Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Regress or Impress Candidates for 2017

Yeah, I mean, I'm not expecting him to necessarily go up, but I think he will be a wide receiver one. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game playing. He lost Brandon Cooks, who was, you know, arguably the one. 117 targets. Right, 117 targets gone. And those aren't going to go over to Michael Thomas. You know, they'll be soaked up by Willie Sneed and by Tickin. But I think that Michael Thomas, I went back and watched the film.

And because I did not want to buy in to his, I mean, his catch percentage was absurdly high. But the reality was he came in and had an immediate rapport with Breeze. His route running was great. His hands were great. Everything seemed to sink up. And it reminded me a lot of someone else who was a rookie with Drew Breeze who came out great playing the same exact role, which is Marquise Colston. And Marquis Colston, from his rookie year to his sophomore year,

went up across the board. So I think things are, I believe Michael Thomas is as safe as anyone in fantasy football can be, which is, you know, eh. Yeah, I mean, I have him, I'm with you, Jason. I have him around where he finished last year. I still was bringing this up to Mike in the office the other day. You can take Brandon Cook's targets away, but you're also taking away.

The game planning that the opposing defense does in the locker room against Brandon Cooks. And we were talking and Mike was saying things like, well, you know, Brandon Cooks isn't a number one or whatever it is. To opposing defenses, Brandon Cooks took the top off and Brandon Cooks was who you game plan against. You didn't go in last year you didn't go in a game plan against Michael Thomas. But Andy, I got Tedkin. Oh, voice of public opinion. The voice of public opinion has had a longstanding relationship with Ted Kim.

This whole career, have I? Yes. This whole career. Look, Ted Ginn, I don't know if the snap counts for Ted Ginn are going to be the same that they were for Brandon Cooks. I don't believe that for a second. I'm actually kind of with the voice, public opinion on Ted Ginn. I think that he's going to be solid. You stand alone here. That's fine. I do think he's going to be solid, but I've got him losing at least 20 targets off of what Brandon Cooks did. And so since the Drew Brees era started in 2006 in New Orleans, the Saints,

Average, average the second most yards in the NFL, and that includes six years as the number one. 117 targets gone with Brandon Cooks. And I know this is a little narrative street-esque, but I feel like it's applicable here because of who the coach is. If Sean Payton likes you, you get the ball. He has shown me that just time over time again.

with players who maybe they don't deserve to get the ball, yet Michael Thomas does, tied for fourth in 10 zone targets. Where was Brandon Cooks? 37. That's what that's... He's not getting targeted. That's higher. When they go, when they're inside the 10, Brandon Cooks is not seeing the ball. They're throwing it to Michael Thomas. So it's tough because of the game as regress or impressed, because I don't think that he's going to finish higher than 7th.

But I'm with Andy that I think he's a wide receiver one. Devante Adams. What do you guys think about Devante Adams? I'm still only 24 years old. The 12 touchdowns last year. Very impressive. Where do you have Devonty Adams finishing this year? And what kind of a risk is he for fantasy owners? I am not the biggest Devonty Adams fan. I have him in that wide receiver 2 range, 21 and standard scoring. Half point leagues, 23. So I am a regression.

I believe he's a regression. I think it'll be around 70 receptions, but I think the touchdown totals will come down a little bit, and that's going to be enough. That's what moved the needle for Devante. What do you have his touchdowns at? Nine. Okay. So 12 to 9. I think nine's a great total. Sure. But I have more 71 for 909. Good season for the Packers? Okay season for fantasy. I was going to say that since 2011, minus the Aaron Rogers collarbone season.

He has at least two pass catchers with eight or more touchdowns. Yeah. So lock in eight to me for Devante Adams, which that's a big gap. That can't rotate back to Cobb, a healthy Randall Cobb is here? I just, I don't think it does. I don't think it has to. I don't think it has to rotate off. I believe, and I know that's from. Sometimes he has three with eight plus. Sometimes four, sometimes five. He could do everything. He's Aaron Rogers.

The reality is he can support great fantasy seasons for Jordy.

for Devante Adams and for Randall Cobb. You shared a stat a while back about when he's got, you know, a full season with Jordy since 2011. He averages, he being Aaron Rogers, averages 40 touchdowns. When I'm picking my quarterback, I'm wanting to make sure they get to 30, you know? And it's like, you're averaging 40? That's nuts. And when I look at, you know, since 2011, which is really when that the newest era has started in football, in the NFL.

I look at the names of receiving touchdown leaders. Of course, number two is Jordy Nelson. Of course. Don't even mind the fact that he missed a whole year. Okay. He's still the... I will not mind that fact. He's still the second highest touchdown total. You were so angry. Well, I'm just saying it's unbelievable. But here, let me read you number nine, number 10, 11, or 9, 10, 11. Okay. This is since 2011.

the number 9, 10, and 11 wide receivers in touchdown totals. You have Julio Jones. Very good player. You have Larry Fitzgerald, first ballot Hall of Famer. Then there's a guy named James Jones. How's his talent? Is he any better or worse than Devante Adams? He's very good at wearing sweatshirts under his jersey. I actually read that wrong. The name was Aaron Rogers.

Okay, whoever Aaron Rogers wide receiver is is going to score touchdown. So I do have him regressing. I've got him down at 15, so he's going to drop a little bit. But I still think he is, like I bought into the fact that he has that role established with Aaron Rogers and he's going to have touchdowns. Certainly more valuable in a standard league than a PPR. Yes, because more often than not, that role means four or less receptions. 10 of 16 games, he had four or less receptions. You don't get the PPR production.

You are waiting for Aaron Rogers to make his moment by moment trip into the red zone and then throw the ball. And he's going to be risky depending on where, you know, where he ends up come draft season. Yes, I agree. The draft price is probably. So regress or impressed. Final word, I'm going to regress on Adams. Mike. I'm going impress. Jason. I'm going to go with an impress, but I think he is still being overdrafted.

All right, that's fair. Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, the regressor in press candidates at the tight-in position. Look, Kyle Rudolph, number two, in a year where, well, you know, Travis Kelsey led the way with a season that was a little bit lower than what you'd expect from the top-tier tight-ins in recent years. Kyle Rudolph followed it up. Number two, 83 catches. PPR.

Gold mine. PPR solution for your tight-in position. You plug them in, you wait for Sam Bradford to pepper him with four or five-yard passes, and you get him in the red zone. Year before, he only had 49 catches. So this was San Bradford, right? This is the magic equation here, was adding San Bradford to Kyle Rudolph, and you'd almost doubled his reception totals. So regress are impressed. Bradford's still there. What do you think about Kyle Rudolph?

What's your vote? I like him. I love Kyle Rudolph, especially with his draft price. I think that the insanity that is a guy who finished number two, people are going to just bury him in drafts. The San Bradford effect is legitimate. This is not the first time that we've seen San Bradford favor his tight end. And you have to take a look at Kyle Rudolph's season.

There is a story to be told with the Minnesota Vikings. And that story is... Once upon a time. In a world. They did not come into the season, hoping that Sam Bradford was going to be their quarterback. Because he wasn't on their team. They had Teddy Bridgewater, who has suffered a catastrophic, highly unfortunate injury, and they went, oh, crap, what are we going to do?

They traded away a one to get Sam Bradford because the Eagles had taken Carson Wentz. And they did that. I mean, this is like a couple minutes before week one was going to start that they had to call up Sam Bradford. They said, don't worry. Because we have Hall of Fame level. Adrian Peterson, he's our running back. We will lean on him. Week three, he died. So the Minnesota Vikings were scrambling, trying to figure out what are we going to do?

for our offense. I mean, it was... Matt Aziata was leading the team cheers. And then you have them trying to figure out who's going to play what role. You have Jerich McKinnon is the pass catcher to start. And then, no, no, we're going to make Aziata the past. They were completely turned around at who was going to do what. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph here is just cruising along having a spectacular season in his first half.

Just his first half production. If he ran that out all season long, it's 64 receptions. This is Rudolph. Yeah. So, like, because I'm saying in the second half, he really heated up. However, in the first half, he was still going to be the tight-in six. This is, this really is told like a good story. Nobody uses Meanwhile better than you do. I like Rudolph, and I'm trying to sell people on him.

Okay? All right. Listen to this because I was going to bring this up if you didn't. I'm glad you have these numbers. They're unbelievable. His second half pace, remember, Sam Bradford pulled up in a stretch limo during the first quarter of the first game. His second half pace, 102 receptions, over 1,000 yards, only six touchdowns, but that easily, easily makes him the tight end one overall. I'm not saying I'm putting him at tight end 1.

What I'm saying is his production is real. His production is sustainable. And Kyle Rudolph or Zacherts.

Kyle Rudolph easily. Easily. If you want to talk regress or impress, I think Kyle Rudolph will continue to impress. He has always been a very talented tight end. I remember years ago, you know, coming into his, whatever it was, second or third season, Andy, you were super high on him. And he has, he has shown in the past that he can, you know, put up there. He was called Rudolph the Red Zone reindeer because he has. By us.

Well, it wasn't just us. Look, I mean, his, he was called around the world. They hailed him as the Red Zone reindeer. On this show, we called himself. But, you know, his sophomore year, he had nine touchdowns. I think he can do it. And I don't remember if this was last show or whether it was on the footcast, but the question was asked about a surprising.

you know, what offense could surprise you. And I think Minnesota is going to take a step forward offensively. And so if there are more red zone opportunities, I like, he's the 10th. I disagree with you guys vehemently. He is a regression candidate of which I am fairly certain. He's a quarterback. I know the San Bradford effect was big, but it ties into the fact that that offense had no running game. Now you bring in Latavius Murray. You have Dalvin Cook. Wait, wait.

You're saying they had no running games, so they solved it with Latavius Murray? In their mind, they did. But they didn't. We know that. And they drafted Delvin Cook. I think with Cook. You had Matt Ozziata last year. You bring in two talented or opportunistic backs. Yeah, okay. Look, one talented, one opportunist. This was an outlier year for Kyle Rudolph. This is not an up and coming tight in that has been sitting there for a year. And you just see the trajectory moving forward. 250 yards, 400 yards, 300 yards, 230, 400.

800? Unless you believe they're building the offense around him, I can't help but say this guy's going from where he was last year, number two, to the bottom half of that top 10 to 12 range with a little bit of a wink in PPR leagues. We need a top six water bet because I think he's a lot. Waterbet. Look, if you want to just go off the last year, or in Mike's case, the second half of the last year,