm in the seventh round and I see Calvin there, I'm completely willing to take him because his upside potential is still there versus a lot of the guys that go in the seventh round. No, that's fair.

So it's just a matter of what type of league you're in. He's enormous, too. Connor here we give him credit for that. Connor says he's in a standard league. And what you've got to hope for here, Connor, is that the addition of McCaffrey and Samuel makes this a more high-powered flying offense. Get Kelvin Benjamin some more. On the oxygen mask. No, give Kelvin Benjamin more scoring. Goal line. Opportunities. Because we know he's, he can do that. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. He is just.

Yeah, I don't know. And I will say this. I mean, we've said this many, many times. Cam Newton had too big of a season in 2015. It was not the norm. But last year was also not the norm. I think it's going to be in between there. And if he throws three or four more touchdowns than he did last year and none of them are to Ted Ginn, Calvin Benjamin could have a bounce back. He's like in a half pipe right now. He just keeps too high. No, too low. Too high. pendulum swinging. Yeah, let's let's.